We simulate every NFL game on opponent-adjusted net EPA — offense and defense on both sides set the projected margin, scoring rates set the total — then post only the handful we have the most conviction in. Every posted game gets a grade and a projected score, and every one is graded against the real result.
Graded games
75.9%
the games we post · B+ or better
Full slate
62.5%
every game · n=1070
Market
67.4%
closing line · it’s better
Margin error
10.5
points, full slate
Accuracy is measured against the actual final score — did we pick the winner, and how many points off was the margin — not against the betting line. Across 2019–2025 the simulator calls 62.5% of all games straight up. The market’s closing line calls 67.4% — the NFL is the most efficient market in sports, so the full slate is worse than the market and we say so. It is a prediction tool, not a betting edge: it does not beat the spread. Analysis and entertainment, 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.
Board went 2-0 · full slate 11-3 straight up
Our 2 highest-conviction calls out of 14 games this week. We post at most 6, and nothing below a B+ — a thin week posts fewer rather than padding the board.
NYG
DET
20
30
Offense
DET
Defense
DET
Called it ✓
NYG
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
DET
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
Every game we simulated this week, highest conviction first. The board above is only the ones that cleared B+— here’s the whole week so nothing’s hidden.
NYG
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
DET
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
Jaxson Dart
0.01 EPA/att
Jared Goff
The grade is our conviction in our own call — how big the projected margin is. Here is how each grade actually performed across 2019–2025:
Net EPA — opponent-adjusted expected points added on offense and defense, both sides of the ball — sets the projected margin. Scoring rates set the total. Ratings are computed as of that week’s kickoff, using only games already played, so nothing is graded with hindsight. Early in the season a team carries its prior-year rating until it has enough games to stand on its own.
It does not beat the spread. The NFL market is the sharpest in sports. We publish this because the projection and the matchup are interesting and we grade ourselves honestly against the real score — not because it prints money.
Also on our board
Separate from the simulator: situational trends mined from 1999–2026 seasons and validated out-of-sample. Only the ones that actually hold up.
The Sizzlin NFL Simulator is analysis and entertainment — not betting advice or a guaranteed outcome. 21+. 1-800-GAMBLER.
Jaxson Dart
0.01 EPA/att
Jared Goff◄
0.14 EPA/att
Cam Skattebo
-0.05 EPA/tch
Jahmyr Gibbs◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Malik Nabers
0.04 EPA/tgt
Amon-Ra St. Brown◄
0.28 EPA/tgt
Isaiah Likely
0.10 EPA/tgt
Sam LaPorta◄
0.53 EPA/tgt
Bad
8.4% sack rate
Good◄
6.3% sack rate
DJ Reader
0.1 disrupt/gm
Alim McNeill◄
0.3 disrupt/gm
Shelby Harris
0.2 press/gm
Aidan Hutchinson◄
1.3 press/gm
Brian Burns◄
1.8 impact/gm
Derrick Barnes
0.7 impact/gm
Dru Phillips◄
0.6 cover/gm
D.J. Reed
0.5 cover/gm
Tyler Nubin
0.3 cover/gm
Kerby Joseph◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
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0.14 EPA/att
Cam Skattebo
-0.05 EPA/tch
Jahmyr Gibbs◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Malik Nabers
0.04 EPA/tgt
Amon-Ra St. Brown◄
0.28 EPA/tgt
Isaiah Likely
0.10 EPA/tgt
Sam LaPorta◄
0.53 EPA/tgt
Bad
8.4% sack rate
Good◄
6.3% sack rate
DJ Reader
0.1 disrupt/gm
Alim McNeill◄
0.3 disrupt/gm
Shelby Harris
0.2 press/gm
Aidan Hutchinson◄
1.3 press/gm
Brian Burns◄
1.8 impact/gm
Derrick Barnes
0.7 impact/gm
Dru Phillips◄
0.6 cover/gm
D.J. Reed
0.5 cover/gm
Tyler Nubin
0.3 cover/gm
Kerby Joseph◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
MIN
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
GB
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Kyler Murray
0.02 EPA/att
Jordan Love◄
0.18 EPA/att
Aaron Jones Sr.
-0.04 EPA/tch
Josh Jacobs◄
-0.01 EPA/tch
Justin Jefferson
-0.08 EPA/tgt
Christian Watson◄
0.38 EPA/tgt
T.J. Hockenson
0.16 EPA/tgt
Tucker Kraft◄
0.61 EPA/tgt
Bad
11.0% sack rate
Average◄
5.6% sack rate
Caleb Banks
no 2025 data
Javon Hargrave◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Levi Drake Rodriguez
no 2025 data
Karl Brooks
no 2025 data
Eric Wilson◄
1.1 impact/gm
Edgerrin Cooper
0.6 impact/gm
Isaiah Rodgers
0.2 cover/gm
Keisean Nixon◄
0.7 cover/gm
Joshua Metellus
0.6 cover/gm
Evan Williams◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
NYJ
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
BAL
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Geno Smith
-0.12 EPA/att
Lamar Jackson◄
0.04 EPA/att
Breece Hall
-0.04 EPA/tch
Derrick Henry◄
0.02 EPA/tch
Garrett Wilson
-0.02 EPA/tgt
Zay Flowers◄
0.31 EPA/tgt
Kenyon Sadiq◄
no 2025 data
Mark Andrews
0.02 EPA/tgt
Bad
10.8% sack rate
Good◄
9.6% sack rate
Harrison Phillips
0.2 disrupt/gm
Travis Jones◄
0.7 disrupt/gm
Will McDonald IV◄
0.9 press/gm
Calais Campbell
0.7 press/gm
Jamien Sherwood◄
1.0 impact/gm
Roquan Smith
0.7 impact/gm
Nahshon Wright◄
0.8 cover/gm
Nate Wiggins
0.7 cover/gm
Minkah Fitzpatrick◄
0.6 cover/gm
Malaki Starks
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
SEA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
TEN
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Sam Darnold◄
0.11 EPA/att
Cam Ward
-0.15 EPA/att
Zach Charbonnet◄
-0.00 EPA/tch
Tony Pollard
-0.10 EPA/tch
Jaxon Smith-Njigba◄
0.47 EPA/tgt
Carnell Tate
no 2025 data
AJ Barner◄
0.32 EPA/tgt
Gunnar Helm
0.05 EPA/tgt
Average◄
5.3% sack rate
Bad
8.9% sack rate
Byron Murphy II
0.8 disrupt/gm
Jeffery Simmons◄
1.5 disrupt/gm
Leonard Williams◄
0.8 press/gm
Jermaine Johnson II
0.3 press/gm
DeMarcus Lawrence◄
0.8 impact/gm
Cody Barton
0.7 impact/gm
Josh Jobe◄
0.6 cover/gm
Alontae Taylor
0.6 cover/gm
Ty Okada
0.5 cover/gm
Amani Hooker◄
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
TB
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
LA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Baker Mayfield
0.00 EPA/att
Matthew Stafford◄
0.19 EPA/att
Bucky Irving
-0.10 EPA/tch
Kyren Williams◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Emeka Egbuka
0.05 EPA/tgt
Puka Nacua◄
0.59 EPA/tgt
Cade Otton
0.03 EPA/tgt
Colby Parkinson◄
0.17 EPA/tgt
Average
6.4% sack rate
Elite◄
3.7% sack rate
Vita Vea◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Poona Ford
0.3 disrupt/gm
Elijah Roberts
0.2 press/gm
Kobie Turner◄
0.6 press/gm
Yaya Diaby
0.9 impact/gm
Byron Young◄
1.1 impact/gm
Jacob Parrish◄
0.4 cover/gm
Jaylen Watson
0.4 cover/gm
Antoine Winfield Jr.◄
0.6 cover/gm
Kamren Kinchens
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
NE
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
CIN
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Drake Maye◄
0.24 EPA/att
Joe Burrow
0.08 EPA/att
Rhamondre Stevenson◄
-0.02 EPA/tch
Chase Brown
-0.04 EPA/tch
A.J. Brown◄
0.22 EPA/tgt
Ja'Marr Chase
0.19 EPA/tgt
Hunter Henry◄
0.35 EPA/tgt
Mike Gesicki
0.07 EPA/tgt
Average
8.7% sack rate
Good◄
5.3% sack rate
Cory Durden
0.2 disrupt/gm
Dexter Lawrence II◄
0.3 disrupt/gm
Christian Barmore◄
no 2025 data
Boye Mafe
0.2 press/gm
Christian Elliss
0.3 impact/gm
Demetrius Knight Jr.◄
0.8 impact/gm
Carlton Davis III
0.4 cover/gm
Dax Hill◄
0.5 cover/gm
Craig Woodson
0.3 cover/gm
Jordan Battle◄
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
CAR
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
SF
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Bryce Young
-0.03 EPA/att
Brock Purdy◄
0.13 EPA/att
Chuba Hubbard
-0.05 EPA/tch
Christian McCaffrey◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Tetairoa McMillan◄
0.17 EPA/tgt
Mike Evans
0.06 EPA/tgt
Tommy Tremble
0.14 EPA/tgt
George Kittle◄
0.52 EPA/tgt
Average◄
6.4% sack rate
Average
4.5% sack rate
Bobby Brown III
0.2 disrupt/gm
Alfred Collins◄
0.2 disrupt/gm
Tershawn Wharton
0.2 press/gm
C.J. West◄
no 2025 data
Jaelan Phillips◄
0.7 impact/gm
Dre Greenlaw
0.4 impact/gm
Mike Jackson◄
1.0 cover/gm
Deommodore Lenoir
0.3 cover/gm
Nick Scott
0.4 cover/gm
Ji'Ayir Brown◄
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
PIT
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
CHI
OFF Balanced · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
Aaron Rodgers
0.04 EPA/att
Caleb Williams◄
0.06 EPA/att
Jaylen Warren
0.03 EPA/tch
D'Andre Swift◄
0.04 EPA/tch
DK Metcalf◄
0.26 EPA/tgt
Rome Odunze
0.17 EPA/tgt
Pat Freiermuth
0.31 EPA/tgt
Colston Loveland◄
0.47 EPA/tgt
Good
5.3% sack rate
Elite◄
4.0% sack rate
Yahya Black
no 2025 data
Gervon Dexter Sr.◄
0.7 disrupt/gm
Cameron Heyward
0.4 press/gm
Montez Sweat◄
0.9 press/gm
Payton Wilson
0.7 impact/gm
Devin Bush◄
0.9 impact/gm
Jalen Ramsey
0.4 cover/gm
Tyrique Stevenson◄
0.5 cover/gm
Jaquan Brisker◄
0.6 cover/gm
Dillon Thieneman
no 2025 data
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
BUF
OFF Run-heavy · under-center
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
HOU
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Josh Allen◄
0.11 EPA/att
C.J. Stroud
0.08 EPA/att
James Cook III◄
0.04 EPA/tch
David Montgomery
0.01 EPA/tch
DJ Moore
0.12 EPA/tgt
Nico Collins◄
0.26 EPA/tgt
Dalton Kincaid◄
0.57 EPA/tgt
Dalton Schultz
0.29 EPA/tgt
Good◄
7.5% sack rate
Average
5.1% sack rate
Deone Walker◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Tommy Togiai
0.4 disrupt/gm
T.J. Sanders
no 2025 data
Will Anderson Jr.◄
1.2 press/gm
Greg Rousseau
0.7 impact/gm
Henry To'oTo'o◄
0.8 impact/gm
Christian Benford
0.3 cover/gm
Kamari Lassiter◄
1.0 cover/gm
Cole Bishop◄
0.7 cover/gm
Reed Blankenship
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
JAX
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
ARI
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Trevor Lawrence◄
0.05 EPA/att
Jacoby Brissett
-0.00 EPA/att
Bhayshul Tuten
-0.03 EPA/tch
Jeremiyah Love◄
no 2025 data
Brian Thomas Jr.
0.14 EPA/tgt
Marvin Harrison Jr.◄
0.30 EPA/tgt
Brenton Strange◄
0.39 EPA/tgt
Trey McBride
0.38 EPA/tgt
Bad
6.8% sack rate
Bad◄
8.3% sack rate
DaVon Hamilton
0.2 disrupt/gm
Roy Lopez◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Josh Hines-Allen◄
1.0 press/gm
Josh Sweat
no 2025 data
Foyesade Oluokun◄
0.9 impact/gm
Zaven Collins
0.4 impact/gm
Montaric Brown
0.7 cover/gm
Denzel Burke◄
0.7 cover/gm
Antonio Johnson◄
0.8 cover/gm
Budda Baker
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
ATL
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
NO
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Tua Tagovailoa◄
0.03 EPA/att
Tyler Shough
0.00 EPA/att
Bijan Robinson◄
0.03 EPA/tch
Travis Etienne Jr.
-0.03 EPA/tch
Drake London
0.17 EPA/tgt
Chris Olave◄
0.19 EPA/tgt
Kyle Pitts Sr.
0.18 EPA/tgt
Juwan Johnson◄
0.29 EPA/tgt
Elite◄
4.6% sack rate
Bad
7.7% sack rate
Da'Shawn Hand◄
no 2025 data
Davon Godchaux
0.1 disrupt/gm
Brandon Dorlus
0.8 press/gm
Cameron Jordan◄
no 2025 data
Divine Deablo
0.7 impact/gm
Kaden Elliss◄
1.0 impact/gm
A.J. Terrell Jr.
0.5 cover/gm
Kool-Aid McKinstry◄
0.9 cover/gm
Jessie Bates III◄
0.6 cover/gm
Justin Reid
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
IND
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
KC
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Daniel Jones◄
0.11 EPA/att
Patrick Mahomes
0.10 EPA/att
Jonathan Taylor◄
0.07 EPA/tch
Kenneth Walker III
-0.02 EPA/tch
Alec Pierce◄
0.49 EPA/tgt
Rashee Rice
0.15 EPA/tgt
Tyler Warren
0.12 EPA/tgt
Travis Kelce◄
0.32 EPA/tgt
Good◄
5.0% sack rate
Average
7.4% sack rate
Grover Stewart◄
0.3 disrupt/gm
Khyiris Tonga
0.1 disrupt/gm
Laiatu Latu◄
0.9 press/gm
George Karlaftis
0.8 press/gm
Akeem Davis-Gaither
0.5 impact/gm
Drue Tranquill◄
0.7 impact/gm
Sauce Gardner
0.5 cover/gm
L'Jarius Sneed◄
no 2025 data
Cam Bynum◄
0.7 cover/gm
Alohi Gilman
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
CLE
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
LV
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Deshaun Watson◄
no 2025 data
Kirk Cousins
-0.00 EPA/att
Quinshon Judkins◄
-0.10 EPA/tch
Ashton Jeanty
-0.20 EPA/tch
Jerry Jeudy
-0.24 EPA/tgt
Tre Tucker◄
0.18 EPA/tgt
Harold Fannin Jr.
0.01 EPA/tgt
Brock Bowers◄
0.22 EPA/tgt
Bad◄
8.4% sack rate
Bad
11.1% sack rate
Mason Graham◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Adam Butler
0.3 disrupt/gm
Jared Verse◄
0.9 press/gm
Thomas Booker IV
no 2025 data
Carson Schwesinger
0.9 impact/gm
Quay Walker◄
0.9 impact/gm
Tyson Campbell◄
0.7 cover/gm
Eric Stokes
0.2 cover/gm
Grant Delpit
0.4 cover/gm
Isaiah Pola-Mao◄
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
PHI
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · four-man rush
DAL
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Jalen Hurts
0.05 EPA/att
Dak Prescott◄
0.14 EPA/att
Saquon Barkley
-0.08 EPA/tch
Javonte Williams◄
-0.03 EPA/tch
DeVonta Smith◄
0.38 EPA/tgt
CeeDee Lamb
0.20 EPA/tgt
Dallas Goedert◄
0.35 EPA/tgt
Jake Ferguson
0.16 EPA/tgt
Average
6.6% sack rate
Elite◄
4.7% sack rate
Average◄
no data
Otito Ogbonnia
0.3 disrupt/gm
Jalen Carter
no 2025 data
Quinnen Williams
no 2025 data
Zack Baun◄
1.0 impact/gm
Dee Winters
0.8 impact/gm
Quinyon Mitchell◄
0.7 cover/gm
Cobie Durant
0.5 cover/gm
Andrew Mukuba◄
0.4 cover/gm
Malik Hooker
0.2 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
Winner accuracy by grade, 1070 games. A high grade means a clearer mismatch — but the books know it too, so higher accuracy here does not mean a betting edge.
All validated trends · out-of-sample (2020–2026)
NFL · Members
The full board, confidence ratings, and daily plays — plus the complete track record. New plays every morning. The track record and featured picks above stay free.
NFL Pass
$9.99/mo
Just NFL
All-AccessBest value
$29.99/mo
All 5 sports
Secure checkout via Stripe. Cancel anytime. 21+. Bet responsibly.
