We simulate every NFL game on opponent-adjusted net EPA — offense and defense on both sides set the projected margin, scoring rates set the total — then post only the handful we have the most conviction in. Every posted game gets a grade and a projected score, and every one is graded against the real result.
Graded games
75.9%
the games we post · B+ or better
Full slate
62.5%
every game · n=1070
Market
67.4%
closing line · it’s better
Margin error
10.5
points, full slate
Accuracy is measured against the actual final score — did we pick the winner, and how many points off was the margin — not against the betting line. Across 2019–2025 the simulator calls 62.5% of all games straight up. The market’s closing line calls 67.4% — the NFL is the most efficient market in sports, so the full slate is worse than the market and we say so. It is a prediction tool, not a betting edge: it does not beat the spread. Analysis and entertainment, 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.
Board went 1-0 · full slate 8-6 straight up
Our 1 highest-conviction calls out of 14 games this week. We post at most 6, and nothing below a B+ — a thin week posts fewer rather than padding the board.
CIN
BUF
21
31
Offense
BUF
Defense
BUF
Called it ✓
CIN
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
BUF
Run-heavy · under-center
Every game we simulated this week, highest conviction first. The board above is only the ones that cleared B+— here’s the whole week so nothing’s hidden.
CIN
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
BUF
OFF Run-heavy · under-center
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Joe Burrow
0.08 EPA/att
Josh Allen
The grade is our conviction in our own call — how big the projected margin is. Here is how each grade actually performed across 2019–2025:
Net EPA — opponent-adjusted expected points added on offense and defense, both sides of the ball — sets the projected margin. Scoring rates set the total. Ratings are computed as of that week’s kickoff, using only games already played, so nothing is graded with hindsight. Early in the season a team carries its prior-year rating until it has enough games to stand on its own.
It does not beat the spread. The NFL market is the sharpest in sports. We publish this because the projection and the matchup are interesting and we grade ourselves honestly against the real score — not because it prints money.
Also on our board
Separate from the simulator: situational trends mined from 1999–2026 seasons and validated out-of-sample. Only the ones that actually hold up.
The Sizzlin NFL Simulator is analysis and entertainment — not betting advice or a guaranteed outcome. 21+. 1-800-GAMBLER.
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Joe Burrow
0.08 EPA/att
Josh Allen◄
0.11 EPA/att
Chase Brown
-0.04 EPA/tch
James Cook III◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Ja'Marr Chase◄
0.19 EPA/tgt
DJ Moore
0.12 EPA/tgt
Mike Gesicki
0.07 EPA/tgt
Dalton Kincaid◄
0.57 EPA/tgt
Good
5.3% sack rate
Good◄
7.5% sack rate
Dexter Lawrence II
0.3 disrupt/gm
Deone Walker◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Boye Mafe
0.2 press/gm
T.J. Sanders◄
no 2025 data
Demetrius Knight Jr.◄
0.8 impact/gm
Greg Rousseau
0.7 impact/gm
Dax Hill◄
0.5 cover/gm
Christian Benford
0.3 cover/gm
Jordan Battle◄
0.7 cover/gm
Cole Bishop
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
0.11 EPA/att
Chase Brown
-0.04 EPA/tch
James Cook III◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Ja'Marr Chase◄
0.19 EPA/tgt
DJ Moore
0.12 EPA/tgt
Mike Gesicki
0.07 EPA/tgt
Dalton Kincaid◄
0.57 EPA/tgt
Good
5.3% sack rate
Good◄
7.5% sack rate
Dexter Lawrence II
0.3 disrupt/gm
Deone Walker◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Boye Mafe
0.2 press/gm
T.J. Sanders◄
no 2025 data
Demetrius Knight Jr.◄
0.8 impact/gm
Greg Rousseau
0.7 impact/gm
Dax Hill◄
0.5 cover/gm
Christian Benford
0.3 cover/gm
Jordan Battle◄
0.7 cover/gm
Cole Bishop
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
TEN
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
CLE
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Cam Ward
-0.15 EPA/att
Deshaun Watson◄
no 2025 data
Tony Pollard◄
-0.10 EPA/tch
Quinshon Judkins
-0.10 EPA/tch
Carnell Tate◄
no 2025 data
Jerry Jeudy
-0.24 EPA/tgt
Gunnar Helm◄
0.05 EPA/tgt
Harold Fannin Jr.
0.01 EPA/tgt
Bad◄
8.9% sack rate
Bad
8.4% sack rate
Jeffery Simmons◄
1.5 disrupt/gm
Mason Graham
0.4 disrupt/gm
Jermaine Johnson II
0.3 press/gm
Jared Verse◄
0.9 press/gm
Cody Barton
0.7 impact/gm
Carson Schwesinger◄
0.9 impact/gm
Alontae Taylor
0.6 cover/gm
Tyson Campbell◄
0.7 cover/gm
Amani Hooker◄
0.5 cover/gm
Grant Delpit
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
DAL
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
DET
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
Dak Prescott◄
0.14 EPA/att
Jared Goff
0.14 EPA/att
Javonte Williams
-0.03 EPA/tch
Jahmyr Gibbs◄
0.04 EPA/tch
CeeDee Lamb
0.20 EPA/tgt
Amon-Ra St. Brown◄
0.28 EPA/tgt
Jake Ferguson
0.16 EPA/tgt
Sam LaPorta◄
0.53 EPA/tgt
Elite◄
4.7% sack rate
Good
6.3% sack rate
Otito Ogbonnia◄
0.3 disrupt/gm
Alim McNeill
0.3 disrupt/gm
Quinnen Williams
no 2025 data
Aidan Hutchinson◄
1.3 press/gm
Dee Winters◄
0.8 impact/gm
Derrick Barnes
0.7 impact/gm
Cobie Durant
0.5 cover/gm
D.J. Reed◄
0.5 cover/gm
Malik Hooker
0.2 cover/gm
Kerby Joseph◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
NO
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
TB
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Tyler Shough◄
0.00 EPA/att
Baker Mayfield
0.00 EPA/att
Travis Etienne Jr.◄
-0.03 EPA/tch
Bucky Irving
-0.10 EPA/tch
Chris Olave◄
0.19 EPA/tgt
Emeka Egbuka
0.05 EPA/tgt
Juwan Johnson◄
0.29 EPA/tgt
Cade Otton
0.03 EPA/tgt
Bad
7.7% sack rate
Average◄
6.4% sack rate
Davon Godchaux
0.1 disrupt/gm
Vita Vea◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Cameron Jordan◄
no 2025 data
Elijah Roberts
0.2 press/gm
Kaden Elliss◄
1.0 impact/gm
Yaya Diaby
0.9 impact/gm
Kool-Aid McKinstry◄
0.9 cover/gm
Jacob Parrish
0.4 cover/gm
Justin Reid
0.5 cover/gm
Antoine Winfield Jr.◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
DEN
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
LV
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Bo Nix◄
0.08 EPA/att
Kirk Cousins
-0.00 EPA/att
J.K. Dobbins◄
-0.00 EPA/tch
Ashton Jeanty
-0.20 EPA/tch
Courtland Sutton◄
0.30 EPA/tgt
Tre Tucker
0.18 EPA/tgt
Evan Engram
0.04 EPA/tgt
Brock Bowers◄
0.22 EPA/tgt
Elite◄
3.6% sack rate
Bad
11.1% sack rate
D.J. Jones◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Adam Butler
0.3 disrupt/gm
Zach Allen◄
1.1 press/gm
Thomas Booker IV
no 2025 data
Jonathon Cooper
0.8 impact/gm
Quay Walker◄
0.9 impact/gm
Riley Moss◄
0.8 cover/gm
Eric Stokes
0.2 cover/gm
Talanoa Hufanga◄
0.7 cover/gm
Isaiah Pola-Mao
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
CHI
OFF Balanced · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
GB
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Caleb Williams
0.06 EPA/att
Jordan Love◄
0.18 EPA/att
D'Andre Swift◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Josh Jacobs
-0.01 EPA/tch
Rome Odunze
0.17 EPA/tgt
Christian Watson◄
0.38 EPA/tgt
Colston Loveland
0.47 EPA/tgt
Tucker Kraft◄
0.61 EPA/tgt
Elite◄
4.0% sack rate
Average
5.6% sack rate
Gervon Dexter Sr.◄
0.7 disrupt/gm
Javon Hargrave
0.4 disrupt/gm
Montez Sweat◄
0.9 press/gm
Karl Brooks
no 2025 data
Devin Bush◄
0.9 impact/gm
Edgerrin Cooper
0.6 impact/gm
Tyrique Stevenson
0.5 cover/gm
Keisean Nixon◄
0.7 cover/gm
Dillon Thieneman
no 2025 data
Evan Williams◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
HOU
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
KC
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
C.J. Stroud
0.08 EPA/att
Patrick Mahomes◄
0.10 EPA/att
David Montgomery◄
0.01 EPA/tch
Kenneth Walker III
-0.02 EPA/tch
Nico Collins◄
0.26 EPA/tgt
Rashee Rice
0.15 EPA/tgt
Dalton Schultz
0.29 EPA/tgt
Travis Kelce◄
0.32 EPA/tgt
Average◄
5.1% sack rate
Average
7.4% sack rate
Tommy Togiai◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Khyiris Tonga
0.1 disrupt/gm
Will Anderson Jr.◄
1.2 press/gm
George Karlaftis
0.8 press/gm
Henry To'oTo'o◄
0.8 impact/gm
Drue Tranquill
0.7 impact/gm
Kamari Lassiter◄
1.0 cover/gm
L'Jarius Sneed
no 2025 data
Reed Blankenship
0.4 cover/gm
Alohi Gilman◄
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
PIT
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
BAL
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Aaron Rodgers◄
0.04 EPA/att
Lamar Jackson
0.04 EPA/att
Jaylen Warren◄
0.03 EPA/tch
Derrick Henry
0.02 EPA/tch
DK Metcalf
0.26 EPA/tgt
Zay Flowers◄
0.31 EPA/tgt
Pat Freiermuth◄
0.31 EPA/tgt
Mark Andrews
0.02 EPA/tgt
Good
5.3% sack rate
Good◄
9.6% sack rate
Yahya Black
no 2025 data
Travis Jones◄
0.7 disrupt/gm
Cameron Heyward
0.4 press/gm
Calais Campbell◄
0.7 press/gm
Payton Wilson◄
0.7 impact/gm
Roquan Smith
0.7 impact/gm
Jalen Ramsey
0.4 cover/gm
Nate Wiggins◄
0.7 cover/gm
Jaquan Brisker◄
0.6 cover/gm
Malaki Starks
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
PHI
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · four-man rush
LAC
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Jalen Hurts◄
0.05 EPA/att
Justin Herbert
0.02 EPA/att
Saquon Barkley
-0.08 EPA/tch
Omarion Hampton◄
-0.01 EPA/tch
DeVonta Smith◄
0.38 EPA/tgt
Ladd McConkey
0.05 EPA/tgt
Dallas Goedert◄
0.35 EPA/tgt
Oronde Gadsden
0.19 EPA/tgt
Average◄
6.6% sack rate
Bad
9.5% sack rate
Average
no data
Dalvin Tomlinson
no 2025 data
Jalen Carter
no 2025 data
Teair Tart
no 2025 data
Zack Baun◄
1.0 impact/gm
Daiyan Henley
0.8 impact/gm
Quinyon Mitchell◄
0.7 cover/gm
Cam Hart
0.5 cover/gm
Andrew Mukuba
0.4 cover/gm
Derwin James Jr.◄
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
WAS
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
MIN
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Jayden Daniels
-0.02 EPA/att
Kyler Murray◄
0.02 EPA/att
Jacory Croskey-Merritt◄
-0.02 EPA/tch
Aaron Jones Sr.
-0.04 EPA/tch
Terry McLaurin◄
0.35 EPA/tgt
Justin Jefferson
-0.08 EPA/tgt
Chig Okonkwo
0.13 EPA/tgt
T.J. Hockenson◄
0.16 EPA/tgt
Good◄
7.3% sack rate
Bad
11.0% sack rate
Daron Payne◄
0.6 disrupt/gm
Caleb Banks
no 2025 data
Tim Settle
no 2025 data
Levi Drake Rodriguez
no 2025 data
Odafe Oweh
0.7 impact/gm
Eric Wilson◄
1.1 impact/gm
Mike Sainristil◄
0.7 cover/gm
Isaiah Rodgers
0.2 cover/gm
Nick Cross
0.5 cover/gm
Joshua Metellus◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
LA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
ARI
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Matthew Stafford◄
0.19 EPA/att
Jacoby Brissett
-0.00 EPA/att
Kyren Williams◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Jeremiyah Love
no 2025 data
Puka Nacua◄
0.59 EPA/tgt
Marvin Harrison Jr.
0.30 EPA/tgt
Colby Parkinson
0.17 EPA/tgt
Trey McBride◄
0.38 EPA/tgt
Elite◄
3.7% sack rate
Bad
8.3% sack rate
Poona Ford
0.3 disrupt/gm
Roy Lopez◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Kobie Turner
0.6 press/gm
Josh Sweat◄
no 2025 data
Byron Young◄
1.1 impact/gm
Zaven Collins
0.4 impact/gm
Jaylen Watson
0.4 cover/gm
Denzel Burke◄
0.7 cover/gm
Kamren Kinchens◄
0.6 cover/gm
Budda Baker
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
MIA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
NYJ
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Malik Willis◄
0.13 EPA/att
Geno Smith
-0.12 EPA/att
De'Von Achane◄
0.01 EPA/tch
Breece Hall
-0.04 EPA/tch
Malik Washington
-0.10 EPA/tgt
Garrett Wilson◄
-0.02 EPA/tgt
Greg Dulcich◄
0.33 EPA/tgt
Kenyon Sadiq
no 2025 data
Good◄
7.4% sack rate
Bad
10.8% sack rate
Kenneth Grant◄
0.2 disrupt/gm
Harrison Phillips
0.2 disrupt/gm
Chop Robinson
no 2025 data
Will McDonald IV◄
0.9 press/gm
Jordyn Brooks◄
1.2 impact/gm
Jamien Sherwood
1.0 impact/gm
Jason Marshall Jr.
0.3 cover/gm
Nahshon Wright◄
0.8 cover/gm
Dante Trader Jr.
0.2 cover/gm
Minkah Fitzpatrick◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
IND
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
JAX
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Daniel Jones◄
0.11 EPA/att
Trevor Lawrence
0.05 EPA/att
Jonathan Taylor◄
0.07 EPA/tch
Bhayshul Tuten
-0.03 EPA/tch
Alec Pierce◄
0.49 EPA/tgt
Brian Thomas Jr.
0.14 EPA/tgt
Tyler Warren
0.12 EPA/tgt
Brenton Strange◄
0.39 EPA/tgt
Good◄
5.0% sack rate
Bad
6.8% sack rate
Grover Stewart◄
0.3 disrupt/gm
DaVon Hamilton
0.2 disrupt/gm
Laiatu Latu
0.9 press/gm
Josh Hines-Allen◄
1.0 press/gm
Akeem Davis-Gaither
0.5 impact/gm
Foyesade Oluokun◄
0.9 impact/gm
Sauce Gardner
0.5 cover/gm
Montaric Brown◄
0.7 cover/gm
Cam Bynum
0.7 cover/gm
Antonio Johnson◄
0.8 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
SEA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
ATL
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Sam Darnold◄
0.11 EPA/att
Tua Tagovailoa
0.03 EPA/att
Zach Charbonnet
-0.00 EPA/tch
Bijan Robinson◄
0.03 EPA/tch
Jaxon Smith-Njigba◄
0.47 EPA/tgt
Drake London
0.17 EPA/tgt
AJ Barner◄
0.32 EPA/tgt
Kyle Pitts Sr.
0.18 EPA/tgt
Average
5.3% sack rate
Elite◄
4.6% sack rate
Byron Murphy II◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Da'Shawn Hand
no 2025 data
Leonard Williams◄
0.8 press/gm
Brandon Dorlus
0.8 press/gm
DeMarcus Lawrence◄
0.8 impact/gm
Divine Deablo
0.7 impact/gm
Josh Jobe◄
0.6 cover/gm
A.J. Terrell Jr.
0.5 cover/gm
Ty Okada
0.5 cover/gm
Jessie Bates III◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
Winner accuracy by grade, 1070 games. A high grade means a clearer mismatch — but the books know it too, so higher accuracy here does not mean a betting edge.
All validated trends · out-of-sample (2020–2026)
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