We simulate every NFL game on opponent-adjusted net EPA — offense and defense on both sides set the projected margin, scoring rates set the total — then post only the handful we have the most conviction in. Every posted game gets a grade and a projected score, and every one is graded against the real result.
Graded games
75.9%
the games we post · B+ or better
Full slate
62.5%
every game · n=1070
Market
67.4%
closing line · it’s better
Margin error
10.5
points, full slate
Accuracy is measured against the actual final score — did we pick the winner, and how many points off was the margin — not against the betting line. Across 2019–2025 the simulator calls 62.5% of all games straight up. The market’s closing line calls 67.4% — the NFL is the most efficient market in sports, so the full slate is worse than the market and we say so. It is a prediction tool, not a betting edge: it does not beat the spread. Analysis and entertainment, 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.
Board went 3-0 · full slate 12-4 straight up
Our 3 highest-conviction calls out of 16 games this week. We post at most 6, and nothing below a B+ — a thin week posts fewer rather than padding the board.
DAL
PHI
18
29
Offense
PHI
Defense
PHI
Called it ✓
DAL
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
Every game we simulated this week, highest conviction first. The board above is only the ones that cleared B+— here’s the whole week so nothing’s hidden.
DAL
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
PHI
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · four-man rush
Dak Prescott◄
0.15 EPA/att
The grade is our conviction in our own call — how big the projected margin is. Here is how each grade actually performed across 2019–2025:
Net EPA — opponent-adjusted expected points added on offense and defense, both sides of the ball — sets the projected margin. Scoring rates set the total. Ratings are computed as of that week’s kickoff, using only games already played, so nothing is graded with hindsight. Early in the season a team carries its prior-year rating until it has enough games to stand on its own.
It does not beat the spread. The NFL market is the sharpest in sports. We publish this because the projection and the matchup are interesting and we grade ourselves honestly against the real score — not because it prints money.
Also on our board
Separate from the simulator: situational trends mined from 1999–2026 seasons and validated out-of-sample. Only the ones that actually hold up.
The Sizzlin NFL Simulator is analysis and entertainment — not betting advice or a guaranteed outcome. 21+. 1-800-GAMBLER.
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
PHI
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · four-man rush
Dak Prescott◄
0.15 EPA/att
Jalen Hurts
0.05 EPA/att
Javonte Williams◄
-0.03 EPA/tch
Saquon Barkley
-0.08 EPA/tch
CeeDee Lamb
0.20 EPA/tgt
DeVonta Smith◄
0.38 EPA/tgt
Jake Ferguson
0.16 EPA/tgt
Dallas Goedert◄
0.36 EPA/tgt
Elite◄
4.7% sack rate
Average
6.6% sack rate
Otito Ogbonnia
0.3 disrupt/gm
Average◄
no data
Quinnen Williams
no 2025 data
Jalen Carter
no 2025 data
Dee Winters
0.8 impact/gm
Zack Baun◄
1.0 impact/gm
Cobie Durant
0.5 cover/gm
Quinyon Mitchell◄
0.7 cover/gm
Malik Hooker
0.2 cover/gm
Andrew Mukuba◄
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
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Jalen Hurts
0.05 EPA/att
Javonte Williams◄
-0.03 EPA/tch
Saquon Barkley
-0.08 EPA/tch
CeeDee Lamb
0.20 EPA/tgt
DeVonta Smith◄
0.38 EPA/tgt
Jake Ferguson
0.16 EPA/tgt
Dallas Goedert◄
0.36 EPA/tgt
Elite◄
4.7% sack rate
Average
6.6% sack rate
Otito Ogbonnia
0.3 disrupt/gm
Average◄
no data
Quinnen Williams
no 2025 data
Jalen Carter
no 2025 data
Dee Winters
0.8 impact/gm
Zack Baun◄
1.0 impact/gm
Cobie Durant
0.5 cover/gm
Quinyon Mitchell◄
0.7 cover/gm
Malik Hooker
0.2 cover/gm
Andrew Mukuba◄
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
NYG
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
WAS
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Jaxson Dart◄
0.01 EPA/att
Jayden Daniels
-0.01 EPA/att
Cam Skattebo
-0.05 EPA/tch
Jacory Croskey-Merritt◄
-0.02 EPA/tch
Malik Nabers
0.04 EPA/tgt
Terry McLaurin◄
0.36 EPA/tgt
Isaiah Likely
0.10 EPA/tgt
Chig Okonkwo◄
0.13 EPA/tgt
Bad
8.4% sack rate
Good◄
7.3% sack rate
DJ Reader
0.1 disrupt/gm
Daron Payne◄
0.6 disrupt/gm
Shelby Harris
0.2 press/gm
Tim Settle◄
no 2025 data
Brian Burns◄
1.8 impact/gm
Odafe Oweh
0.7 impact/gm
Dru Phillips
0.6 cover/gm
Mike Sainristil◄
0.7 cover/gm
Tyler Nubin
0.3 cover/gm
Nick Cross◄
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
TEN
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
DEN
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
Cam Ward
-0.15 EPA/att
Bo Nix◄
0.08 EPA/att
Tony Pollard
-0.10 EPA/tch
J.K. Dobbins◄
-0.00 EPA/tch
Carnell Tate
no 2025 data
Jaylen Waddle◄
0.27 EPA/tgt
Gunnar Helm◄
0.05 EPA/tgt
Evan Engram
0.04 EPA/tgt
Bad
8.9% sack rate
Elite◄
3.6% sack rate
Jeffery Simmons◄
1.5 disrupt/gm
D.J. Jones
0.4 disrupt/gm
Jermaine Johnson II
0.3 press/gm
Zach Allen◄
1.1 press/gm
Cody Barton
0.7 impact/gm
Nik Bonitto◄
1.2 impact/gm
Alontae Taylor
0.6 cover/gm
Riley Moss◄
0.8 cover/gm
Amani Hooker
0.5 cover/gm
Talanoa Hufanga◄
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
CAR
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
JAX
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Bryce Young
-0.03 EPA/att
Trevor Lawrence◄
0.05 EPA/att
Chuba Hubbard
-0.05 EPA/tch
Bhayshul Tuten◄
-0.03 EPA/tch
Tetairoa McMillan◄
0.17 EPA/tgt
Brian Thomas Jr.
0.14 EPA/tgt
Tommy Tremble
0.15 EPA/tgt
Brenton Strange◄
0.40 EPA/tgt
Average◄
6.4% sack rate
Bad
6.8% sack rate
Lee Hunter◄
no 2025 data
DaVon Hamilton
0.2 disrupt/gm
Derrick Brown
no 2025 data
Josh Hines-Allen◄
1.0 press/gm
Bobby Okereke
0.7 impact/gm
Foyesade Oluokun◄
0.9 impact/gm
Mike Jackson◄
1.0 cover/gm
Montaric Brown
0.7 cover/gm
Nick Scott
0.4 cover/gm
Antonio Johnson◄
0.8 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
CIN
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
CLE
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Joe Burrow◄
0.08 EPA/att
Deshaun Watson
no 2025 data
Chase Brown◄
-0.04 EPA/tch
Quinshon Judkins
-0.10 EPA/tch
Ja'Marr Chase◄
0.19 EPA/tgt
Jerry Jeudy
-0.24 EPA/tgt
Mike Gesicki◄
0.07 EPA/tgt
Harold Fannin Jr.
0.01 EPA/tgt
Good◄
5.3% sack rate
Bad
8.4% sack rate
Dexter Lawrence II
0.3 disrupt/gm
Mason Graham◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Boye Mafe
0.2 press/gm
Jared Verse◄
0.9 press/gm
Demetrius Knight Jr.
0.8 impact/gm
Carson Schwesinger◄
0.9 impact/gm
Dax Hill
0.5 cover/gm
Tyson Campbell◄
0.7 cover/gm
Jordan Battle◄
0.7 cover/gm
Grant Delpit
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
LV
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
NE
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Kirk Cousins
-0.00 EPA/att
Drake Maye◄
0.25 EPA/att
Ashton Jeanty
-0.20 EPA/tch
Rhamondre Stevenson◄
-0.02 EPA/tch
Tre Tucker
0.18 EPA/tgt
Romeo Doubs◄
0.30 EPA/tgt
Brock Bowers
0.22 EPA/tgt
Hunter Henry◄
0.36 EPA/tgt
Bad
11.1% sack rate
Average◄
8.7% sack rate
Adam Butler◄
0.3 disrupt/gm
Cory Durden
0.2 disrupt/gm
Jonah Laulu
no 2025 data
Christian Barmore
no 2025 data
Quay Walker◄
0.9 impact/gm
Dre'Mont Jones
0.6 impact/gm
Eric Stokes
0.2 cover/gm
Carlton Davis III◄
0.4 cover/gm
Jeremy Chinn◄
0.3 cover/gm
Craig Woodson
0.3 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
PIT
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
NYJ
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Aaron Rodgers◄
0.04 EPA/att
Geno Smith
-0.12 EPA/att
Jaylen Warren◄
0.03 EPA/tch
Breece Hall
-0.04 EPA/tch
DK Metcalf◄
0.26 EPA/tgt
Garrett Wilson
-0.02 EPA/tgt
Darnell Washington◄
0.24 EPA/tgt
Mason Taylor
0.12 EPA/tgt
Good◄
5.3% sack rate
Bad
10.8% sack rate
Keeanu Benton◄
0.6 disrupt/gm
Harrison Phillips
0.2 disrupt/gm
Cameron Heyward
0.4 press/gm
Will McDonald IV◄
0.9 press/gm
Payton Wilson
0.7 impact/gm
Jamien Sherwood◄
1.0 impact/gm
Jalen Ramsey
0.4 cover/gm
Nahshon Wright◄
0.8 cover/gm
Jaquan Brisker◄
0.6 cover/gm
Dane Belton
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
MIN
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
CHI
OFF Balanced · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
Kyler Murray
0.02 EPA/att
Caleb Williams◄
0.06 EPA/att
Aaron Jones Sr.
-0.04 EPA/tch
D'Andre Swift◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Justin Jefferson
-0.08 EPA/tgt
Rome Odunze◄
0.18 EPA/tgt
T.J. Hockenson
0.17 EPA/tgt
Colston Loveland◄
0.47 EPA/tgt
Bad
11.0% sack rate
Elite◄
4.0% sack rate
Caleb Banks◄
no 2025 data
Grady Jarrett
0.3 disrupt/gm
Levi Drake Rodriguez
no 2025 data
Montez Sweat◄
0.9 press/gm
Eric Wilson◄
1.1 impact/gm
Devin Bush
0.9 impact/gm
Byron Murphy Jr.◄
0.4 cover/gm
Cam Lewis
0.2 cover/gm
Joshua Metellus◄
0.6 cover/gm
Xavier Woods
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
SF
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
SEA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Brock Purdy◄
0.13 EPA/att
Sam Darnold
0.11 EPA/att
Christian McCaffrey◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Brady Russell
-0.01 EPA/tch
Mike Evans
0.06 EPA/tgt
Jaxon Smith-Njigba◄
0.47 EPA/tgt
George Kittle◄
0.53 EPA/tgt
AJ Barner
0.32 EPA/tgt
Average
4.5% sack rate
Average◄
5.3% sack rate
Osa Odighizuwa
0.8 disrupt/gm
Byron Murphy II◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Keion White
0.2 press/gm
Leonard Williams◄
0.8 press/gm
Luke Gifford
0.1 impact/gm
DeMarcus Lawrence◄
0.8 impact/gm
Deommodore Lenoir
0.3 cover/gm
Josh Jobe◄
0.6 cover/gm
Ji'Ayir Brown◄
0.5 cover/gm
Ty Okada
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
HOU
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
LA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
C.J. Stroud
0.08 EPA/att
Matthew Stafford◄
0.19 EPA/att
David Montgomery
0.02 EPA/tch
Kyren Williams◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Nico Collins
0.26 EPA/tgt
Puka Nacua◄
0.59 EPA/tgt
Dalton Schultz◄
0.29 EPA/tgt
Colby Parkinson
0.17 EPA/tgt
Average
5.1% sack rate
Elite◄
3.7% sack rate
Tommy Togiai◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Poona Ford
0.3 disrupt/gm
Will Anderson Jr.◄
1.2 press/gm
Kobie Turner
0.6 press/gm
Henry To'oTo'o
0.8 impact/gm
Byron Young◄
1.1 impact/gm
Kamari Lassiter◄
1.0 cover/gm
Jaylen Watson
0.4 cover/gm
Reed Blankenship
0.4 cover/gm
Kamren Kinchens◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
MIA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
IND
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Malik Willis◄
0.13 EPA/att
Daniel Jones
0.11 EPA/att
De'Von Achane
0.01 EPA/tch
Jonathan Taylor◄
0.07 EPA/tch
Malik Washington
-0.10 EPA/tgt
Alec Pierce◄
0.49 EPA/tgt
Greg Dulcich◄
0.34 EPA/tgt
Tyler Warren
0.12 EPA/tgt
Good
7.4% sack rate
Good◄
5.0% sack rate
Jordan Phillips
0.2 disrupt/gm
Grover Stewart◄
0.3 disrupt/gm
Chop Robinson
no 2025 data
Laiatu Latu◄
0.9 press/gm
Jordyn Brooks◄
1.2 impact/gm
Akeem Davis-Gaither
0.5 impact/gm
Jason Marshall Jr.
0.3 cover/gm
Sauce Gardner◄
0.5 cover/gm
Dante Trader Jr.
0.2 cover/gm
Cam Bynum◄
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
KC
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
LAC
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Patrick Mahomes◄
0.10 EPA/att
Justin Herbert
0.02 EPA/att
Kenneth Walker III
-0.02 EPA/tch
Omarion Hampton◄
-0.01 EPA/tch
Rashee Rice◄
0.15 EPA/tgt
Ladd McConkey
0.05 EPA/tgt
Travis Kelce◄
0.32 EPA/tgt
Charlie Kolar
0.15 EPA/tgt
Average◄
7.4% sack rate
Bad
9.5% sack rate
Khyiris Tonga
0.1 disrupt/gm
Dalvin Tomlinson◄
no 2025 data
George Karlaftis
0.8 press/gm
Teair Tart
no 2025 data
Drue Tranquill
0.7 impact/gm
Daiyan Henley◄
0.8 impact/gm
L'Jarius Sneed
0.2 cover/gm
Cam Hart◄
0.5 cover/gm
Alohi Gilman
0.5 cover/gm
Derwin James Jr.◄
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
DET
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
GB
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Jared Goff
0.14 EPA/att
Jordan Love◄
0.18 EPA/att
Jahmyr Gibbs◄
0.04 EPA/tch
MarShawn Lloyd
no 2025 data
Amon-Ra St. Brown
0.28 EPA/tgt
Christian Watson◄
0.38 EPA/tgt
Sam LaPorta
0.54 EPA/tgt
Tucker Kraft◄
0.62 EPA/tgt
Good◄
6.3% sack rate
Average
5.6% sack rate
Tyleik Williams
0.2 disrupt/gm
Javon Hargrave◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Aidan Hutchinson◄
1.3 press/gm
Karl Brooks
no 2025 data
Derrick Barnes◄
0.7 impact/gm
Edgerrin Cooper
0.6 impact/gm
D.J. Reed
0.5 cover/gm
Keisean Nixon◄
0.7 cover/gm
Chuck Clark
0.3 cover/gm
Evan Williams◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
BAL
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
BUF
OFF Run-heavy · under-center
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Lamar Jackson
0.04 EPA/att
Josh Allen◄
0.11 EPA/att
Derrick Henry
0.02 EPA/tch
James Cook III◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Zay Flowers◄
0.32 EPA/tgt
DJ Moore
0.12 EPA/tgt
Mark Andrews
0.02 EPA/tgt
Dalton Kincaid◄
0.58 EPA/tgt
Good
9.6% sack rate
Good◄
7.5% sack rate
Travis Jones◄
0.7 disrupt/gm
Deone Walker
0.4 disrupt/gm
Calais Campbell
0.7 press/gm
T.J. Sanders◄
no 2025 data
Roquan Smith◄
0.7 impact/gm
Greg Rousseau
0.7 impact/gm
Nate Wiggins
0.7 cover/gm
Dee Alford◄
0.8 cover/gm
Malaki Starks
0.5 cover/gm
Cole Bishop◄
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
ARI
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
NO
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Jacoby Brissett
-0.00 EPA/att
Tyler Shough◄
0.00 EPA/att
Jeremiyah Love◄
no 2025 data
Travis Etienne Jr.
-0.03 EPA/tch
Marvin Harrison Jr.◄
0.31 EPA/tgt
Chris Olave
0.19 EPA/tgt
Trey McBride◄
0.39 EPA/tgt
Juwan Johnson
0.29 EPA/tgt
Bad◄
8.3% sack rate
Bad
7.7% sack rate
Roy Lopez◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Davon Godchaux
0.1 disrupt/gm
Josh Sweat◄
no 2025 data
Colby Wooden
0.2 press/gm
Jack Gibbens
0.7 impact/gm
Kaden Elliss◄
1.0 impact/gm
Denzel Burke
0.7 cover/gm
Kool-Aid McKinstry◄
0.9 cover/gm
Budda Baker◄
0.5 cover/gm
Justin Reid
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
TB
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
ATL
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Baker Mayfield
0.00 EPA/att
Michael Penix Jr.◄
0.01 EPA/att
Bucky Irving
-0.10 EPA/tch
Bijan Robinson◄
0.03 EPA/tch
Emeka Egbuka
0.05 EPA/tgt
Drake London◄
0.18 EPA/tgt
Cade Otton
0.03 EPA/tgt
Kyle Pitts Sr.◄
0.18 EPA/tgt
Average
6.4% sack rate
Elite◄
4.6% sack rate
Vita Vea◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Gervon Dexter Sr.
0.7 disrupt/gm
Calijah Kancey◄
no 2025 data
Brandon Dorlus
0.8 press/gm
Yaya Diaby◄
0.9 impact/gm
Divine Deablo
0.7 impact/gm
Jacob Parrish
0.4 cover/gm
A.J. Terrell Jr.◄
0.5 cover/gm
Antoine Winfield Jr.
0.6 cover/gm
Jessie Bates III◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
Winner accuracy by grade, 1070 games. A high grade means a clearer mismatch — but the books know it too, so higher accuracy here does not mean a betting edge.
All validated trends · out-of-sample (2020–2026)
NFL · Members
The full board, confidence ratings, and daily plays — plus the complete track record. New plays every morning. The track record and featured picks above stay free.
NFL Pass
$9.99/mo
Just NFL
All-AccessBest value
$29.99/mo
All 5 sports
Secure checkout via Stripe. Cancel anytime. 21+. Bet responsibly.
