We simulate every NFL game on opponent-adjusted net EPA — offense and defense on both sides set the projected margin, scoring rates set the total — then post only the handful we have the most conviction in. Every posted game gets a grade and a projected score, and every one is graded against the real result.
Graded games
75.9%
the games we post · B+ or better
Full slate
62.5%
every game · n=1070
Market
67.4%
closing line · it’s better
Margin error
10.5
points, full slate
Accuracy is measured against the actual final score — did we pick the winner, and how many points off was the margin — not against the betting line. Across 2019–2025 the simulator calls 62.5% of all games straight up. The market’s closing line calls 67.4% — the NFL is the most efficient market in sports, so the full slate is worse than the market and we say so. It is a prediction tool, not a betting edge: it does not beat the spread. Analysis and entertainment, 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.
Board went 1-0 · full slate 11-4 straight up
Our 1 highest-conviction calls out of 15 games this week. We post at most 6, and nothing below a B+ — a thin week posts fewer rather than padding the board.
NYJ
NE
19
28
Offense
NE
Defense
NE
Called it ✓
NYJ
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
NE
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
Every game we simulated this week, highest conviction first. The board above is only the ones that cleared B+— here’s the whole week so nothing’s hidden.
NYJ
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
NE
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Geno Smith
-0.12 EPA/att
Drake Maye
The grade is our conviction in our own call — how big the projected margin is. Here is how each grade actually performed across 2019–2025:
Net EPA — opponent-adjusted expected points added on offense and defense, both sides of the ball — sets the projected margin. Scoring rates set the total. Ratings are computed as of that week’s kickoff, using only games already played, so nothing is graded with hindsight. Early in the season a team carries its prior-year rating until it has enough games to stand on its own.
It does not beat the spread. The NFL market is the sharpest in sports. We publish this because the projection and the matchup are interesting and we grade ourselves honestly against the real score — not because it prints money.
Also on our board
Separate from the simulator: situational trends mined from 1999–2026 seasons and validated out-of-sample. Only the ones that actually hold up.
The Sizzlin NFL Simulator is analysis and entertainment — not betting advice or a guaranteed outcome. 21+. 1-800-GAMBLER.
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Geno Smith
-0.12 EPA/att
Drake Maye◄
0.25 EPA/att
Breece Hall
-0.04 EPA/tch
Rhamondre Stevenson◄
-0.02 EPA/tch
Garrett Wilson
-0.02 EPA/tgt
Romeo Doubs◄
0.30 EPA/tgt
Mason Taylor
0.12 EPA/tgt
Hunter Henry◄
0.36 EPA/tgt
Bad
10.8% sack rate
Average◄
8.7% sack rate
Harrison Phillips◄
0.2 disrupt/gm
Cory Durden
0.2 disrupt/gm
Will McDonald IV◄
0.9 press/gm
Christian Barmore
no 2025 data
Jamien Sherwood◄
1.0 impact/gm
Dre'Mont Jones
0.6 impact/gm
Nahshon Wright◄
0.8 cover/gm
Carlton Davis III
0.4 cover/gm
Dane Belton◄
0.5 cover/gm
Craig Woodson
0.3 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
0.25 EPA/att
Breece Hall
-0.04 EPA/tch
Rhamondre Stevenson◄
-0.02 EPA/tch
Garrett Wilson
-0.02 EPA/tgt
Romeo Doubs◄
0.30 EPA/tgt
Mason Taylor
0.12 EPA/tgt
Hunter Henry◄
0.36 EPA/tgt
Bad
10.8% sack rate
Average◄
8.7% sack rate
Harrison Phillips◄
0.2 disrupt/gm
Cory Durden
0.2 disrupt/gm
Will McDonald IV◄
0.9 press/gm
Christian Barmore
no 2025 data
Jamien Sherwood◄
1.0 impact/gm
Dre'Mont Jones
0.6 impact/gm
Nahshon Wright◄
0.8 cover/gm
Carlton Davis III
0.4 cover/gm
Dane Belton◄
0.5 cover/gm
Craig Woodson
0.3 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
CIN
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
PIT
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Joe Burrow◄
0.08 EPA/att
Aaron Rodgers
0.04 EPA/att
Chase Brown
-0.04 EPA/tch
Jaylen Warren◄
0.03 EPA/tch
Ja'Marr Chase
0.19 EPA/tgt
DK Metcalf◄
0.26 EPA/tgt
Mike Gesicki
0.07 EPA/tgt
Darnell Washington◄
0.24 EPA/tgt
Good
5.3% sack rate
Good◄
5.3% sack rate
Dexter Lawrence II
0.3 disrupt/gm
Keeanu Benton◄
0.6 disrupt/gm
Boye Mafe
0.2 press/gm
Cameron Heyward◄
0.4 press/gm
Demetrius Knight Jr.◄
0.8 impact/gm
Payton Wilson
0.7 impact/gm
Dax Hill◄
0.5 cover/gm
Jalen Ramsey
0.4 cover/gm
Jordan Battle◄
0.7 cover/gm
Jaquan Brisker
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
HOU
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
TEN
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
C.J. Stroud◄
0.08 EPA/att
Cam Ward
-0.15 EPA/att
David Montgomery◄
0.02 EPA/tch
Tony Pollard
-0.10 EPA/tch
Nico Collins◄
0.26 EPA/tgt
Carnell Tate
no 2025 data
Dalton Schultz◄
0.29 EPA/tgt
Gunnar Helm
0.05 EPA/tgt
Average◄
5.1% sack rate
Bad
8.9% sack rate
Tommy Togiai
0.4 disrupt/gm
Jeffery Simmons◄
1.5 disrupt/gm
Will Anderson Jr.◄
1.2 press/gm
Jermaine Johnson II
0.3 press/gm
Henry To'oTo'o◄
0.8 impact/gm
Cody Barton
0.7 impact/gm
Kamari Lassiter◄
1.0 cover/gm
Alontae Taylor
0.6 cover/gm
Reed Blankenship
0.4 cover/gm
Amani Hooker◄
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
CAR
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
ATL
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Bryce Young
-0.03 EPA/att
Michael Penix Jr.◄
0.01 EPA/att
Chuba Hubbard
-0.05 EPA/tch
Bijan Robinson◄
0.03 EPA/tch
Tetairoa McMillan
0.17 EPA/tgt
Drake London◄
0.18 EPA/tgt
Tommy Tremble
0.15 EPA/tgt
Kyle Pitts Sr.◄
0.18 EPA/tgt
Average
6.4% sack rate
Elite◄
4.6% sack rate
Lee Hunter
no 2025 data
Gervon Dexter Sr.◄
0.7 disrupt/gm
Derrick Brown◄
no 2025 data
Brandon Dorlus
0.8 press/gm
Bobby Okereke
0.7 impact/gm
Divine Deablo◄
0.7 impact/gm
Mike Jackson◄
1.0 cover/gm
A.J. Terrell Jr.
0.5 cover/gm
Nick Scott
0.4 cover/gm
Jessie Bates III◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
TB
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
BUF
OFF Run-heavy · under-center
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Baker Mayfield
0.00 EPA/att
Josh Allen◄
0.11 EPA/att
Bucky Irving
-0.10 EPA/tch
James Cook III◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Emeka Egbuka
0.05 EPA/tgt
DJ Moore◄
0.12 EPA/tgt
Cade Otton
0.03 EPA/tgt
Dalton Kincaid◄
0.58 EPA/tgt
Average
6.4% sack rate
Good◄
7.5% sack rate
Vita Vea◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Deone Walker
0.4 disrupt/gm
Calijah Kancey
no 2025 data
T.J. Sanders
no 2025 data
Yaya Diaby◄
0.9 impact/gm
Greg Rousseau
0.7 impact/gm
Jacob Parrish
0.4 cover/gm
Dee Alford◄
0.8 cover/gm
Antoine Winfield Jr.
0.6 cover/gm
Cole Bishop◄
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
SEA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
LA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Sam Darnold
0.11 EPA/att
Matthew Stafford◄
0.19 EPA/att
Brady Russell
-0.01 EPA/tch
Kyren Williams◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Jaxon Smith-Njigba
0.47 EPA/tgt
Puka Nacua◄
0.59 EPA/tgt
AJ Barner◄
0.32 EPA/tgt
Colby Parkinson
0.17 EPA/tgt
Average
5.3% sack rate
Elite◄
3.7% sack rate
Byron Murphy II◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Poona Ford
0.3 disrupt/gm
Leonard Williams◄
0.8 press/gm
Kobie Turner
0.6 press/gm
DeMarcus Lawrence
0.8 impact/gm
Byron Young◄
1.1 impact/gm
Josh Jobe◄
0.6 cover/gm
Jaylen Watson
0.4 cover/gm
Ty Okada
0.5 cover/gm
Kamren Kinchens◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
GB
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
NYG
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Jordan Love◄
0.18 EPA/att
Jaxson Dart
0.01 EPA/att
MarShawn Lloyd◄
no 2025 data
Cam Skattebo
-0.05 EPA/tch
Christian Watson◄
0.38 EPA/tgt
Malik Nabers
0.04 EPA/tgt
Tucker Kraft◄
0.62 EPA/tgt
Isaiah Likely
0.10 EPA/tgt
Average◄
5.6% sack rate
Bad
8.4% sack rate
Javon Hargrave◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
DJ Reader
0.1 disrupt/gm
Karl Brooks◄
no 2025 data
Shelby Harris
0.2 press/gm
Edgerrin Cooper
0.6 impact/gm
Brian Burns◄
1.8 impact/gm
Keisean Nixon◄
0.7 cover/gm
Dru Phillips
0.6 cover/gm
Evan Williams◄
0.6 cover/gm
Tyler Nubin
0.3 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
SF
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
ARI
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Brock Purdy◄
0.13 EPA/att
Jacoby Brissett
-0.00 EPA/att
Christian McCaffrey◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Jeremiyah Love
no 2025 data
Mike Evans
0.06 EPA/tgt
Marvin Harrison Jr.◄
0.31 EPA/tgt
George Kittle◄
0.53 EPA/tgt
Trey McBride
0.39 EPA/tgt
Average◄
4.5% sack rate
Bad
8.3% sack rate
Osa Odighizuwa◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Roy Lopez
0.4 disrupt/gm
Keion White
0.2 press/gm
Josh Sweat◄
no 2025 data
Luke Gifford
0.1 impact/gm
Jack Gibbens◄
0.7 impact/gm
Deommodore Lenoir
0.3 cover/gm
Denzel Burke◄
0.7 cover/gm
Ji'Ayir Brown◄
0.5 cover/gm
Budda Baker
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
KC
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
DEN
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
Patrick Mahomes◄
0.10 EPA/att
Bo Nix
0.08 EPA/att
Kenneth Walker III
-0.02 EPA/tch
J.K. Dobbins◄
-0.00 EPA/tch
Rashee Rice
0.15 EPA/tgt
Jaylen Waddle◄
0.27 EPA/tgt
Travis Kelce◄
0.32 EPA/tgt
Evan Engram
0.04 EPA/tgt
Average
7.4% sack rate
Elite◄
3.6% sack rate
Khyiris Tonga
0.1 disrupt/gm
D.J. Jones◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
George Karlaftis
0.8 press/gm
Zach Allen◄
1.1 press/gm
Drue Tranquill
0.7 impact/gm
Nik Bonitto◄
1.2 impact/gm
L'Jarius Sneed
0.2 cover/gm
Riley Moss◄
0.8 cover/gm
Alohi Gilman
0.5 cover/gm
Talanoa Hufanga◄
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
BAL
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
CLE
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Lamar Jackson
0.04 EPA/att
Deshaun Watson◄
no 2025 data
Derrick Henry◄
0.02 EPA/tch
Quinshon Judkins
-0.10 EPA/tch
Zay Flowers◄
0.32 EPA/tgt
Jerry Jeudy
-0.24 EPA/tgt
Mark Andrews◄
0.02 EPA/tgt
Harold Fannin Jr.
0.01 EPA/tgt
Good◄
9.6% sack rate
Bad
8.4% sack rate
Travis Jones◄
0.7 disrupt/gm
Mason Graham
0.4 disrupt/gm
Calais Campbell
0.7 press/gm
Jared Verse◄
0.9 press/gm
Roquan Smith
0.7 impact/gm
Carson Schwesinger◄
0.9 impact/gm
Nate Wiggins
0.7 cover/gm
Tyson Campbell
0.7 cover/gm
Malaki Starks◄
0.5 cover/gm
Grant Delpit
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
CHI
OFF Balanced · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
MIN
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Caleb Williams◄
0.06 EPA/att
Kyler Murray
0.02 EPA/att
D'Andre Swift◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Aaron Jones Sr.
-0.04 EPA/tch
Rome Odunze◄
0.18 EPA/tgt
Justin Jefferson
-0.08 EPA/tgt
Colston Loveland◄
0.47 EPA/tgt
T.J. Hockenson
0.17 EPA/tgt
Elite◄
4.0% sack rate
Bad
11.0% sack rate
Grady Jarrett
0.3 disrupt/gm
Caleb Banks◄
no 2025 data
Montez Sweat◄
0.9 press/gm
Levi Drake Rodriguez
no 2025 data
Devin Bush
0.9 impact/gm
Eric Wilson◄
1.1 impact/gm
Cam Lewis
0.2 cover/gm
Byron Murphy Jr.◄
0.4 cover/gm
Xavier Woods
0.4 cover/gm
Joshua Metellus◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
WAS
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
MIA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Jayden Daniels
-0.01 EPA/att
Malik Willis◄
0.13 EPA/att
Jacory Croskey-Merritt
-0.02 EPA/tch
De'Von Achane◄
0.01 EPA/tch
Terry McLaurin◄
0.36 EPA/tgt
Malik Washington
-0.10 EPA/tgt
Chig Okonkwo
0.13 EPA/tgt
Greg Dulcich◄
0.34 EPA/tgt
Good◄
7.3% sack rate
Good
7.4% sack rate
Daron Payne◄
0.6 disrupt/gm
Jordan Phillips
0.2 disrupt/gm
Tim Settle
no 2025 data
Chop Robinson
no 2025 data
Odafe Oweh
0.7 impact/gm
Jordyn Brooks◄
1.2 impact/gm
Mike Sainristil◄
0.7 cover/gm
Jason Marshall Jr.
0.3 cover/gm
Nick Cross◄
0.5 cover/gm
Dante Trader Jr.
0.2 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
DAL
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
LV
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Dak Prescott◄
0.15 EPA/att
Kirk Cousins
-0.00 EPA/att
Javonte Williams◄
-0.03 EPA/tch
Ashton Jeanty
-0.20 EPA/tch
CeeDee Lamb◄
0.20 EPA/tgt
Tre Tucker
0.18 EPA/tgt
Jake Ferguson
0.16 EPA/tgt
Brock Bowers◄
0.22 EPA/tgt
Elite◄
4.7% sack rate
Bad
11.1% sack rate
Otito Ogbonnia◄
0.3 disrupt/gm
Adam Butler
0.3 disrupt/gm
Quinnen Williams
no 2025 data
Jonah Laulu
no 2025 data
Dee Winters
0.8 impact/gm
Quay Walker◄
0.9 impact/gm
Cobie Durant◄
0.5 cover/gm
Eric Stokes
0.2 cover/gm
Malik Hooker
0.2 cover/gm
Jeremy Chinn◄
0.3 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
DET
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
PHI
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · four-man rush
Jared Goff◄
0.14 EPA/att
Jalen Hurts
0.05 EPA/att
Jahmyr Gibbs◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Saquon Barkley
-0.08 EPA/tch
Amon-Ra St. Brown
0.28 EPA/tgt
DeVonta Smith◄
0.38 EPA/tgt
Sam LaPorta◄
0.54 EPA/tgt
Dallas Goedert
0.36 EPA/tgt
Good◄
6.3% sack rate
Average
6.6% sack rate
Tyleik Williams
0.2 disrupt/gm
Average◄
no data
Aidan Hutchinson◄
1.3 press/gm
Jalen Carter
no 2025 data
Derrick Barnes
0.7 impact/gm
Zack Baun◄
1.0 impact/gm
D.J. Reed
0.5 cover/gm
Quinyon Mitchell◄
0.7 cover/gm
Chuck Clark
0.3 cover/gm
Andrew Mukuba◄
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
LAC
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
JAX
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Justin Herbert
0.02 EPA/att
Trevor Lawrence◄
0.05 EPA/att
Omarion Hampton◄
-0.01 EPA/tch
Bhayshul Tuten
-0.03 EPA/tch
Ladd McConkey
0.05 EPA/tgt
Brian Thomas Jr.◄
0.14 EPA/tgt
Charlie Kolar
0.15 EPA/tgt
Brenton Strange◄
0.40 EPA/tgt
Bad
9.5% sack rate
Bad◄
6.8% sack rate
Dalvin Tomlinson◄
no 2025 data
DaVon Hamilton
0.2 disrupt/gm
Teair Tart
no 2025 data
Josh Hines-Allen◄
1.0 press/gm
Daiyan Henley
0.8 impact/gm
Foyesade Oluokun◄
0.9 impact/gm
Cam Hart
0.5 cover/gm
Montaric Brown◄
0.7 cover/gm
Derwin James Jr.
0.7 cover/gm
Antonio Johnson◄
0.8 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
Winner accuracy by grade, 1070 games. A high grade means a clearer mismatch — but the books know it too, so higher accuracy here does not mean a betting edge.
All validated trends · out-of-sample (2020–2026)
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