We simulate every NFL game on opponent-adjusted net EPA — offense and defense on both sides set the projected margin, scoring rates set the total — then post only the handful we have the most conviction in. Every posted game gets a grade and a projected score, and every one is graded against the real result.
Graded games
75.9%
the games we post · B+ or better
Full slate
62.5%
every game · n=1070
Market
67.4%
closing line · it’s better
Margin error
10.5
points, full slate
Accuracy is measured against the actual final score — did we pick the winner, and how many points off was the margin — not against the betting line. Across 2019–2025 the simulator calls 62.5% of all games straight up. The market’s closing line calls 67.4% — the NFL is the most efficient market in sports, so the full slate is worse than the market and we say so. It is a prediction tool, not a betting edge: it does not beat the spread. Analysis and entertainment, 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.
Board went 3-1 · full slate 7-9 straight up
Our 4 highest-conviction calls out of 16 games this week. We post at most 6, and nothing below a B+ — a thin week posts fewer rather than padding the board.
NYG
NE
20
28
Offense
NE
Defense
NE
Called it ✓
NYG
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
NE
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
Every game we simulated this week, highest conviction first. The board above is only the ones that cleared B+— here’s the whole week so nothing’s hidden.
NYG
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
NE
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Jaxson Dart
0.01 EPA/att
Drake Maye
The grade is our conviction in our own call — how big the projected margin is. Here is how each grade actually performed across 2019–2025:
Net EPA — opponent-adjusted expected points added on offense and defense, both sides of the ball — sets the projected margin. Scoring rates set the total. Ratings are computed as of that week’s kickoff, using only games already played, so nothing is graded with hindsight. Early in the season a team carries its prior-year rating until it has enough games to stand on its own.
It does not beat the spread. The NFL market is the sharpest in sports. We publish this because the projection and the matchup are interesting and we grade ourselves honestly against the real score — not because it prints money.
Also on our board
Separate from the simulator: situational trends mined from 1999–2026 seasons and validated out-of-sample. Only the ones that actually hold up.
The Sizzlin NFL Simulator is analysis and entertainment — not betting advice or a guaranteed outcome. 21+. 1-800-GAMBLER.
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Jaxson Dart
0.01 EPA/att
Drake Maye◄
0.24 EPA/att
Cam Skattebo
-0.05 EPA/tch
Rhamondre Stevenson◄
-0.02 EPA/tch
Malik Nabers
0.04 EPA/tgt
A.J. Brown◄
0.22 EPA/tgt
Isaiah Likely
0.10 EPA/tgt
Hunter Henry◄
0.35 EPA/tgt
Bad
8.4% sack rate
Average◄
8.7% sack rate
DJ Reader
0.1 disrupt/gm
Cory Durden◄
0.2 disrupt/gm
Shelby Harris
0.2 press/gm
Christian Barmore◄
no 2025 data
Brian Burns◄
1.8 impact/gm
Christian Elliss
0.3 impact/gm
Dru Phillips◄
0.6 cover/gm
Carlton Davis III
0.4 cover/gm
Tyler Nubin◄
0.3 cover/gm
Craig Woodson
0.3 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
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0.24 EPA/att
Cam Skattebo
-0.05 EPA/tch
Rhamondre Stevenson◄
-0.02 EPA/tch
Malik Nabers
0.04 EPA/tgt
A.J. Brown◄
0.22 EPA/tgt
Isaiah Likely
0.10 EPA/tgt
Hunter Henry◄
0.35 EPA/tgt
Bad
8.4% sack rate
Average◄
8.7% sack rate
DJ Reader
0.1 disrupt/gm
Cory Durden◄
0.2 disrupt/gm
Shelby Harris
0.2 press/gm
Christian Barmore◄
no 2025 data
Brian Burns◄
1.8 impact/gm
Christian Elliss
0.3 impact/gm
Dru Phillips◄
0.6 cover/gm
Carlton Davis III
0.4 cover/gm
Tyler Nubin◄
0.3 cover/gm
Craig Woodson
0.3 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
LV
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
LAC
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Kirk Cousins
-0.00 EPA/att
Justin Herbert◄
0.02 EPA/att
Ashton Jeanty
-0.20 EPA/tch
Omarion Hampton◄
-0.01 EPA/tch
Tre Tucker◄
0.18 EPA/tgt
Ladd McConkey
0.05 EPA/tgt
Brock Bowers◄
0.22 EPA/tgt
Oronde Gadsden
0.19 EPA/tgt
Bad
11.1% sack rate
Bad◄
9.5% sack rate
Adam Butler
0.3 disrupt/gm
Dalvin Tomlinson◄
no 2025 data
Thomas Booker IV
no 2025 data
Teair Tart
no 2025 data
Quay Walker◄
0.9 impact/gm
Daiyan Henley
0.8 impact/gm
Eric Stokes
0.2 cover/gm
Cam Hart◄
0.5 cover/gm
Isaiah Pola-Mao
0.5 cover/gm
Derwin James Jr.◄
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
MIN
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
SEA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Kyler Murray
0.02 EPA/att
Sam Darnold◄
0.11 EPA/att
Aaron Jones Sr.
-0.04 EPA/tch
Zach Charbonnet◄
-0.00 EPA/tch
Justin Jefferson
-0.08 EPA/tgt
Jaxon Smith-Njigba◄
0.47 EPA/tgt
T.J. Hockenson
0.16 EPA/tgt
AJ Barner◄
0.32 EPA/tgt
Bad
11.0% sack rate
Average◄
5.3% sack rate
Caleb Banks
no 2025 data
Byron Murphy II◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Levi Drake Rodriguez
no 2025 data
Leonard Williams
0.8 press/gm
Eric Wilson◄
1.1 impact/gm
DeMarcus Lawrence
0.8 impact/gm
Isaiah Rodgers
0.2 cover/gm
Josh Jobe◄
0.6 cover/gm
Joshua Metellus◄
0.6 cover/gm
Ty Okada
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
CIN
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
BAL
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Joe Burrow◄
0.08 EPA/att
Lamar Jackson
0.04 EPA/att
Chase Brown
-0.04 EPA/tch
Derrick Henry◄
0.02 EPA/tch
Ja'Marr Chase
0.19 EPA/tgt
Zay Flowers◄
0.31 EPA/tgt
Mike Gesicki◄
0.07 EPA/tgt
Mark Andrews
0.02 EPA/tgt
Good
5.3% sack rate
Good◄
9.6% sack rate
Dexter Lawrence II
0.3 disrupt/gm
Travis Jones◄
0.7 disrupt/gm
Boye Mafe
0.2 press/gm
Calais Campbell◄
0.7 press/gm
Demetrius Knight Jr.◄
0.8 impact/gm
Roquan Smith
0.7 impact/gm
Dax Hill
0.5 cover/gm
Nate Wiggins◄
0.7 cover/gm
Jordan Battle◄
0.7 cover/gm
Malaki Starks
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
HOU
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
IND
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
C.J. Stroud
0.08 EPA/att
Daniel Jones◄
0.11 EPA/att
David Montgomery
0.01 EPA/tch
Jonathan Taylor◄
0.07 EPA/tch
Nico Collins
0.26 EPA/tgt
Alec Pierce◄
0.49 EPA/tgt
Dalton Schultz◄
0.29 EPA/tgt
Tyler Warren
0.12 EPA/tgt
Average
5.1% sack rate
Good◄
5.0% sack rate
Tommy Togiai◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Grover Stewart
0.3 disrupt/gm
Will Anderson Jr.◄
1.2 press/gm
Laiatu Latu
0.9 press/gm
Henry To'oTo'o◄
0.8 impact/gm
Akeem Davis-Gaither
0.5 impact/gm
Kamari Lassiter◄
1.0 cover/gm
Sauce Gardner
0.5 cover/gm
Reed Blankenship
0.4 cover/gm
Cam Bynum◄
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
LA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
CAR
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Matthew Stafford◄
0.19 EPA/att
Bryce Young
-0.03 EPA/att
Kyren Williams◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Chuba Hubbard
-0.05 EPA/tch
Puka Nacua◄
0.59 EPA/tgt
Tetairoa McMillan
0.17 EPA/tgt
Colby Parkinson◄
0.17 EPA/tgt
Tommy Tremble
0.14 EPA/tgt
Elite◄
3.7% sack rate
Average
6.4% sack rate
Poona Ford◄
0.3 disrupt/gm
Bobby Brown III
0.2 disrupt/gm
Kobie Turner◄
0.6 press/gm
Tershawn Wharton
0.2 press/gm
Byron Young◄
1.1 impact/gm
Jaelan Phillips
0.7 impact/gm
Jaylen Watson
0.4 cover/gm
Mike Jackson◄
1.0 cover/gm
Kamren Kinchens◄
0.6 cover/gm
Nick Scott
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
JAX
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
TEN
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Trevor Lawrence◄
0.05 EPA/att
Cam Ward
-0.15 EPA/att
Bhayshul Tuten◄
-0.03 EPA/tch
Tony Pollard
-0.10 EPA/tch
Brian Thomas Jr.
0.14 EPA/tgt
Carnell Tate◄
no 2025 data
Brenton Strange◄
0.39 EPA/tgt
Gunnar Helm
0.05 EPA/tgt
Bad◄
6.8% sack rate
Bad
8.9% sack rate
DaVon Hamilton
0.2 disrupt/gm
Jeffery Simmons◄
1.5 disrupt/gm
Josh Hines-Allen◄
1.0 press/gm
Jermaine Johnson II
0.3 press/gm
Foyesade Oluokun◄
0.9 impact/gm
Cody Barton
0.7 impact/gm
Montaric Brown◄
0.7 cover/gm
Alontae Taylor
0.6 cover/gm
Antonio Johnson◄
0.8 cover/gm
Amani Hooker
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
CHI
OFF Balanced · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
PHI
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · four-man rush
Caleb Williams◄
0.06 EPA/att
Jalen Hurts
0.05 EPA/att
D'Andre Swift◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Saquon Barkley
-0.08 EPA/tch
Rome Odunze
0.17 EPA/tgt
DeVonta Smith◄
0.38 EPA/tgt
Colston Loveland◄
0.47 EPA/tgt
Dallas Goedert
0.35 EPA/tgt
Elite◄
4.0% sack rate
Average
6.6% sack rate
Gervon Dexter Sr.◄
0.7 disrupt/gm
Average
no data
Montez Sweat◄
0.9 press/gm
Jalen Carter
no 2025 data
Devin Bush
0.9 impact/gm
Zack Baun◄
1.0 impact/gm
Tyrique Stevenson
0.5 cover/gm
Quinyon Mitchell◄
0.7 cover/gm
Dillon Thieneman◄
no 2025 data
Andrew Mukuba
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
NO
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
MIA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Tyler Shough
0.00 EPA/att
Malik Willis◄
0.13 EPA/att
Travis Etienne Jr.
-0.03 EPA/tch
De'Von Achane◄
0.01 EPA/tch
Chris Olave◄
0.19 EPA/tgt
Malik Washington
-0.10 EPA/tgt
Juwan Johnson
0.29 EPA/tgt
Greg Dulcich◄
0.33 EPA/tgt
Bad
7.7% sack rate
Good◄
7.4% sack rate
Davon Godchaux
0.1 disrupt/gm
Kenneth Grant◄
0.2 disrupt/gm
Cameron Jordan
no 2025 data
Chop Robinson
no 2025 data
Kaden Elliss
1.0 impact/gm
Jordyn Brooks◄
1.2 impact/gm
Kool-Aid McKinstry◄
0.9 cover/gm
Jason Marshall Jr.
0.3 cover/gm
Justin Reid◄
0.5 cover/gm
Dante Trader Jr.
0.2 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
ARI
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
TB
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Jacoby Brissett
-0.00 EPA/att
Baker Mayfield◄
0.00 EPA/att
Jeremiyah Love◄
no 2025 data
Bucky Irving
-0.10 EPA/tch
Marvin Harrison Jr.◄
0.30 EPA/tgt
Emeka Egbuka
0.05 EPA/tgt
Trey McBride◄
0.38 EPA/tgt
Cade Otton
0.03 EPA/tgt
Bad
8.3% sack rate
Average◄
6.4% sack rate
Roy Lopez
0.4 disrupt/gm
Vita Vea◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Josh Sweat◄
no 2025 data
Elijah Roberts
0.2 press/gm
Zaven Collins
0.4 impact/gm
Yaya Diaby◄
0.9 impact/gm
Denzel Burke◄
0.7 cover/gm
Jacob Parrish
0.4 cover/gm
Budda Baker
0.5 cover/gm
Antoine Winfield Jr.◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
DEN
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
WAS
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Bo Nix◄
0.08 EPA/att
Jayden Daniels
-0.02 EPA/att
J.K. Dobbins◄
-0.00 EPA/tch
Jacory Croskey-Merritt
-0.02 EPA/tch
Courtland Sutton
0.30 EPA/tgt
Terry McLaurin◄
0.35 EPA/tgt
Evan Engram
0.04 EPA/tgt
Chig Okonkwo◄
0.13 EPA/tgt
Elite◄
3.6% sack rate
Good
7.3% sack rate
D.J. Jones
0.4 disrupt/gm
Daron Payne◄
0.6 disrupt/gm
Zach Allen◄
1.1 press/gm
Tim Settle
no 2025 data
Jonathon Cooper◄
0.8 impact/gm
Odafe Oweh
0.7 impact/gm
Riley Moss◄
0.8 cover/gm
Mike Sainristil
0.7 cover/gm
Talanoa Hufanga◄
0.7 cover/gm
Nick Cross
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
GB
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
DET
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
Jordan Love◄
0.18 EPA/att
Jared Goff
0.14 EPA/att
Josh Jacobs
-0.01 EPA/tch
Jahmyr Gibbs◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Christian Watson◄
0.38 EPA/tgt
Amon-Ra St. Brown
0.28 EPA/tgt
Tucker Kraft◄
0.61 EPA/tgt
Sam LaPorta
0.53 EPA/tgt
Average
5.6% sack rate
Good◄
6.3% sack rate
Javon Hargrave◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Alim McNeill
0.3 disrupt/gm
Karl Brooks
no 2025 data
Aidan Hutchinson◄
1.3 press/gm
Edgerrin Cooper
0.6 impact/gm
Derrick Barnes◄
0.7 impact/gm
Keisean Nixon◄
0.7 cover/gm
D.J. Reed
0.5 cover/gm
Evan Williams
0.6 cover/gm
Kerby Joseph◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
SF
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
CLE
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Brock Purdy◄
0.13 EPA/att
Deshaun Watson
no 2025 data
Christian McCaffrey◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Quinshon Judkins
-0.10 EPA/tch
Mike Evans◄
0.06 EPA/tgt
Jerry Jeudy
-0.24 EPA/tgt
George Kittle◄
0.52 EPA/tgt
Harold Fannin Jr.
0.01 EPA/tgt
Average◄
4.5% sack rate
Bad
8.4% sack rate
Alfred Collins
0.2 disrupt/gm
Mason Graham◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
C.J. West
no 2025 data
Jared Verse◄
0.9 press/gm
Dre Greenlaw
0.4 impact/gm
Carson Schwesinger◄
0.9 impact/gm
Deommodore Lenoir
0.3 cover/gm
Tyson Campbell◄
0.7 cover/gm
Ji'Ayir Brown◄
0.5 cover/gm
Grant Delpit
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
KC
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
DAL
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Patrick Mahomes
0.10 EPA/att
Dak Prescott◄
0.14 EPA/att
Kenneth Walker III◄
-0.02 EPA/tch
Javonte Williams
-0.03 EPA/tch
Rashee Rice
0.15 EPA/tgt
CeeDee Lamb◄
0.20 EPA/tgt
Travis Kelce◄
0.32 EPA/tgt
Jake Ferguson
0.16 EPA/tgt
Average
7.4% sack rate
Elite◄
4.7% sack rate
Khyiris Tonga
0.1 disrupt/gm
Otito Ogbonnia◄
0.3 disrupt/gm
George Karlaftis
0.8 press/gm
Quinnen Williams
no 2025 data
Drue Tranquill
0.7 impact/gm
Dee Winters◄
0.8 impact/gm
L'Jarius Sneed◄
no 2025 data
Cobie Durant
0.5 cover/gm
Alohi Gilman◄
0.5 cover/gm
Malik Hooker
0.2 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
ATL
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
NYJ
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Tua Tagovailoa◄
0.03 EPA/att
Geno Smith
-0.12 EPA/att
Bijan Robinson◄
0.03 EPA/tch
Breece Hall
-0.04 EPA/tch
Drake London◄
0.17 EPA/tgt
Garrett Wilson
-0.02 EPA/tgt
Kyle Pitts Sr.
0.18 EPA/tgt
Kenyon Sadiq◄
no 2025 data
Elite◄
4.6% sack rate
Bad
10.8% sack rate
Da'Shawn Hand◄
no 2025 data
Harrison Phillips
0.2 disrupt/gm
Brandon Dorlus
0.8 press/gm
Will McDonald IV◄
0.9 press/gm
Divine Deablo
0.7 impact/gm
Jamien Sherwood◄
1.0 impact/gm
A.J. Terrell Jr.
0.5 cover/gm
Nahshon Wright◄
0.8 cover/gm
Jessie Bates III◄
0.6 cover/gm
Minkah Fitzpatrick
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
BUF
OFF Run-heavy · under-center
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
PIT
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Josh Allen◄
0.11 EPA/att
Aaron Rodgers
0.04 EPA/att
James Cook III◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Jaylen Warren
0.03 EPA/tch
DJ Moore
0.12 EPA/tgt
DK Metcalf◄
0.26 EPA/tgt
Dalton Kincaid◄
0.57 EPA/tgt
Pat Freiermuth
0.31 EPA/tgt
Good◄
7.5% sack rate
Good
5.3% sack rate
Deone Walker◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Yahya Black
no 2025 data
T.J. Sanders◄
no 2025 data
Cameron Heyward
0.4 press/gm
Greg Rousseau
0.7 impact/gm
Payton Wilson◄
0.7 impact/gm
Christian Benford
0.3 cover/gm
Jalen Ramsey◄
0.4 cover/gm
Cole Bishop◄
0.7 cover/gm
Jaquan Brisker
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
Winner accuracy by grade, 1070 games. A high grade means a clearer mismatch — but the books know it too, so higher accuracy here does not mean a betting edge.
All validated trends · out-of-sample (2020–2026)
NFL · Members
The full board, confidence ratings, and daily plays — plus the complete track record. New plays every morning. The track record and featured picks above stay free.
NFL Pass
$9.99/mo
Just NFL
All-AccessBest value
$29.99/mo
All 5 sports
Secure checkout via Stripe. Cancel anytime. 21+. Bet responsibly.
