We simulate every NFL game on opponent-adjusted net EPA — offense and defense on both sides set the projected margin, scoring rates set the total — then post only the handful we have the most conviction in. Every posted game gets a grade and a projected score, and every one is graded against the real result.
Graded games
75.9%
the games we post · B+ or better
Full slate
62.5%
every game · n=1070
Market
67.4%
closing line · it’s better
Margin error
10.5
points, full slate
Accuracy is measured against the actual final score — did we pick the winner, and how many points off was the margin — not against the betting line. Across 2019–2025 the simulator calls 62.5% of all games straight up. The market’s closing line calls 67.4% — the NFL is the most efficient market in sports, so the full slate is worse than the market and we say so. It is a prediction tool, not a betting edge: it does not beat the spread. Analysis and entertainment, 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.
Board went 0-0 · full slate 7-9 straight up
Every game we simulated this week, highest conviction first. The board above is only the ones that cleared B+— here’s the whole week so nothing’s hidden.
BAL
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
GB
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Lamar Jackson
0.04 EPA/att
Jordan Love
The grade is our conviction in our own call — how big the projected margin is. Here is how each grade actually performed across 2019–2025:
Net EPA — opponent-adjusted expected points added on offense and defense, both sides of the ball — sets the projected margin. Scoring rates set the total. Ratings are computed as of that week’s kickoff, using only games already played, so nothing is graded with hindsight. Early in the season a team carries its prior-year rating until it has enough games to stand on its own.
It does not beat the spread. The NFL market is the sharpest in sports. We publish this because the projection and the matchup are interesting and we grade ourselves honestly against the real score — not because it prints money.
Also on our board
Separate from the simulator: situational trends mined from 1999–2026 seasons and validated out-of-sample. Only the ones that actually hold up.
The Sizzlin NFL Simulator is analysis and entertainment — not betting advice or a guaranteed outcome. 21+. 1-800-GAMBLER.
0.18 EPA/att
Derrick Henry◄
0.02 EPA/tch
Josh Jacobs
-0.01 EPA/tch
Zay Flowers
0.31 EPA/tgt
Christian Watson◄
0.38 EPA/tgt
Mark Andrews
0.02 EPA/tgt
Tucker Kraft◄
0.61 EPA/tgt
Good◄
9.6% sack rate
Average
5.6% sack rate
Travis Jones◄
0.7 disrupt/gm
Javon Hargrave
0.4 disrupt/gm
Calais Campbell
0.7 press/gm
Karl Brooks◄
no 2025 data
Roquan Smith◄
0.7 impact/gm
Edgerrin Cooper
0.6 impact/gm
Nate Wiggins◄
0.7 cover/gm
Keisean Nixon
0.7 cover/gm
Malaki Starks
0.5 cover/gm
Evan Williams◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
NE
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
NYJ
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Drake Maye◄
0.24 EPA/att
Geno Smith
-0.12 EPA/att
Rhamondre Stevenson◄
-0.02 EPA/tch
Breece Hall
-0.04 EPA/tch
A.J. Brown◄
0.22 EPA/tgt
Garrett Wilson
-0.02 EPA/tgt
Hunter Henry◄
0.35 EPA/tgt
Kenyon Sadiq
no 2025 data
Average◄
8.7% sack rate
Bad
10.8% sack rate
Cory Durden
0.2 disrupt/gm
Harrison Phillips◄
0.2 disrupt/gm
Christian Barmore
no 2025 data
Will McDonald IV◄
0.9 press/gm
Christian Elliss
0.3 impact/gm
Jamien Sherwood◄
1.0 impact/gm
Carlton Davis III
0.4 cover/gm
Nahshon Wright◄
0.8 cover/gm
Craig Woodson
0.3 cover/gm
Minkah Fitzpatrick◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
PHI
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · four-man rush
BUF
OFF Run-heavy · under-center
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Jalen Hurts
0.05 EPA/att
Josh Allen◄
0.11 EPA/att
Saquon Barkley
-0.08 EPA/tch
James Cook III◄
0.04 EPA/tch
DeVonta Smith◄
0.38 EPA/tgt
DJ Moore
0.12 EPA/tgt
Dallas Goedert
0.35 EPA/tgt
Dalton Kincaid◄
0.57 EPA/tgt
Average
6.6% sack rate
Good◄
7.5% sack rate
Average
no data
Deone Walker◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Jalen Carter
no 2025 data
T.J. Sanders
no 2025 data
Zack Baun◄
1.0 impact/gm
Greg Rousseau
0.7 impact/gm
Quinyon Mitchell◄
0.7 cover/gm
Christian Benford
0.3 cover/gm
Andrew Mukuba
0.4 cover/gm
Cole Bishop◄
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
JAX
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
IND
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Trevor Lawrence
0.05 EPA/att
Daniel Jones◄
0.11 EPA/att
Bhayshul Tuten
-0.03 EPA/tch
Jonathan Taylor◄
0.07 EPA/tch
Brian Thomas Jr.
0.14 EPA/tgt
Alec Pierce◄
0.49 EPA/tgt
Brenton Strange◄
0.39 EPA/tgt
Tyler Warren
0.12 EPA/tgt
Bad
6.8% sack rate
Good◄
5.0% sack rate
DaVon Hamilton
0.2 disrupt/gm
Grover Stewart◄
0.3 disrupt/gm
Josh Hines-Allen◄
1.0 press/gm
Laiatu Latu
0.9 press/gm
Foyesade Oluokun◄
0.9 impact/gm
Akeem Davis-Gaither
0.5 impact/gm
Montaric Brown◄
0.7 cover/gm
Sauce Gardner
0.5 cover/gm
Antonio Johnson◄
0.8 cover/gm
Cam Bynum
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
LA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
ATL
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Matthew Stafford◄
0.19 EPA/att
Tua Tagovailoa
0.03 EPA/att
Kyren Williams◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Bijan Robinson
0.03 EPA/tch
Puka Nacua◄
0.59 EPA/tgt
Drake London
0.17 EPA/tgt
Colby Parkinson
0.17 EPA/tgt
Kyle Pitts Sr.◄
0.18 EPA/tgt
Elite◄
3.7% sack rate
Elite
4.6% sack rate
Poona Ford
0.3 disrupt/gm
Da'Shawn Hand◄
no 2025 data
Kobie Turner
0.6 press/gm
Brandon Dorlus◄
0.8 press/gm
Byron Young◄
1.1 impact/gm
Divine Deablo
0.7 impact/gm
Jaylen Watson
0.4 cover/gm
A.J. Terrell Jr.◄
0.5 cover/gm
Kamren Kinchens
0.6 cover/gm
Jessie Bates III◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
SEA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
CAR
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Sam Darnold◄
0.11 EPA/att
Bryce Young
-0.03 EPA/att
Zach Charbonnet◄
-0.00 EPA/tch
Chuba Hubbard
-0.05 EPA/tch
Jaxon Smith-Njigba◄
0.47 EPA/tgt
Tetairoa McMillan
0.17 EPA/tgt
AJ Barner◄
0.32 EPA/tgt
Tommy Tremble
0.14 EPA/tgt
Average◄
5.3% sack rate
Average
6.4% sack rate
Byron Murphy II◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Bobby Brown III
0.2 disrupt/gm
Leonard Williams◄
0.8 press/gm
Tershawn Wharton
0.2 press/gm
DeMarcus Lawrence◄
0.8 impact/gm
Jaelan Phillips
0.7 impact/gm
Josh Jobe
0.6 cover/gm
Mike Jackson◄
1.0 cover/gm
Ty Okada◄
0.5 cover/gm
Nick Scott
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
HOU
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
LAC
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
C.J. Stroud◄
0.08 EPA/att
Justin Herbert
0.02 EPA/att
David Montgomery◄
0.01 EPA/tch
Omarion Hampton
-0.01 EPA/tch
Nico Collins◄
0.26 EPA/tgt
Ladd McConkey
0.05 EPA/tgt
Dalton Schultz◄
0.29 EPA/tgt
Oronde Gadsden
0.19 EPA/tgt
Average◄
5.1% sack rate
Bad
9.5% sack rate
Tommy Togiai◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Dalvin Tomlinson
no 2025 data
Will Anderson Jr.◄
1.2 press/gm
Teair Tart
no 2025 data
Henry To'oTo'o
0.8 impact/gm
Daiyan Henley◄
0.8 impact/gm
Kamari Lassiter◄
1.0 cover/gm
Cam Hart
0.5 cover/gm
Reed Blankenship
0.4 cover/gm
Derwin James Jr.◄
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
TB
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
MIA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Baker Mayfield
0.00 EPA/att
Malik Willis◄
0.13 EPA/att
Bucky Irving
-0.10 EPA/tch
De'Von Achane◄
0.01 EPA/tch
Emeka Egbuka◄
0.05 EPA/tgt
Malik Washington
-0.10 EPA/tgt
Cade Otton
0.03 EPA/tgt
Greg Dulcich◄
0.33 EPA/tgt
Average
6.4% sack rate
Good◄
7.4% sack rate
Vita Vea◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Kenneth Grant
0.2 disrupt/gm
Elijah Roberts
0.2 press/gm
Chop Robinson◄
no 2025 data
Yaya Diaby
0.9 impact/gm
Jordyn Brooks◄
1.2 impact/gm
Jacob Parrish◄
0.4 cover/gm
Jason Marshall Jr.
0.3 cover/gm
Antoine Winfield Jr.◄
0.6 cover/gm
Dante Trader Jr.
0.2 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
CHI
OFF Balanced · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
SF
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Caleb Williams
0.06 EPA/att
Brock Purdy◄
0.13 EPA/att
D'Andre Swift◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Christian McCaffrey
0.04 EPA/tch
Rome Odunze◄
0.17 EPA/tgt
Mike Evans
0.06 EPA/tgt
Colston Loveland
0.47 EPA/tgt
George Kittle◄
0.52 EPA/tgt
Elite◄
4.0% sack rate
Average
4.5% sack rate
Gervon Dexter Sr.◄
0.7 disrupt/gm
Alfred Collins
0.2 disrupt/gm
Montez Sweat◄
0.9 press/gm
C.J. West
no 2025 data
Devin Bush◄
0.9 impact/gm
Dre Greenlaw
0.4 impact/gm
Tyrique Stevenson◄
0.5 cover/gm
Deommodore Lenoir
0.3 cover/gm
Dillon Thieneman
no 2025 data
Ji'Ayir Brown◄
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
DEN
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
KC
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Bo Nix
0.08 EPA/att
Patrick Mahomes◄
0.10 EPA/att
J.K. Dobbins◄
-0.00 EPA/tch
Kenneth Walker III
-0.02 EPA/tch
Courtland Sutton◄
0.30 EPA/tgt
Rashee Rice
0.15 EPA/tgt
Evan Engram
0.04 EPA/tgt
Travis Kelce◄
0.32 EPA/tgt
Elite◄
3.6% sack rate
Average
7.4% sack rate
D.J. Jones◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Khyiris Tonga
0.1 disrupt/gm
Zach Allen◄
1.1 press/gm
George Karlaftis
0.8 press/gm
Jonathon Cooper◄
0.8 impact/gm
Drue Tranquill
0.7 impact/gm
Riley Moss◄
0.8 cover/gm
L'Jarius Sneed
no 2025 data
Talanoa Hufanga◄
0.7 cover/gm
Alohi Gilman
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
DET
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
MIN
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Jared Goff◄
0.14 EPA/att
Kyler Murray
0.02 EPA/att
Jahmyr Gibbs◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Aaron Jones Sr.
-0.04 EPA/tch
Amon-Ra St. Brown◄
0.28 EPA/tgt
Justin Jefferson
-0.08 EPA/tgt
Sam LaPorta◄
0.53 EPA/tgt
T.J. Hockenson
0.16 EPA/tgt
Good◄
6.3% sack rate
Bad
11.0% sack rate
Alim McNeill
0.3 disrupt/gm
Caleb Banks◄
no 2025 data
Aidan Hutchinson◄
1.3 press/gm
Levi Drake Rodriguez
no 2025 data
Derrick Barnes
0.7 impact/gm
Eric Wilson◄
1.1 impact/gm
D.J. Reed◄
0.5 cover/gm
Isaiah Rodgers
0.2 cover/gm
Kerby Joseph◄
0.6 cover/gm
Joshua Metellus
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
NO
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
TEN
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Tyler Shough◄
0.00 EPA/att
Cam Ward
-0.15 EPA/att
Travis Etienne Jr.◄
-0.03 EPA/tch
Tony Pollard
-0.10 EPA/tch
Chris Olave
0.19 EPA/tgt
Carnell Tate
no 2025 data
Juwan Johnson◄
0.29 EPA/tgt
Gunnar Helm
0.05 EPA/tgt
Bad
7.7% sack rate
Bad◄
8.9% sack rate
Davon Godchaux
0.1 disrupt/gm
Jeffery Simmons◄
1.5 disrupt/gm
Cameron Jordan◄
no 2025 data
Jermaine Johnson II
0.3 press/gm
Kaden Elliss◄
1.0 impact/gm
Cody Barton
0.7 impact/gm
Kool-Aid McKinstry◄
0.9 cover/gm
Alontae Taylor
0.6 cover/gm
Justin Reid
0.5 cover/gm
Amani Hooker◄
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
NYG
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
LV
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Jaxson Dart◄
0.01 EPA/att
Kirk Cousins
-0.00 EPA/att
Cam Skattebo◄
-0.05 EPA/tch
Ashton Jeanty
-0.20 EPA/tch
Malik Nabers
0.04 EPA/tgt
Tre Tucker◄
0.18 EPA/tgt
Isaiah Likely
0.10 EPA/tgt
Brock Bowers◄
0.22 EPA/tgt
Bad◄
8.4% sack rate
Bad
11.1% sack rate
DJ Reader
0.1 disrupt/gm
Adam Butler◄
0.3 disrupt/gm
Shelby Harris
0.2 press/gm
Thomas Booker IV◄
no 2025 data
Brian Burns◄
1.8 impact/gm
Quay Walker
0.9 impact/gm
Dru Phillips◄
0.6 cover/gm
Eric Stokes
0.2 cover/gm
Tyler Nubin
0.3 cover/gm
Isaiah Pola-Mao◄
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
DAL
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
WAS
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Dak Prescott◄
0.14 EPA/att
Jayden Daniels
-0.02 EPA/att
Javonte Williams
-0.03 EPA/tch
Jacory Croskey-Merritt◄
-0.02 EPA/tch
CeeDee Lamb
0.20 EPA/tgt
Terry McLaurin◄
0.35 EPA/tgt
Jake Ferguson◄
0.16 EPA/tgt
Chig Okonkwo
0.13 EPA/tgt
Elite◄
4.7% sack rate
Good
7.3% sack rate
Otito Ogbonnia
0.3 disrupt/gm
Daron Payne◄
0.6 disrupt/gm
Quinnen Williams
no 2025 data
Tim Settle
no 2025 data
Dee Winters◄
0.8 impact/gm
Odafe Oweh
0.7 impact/gm
Cobie Durant
0.5 cover/gm
Mike Sainristil◄
0.7 cover/gm
Malik Hooker
0.2 cover/gm
Nick Cross◄
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
ARI
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
CIN
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Jacoby Brissett
-0.00 EPA/att
Joe Burrow◄
0.08 EPA/att
Jeremiyah Love◄
no 2025 data
Chase Brown
-0.04 EPA/tch
Marvin Harrison Jr.◄
0.30 EPA/tgt
Ja'Marr Chase
0.19 EPA/tgt
Trey McBride◄
0.38 EPA/tgt
Mike Gesicki
0.07 EPA/tgt
Bad
8.3% sack rate
Good◄
5.3% sack rate
Roy Lopez◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Dexter Lawrence II
0.3 disrupt/gm
Josh Sweat◄
no 2025 data
Boye Mafe
0.2 press/gm
Zaven Collins
0.4 impact/gm
Demetrius Knight Jr.◄
0.8 impact/gm
Denzel Burke◄
0.7 cover/gm
Dax Hill
0.5 cover/gm
Budda Baker
0.5 cover/gm
Jordan Battle◄
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
PIT
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
CLE
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Aaron Rodgers
0.04 EPA/att
Deshaun Watson◄
no 2025 data
Jaylen Warren◄
0.03 EPA/tch
Quinshon Judkins
-0.10 EPA/tch
DK Metcalf◄
0.26 EPA/tgt
Jerry Jeudy
-0.24 EPA/tgt
Pat Freiermuth◄
0.31 EPA/tgt
Harold Fannin Jr.
0.01 EPA/tgt
Good◄
5.3% sack rate
Bad
8.4% sack rate
Yahya Black
no 2025 data
Mason Graham◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Cameron Heyward
0.4 press/gm
Jared Verse◄
0.9 press/gm
Payton Wilson
0.7 impact/gm
Carson Schwesinger◄
0.9 impact/gm
Jalen Ramsey
0.4 cover/gm
Tyson Campbell◄
0.7 cover/gm
Jaquan Brisker◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grant Delpit
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
Winner accuracy by grade, 1070 games. A high grade means a clearer mismatch — but the books know it too, so higher accuracy here does not mean a betting edge.
All validated trends · out-of-sample (2020–2026)
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