We simulate every NFL game on opponent-adjusted net EPA — offense and defense on both sides set the projected margin, scoring rates set the total — then post only the handful we have the most conviction in. Every posted game gets a grade and a projected score, and every one is graded against the real result.
Graded games
75.9%
the games we post · B+ or better
Full slate
62.5%
every game · n=1070
Market
67.4%
closing line · it’s better
Margin error
10.5
points, full slate
Accuracy is measured against the actual final score — did we pick the winner, and how many points off was the margin — not against the betting line. Across 2019–2025 the simulator calls 62.5% of all games straight up. The market’s closing line calls 67.4% — the NFL is the most efficient market in sports, so the full slate is worse than the market and we say so. It is a prediction tool, not a betting edge: it does not beat the spread. Analysis and entertainment, 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.
Board went 3-0 · full slate 11-5 straight up
Our 3 highest-conviction calls out of 16 games this week. We post at most 6, and nothing below a B+ — a thin week posts fewer rather than padding the board.
LV
PHI
16
26
Offense
PHI
Defense
PHI
Called it ✓
LV
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
PHI
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · four-man rush
Every game we simulated this week, highest conviction first. The board above is only the ones that cleared B+— here’s the whole week so nothing’s hidden.
LV
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
PHI
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · four-man rush
Kirk Cousins
-0.00 EPA/att
Jalen Hurts◄
The grade is our conviction in our own call — how big the projected margin is. Here is how each grade actually performed across 2019–2025:
Net EPA — opponent-adjusted expected points added on offense and defense, both sides of the ball — sets the projected margin. Scoring rates set the total. Ratings are computed as of that week’s kickoff, using only games already played, so nothing is graded with hindsight. Early in the season a team carries its prior-year rating until it has enough games to stand on its own.
It does not beat the spread. The NFL market is the sharpest in sports. We publish this because the projection and the matchup are interesting and we grade ourselves honestly against the real score — not because it prints money.
Also on our board
Separate from the simulator: situational trends mined from 1999–2026 seasons and validated out-of-sample. Only the ones that actually hold up.
The Sizzlin NFL Simulator is analysis and entertainment — not betting advice or a guaranteed outcome. 21+. 1-800-GAMBLER.
Kirk Cousins
-0.00 EPA/att
Jalen Hurts◄
0.05 EPA/att
Ashton Jeanty
-0.20 EPA/tch
Saquon Barkley◄
-0.08 EPA/tch
Tre Tucker
0.18 EPA/tgt
DeVonta Smith◄
0.38 EPA/tgt
Brock Bowers
0.22 EPA/tgt
Dallas Goedert◄
0.35 EPA/tgt
Bad
11.1% sack rate
Average◄
6.6% sack rate
Adam Butler
0.3 disrupt/gm
Average◄
no data
Thomas Booker IV
no 2025 data
Jalen Carter
no 2025 data
Quay Walker
0.9 impact/gm
Zack Baun◄
1.0 impact/gm
Eric Stokes
0.2 cover/gm
Quinyon Mitchell◄
0.7 cover/gm
Isaiah Pola-Mao◄
0.5 cover/gm
Andrew Mukuba
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
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0.05 EPA/att
Ashton Jeanty
-0.20 EPA/tch
Saquon Barkley◄
-0.08 EPA/tch
Tre Tucker
0.18 EPA/tgt
DeVonta Smith◄
0.38 EPA/tgt
Brock Bowers
0.22 EPA/tgt
Dallas Goedert◄
0.35 EPA/tgt
Bad
11.1% sack rate
Average◄
6.6% sack rate
Adam Butler
0.3 disrupt/gm
Average◄
no data
Thomas Booker IV
no 2025 data
Jalen Carter
no 2025 data
Quay Walker
0.9 impact/gm
Zack Baun◄
1.0 impact/gm
Eric Stokes
0.2 cover/gm
Quinyon Mitchell◄
0.7 cover/gm
Isaiah Pola-Mao◄
0.5 cover/gm
Andrew Mukuba
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
TEN
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
SF
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Cam Ward
-0.15 EPA/att
Brock Purdy◄
0.13 EPA/att
Tony Pollard
-0.10 EPA/tch
Christian McCaffrey◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Carnell Tate◄
no 2025 data
Mike Evans
0.06 EPA/tgt
Gunnar Helm
0.05 EPA/tgt
George Kittle◄
0.52 EPA/tgt
Bad
8.9% sack rate
Average◄
4.5% sack rate
Jeffery Simmons◄
1.5 disrupt/gm
Alfred Collins
0.2 disrupt/gm
Jermaine Johnson II
0.3 press/gm
C.J. West◄
no 2025 data
Cody Barton◄
0.7 impact/gm
Dre Greenlaw
0.4 impact/gm
Alontae Taylor◄
0.6 cover/gm
Deommodore Lenoir
0.3 cover/gm
Amani Hooker
0.5 cover/gm
Ji'Ayir Brown◄
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
NYJ
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
JAX
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Geno Smith
-0.12 EPA/att
Trevor Lawrence◄
0.05 EPA/att
Breece Hall
-0.04 EPA/tch
Bhayshul Tuten◄
-0.03 EPA/tch
Garrett Wilson
-0.02 EPA/tgt
Brian Thomas Jr.◄
0.14 EPA/tgt
Kenyon Sadiq
no 2025 data
Brenton Strange◄
0.39 EPA/tgt
Bad
10.8% sack rate
Bad◄
6.8% sack rate
Harrison Phillips◄
0.2 disrupt/gm
DaVon Hamilton
0.2 disrupt/gm
Will McDonald IV
0.9 press/gm
Josh Hines-Allen◄
1.0 press/gm
Jamien Sherwood◄
1.0 impact/gm
Foyesade Oluokun
0.9 impact/gm
Nahshon Wright◄
0.8 cover/gm
Montaric Brown
0.7 cover/gm
Minkah Fitzpatrick
0.6 cover/gm
Antonio Johnson◄
0.8 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
ARI
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
HOU
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Jacoby Brissett
-0.00 EPA/att
C.J. Stroud◄
0.08 EPA/att
Jeremiyah Love
no 2025 data
David Montgomery◄
0.01 EPA/tch
Marvin Harrison Jr.◄
0.30 EPA/tgt
Nico Collins
0.26 EPA/tgt
Trey McBride◄
0.38 EPA/tgt
Dalton Schultz
0.29 EPA/tgt
Bad
8.3% sack rate
Average◄
5.1% sack rate
Roy Lopez
0.4 disrupt/gm
Tommy Togiai◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Josh Sweat
no 2025 data
Will Anderson Jr.◄
1.2 press/gm
Zaven Collins
0.4 impact/gm
Henry To'oTo'o◄
0.8 impact/gm
Denzel Burke
0.7 cover/gm
Kamari Lassiter◄
1.0 cover/gm
Budda Baker◄
0.5 cover/gm
Reed Blankenship
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
CLE
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
CHI
OFF Balanced · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
Deshaun Watson
no 2025 data
Caleb Williams◄
0.06 EPA/att
Quinshon Judkins
-0.10 EPA/tch
D'Andre Swift◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Jerry Jeudy
-0.24 EPA/tgt
Rome Odunze◄
0.17 EPA/tgt
Harold Fannin Jr.
0.01 EPA/tgt
Colston Loveland◄
0.47 EPA/tgt
Bad
8.4% sack rate
Elite◄
4.0% sack rate
Mason Graham
0.4 disrupt/gm
Gervon Dexter Sr.◄
0.7 disrupt/gm
Jared Verse◄
0.9 press/gm
Montez Sweat
0.9 press/gm
Carson Schwesinger
0.9 impact/gm
Devin Bush◄
0.9 impact/gm
Tyson Campbell◄
0.7 cover/gm
Tyrique Stevenson
0.5 cover/gm
Grant Delpit
0.4 cover/gm
Dillon Thieneman◄
no 2025 data
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
DET
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
LA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Jared Goff
0.14 EPA/att
Matthew Stafford◄
0.19 EPA/att
Jahmyr Gibbs◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Kyren Williams
0.04 EPA/tch
Amon-Ra St. Brown
0.28 EPA/tgt
Puka Nacua◄
0.59 EPA/tgt
Sam LaPorta◄
0.53 EPA/tgt
Colby Parkinson
0.17 EPA/tgt
Good
6.3% sack rate
Elite◄
3.7% sack rate
Alim McNeill
0.3 disrupt/gm
Poona Ford◄
0.3 disrupt/gm
Aidan Hutchinson◄
1.3 press/gm
Kobie Turner
0.6 press/gm
Derrick Barnes
0.7 impact/gm
Byron Young◄
1.1 impact/gm
D.J. Reed◄
0.5 cover/gm
Jaylen Watson
0.4 cover/gm
Kerby Joseph◄
0.6 cover/gm
Kamren Kinchens
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
LAC
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
KC
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Justin Herbert
0.02 EPA/att
Patrick Mahomes◄
0.10 EPA/att
Omarion Hampton◄
-0.01 EPA/tch
Kenneth Walker III
-0.02 EPA/tch
Ladd McConkey
0.05 EPA/tgt
Rashee Rice◄
0.15 EPA/tgt
Oronde Gadsden
0.19 EPA/tgt
Travis Kelce◄
0.32 EPA/tgt
Bad
9.5% sack rate
Average◄
7.4% sack rate
Dalvin Tomlinson◄
no 2025 data
Khyiris Tonga
0.1 disrupt/gm
Teair Tart
no 2025 data
George Karlaftis
0.8 press/gm
Daiyan Henley◄
0.8 impact/gm
Drue Tranquill
0.7 impact/gm
Cam Hart
0.5 cover/gm
L'Jarius Sneed◄
no 2025 data
Derwin James Jr.◄
0.7 cover/gm
Alohi Gilman
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
MIN
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
DAL
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Kyler Murray
0.02 EPA/att
Dak Prescott◄
0.14 EPA/att
Aaron Jones Sr.
-0.04 EPA/tch
Javonte Williams◄
-0.03 EPA/tch
Justin Jefferson
-0.08 EPA/tgt
CeeDee Lamb◄
0.20 EPA/tgt
T.J. Hockenson◄
0.16 EPA/tgt
Jake Ferguson
0.16 EPA/tgt
Bad
11.0% sack rate
Elite◄
4.7% sack rate
Caleb Banks◄
no 2025 data
Otito Ogbonnia
0.3 disrupt/gm
Levi Drake Rodriguez
no 2025 data
Quinnen Williams
no 2025 data
Eric Wilson◄
1.1 impact/gm
Dee Winters
0.8 impact/gm
Isaiah Rodgers
0.2 cover/gm
Cobie Durant◄
0.5 cover/gm
Joshua Metellus◄
0.6 cover/gm
Malik Hooker
0.2 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
WAS
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
NYG
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Jayden Daniels
-0.02 EPA/att
Jaxson Dart◄
0.01 EPA/att
Jacory Croskey-Merritt◄
-0.02 EPA/tch
Cam Skattebo
-0.05 EPA/tch
Terry McLaurin◄
0.35 EPA/tgt
Malik Nabers
0.04 EPA/tgt
Chig Okonkwo◄
0.13 EPA/tgt
Isaiah Likely
0.10 EPA/tgt
Good◄
7.3% sack rate
Bad
8.4% sack rate
Daron Payne◄
0.6 disrupt/gm
DJ Reader
0.1 disrupt/gm
Tim Settle◄
no 2025 data
Shelby Harris
0.2 press/gm
Odafe Oweh
0.7 impact/gm
Brian Burns◄
1.8 impact/gm
Mike Sainristil◄
0.7 cover/gm
Dru Phillips
0.6 cover/gm
Nick Cross◄
0.5 cover/gm
Tyler Nubin
0.3 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
ATL
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
TB
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Tua Tagovailoa◄
0.03 EPA/att
Baker Mayfield
0.00 EPA/att
Bijan Robinson◄
0.03 EPA/tch
Bucky Irving
-0.10 EPA/tch
Drake London◄
0.17 EPA/tgt
Emeka Egbuka
0.05 EPA/tgt
Kyle Pitts Sr.◄
0.18 EPA/tgt
Cade Otton
0.03 EPA/tgt
Elite◄
4.6% sack rate
Average
6.4% sack rate
Da'Shawn Hand
no 2025 data
Vita Vea◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Brandon Dorlus◄
0.8 press/gm
Elijah Roberts
0.2 press/gm
Divine Deablo
0.7 impact/gm
Yaya Diaby◄
0.9 impact/gm
A.J. Terrell Jr.◄
0.5 cover/gm
Jacob Parrish
0.4 cover/gm
Jessie Bates III◄
0.6 cover/gm
Antoine Winfield Jr.
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
MIA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
PIT
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Malik Willis◄
0.13 EPA/att
Aaron Rodgers
0.04 EPA/att
De'Von Achane
0.01 EPA/tch
Jaylen Warren◄
0.03 EPA/tch
Malik Washington
-0.10 EPA/tgt
DK Metcalf◄
0.26 EPA/tgt
Greg Dulcich◄
0.33 EPA/tgt
Pat Freiermuth
0.31 EPA/tgt
Good◄
7.4% sack rate
Good
5.3% sack rate
Kenneth Grant
0.2 disrupt/gm
Yahya Black◄
no 2025 data
Chop Robinson◄
no 2025 data
Cameron Heyward
0.4 press/gm
Jordyn Brooks◄
1.2 impact/gm
Payton Wilson
0.7 impact/gm
Jason Marshall Jr.
0.3 cover/gm
Jalen Ramsey◄
0.4 cover/gm
Dante Trader Jr.
0.2 cover/gm
Jaquan Brisker◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
IND
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
SEA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Daniel Jones◄
0.11 EPA/att
Sam Darnold
0.11 EPA/att
Jonathan Taylor◄
0.07 EPA/tch
Zach Charbonnet
-0.00 EPA/tch
Alec Pierce◄
0.49 EPA/tgt
Jaxon Smith-Njigba
0.47 EPA/tgt
Tyler Warren
0.12 EPA/tgt
AJ Barner◄
0.32 EPA/tgt
Good◄
5.0% sack rate
Average
5.3% sack rate
Grover Stewart
0.3 disrupt/gm
Byron Murphy II◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Laiatu Latu◄
0.9 press/gm
Leonard Williams
0.8 press/gm
Akeem Davis-Gaither
0.5 impact/gm
DeMarcus Lawrence◄
0.8 impact/gm
Sauce Gardner
0.5 cover/gm
Josh Jobe◄
0.6 cover/gm
Cam Bynum◄
0.7 cover/gm
Ty Okada
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
CAR
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
NO
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Bryce Young
-0.03 EPA/att
Tyler Shough◄
0.00 EPA/att
Chuba Hubbard
-0.05 EPA/tch
Travis Etienne Jr.◄
-0.03 EPA/tch
Tetairoa McMillan
0.17 EPA/tgt
Chris Olave◄
0.19 EPA/tgt
Tommy Tremble
0.14 EPA/tgt
Juwan Johnson◄
0.29 EPA/tgt
Average◄
6.4% sack rate
Bad
7.7% sack rate
Bobby Brown III◄
0.2 disrupt/gm
Davon Godchaux
0.1 disrupt/gm
Tershawn Wharton
0.2 press/gm
Cameron Jordan◄
no 2025 data
Jaelan Phillips
0.7 impact/gm
Kaden Elliss◄
1.0 impact/gm
Mike Jackson◄
1.0 cover/gm
Kool-Aid McKinstry
0.9 cover/gm
Nick Scott
0.4 cover/gm
Justin Reid◄
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
GB
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
DEN
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
Jordan Love◄
0.18 EPA/att
Bo Nix
0.08 EPA/att
Josh Jacobs
-0.01 EPA/tch
J.K. Dobbins◄
-0.00 EPA/tch
Christian Watson◄
0.38 EPA/tgt
Courtland Sutton
0.30 EPA/tgt
Tucker Kraft◄
0.61 EPA/tgt
Evan Engram
0.04 EPA/tgt
Average
5.6% sack rate
Elite◄
3.6% sack rate
Javon Hargrave◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
D.J. Jones
0.4 disrupt/gm
Karl Brooks
no 2025 data
Zach Allen◄
1.1 press/gm
Edgerrin Cooper
0.6 impact/gm
Jonathon Cooper◄
0.8 impact/gm
Keisean Nixon
0.7 cover/gm
Riley Moss◄
0.8 cover/gm
Evan Williams
0.6 cover/gm
Talanoa Hufanga◄
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
BUF
OFF Run-heavy · under-center
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
NE
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Josh Allen
0.11 EPA/att
Drake Maye◄
0.24 EPA/att
James Cook III◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Rhamondre Stevenson
-0.02 EPA/tch
DJ Moore
0.12 EPA/tgt
A.J. Brown◄
0.22 EPA/tgt
Dalton Kincaid◄
0.57 EPA/tgt
Hunter Henry
0.35 EPA/tgt
Good◄
7.5% sack rate
Average
8.7% sack rate
Deone Walker◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Cory Durden
0.2 disrupt/gm
T.J. Sanders
no 2025 data
Christian Barmore
no 2025 data
Greg Rousseau◄
0.7 impact/gm
Christian Elliss
0.3 impact/gm
Christian Benford
0.3 cover/gm
Carlton Davis III◄
0.4 cover/gm
Cole Bishop◄
0.7 cover/gm
Craig Woodson
0.3 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
BAL
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
CIN
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Lamar Jackson
0.04 EPA/att
Joe Burrow◄
0.08 EPA/att
Derrick Henry◄
0.02 EPA/tch
Chase Brown
-0.04 EPA/tch
Zay Flowers◄
0.31 EPA/tgt
Ja'Marr Chase
0.19 EPA/tgt
Mark Andrews
0.02 EPA/tgt
Mike Gesicki◄
0.07 EPA/tgt
Good◄
9.6% sack rate
Good
5.3% sack rate
Travis Jones◄
0.7 disrupt/gm
Dexter Lawrence II
0.3 disrupt/gm
Calais Campbell◄
0.7 press/gm
Boye Mafe
0.2 press/gm
Roquan Smith
0.7 impact/gm
Demetrius Knight Jr.◄
0.8 impact/gm
Nate Wiggins◄
0.7 cover/gm
Dax Hill
0.5 cover/gm
Malaki Starks
0.5 cover/gm
Jordan Battle◄
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
Winner accuracy by grade, 1070 games. A high grade means a clearer mismatch — but the books know it too, so higher accuracy here does not mean a betting edge.
All validated trends · out-of-sample (2020–2026)
NFL · Members
The full board, confidence ratings, and daily plays — plus the complete track record. New plays every morning. The track record and featured picks above stay free.
NFL Pass
$9.99/mo
Just NFL
All-AccessBest value
$29.99/mo
All 5 sports
Secure checkout via Stripe. Cancel anytime. 21+. Bet responsibly.
