We simulate every NFL game on opponent-adjusted net EPA — offense and defense on both sides set the projected margin, scoring rates set the total — then post only the handful we have the most conviction in. Every posted game gets a grade and a projected score, and every one is graded against the real result.
Graded games
75.9%
the games we post · B+ or better
Full slate
62.5%
every game · n=1070
Market
67.4%
closing line · it’s better
Margin error
10.5
points, full slate
Accuracy is measured against the actual final score — did we pick the winner, and how many points off was the margin — not against the betting line. Across 2019–2025 the simulator calls 62.5% of all games straight up. The market’s closing line calls 67.4% — the NFL is the most efficient market in sports, so the full slate is worse than the market and we say so. It is a prediction tool, not a betting edge: it does not beat the spread. Analysis and entertainment, 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.
Board went 4-0 · full slate 11-5 straight up
Our 4 highest-conviction calls out of 16 games this week. We post at most 6, and nothing below a B+ — a thin week posts fewer rather than padding the board.
CAR
DEN
15
28
Offense
DEN
Defense
DEN
Called it ✓
CAR
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
DEN
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
Every game we simulated this week, highest conviction first. The board above is only the ones that cleared B+— here’s the whole week so nothing’s hidden.
CAR
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
DEN
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
Bryce Young
-0.03 EPA/att
Bo Nix
The grade is our conviction in our own call — how big the projected margin is. Here is how each grade actually performed across 2019–2025:
Net EPA — opponent-adjusted expected points added on offense and defense, both sides of the ball — sets the projected margin. Scoring rates set the total. Ratings are computed as of that week’s kickoff, using only games already played, so nothing is graded with hindsight. Early in the season a team carries its prior-year rating until it has enough games to stand on its own.
It does not beat the spread. The NFL market is the sharpest in sports. We publish this because the projection and the matchup are interesting and we grade ourselves honestly against the real score — not because it prints money.
Also on our board
Separate from the simulator: situational trends mined from 1999–2026 seasons and validated out-of-sample. Only the ones that actually hold up.
The Sizzlin NFL Simulator is analysis and entertainment — not betting advice or a guaranteed outcome. 21+. 1-800-GAMBLER.
Bryce Young
-0.03 EPA/att
Bo Nix◄
0.08 EPA/att
Chuba Hubbard
-0.05 EPA/tch
J.K. Dobbins◄
-0.00 EPA/tch
Tetairoa McMillan
0.17 EPA/tgt
Jaylen Waddle◄
0.27 EPA/tgt
Tommy Tremble◄
0.15 EPA/tgt
Evan Engram
0.04 EPA/tgt
Average
6.4% sack rate
Elite◄
3.6% sack rate
Lee Hunter
no 2025 data
D.J. Jones◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Derrick Brown
no 2025 data
Zach Allen◄
1.1 press/gm
Bobby Okereke
0.7 impact/gm
Nik Bonitto◄
1.2 impact/gm
Mike Jackson◄
1.0 cover/gm
Riley Moss
0.8 cover/gm
Nick Scott
0.4 cover/gm
Talanoa Hufanga◄
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
NFL · Members
The full board, confidence ratings, and daily plays — plus the complete track record. New plays every morning. The track record and featured picks above stay free.
NFL Pass
$9.99/mo
Just NFL
All-AccessBest value
$29.99/mo
All 5 sports
Secure checkout via Stripe. Cancel anytime. 21+. Bet responsibly.
0.08 EPA/att
Chuba Hubbard
-0.05 EPA/tch
J.K. Dobbins◄
-0.00 EPA/tch
Tetairoa McMillan
0.17 EPA/tgt
Jaylen Waddle◄
0.27 EPA/tgt
Tommy Tremble◄
0.15 EPA/tgt
Evan Engram
0.04 EPA/tgt
Average
6.4% sack rate
Elite◄
3.6% sack rate
Lee Hunter
no 2025 data
D.J. Jones◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Derrick Brown
no 2025 data
Zach Allen◄
1.1 press/gm
Bobby Okereke
0.7 impact/gm
Nik Bonitto◄
1.2 impact/gm
Mike Jackson◄
1.0 cover/gm
Riley Moss
0.8 cover/gm
Nick Scott
0.4 cover/gm
Talanoa Hufanga◄
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
TEN
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
DET
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
Cam Ward
-0.15 EPA/att
Jared Goff◄
0.14 EPA/att
Tony Pollard
-0.10 EPA/tch
Jahmyr Gibbs◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Carnell Tate
no 2025 data
Amon-Ra St. Brown◄
0.28 EPA/tgt
Gunnar Helm
0.05 EPA/tgt
Sam LaPorta◄
0.54 EPA/tgt
Bad
8.9% sack rate
Good◄
6.3% sack rate
Jeffery Simmons◄
1.5 disrupt/gm
Tyleik Williams
0.2 disrupt/gm
Jermaine Johnson II
0.3 press/gm
Aidan Hutchinson◄
1.3 press/gm
Cody Barton◄
0.7 impact/gm
Derrick Barnes
0.7 impact/gm
Alontae Taylor◄
0.6 cover/gm
D.J. Reed
0.5 cover/gm
Amani Hooker◄
0.5 cover/gm
Chuck Clark
0.3 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
NYG
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
PIT
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Jaxson Dart
0.01 EPA/att
Aaron Rodgers◄
0.04 EPA/att
Cam Skattebo
-0.05 EPA/tch
Jaylen Warren◄
0.03 EPA/tch
Malik Nabers
0.04 EPA/tgt
DK Metcalf◄
0.26 EPA/tgt
Isaiah Likely
0.10 EPA/tgt
Darnell Washington◄
0.24 EPA/tgt
Bad
8.4% sack rate
Good◄
5.3% sack rate
DJ Reader
0.1 disrupt/gm
Keeanu Benton◄
0.6 disrupt/gm
Shelby Harris
0.2 press/gm
Cameron Heyward◄
0.4 press/gm
Brian Burns◄
1.8 impact/gm
Payton Wilson
0.7 impact/gm
Dru Phillips◄
0.6 cover/gm
Jalen Ramsey
0.4 cover/gm
Tyler Nubin
0.3 cover/gm
Jaquan Brisker◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
DAL
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
SF
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Dak Prescott◄
0.15 EPA/att
Brock Purdy
0.13 EPA/att
Javonte Williams
-0.03 EPA/tch
Christian McCaffrey◄
0.04 EPA/tch
CeeDee Lamb◄
0.20 EPA/tgt
Mike Evans
0.06 EPA/tgt
Jake Ferguson
0.16 EPA/tgt
George Kittle◄
0.53 EPA/tgt
Elite◄
4.7% sack rate
Average
4.5% sack rate
Otito Ogbonnia
0.3 disrupt/gm
Osa Odighizuwa◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Quinnen Williams◄
no 2025 data
Keion White
0.2 press/gm
Dee Winters◄
0.8 impact/gm
Luke Gifford
0.1 impact/gm
Cobie Durant◄
0.5 cover/gm
Deommodore Lenoir
0.3 cover/gm
Malik Hooker
0.2 cover/gm
Ji'Ayir Brown◄
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
CHI
OFF Balanced · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
WAS
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Caleb Williams◄
0.06 EPA/att
Jayden Daniels
-0.01 EPA/att
D'Andre Swift◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Jacory Croskey-Merritt
-0.02 EPA/tch
Rome Odunze
0.18 EPA/tgt
Terry McLaurin◄
0.36 EPA/tgt
Colston Loveland◄
0.47 EPA/tgt
Chig Okonkwo
0.13 EPA/tgt
Elite◄
4.0% sack rate
Good
7.3% sack rate
Grady Jarrett
0.3 disrupt/gm
Daron Payne◄
0.6 disrupt/gm
Montez Sweat◄
0.9 press/gm
Tim Settle
no 2025 data
Devin Bush◄
0.9 impact/gm
Odafe Oweh
0.7 impact/gm
Cam Lewis
0.2 cover/gm
Mike Sainristil◄
0.7 cover/gm
Xavier Woods
0.4 cover/gm
Nick Cross◄
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
NO
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
LAC
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Tyler Shough
0.00 EPA/att
Justin Herbert◄
0.02 EPA/att
Travis Etienne Jr.
-0.03 EPA/tch
Omarion Hampton◄
-0.01 EPA/tch
Chris Olave◄
0.19 EPA/tgt
Ladd McConkey
0.05 EPA/tgt
Juwan Johnson◄
0.29 EPA/tgt
Charlie Kolar
0.15 EPA/tgt
Bad
7.7% sack rate
Bad◄
9.5% sack rate
Davon Godchaux
0.1 disrupt/gm
Dalvin Tomlinson◄
no 2025 data
Colby Wooden
0.2 press/gm
Teair Tart◄
no 2025 data
Kaden Elliss◄
1.0 impact/gm
Daiyan Henley
0.8 impact/gm
Kool-Aid McKinstry◄
0.9 cover/gm
Cam Hart
0.5 cover/gm
Justin Reid
0.5 cover/gm
Derwin James Jr.◄
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
MIN
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
LA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Kyler Murray
0.02 EPA/att
Matthew Stafford◄
0.19 EPA/att
Aaron Jones Sr.
-0.04 EPA/tch
Kyren Williams◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Justin Jefferson
-0.08 EPA/tgt
Puka Nacua◄
0.59 EPA/tgt
T.J. Hockenson
0.17 EPA/tgt
Colby Parkinson◄
0.17 EPA/tgt
Bad
11.0% sack rate
Elite◄
3.7% sack rate
Caleb Banks◄
no 2025 data
Poona Ford
0.3 disrupt/gm
Levi Drake Rodriguez◄
no 2025 data
Kobie Turner
0.6 press/gm
Eric Wilson◄
1.1 impact/gm
Byron Young
1.1 impact/gm
Byron Murphy Jr.◄
0.4 cover/gm
Jaylen Watson
0.4 cover/gm
Joshua Metellus◄
0.6 cover/gm
Kamren Kinchens
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
KC
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
LV
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Patrick Mahomes◄
0.10 EPA/att
Kirk Cousins
-0.00 EPA/att
Kenneth Walker III◄
-0.02 EPA/tch
Ashton Jeanty
-0.20 EPA/tch
Rashee Rice
0.15 EPA/tgt
Tre Tucker◄
0.18 EPA/tgt
Travis Kelce◄
0.32 EPA/tgt
Brock Bowers
0.22 EPA/tgt
Average◄
7.4% sack rate
Bad
11.1% sack rate
Khyiris Tonga
0.1 disrupt/gm
Adam Butler◄
0.3 disrupt/gm
George Karlaftis
0.8 press/gm
Jonah Laulu
no 2025 data
Drue Tranquill
0.7 impact/gm
Quay Walker◄
0.9 impact/gm
L'Jarius Sneed
0.2 cover/gm
Eric Stokes◄
0.2 cover/gm
Alohi Gilman◄
0.5 cover/gm
Jeremy Chinn
0.3 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
BAL
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
CLE
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Lamar Jackson
0.04 EPA/att
Deshaun Watson◄
no 2025 data
Derrick Henry◄
0.02 EPA/tch
Quinshon Judkins
-0.10 EPA/tch
Zay Flowers◄
0.32 EPA/tgt
Jerry Jeudy
-0.24 EPA/tgt
Mark Andrews◄
0.02 EPA/tgt
Harold Fannin Jr.
0.01 EPA/tgt
Good◄
9.6% sack rate
Bad
8.4% sack rate
Travis Jones◄
0.7 disrupt/gm
Mason Graham
0.4 disrupt/gm
Calais Campbell
0.7 press/gm
Jared Verse◄
0.9 press/gm
Roquan Smith
0.7 impact/gm
Carson Schwesinger◄
0.9 impact/gm
Nate Wiggins
0.7 cover/gm
Tyson Campbell
0.7 cover/gm
Malaki Starks◄
0.5 cover/gm
Grant Delpit
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
GB
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
JAX
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Jordan Love◄
0.18 EPA/att
Trevor Lawrence
0.05 EPA/att
MarShawn Lloyd◄
no 2025 data
Bhayshul Tuten
-0.03 EPA/tch
Christian Watson◄
0.38 EPA/tgt
Brian Thomas Jr.
0.14 EPA/tgt
Tucker Kraft◄
0.62 EPA/tgt
Brenton Strange
0.40 EPA/tgt
Average◄
5.6% sack rate
Bad
6.8% sack rate
Javon Hargrave◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
DaVon Hamilton
0.2 disrupt/gm
Karl Brooks
no 2025 data
Josh Hines-Allen◄
1.0 press/gm
Edgerrin Cooper
0.6 impact/gm
Foyesade Oluokun◄
0.9 impact/gm
Keisean Nixon◄
0.7 cover/gm
Montaric Brown
0.7 cover/gm
Evan Williams
0.6 cover/gm
Antonio Johnson◄
0.8 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
IND
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
HOU
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Daniel Jones◄
0.11 EPA/att
C.J. Stroud
0.08 EPA/att
Jonathan Taylor◄
0.07 EPA/tch
David Montgomery
0.02 EPA/tch
Alec Pierce◄
0.49 EPA/tgt
Nico Collins
0.26 EPA/tgt
Tyler Warren
0.12 EPA/tgt
Dalton Schultz◄
0.29 EPA/tgt
Good◄
5.0% sack rate
Average
5.1% sack rate
Grover Stewart
0.3 disrupt/gm
Tommy Togiai◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Laiatu Latu
0.9 press/gm
Will Anderson Jr.◄
1.2 press/gm
Akeem Davis-Gaither
0.5 impact/gm
Henry To'oTo'o◄
0.8 impact/gm
Sauce Gardner
0.5 cover/gm
Kamari Lassiter◄
1.0 cover/gm
Cam Bynum◄
0.7 cover/gm
Reed Blankenship
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
ATL
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
TB
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Michael Penix Jr.◄
0.01 EPA/att
Baker Mayfield
0.00 EPA/att
Bijan Robinson◄
0.03 EPA/tch
Bucky Irving
-0.10 EPA/tch
Drake London◄
0.18 EPA/tgt
Emeka Egbuka
0.05 EPA/tgt
Kyle Pitts Sr.◄
0.18 EPA/tgt
Cade Otton
0.03 EPA/tgt
Elite◄
4.6% sack rate
Average
6.4% sack rate
Gervon Dexter Sr.
0.7 disrupt/gm
Vita Vea◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Brandon Dorlus
0.8 press/gm
Calijah Kancey◄
no 2025 data
Divine Deablo
0.7 impact/gm
Yaya Diaby◄
0.9 impact/gm
A.J. Terrell Jr.◄
0.5 cover/gm
Jacob Parrish
0.4 cover/gm
Jessie Bates III◄
0.6 cover/gm
Antoine Winfield Jr.
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
NYJ
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
NE
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Geno Smith
-0.12 EPA/att
Drake Maye◄
0.25 EPA/att
Breece Hall
-0.04 EPA/tch
Rhamondre Stevenson◄
-0.02 EPA/tch
Garrett Wilson
-0.02 EPA/tgt
Romeo Doubs◄
0.30 EPA/tgt
Mason Taylor
0.12 EPA/tgt
Hunter Henry◄
0.36 EPA/tgt
Bad
10.8% sack rate
Average◄
8.7% sack rate
Harrison Phillips◄
0.2 disrupt/gm
Cory Durden
0.2 disrupt/gm
Will McDonald IV◄
0.9 press/gm
Christian Barmore
no 2025 data
Jamien Sherwood◄
1.0 impact/gm
Dre'Mont Jones
0.6 impact/gm
Nahshon Wright◄
0.8 cover/gm
Carlton Davis III
0.4 cover/gm
Dane Belton◄
0.5 cover/gm
Craig Woodson
0.3 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
PHI
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · four-man rush
CIN
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Jalen Hurts
0.05 EPA/att
Joe Burrow◄
0.08 EPA/att
Saquon Barkley
-0.08 EPA/tch
Chase Brown◄
-0.04 EPA/tch
DeVonta Smith◄
0.38 EPA/tgt
Ja'Marr Chase
0.19 EPA/tgt
Dallas Goedert◄
0.36 EPA/tgt
Mike Gesicki
0.07 EPA/tgt
Average
6.6% sack rate
Good◄
5.3% sack rate
Average◄
no data
Dexter Lawrence II
0.3 disrupt/gm
Jalen Carter◄
no 2025 data
Boye Mafe
0.2 press/gm
Zack Baun◄
1.0 impact/gm
Demetrius Knight Jr.
0.8 impact/gm
Quinyon Mitchell◄
0.7 cover/gm
Dax Hill
0.5 cover/gm
Andrew Mukuba
0.4 cover/gm
Jordan Battle◄
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
BUF
OFF Run-heavy · under-center
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
SEA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Josh Allen
0.11 EPA/att
Sam Darnold◄
0.11 EPA/att
James Cook III◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Brady Russell
-0.01 EPA/tch
DJ Moore
0.12 EPA/tgt
Jaxon Smith-Njigba◄
0.47 EPA/tgt
Dalton Kincaid◄
0.58 EPA/tgt
AJ Barner
0.32 EPA/tgt
Good◄
7.5% sack rate
Average
5.3% sack rate
Deone Walker
0.4 disrupt/gm
Byron Murphy II◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
T.J. Sanders
no 2025 data
Leonard Williams
0.8 press/gm
Greg Rousseau
0.7 impact/gm
DeMarcus Lawrence◄
0.8 impact/gm
Dee Alford◄
0.8 cover/gm
Josh Jobe
0.6 cover/gm
Cole Bishop◄
0.7 cover/gm
Ty Okada
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
ARI
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
MIA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Jacoby Brissett
-0.00 EPA/att
Malik Willis◄
0.13 EPA/att
Jeremiyah Love
no 2025 data
De'Von Achane◄
0.01 EPA/tch
Marvin Harrison Jr.◄
0.31 EPA/tgt
Malik Washington
-0.10 EPA/tgt
Trey McBride◄
0.39 EPA/tgt
Greg Dulcich
0.34 EPA/tgt
Bad
8.3% sack rate
Good◄
7.4% sack rate
Roy Lopez◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Jordan Phillips
0.2 disrupt/gm
Josh Sweat
no 2025 data
Chop Robinson
no 2025 data
Jack Gibbens
0.7 impact/gm
Jordyn Brooks◄
1.2 impact/gm
Denzel Burke◄
0.7 cover/gm
Jason Marshall Jr.
0.3 cover/gm
Budda Baker◄
0.5 cover/gm
Dante Trader Jr.
0.2 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
Winner accuracy by grade, 1070 games. A high grade means a clearer mismatch — but the books know it too, so higher accuracy here does not mean a betting edge.
All validated trends · out-of-sample (2020–2026)
NFL · Members
The full board, confidence ratings, and daily plays — plus the complete track record. New plays every morning. The track record and featured picks above stay free.
NFL Pass
$9.99/mo
Just NFL
All-AccessBest value
$29.99/mo
All 5 sports
Secure checkout via Stripe. Cancel anytime. 21+. Bet responsibly.
