We simulate every NFL game on opponent-adjusted net EPA — offense and defense on both sides set the projected margin, scoring rates set the total — then post only the handful we have the most conviction in. Every posted game gets a grade and a projected score, and every one is graded against the real result.
Graded games
75.9%
the games we post · B+ or better
Full slate
62.5%
every game · n=1070
Market
67.4%
closing line · it’s better
Margin error
10.5
points, full slate
Accuracy is measured against the actual final score — did we pick the winner, and how many points off was the margin — not against the betting line. Across 2019–2025 the simulator calls 62.5% of all games straight up. The market’s closing line calls 67.4% — the NFL is the most efficient market in sports, so the full slate is worse than the market and we say so. It is a prediction tool, not a betting edge: it does not beat the spread. Analysis and entertainment, 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.
Board went 1-0 · full slate 8-8 straight up
Our 1 highest-conviction calls out of 16 games this week. We post at most 6, and nothing below a B+ — a thin week posts fewer rather than padding the board.
LV
HOU
14
26
Offense
HOU
Defense
HOU
Called it ✓
LV
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
HOU
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Every game we simulated this week, highest conviction first. The board above is only the ones that cleared B+— here’s the whole week so nothing’s hidden.
LV
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
HOU
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Kirk Cousins
-0.00 EPA/att
C.J. Stroud
The grade is our conviction in our own call — how big the projected margin is. Here is how each grade actually performed across 2019–2025:
Net EPA — opponent-adjusted expected points added on offense and defense, both sides of the ball — sets the projected margin. Scoring rates set the total. Ratings are computed as of that week’s kickoff, using only games already played, so nothing is graded with hindsight. Early in the season a team carries its prior-year rating until it has enough games to stand on its own.
It does not beat the spread. The NFL market is the sharpest in sports. We publish this because the projection and the matchup are interesting and we grade ourselves honestly against the real score — not because it prints money.
Also on our board
Separate from the simulator: situational trends mined from 1999–2026 seasons and validated out-of-sample. Only the ones that actually hold up.
The Sizzlin NFL Simulator is analysis and entertainment — not betting advice or a guaranteed outcome. 21+. 1-800-GAMBLER.
Kirk Cousins
-0.00 EPA/att
C.J. Stroud◄
0.08 EPA/att
Ashton Jeanty
-0.20 EPA/tch
David Montgomery◄
0.01 EPA/tch
Tre Tucker
0.18 EPA/tgt
Nico Collins◄
0.26 EPA/tgt
Brock Bowers
0.22 EPA/tgt
Dalton Schultz◄
0.29 EPA/tgt
Bad
11.1% sack rate
Average◄
5.1% sack rate
Adam Butler
0.3 disrupt/gm
Tommy Togiai◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Thomas Booker IV
no 2025 data
Will Anderson Jr.◄
1.2 press/gm
Quay Walker◄
0.9 impact/gm
Henry To'oTo'o
0.8 impact/gm
Eric Stokes
0.2 cover/gm
Kamari Lassiter◄
1.0 cover/gm
Isaiah Pola-Mao◄
0.5 cover/gm
Reed Blankenship
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
0.08 EPA/att
Ashton Jeanty
-0.20 EPA/tch
David Montgomery◄
0.01 EPA/tch
Tre Tucker
0.18 EPA/tgt
Nico Collins◄
0.26 EPA/tgt
Brock Bowers
0.22 EPA/tgt
Dalton Schultz◄
0.29 EPA/tgt
Bad
11.1% sack rate
Average◄
5.1% sack rate
Adam Butler
0.3 disrupt/gm
Tommy Togiai◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Thomas Booker IV
no 2025 data
Will Anderson Jr.◄
1.2 press/gm
Quay Walker◄
0.9 impact/gm
Henry To'oTo'o
0.8 impact/gm
Eric Stokes
0.2 cover/gm
Kamari Lassiter◄
1.0 cover/gm
Isaiah Pola-Mao◄
0.5 cover/gm
Reed Blankenship
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
CIN
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
MIA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Joe Burrow
0.08 EPA/att
Malik Willis◄
0.13 EPA/att
Chase Brown
-0.04 EPA/tch
De'Von Achane◄
0.01 EPA/tch
Ja'Marr Chase◄
0.19 EPA/tgt
Malik Washington
-0.10 EPA/tgt
Mike Gesicki
0.07 EPA/tgt
Greg Dulcich◄
0.33 EPA/tgt
Good
5.3% sack rate
Good◄
7.4% sack rate
Dexter Lawrence II◄
0.3 disrupt/gm
Kenneth Grant
0.2 disrupt/gm
Boye Mafe
0.2 press/gm
Chop Robinson◄
no 2025 data
Demetrius Knight Jr.
0.8 impact/gm
Jordyn Brooks◄
1.2 impact/gm
Dax Hill◄
0.5 cover/gm
Jason Marshall Jr.
0.3 cover/gm
Jordan Battle◄
0.7 cover/gm
Dante Trader Jr.
0.2 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
NYJ
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
NO
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Geno Smith
-0.12 EPA/att
Tyler Shough◄
0.00 EPA/att
Breece Hall
-0.04 EPA/tch
Travis Etienne Jr.◄
-0.03 EPA/tch
Garrett Wilson
-0.02 EPA/tgt
Chris Olave◄
0.19 EPA/tgt
Kenyon Sadiq
no 2025 data
Juwan Johnson◄
0.29 EPA/tgt
Bad◄
10.8% sack rate
Bad
7.7% sack rate
Harrison Phillips◄
0.2 disrupt/gm
Davon Godchaux
0.1 disrupt/gm
Will McDonald IV◄
0.9 press/gm
Cameron Jordan
no 2025 data
Jamien Sherwood◄
1.0 impact/gm
Kaden Elliss
1.0 impact/gm
Nahshon Wright
0.8 cover/gm
Kool-Aid McKinstry◄
0.9 cover/gm
Minkah Fitzpatrick◄
0.6 cover/gm
Justin Reid
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
SF
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
IND
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Brock Purdy◄
0.13 EPA/att
Daniel Jones
0.11 EPA/att
Christian McCaffrey
0.04 EPA/tch
Jonathan Taylor◄
0.07 EPA/tch
Mike Evans
0.06 EPA/tgt
Alec Pierce◄
0.49 EPA/tgt
George Kittle◄
0.52 EPA/tgt
Tyler Warren
0.12 EPA/tgt
Average
4.5% sack rate
Good◄
5.0% sack rate
Alfred Collins
0.2 disrupt/gm
Grover Stewart◄
0.3 disrupt/gm
C.J. West
no 2025 data
Laiatu Latu◄
0.9 press/gm
Dre Greenlaw
0.4 impact/gm
Akeem Davis-Gaither◄
0.5 impact/gm
Deommodore Lenoir
0.3 cover/gm
Sauce Gardner◄
0.5 cover/gm
Ji'Ayir Brown
0.5 cover/gm
Cam Bynum◄
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
PIT
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
DET
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
Aaron Rodgers
0.04 EPA/att
Jared Goff◄
0.14 EPA/att
Jaylen Warren
0.03 EPA/tch
Jahmyr Gibbs◄
0.04 EPA/tch
DK Metcalf
0.26 EPA/tgt
Amon-Ra St. Brown◄
0.28 EPA/tgt
Pat Freiermuth
0.31 EPA/tgt
Sam LaPorta◄
0.53 EPA/tgt
Good
5.3% sack rate
Good◄
6.3% sack rate
Yahya Black◄
no 2025 data
Alim McNeill
0.3 disrupt/gm
Cameron Heyward
0.4 press/gm
Aidan Hutchinson◄
1.3 press/gm
Payton Wilson◄
0.7 impact/gm
Derrick Barnes
0.7 impact/gm
Jalen Ramsey
0.4 cover/gm
D.J. Reed◄
0.5 cover/gm
Jaquan Brisker
0.6 cover/gm
Kerby Joseph◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
KC
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
TEN
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Patrick Mahomes◄
0.10 EPA/att
Cam Ward
-0.15 EPA/att
Kenneth Walker III◄
-0.02 EPA/tch
Tony Pollard
-0.10 EPA/tch
Rashee Rice
0.15 EPA/tgt
Carnell Tate◄
no 2025 data
Travis Kelce◄
0.32 EPA/tgt
Gunnar Helm
0.05 EPA/tgt
Average◄
7.4% sack rate
Bad
8.9% sack rate
Khyiris Tonga
0.1 disrupt/gm
Jeffery Simmons◄
1.5 disrupt/gm
George Karlaftis◄
0.8 press/gm
Jermaine Johnson II
0.3 press/gm
Drue Tranquill
0.7 impact/gm
Cody Barton◄
0.7 impact/gm
L'Jarius Sneed
no 2025 data
Alontae Taylor◄
0.6 cover/gm
Alohi Gilman
0.5 cover/gm
Amani Hooker◄
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
JAX
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
DEN
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
Trevor Lawrence
0.05 EPA/att
Bo Nix◄
0.08 EPA/att
Bhayshul Tuten
-0.03 EPA/tch
J.K. Dobbins◄
-0.00 EPA/tch
Brian Thomas Jr.
0.14 EPA/tgt
Courtland Sutton◄
0.30 EPA/tgt
Brenton Strange◄
0.39 EPA/tgt
Evan Engram
0.04 EPA/tgt
Bad
6.8% sack rate
Elite◄
3.6% sack rate
DaVon Hamilton
0.2 disrupt/gm
D.J. Jones◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Josh Hines-Allen
1.0 press/gm
Zach Allen◄
1.1 press/gm
Foyesade Oluokun◄
0.9 impact/gm
Jonathon Cooper
0.8 impact/gm
Montaric Brown
0.7 cover/gm
Riley Moss◄
0.8 cover/gm
Antonio Johnson◄
0.8 cover/gm
Talanoa Hufanga
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
PHI
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · four-man rush
WAS
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Jalen Hurts◄
0.05 EPA/att
Jayden Daniels
-0.02 EPA/att
Saquon Barkley
-0.08 EPA/tch
Jacory Croskey-Merritt◄
-0.02 EPA/tch
DeVonta Smith◄
0.38 EPA/tgt
Terry McLaurin
0.35 EPA/tgt
Dallas Goedert◄
0.35 EPA/tgt
Chig Okonkwo
0.13 EPA/tgt
Average
6.6% sack rate
Good◄
7.3% sack rate
Average
no data
Daron Payne◄
0.6 disrupt/gm
Jalen Carter
no 2025 data
Tim Settle
no 2025 data
Zack Baun◄
1.0 impact/gm
Odafe Oweh
0.7 impact/gm
Quinyon Mitchell
0.7 cover/gm
Mike Sainristil◄
0.7 cover/gm
Andrew Mukuba
0.4 cover/gm
Nick Cross◄
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
BUF
OFF Run-heavy · under-center
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
CLE
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Josh Allen◄
0.11 EPA/att
Deshaun Watson
no 2025 data
James Cook III◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Quinshon Judkins
-0.10 EPA/tch
DJ Moore◄
0.12 EPA/tgt
Jerry Jeudy
-0.24 EPA/tgt
Dalton Kincaid◄
0.57 EPA/tgt
Harold Fannin Jr.
0.01 EPA/tgt
Good◄
7.5% sack rate
Bad
8.4% sack rate
Deone Walker◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Mason Graham
0.4 disrupt/gm
T.J. Sanders
no 2025 data
Jared Verse◄
0.9 press/gm
Greg Rousseau
0.7 impact/gm
Carson Schwesinger◄
0.9 impact/gm
Christian Benford
0.3 cover/gm
Tyson Campbell◄
0.7 cover/gm
Cole Bishop◄
0.7 cover/gm
Grant Delpit
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
MIN
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
NYG
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Kyler Murray◄
0.02 EPA/att
Jaxson Dart
0.01 EPA/att
Aaron Jones Sr.◄
-0.04 EPA/tch
Cam Skattebo
-0.05 EPA/tch
Justin Jefferson
-0.08 EPA/tgt
Malik Nabers◄
0.04 EPA/tgt
T.J. Hockenson◄
0.16 EPA/tgt
Isaiah Likely
0.10 EPA/tgt
Bad
11.0% sack rate
Bad◄
8.4% sack rate
Caleb Banks◄
no 2025 data
DJ Reader
0.1 disrupt/gm
Levi Drake Rodriguez◄
no 2025 data
Shelby Harris
0.2 press/gm
Eric Wilson
1.1 impact/gm
Brian Burns◄
1.8 impact/gm
Isaiah Rodgers
0.2 cover/gm
Dru Phillips◄
0.6 cover/gm
Joshua Metellus◄
0.6 cover/gm
Tyler Nubin
0.3 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
GB
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
CHI
OFF Balanced · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
Jordan Love◄
0.18 EPA/att
Caleb Williams
0.06 EPA/att
Josh Jacobs
-0.01 EPA/tch
D'Andre Swift◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Christian Watson◄
0.38 EPA/tgt
Rome Odunze
0.17 EPA/tgt
Tucker Kraft◄
0.61 EPA/tgt
Colston Loveland
0.47 EPA/tgt
Average
5.6% sack rate
Elite◄
4.0% sack rate
Javon Hargrave
0.4 disrupt/gm
Gervon Dexter Sr.◄
0.7 disrupt/gm
Karl Brooks
no 2025 data
Montez Sweat◄
0.9 press/gm
Edgerrin Cooper
0.6 impact/gm
Devin Bush◄
0.9 impact/gm
Keisean Nixon◄
0.7 cover/gm
Tyrique Stevenson
0.5 cover/gm
Evan Williams◄
0.6 cover/gm
Dillon Thieneman
no 2025 data
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
LA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
SEA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Matthew Stafford◄
0.19 EPA/att
Sam Darnold
0.11 EPA/att
Kyren Williams◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Zach Charbonnet
-0.00 EPA/tch
Puka Nacua◄
0.59 EPA/tgt
Jaxon Smith-Njigba
0.47 EPA/tgt
Colby Parkinson
0.17 EPA/tgt
AJ Barner◄
0.32 EPA/tgt
Elite◄
3.7% sack rate
Average
5.3% sack rate
Poona Ford
0.3 disrupt/gm
Byron Murphy II◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Kobie Turner
0.6 press/gm
Leonard Williams◄
0.8 press/gm
Byron Young◄
1.1 impact/gm
DeMarcus Lawrence
0.8 impact/gm
Jaylen Watson
0.4 cover/gm
Josh Jobe◄
0.6 cover/gm
Kamren Kinchens◄
0.6 cover/gm
Ty Okada
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
ATL
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
ARI
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Tua Tagovailoa◄
0.03 EPA/att
Jacoby Brissett
-0.00 EPA/att
Bijan Robinson◄
0.03 EPA/tch
Jeremiyah Love
no 2025 data
Drake London
0.17 EPA/tgt
Marvin Harrison Jr.◄
0.30 EPA/tgt
Kyle Pitts Sr.
0.18 EPA/tgt
Trey McBride◄
0.38 EPA/tgt
Elite◄
4.6% sack rate
Bad
8.3% sack rate
Da'Shawn Hand
no 2025 data
Roy Lopez◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Brandon Dorlus
0.8 press/gm
Josh Sweat◄
no 2025 data
Divine Deablo◄
0.7 impact/gm
Zaven Collins
0.4 impact/gm
A.J. Terrell Jr.
0.5 cover/gm
Denzel Burke◄
0.7 cover/gm
Jessie Bates III◄
0.6 cover/gm
Budda Baker
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
TB
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
CAR
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Baker Mayfield◄
0.00 EPA/att
Bryce Young
-0.03 EPA/att
Bucky Irving
-0.10 EPA/tch
Chuba Hubbard◄
-0.05 EPA/tch
Emeka Egbuka
0.05 EPA/tgt
Tetairoa McMillan◄
0.17 EPA/tgt
Cade Otton
0.03 EPA/tgt
Tommy Tremble◄
0.14 EPA/tgt
Average
6.4% sack rate
Average◄
6.4% sack rate
Vita Vea◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Bobby Brown III
0.2 disrupt/gm
Elijah Roberts◄
0.2 press/gm
Tershawn Wharton
0.2 press/gm
Yaya Diaby◄
0.9 impact/gm
Jaelan Phillips
0.7 impact/gm
Jacob Parrish
0.4 cover/gm
Mike Jackson◄
1.0 cover/gm
Antoine Winfield Jr.◄
0.6 cover/gm
Nick Scott
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
LAC
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
DAL
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Justin Herbert
0.02 EPA/att
Dak Prescott◄
0.14 EPA/att
Omarion Hampton◄
-0.01 EPA/tch
Javonte Williams
-0.03 EPA/tch
Ladd McConkey
0.05 EPA/tgt
CeeDee Lamb◄
0.20 EPA/tgt
Oronde Gadsden◄
0.19 EPA/tgt
Jake Ferguson
0.16 EPA/tgt
Bad
9.5% sack rate
Elite◄
4.7% sack rate
Dalvin Tomlinson◄
no 2025 data
Otito Ogbonnia
0.3 disrupt/gm
Teair Tart
no 2025 data
Quinnen Williams
no 2025 data
Daiyan Henley
0.8 impact/gm
Dee Winters◄
0.8 impact/gm
Cam Hart◄
0.5 cover/gm
Cobie Durant
0.5 cover/gm
Derwin James Jr.◄
0.7 cover/gm
Malik Hooker
0.2 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
NE
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
BAL
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Drake Maye◄
0.24 EPA/att
Lamar Jackson
0.04 EPA/att
Rhamondre Stevenson
-0.02 EPA/tch
Derrick Henry◄
0.02 EPA/tch
A.J. Brown
0.22 EPA/tgt
Zay Flowers◄
0.31 EPA/tgt
Hunter Henry◄
0.35 EPA/tgt
Mark Andrews
0.02 EPA/tgt
Average
8.7% sack rate
Good◄
9.6% sack rate
Cory Durden
0.2 disrupt/gm
Travis Jones◄
0.7 disrupt/gm
Christian Barmore◄
no 2025 data
Calais Campbell
0.7 press/gm
Christian Elliss
0.3 impact/gm
Roquan Smith◄
0.7 impact/gm
Carlton Davis III
0.4 cover/gm
Nate Wiggins◄
0.7 cover/gm
Craig Woodson
0.3 cover/gm
Malaki Starks◄
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
Winner accuracy by grade, 1070 games. A high grade means a clearer mismatch — but the books know it too, so higher accuracy here does not mean a betting edge.
All validated trends · out-of-sample (2020–2026)
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