We simulate every NFL game on opponent-adjusted net EPA — offense and defense on both sides set the projected margin, scoring rates set the total — then post only the handful we have the most conviction in. Every posted game gets a grade and a projected score, and every one is graded against the real result.
Graded games
75.9%
the games we post · B+ or better
Full slate
62.5%
every game · n=1070
Market
67.4%
closing line · it’s better
Margin error
10.5
points, full slate
Accuracy is measured against the actual final score — did we pick the winner, and how many points off was the margin — not against the betting line. Across 2019–2025 the simulator calls 62.5% of all games straight up. The market’s closing line calls 67.4% — the NFL is the most efficient market in sports, so the full slate is worse than the market and we say so. It is a prediction tool, not a betting edge: it does not beat the spread. Analysis and entertainment, 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.
Board went 1-0 · full slate 9-5 straight up
Our 1 highest-conviction calls out of 14 games this week. We post at most 6, and nothing below a B+ — a thin week posts fewer rather than padding the board.
LV
DEN
16
27
Offense
DEN
Defense
DEN
Called it ✓
LV
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
Every game we simulated this week, highest conviction first. The board above is only the ones that cleared B+— here’s the whole week so nothing’s hidden.
LV
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
DEN
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
Kirk Cousins
-0.00 EPA/att
Bo Nix
The grade is our conviction in our own call — how big the projected margin is. Here is how each grade actually performed across 2019–2025:
Net EPA — opponent-adjusted expected points added on offense and defense, both sides of the ball — sets the projected margin. Scoring rates set the total. Ratings are computed as of that week’s kickoff, using only games already played, so nothing is graded with hindsight. Early in the season a team carries its prior-year rating until it has enough games to stand on its own.
It does not beat the spread. The NFL market is the sharpest in sports. We publish this because the projection and the matchup are interesting and we grade ourselves honestly against the real score — not because it prints money.
Also on our board
Separate from the simulator: situational trends mined from 1999–2026 seasons and validated out-of-sample. Only the ones that actually hold up.
The Sizzlin NFL Simulator is analysis and entertainment — not betting advice or a guaranteed outcome. 21+. 1-800-GAMBLER.
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
DEN
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
Kirk Cousins
-0.00 EPA/att
Bo Nix◄
0.08 EPA/att
Ashton Jeanty
-0.20 EPA/tch
J.K. Dobbins◄
-0.00 EPA/tch
Tre Tucker
0.18 EPA/tgt
Jaylen Waddle◄
0.27 EPA/tgt
Brock Bowers◄
0.22 EPA/tgt
Evan Engram
0.04 EPA/tgt
Bad
11.1% sack rate
Elite◄
3.6% sack rate
Adam Butler
0.3 disrupt/gm
D.J. Jones◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Jonah Laulu
no 2025 data
Zach Allen◄
1.1 press/gm
Quay Walker
0.9 impact/gm
Nik Bonitto◄
1.2 impact/gm
Eric Stokes
0.2 cover/gm
Riley Moss◄
0.8 cover/gm
Jeremy Chinn
0.3 cover/gm
Talanoa Hufanga◄
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
0.08 EPA/att
Ashton Jeanty
-0.20 EPA/tch
J.K. Dobbins◄
-0.00 EPA/tch
Tre Tucker
0.18 EPA/tgt
Jaylen Waddle◄
0.27 EPA/tgt
Brock Bowers◄
0.22 EPA/tgt
Evan Engram
0.04 EPA/tgt
Bad
11.1% sack rate
Elite◄
3.6% sack rate
Adam Butler
0.3 disrupt/gm
D.J. Jones◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Jonah Laulu
no 2025 data
Zach Allen◄
1.1 press/gm
Quay Walker
0.9 impact/gm
Nik Bonitto◄
1.2 impact/gm
Eric Stokes
0.2 cover/gm
Riley Moss◄
0.8 cover/gm
Jeremy Chinn
0.3 cover/gm
Talanoa Hufanga◄
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
NYG
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
CHI
OFF Balanced · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
Jaxson Dart
0.01 EPA/att
Caleb Williams◄
0.06 EPA/att
Cam Skattebo
-0.05 EPA/tch
D'Andre Swift◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Malik Nabers
0.04 EPA/tgt
Rome Odunze◄
0.18 EPA/tgt
Isaiah Likely
0.10 EPA/tgt
Colston Loveland◄
0.47 EPA/tgt
Bad
8.4% sack rate
Elite◄
4.0% sack rate
DJ Reader
0.1 disrupt/gm
Grady Jarrett◄
0.3 disrupt/gm
Shelby Harris
0.2 press/gm
Montez Sweat◄
0.9 press/gm
Brian Burns◄
1.8 impact/gm
Devin Bush
0.9 impact/gm
Dru Phillips◄
0.6 cover/gm
Cam Lewis
0.2 cover/gm
Tyler Nubin
0.3 cover/gm
Xavier Woods◄
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
ATL
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
IND
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Michael Penix Jr.
0.01 EPA/att
Daniel Jones◄
0.11 EPA/att
Bijan Robinson
0.03 EPA/tch
Jonathan Taylor◄
0.07 EPA/tch
Drake London
0.18 EPA/tgt
Alec Pierce◄
0.49 EPA/tgt
Kyle Pitts Sr.◄
0.18 EPA/tgt
Tyler Warren
0.12 EPA/tgt
Elite◄
4.6% sack rate
Good
5.0% sack rate
Gervon Dexter Sr.◄
0.7 disrupt/gm
Grover Stewart
0.3 disrupt/gm
Brandon Dorlus
0.8 press/gm
Laiatu Latu◄
0.9 press/gm
Divine Deablo◄
0.7 impact/gm
Akeem Davis-Gaither
0.5 impact/gm
A.J. Terrell Jr.◄
0.5 cover/gm
Sauce Gardner
0.5 cover/gm
Jessie Bates III
0.6 cover/gm
Cam Bynum◄
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
ARI
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
SEA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Jacoby Brissett
-0.00 EPA/att
Sam Darnold◄
0.11 EPA/att
Jeremiyah Love
no 2025 data
Brady Russell◄
-0.01 EPA/tch
Marvin Harrison Jr.
0.31 EPA/tgt
Jaxon Smith-Njigba◄
0.47 EPA/tgt
Trey McBride◄
0.39 EPA/tgt
AJ Barner
0.32 EPA/tgt
Bad
8.3% sack rate
Average◄
5.3% sack rate
Roy Lopez
0.4 disrupt/gm
Byron Murphy II◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Josh Sweat
no 2025 data
Leonard Williams
0.8 press/gm
Jack Gibbens
0.7 impact/gm
DeMarcus Lawrence◄
0.8 impact/gm
Denzel Burke◄
0.7 cover/gm
Josh Jobe
0.6 cover/gm
Budda Baker
0.5 cover/gm
Ty Okada◄
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
JAX
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
HOU
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Trevor Lawrence
0.05 EPA/att
C.J. Stroud◄
0.08 EPA/att
Bhayshul Tuten
-0.03 EPA/tch
David Montgomery◄
0.02 EPA/tch
Brian Thomas Jr.
0.14 EPA/tgt
Nico Collins◄
0.26 EPA/tgt
Brenton Strange◄
0.40 EPA/tgt
Dalton Schultz
0.29 EPA/tgt
Bad
6.8% sack rate
Average◄
5.1% sack rate
DaVon Hamilton
0.2 disrupt/gm
Tommy Togiai◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Josh Hines-Allen
1.0 press/gm
Will Anderson Jr.◄
1.2 press/gm
Foyesade Oluokun◄
0.9 impact/gm
Henry To'oTo'o
0.8 impact/gm
Montaric Brown
0.7 cover/gm
Kamari Lassiter◄
1.0 cover/gm
Antonio Johnson◄
0.8 cover/gm
Reed Blankenship
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
BUF
OFF Run-heavy · under-center
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
MIA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Josh Allen
0.11 EPA/att
Malik Willis◄
0.13 EPA/att
James Cook III◄
0.04 EPA/tch
De'Von Achane
0.01 EPA/tch
DJ Moore◄
0.12 EPA/tgt
Malik Washington
-0.10 EPA/tgt
Dalton Kincaid◄
0.58 EPA/tgt
Greg Dulcich
0.34 EPA/tgt
Good◄
7.5% sack rate
Good
7.4% sack rate
Deone Walker◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Jordan Phillips
0.2 disrupt/gm
T.J. Sanders
no 2025 data
Chop Robinson
no 2025 data
Greg Rousseau
0.7 impact/gm
Jordyn Brooks◄
1.2 impact/gm
Dee Alford◄
0.8 cover/gm
Jason Marshall Jr.
0.3 cover/gm
Cole Bishop◄
0.7 cover/gm
Dante Trader Jr.
0.2 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
PIT
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
LAC
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Aaron Rodgers◄
0.04 EPA/att
Justin Herbert
0.02 EPA/att
Jaylen Warren◄
0.03 EPA/tch
Omarion Hampton
-0.01 EPA/tch
DK Metcalf◄
0.26 EPA/tgt
Ladd McConkey
0.05 EPA/tgt
Darnell Washington◄
0.24 EPA/tgt
Charlie Kolar
0.15 EPA/tgt
Good◄
5.3% sack rate
Bad
9.5% sack rate
Keeanu Benton◄
0.6 disrupt/gm
Dalvin Tomlinson
no 2025 data
Cameron Heyward
0.4 press/gm
Teair Tart◄
no 2025 data
Payton Wilson
0.7 impact/gm
Daiyan Henley◄
0.8 impact/gm
Jalen Ramsey
0.4 cover/gm
Cam Hart◄
0.5 cover/gm
Jaquan Brisker
0.6 cover/gm
Derwin James Jr.◄
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
PHI
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · four-man rush
GB
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Jalen Hurts
0.05 EPA/att
Jordan Love◄
0.18 EPA/att
Saquon Barkley
-0.08 EPA/tch
MarShawn Lloyd◄
no 2025 data
DeVonta Smith
0.38 EPA/tgt
Christian Watson◄
0.38 EPA/tgt
Dallas Goedert
0.36 EPA/tgt
Tucker Kraft◄
0.62 EPA/tgt
Average
6.6% sack rate
Average◄
5.6% sack rate
Average
no data
Javon Hargrave◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Jalen Carter
no 2025 data
Karl Brooks
no 2025 data
Zack Baun◄
1.0 impact/gm
Edgerrin Cooper
0.6 impact/gm
Quinyon Mitchell
0.7 cover/gm
Keisean Nixon◄
0.7 cover/gm
Andrew Mukuba
0.4 cover/gm
Evan Williams◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
NO
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
CAR
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Tyler Shough◄
0.00 EPA/att
Bryce Young
-0.03 EPA/att
Travis Etienne Jr.◄
-0.03 EPA/tch
Chuba Hubbard
-0.05 EPA/tch
Chris Olave◄
0.19 EPA/tgt
Tetairoa McMillan
0.17 EPA/tgt
Juwan Johnson◄
0.29 EPA/tgt
Tommy Tremble
0.15 EPA/tgt
Bad
7.7% sack rate
Average◄
6.4% sack rate
Davon Godchaux
0.1 disrupt/gm
Lee Hunter◄
no 2025 data
Colby Wooden
0.2 press/gm
Derrick Brown◄
no 2025 data
Kaden Elliss◄
1.0 impact/gm
Bobby Okereke
0.7 impact/gm
Kool-Aid McKinstry
0.9 cover/gm
Mike Jackson◄
1.0 cover/gm
Justin Reid◄
0.5 cover/gm
Nick Scott
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
DET
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
WAS
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Jared Goff◄
0.14 EPA/att
Jayden Daniels
-0.01 EPA/att
Jahmyr Gibbs◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Jacory Croskey-Merritt
-0.02 EPA/tch
Amon-Ra St. Brown
0.28 EPA/tgt
Terry McLaurin◄
0.36 EPA/tgt
Sam LaPorta◄
0.54 EPA/tgt
Chig Okonkwo
0.13 EPA/tgt
Good◄
6.3% sack rate
Good
7.3% sack rate
Tyleik Williams
0.2 disrupt/gm
Daron Payne◄
0.6 disrupt/gm
Aidan Hutchinson◄
1.3 press/gm
Tim Settle
no 2025 data
Derrick Barnes
0.7 impact/gm
Odafe Oweh◄
0.7 impact/gm
D.J. Reed
0.5 cover/gm
Mike Sainristil◄
0.7 cover/gm
Chuck Clark
0.3 cover/gm
Nick Cross◄
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
NE
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
TB
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Drake Maye◄
0.25 EPA/att
Baker Mayfield
0.00 EPA/att
Rhamondre Stevenson◄
-0.02 EPA/tch
Bucky Irving
-0.10 EPA/tch
Romeo Doubs◄
0.30 EPA/tgt
Emeka Egbuka
0.05 EPA/tgt
Hunter Henry◄
0.36 EPA/tgt
Cade Otton
0.03 EPA/tgt
Average
8.7% sack rate
Average◄
6.4% sack rate
Cory Durden
0.2 disrupt/gm
Vita Vea◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Christian Barmore
no 2025 data
Calijah Kancey
no 2025 data
Dre'Mont Jones
0.6 impact/gm
Yaya Diaby◄
0.9 impact/gm
Carlton Davis III
0.4 cover/gm
Jacob Parrish◄
0.4 cover/gm
Craig Woodson
0.3 cover/gm
Antoine Winfield Jr.◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
CLE
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
NYJ
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Deshaun Watson◄
no 2025 data
Geno Smith
-0.12 EPA/att
Quinshon Judkins
-0.10 EPA/tch
Breece Hall◄
-0.04 EPA/tch
Jerry Jeudy
-0.24 EPA/tgt
Garrett Wilson◄
-0.02 EPA/tgt
Harold Fannin Jr.
0.01 EPA/tgt
Mason Taylor◄
0.12 EPA/tgt
Bad
8.4% sack rate
Bad◄
10.8% sack rate
Mason Graham◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Harrison Phillips
0.2 disrupt/gm
Jared Verse
0.9 press/gm
Will McDonald IV◄
0.9 press/gm
Carson Schwesinger
0.9 impact/gm
Jamien Sherwood◄
1.0 impact/gm
Tyson Campbell
0.7 cover/gm
Nahshon Wright◄
0.8 cover/gm
Grant Delpit
0.4 cover/gm
Dane Belton◄
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
BAL
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
MIN
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Lamar Jackson◄
0.04 EPA/att
Kyler Murray
0.02 EPA/att
Derrick Henry◄
0.02 EPA/tch
Aaron Jones Sr.
-0.04 EPA/tch
Zay Flowers◄
0.32 EPA/tgt
Justin Jefferson
-0.08 EPA/tgt
Mark Andrews
0.02 EPA/tgt
T.J. Hockenson◄
0.17 EPA/tgt
Good◄
9.6% sack rate
Bad
11.0% sack rate
Travis Jones◄
0.7 disrupt/gm
Caleb Banks
no 2025 data
Calais Campbell
0.7 press/gm
Levi Drake Rodriguez◄
no 2025 data
Roquan Smith
0.7 impact/gm
Eric Wilson◄
1.1 impact/gm
Nate Wiggins◄
0.7 cover/gm
Byron Murphy Jr.
0.4 cover/gm
Malaki Starks
0.5 cover/gm
Joshua Metellus◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
LA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
SF
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Matthew Stafford◄
0.19 EPA/att
Brock Purdy
0.13 EPA/att
Kyren Williams◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Christian McCaffrey
0.04 EPA/tch
Puka Nacua◄
0.59 EPA/tgt
Mike Evans
0.06 EPA/tgt
Colby Parkinson
0.17 EPA/tgt
George Kittle◄
0.53 EPA/tgt
Elite◄
3.7% sack rate
Average
4.5% sack rate
Poona Ford
0.3 disrupt/gm
Osa Odighizuwa◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Kobie Turner◄
0.6 press/gm
Keion White
0.2 press/gm
Byron Young◄
1.1 impact/gm
Luke Gifford
0.1 impact/gm
Jaylen Watson◄
0.4 cover/gm
Deommodore Lenoir
0.3 cover/gm
Kamren Kinchens◄
0.6 cover/gm
Ji'Ayir Brown
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
Winner accuracy by grade, 1070 games. A high grade means a clearer mismatch — but the books know it too, so higher accuracy here does not mean a betting edge.
All validated trends · out-of-sample (2020–2026)
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