We simulate every NFL game on opponent-adjusted net EPA — offense and defense on both sides set the projected margin, scoring rates set the total — then post only the handful we have the most conviction in. Every posted game gets a grade and a projected score, and every one is graded against the real result.
Graded games
75.9%
the games we post · B+ or better
Full slate
62.5%
every game · n=1070
Market
67.4%
closing line · it’s better
Margin error
10.5
points, full slate
Accuracy is measured against the actual final score — did we pick the winner, and how many points off was the margin — not against the betting line. Across 2019–2025 the simulator calls 62.5% of all games straight up. The market’s closing line calls 67.4% — the NFL is the most efficient market in sports, so the full slate is worse than the market and we say so. It is a prediction tool, not a betting edge: it does not beat the spread. Analysis and entertainment, 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.
Board went 0-0 · full slate 9-5 straight up
Every game we simulated this week, highest conviction first. The board above is only the ones that cleared B+— here’s the whole week so nothing’s hidden.
TB
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
NO
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Baker Mayfield
0.00 EPA/att
Tyler Shough◄
The grade is our conviction in our own call — how big the projected margin is. Here is how each grade actually performed across 2019–2025:
Net EPA — opponent-adjusted expected points added on offense and defense, both sides of the ball — sets the projected margin. Scoring rates set the total. Ratings are computed as of that week’s kickoff, using only games already played, so nothing is graded with hindsight. Early in the season a team carries its prior-year rating until it has enough games to stand on its own.
It does not beat the spread. The NFL market is the sharpest in sports. We publish this because the projection and the matchup are interesting and we grade ourselves honestly against the real score — not because it prints money.
Also on our board
Separate from the simulator: situational trends mined from 1999–2026 seasons and validated out-of-sample. Only the ones that actually hold up.
The Sizzlin NFL Simulator is analysis and entertainment — not betting advice or a guaranteed outcome. 21+. 1-800-GAMBLER.
0.00 EPA/att
Bucky Irving
-0.10 EPA/tch
Travis Etienne Jr.◄
-0.03 EPA/tch
Emeka Egbuka
0.05 EPA/tgt
Chris Olave◄
0.19 EPA/tgt
Cade Otton
0.03 EPA/tgt
Juwan Johnson◄
0.29 EPA/tgt
Average◄
6.4% sack rate
Bad
7.7% sack rate
Vita Vea◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Davon Godchaux
0.1 disrupt/gm
Calijah Kancey◄
no 2025 data
Colby Wooden
0.2 press/gm
Yaya Diaby
0.9 impact/gm
Kaden Elliss◄
1.0 impact/gm
Jacob Parrish
0.4 cover/gm
Kool-Aid McKinstry◄
0.9 cover/gm
Antoine Winfield Jr.◄
0.6 cover/gm
Justin Reid
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
ARI
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
GB
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Jacoby Brissett
-0.00 EPA/att
Jordan Love◄
0.18 EPA/att
Jeremiyah Love
no 2025 data
MarShawn Lloyd
no 2025 data
Marvin Harrison Jr.
0.31 EPA/tgt
Christian Watson◄
0.38 EPA/tgt
Trey McBride
0.39 EPA/tgt
Tucker Kraft◄
0.62 EPA/tgt
Bad
8.3% sack rate
Average◄
5.6% sack rate
Roy Lopez
0.4 disrupt/gm
Javon Hargrave◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Josh Sweat
no 2025 data
Karl Brooks
no 2025 data
Jack Gibbens◄
0.7 impact/gm
Edgerrin Cooper
0.6 impact/gm
Denzel Burke◄
0.7 cover/gm
Keisean Nixon
0.7 cover/gm
Budda Baker
0.5 cover/gm
Evan Williams◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
CLE
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
PHI
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · four-man rush
Deshaun Watson
no 2025 data
Jalen Hurts
0.05 EPA/att
Quinshon Judkins
-0.10 EPA/tch
Saquon Barkley◄
-0.08 EPA/tch
Jerry Jeudy
-0.24 EPA/tgt
DeVonta Smith◄
0.38 EPA/tgt
Harold Fannin Jr.
0.01 EPA/tgt
Dallas Goedert◄
0.36 EPA/tgt
Bad
8.4% sack rate
Average◄
6.6% sack rate
Mason Graham◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Average
no data
Jared Verse◄
0.9 press/gm
Jalen Carter
no 2025 data
Carson Schwesinger
0.9 impact/gm
Zack Baun◄
1.0 impact/gm
Tyson Campbell◄
0.7 cover/gm
Quinyon Mitchell
0.7 cover/gm
Grant Delpit
0.4 cover/gm
Andrew Mukuba◄
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
JAX
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
CHI
OFF Balanced · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
Trevor Lawrence
0.05 EPA/att
Caleb Williams◄
0.06 EPA/att
Bhayshul Tuten
-0.03 EPA/tch
D'Andre Swift◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Brian Thomas Jr.
0.14 EPA/tgt
Rome Odunze◄
0.18 EPA/tgt
Brenton Strange
0.40 EPA/tgt
Colston Loveland◄
0.47 EPA/tgt
Bad
6.8% sack rate
Elite◄
4.0% sack rate
DaVon Hamilton
0.2 disrupt/gm
Grady Jarrett◄
0.3 disrupt/gm
Josh Hines-Allen◄
1.0 press/gm
Montez Sweat
0.9 press/gm
Foyesade Oluokun◄
0.9 impact/gm
Devin Bush
0.9 impact/gm
Montaric Brown◄
0.7 cover/gm
Cam Lewis
0.2 cover/gm
Antonio Johnson◄
0.8 cover/gm
Xavier Woods
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
HOU
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
NE
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
C.J. Stroud
0.08 EPA/att
Drake Maye◄
0.25 EPA/att
David Montgomery◄
0.02 EPA/tch
Rhamondre Stevenson
-0.02 EPA/tch
Nico Collins
0.26 EPA/tgt
Romeo Doubs◄
0.30 EPA/tgt
Dalton Schultz
0.29 EPA/tgt
Hunter Henry◄
0.36 EPA/tgt
Average◄
5.1% sack rate
Average
8.7% sack rate
Tommy Togiai◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Cory Durden
0.2 disrupt/gm
Will Anderson Jr.◄
1.2 press/gm
Christian Barmore
no 2025 data
Henry To'oTo'o◄
0.8 impact/gm
Dre'Mont Jones
0.6 impact/gm
Kamari Lassiter◄
1.0 cover/gm
Carlton Davis III
0.4 cover/gm
Reed Blankenship◄
0.4 cover/gm
Craig Woodson
0.3 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
PIT
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
LV
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Aaron Rodgers◄
0.04 EPA/att
Kirk Cousins
-0.00 EPA/att
Jaylen Warren◄
0.03 EPA/tch
Ashton Jeanty
-0.20 EPA/tch
DK Metcalf◄
0.26 EPA/tgt
Tre Tucker
0.18 EPA/tgt
Darnell Washington◄
0.24 EPA/tgt
Brock Bowers
0.22 EPA/tgt
Good◄
5.3% sack rate
Bad
11.1% sack rate
Keeanu Benton◄
0.6 disrupt/gm
Adam Butler
0.3 disrupt/gm
Cameron Heyward
0.4 press/gm
Jonah Laulu◄
no 2025 data
Payton Wilson
0.7 impact/gm
Quay Walker◄
0.9 impact/gm
Jalen Ramsey◄
0.4 cover/gm
Eric Stokes
0.2 cover/gm
Jaquan Brisker◄
0.6 cover/gm
Jeremy Chinn
0.3 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
SF
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
SEA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Brock Purdy◄
0.13 EPA/att
Sam Darnold
0.11 EPA/att
Christian McCaffrey◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Brady Russell
-0.01 EPA/tch
Mike Evans
0.06 EPA/tgt
Jaxon Smith-Njigba◄
0.47 EPA/tgt
George Kittle◄
0.53 EPA/tgt
AJ Barner
0.32 EPA/tgt
Average
4.5% sack rate
Average◄
5.3% sack rate
Osa Odighizuwa
0.8 disrupt/gm
Byron Murphy II◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Keion White
0.2 press/gm
Leonard Williams◄
0.8 press/gm
Luke Gifford
0.1 impact/gm
DeMarcus Lawrence◄
0.8 impact/gm
Deommodore Lenoir
0.3 cover/gm
Josh Jobe◄
0.6 cover/gm
Ji'Ayir Brown◄
0.5 cover/gm
Ty Okada
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
WAS
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
BAL
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Jayden Daniels
-0.01 EPA/att
Lamar Jackson◄
0.04 EPA/att
Jacory Croskey-Merritt
-0.02 EPA/tch
Derrick Henry◄
0.02 EPA/tch
Terry McLaurin◄
0.36 EPA/tgt
Zay Flowers
0.32 EPA/tgt
Chig Okonkwo◄
0.13 EPA/tgt
Mark Andrews
0.02 EPA/tgt
Good
7.3% sack rate
Good◄
9.6% sack rate
Daron Payne
0.6 disrupt/gm
Travis Jones◄
0.7 disrupt/gm
Tim Settle◄
no 2025 data
Calais Campbell
0.7 press/gm
Odafe Oweh
0.7 impact/gm
Roquan Smith◄
0.7 impact/gm
Mike Sainristil
0.7 cover/gm
Nate Wiggins
0.7 cover/gm
Nick Cross◄
0.5 cover/gm
Malaki Starks
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
ATL
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
CAR
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Michael Penix Jr.◄
0.01 EPA/att
Bryce Young
-0.03 EPA/att
Bijan Robinson◄
0.03 EPA/tch
Chuba Hubbard
-0.05 EPA/tch
Drake London◄
0.18 EPA/tgt
Tetairoa McMillan
0.17 EPA/tgt
Kyle Pitts Sr.◄
0.18 EPA/tgt
Tommy Tremble
0.15 EPA/tgt
Elite◄
4.6% sack rate
Average
6.4% sack rate
Gervon Dexter Sr.◄
0.7 disrupt/gm
Lee Hunter
no 2025 data
Brandon Dorlus
0.8 press/gm
Derrick Brown◄
no 2025 data
Divine Deablo◄
0.7 impact/gm
Bobby Okereke
0.7 impact/gm
A.J. Terrell Jr.
0.5 cover/gm
Mike Jackson◄
1.0 cover/gm
Jessie Bates III◄
0.6 cover/gm
Nick Scott
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
LAC
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
DEN
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
Justin Herbert
0.02 EPA/att
Bo Nix◄
0.08 EPA/att
Omarion Hampton
-0.01 EPA/tch
J.K. Dobbins◄
-0.00 EPA/tch
Ladd McConkey
0.05 EPA/tgt
Jaylen Waddle◄
0.27 EPA/tgt
Charlie Kolar◄
0.15 EPA/tgt
Evan Engram
0.04 EPA/tgt
Bad
9.5% sack rate
Elite◄
3.6% sack rate
Dalvin Tomlinson
no 2025 data
D.J. Jones◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Teair Tart
no 2025 data
Zach Allen◄
1.1 press/gm
Daiyan Henley
0.8 impact/gm
Nik Bonitto◄
1.2 impact/gm
Cam Hart
0.5 cover/gm
Riley Moss◄
0.8 cover/gm
Derwin James Jr.◄
0.7 cover/gm
Talanoa Hufanga
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
IND
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
TEN
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Daniel Jones◄
0.11 EPA/att
Cam Ward
-0.15 EPA/att
Jonathan Taylor◄
0.07 EPA/tch
Tony Pollard
-0.10 EPA/tch
Alec Pierce◄
0.49 EPA/tgt
Carnell Tate
no 2025 data
Tyler Warren◄
0.12 EPA/tgt
Gunnar Helm
0.05 EPA/tgt
Good◄
5.0% sack rate
Bad
8.9% sack rate
Grover Stewart
0.3 disrupt/gm
Jeffery Simmons◄
1.5 disrupt/gm
Laiatu Latu◄
0.9 press/gm
Jermaine Johnson II
0.3 press/gm
Akeem Davis-Gaither
0.5 impact/gm
Cody Barton◄
0.7 impact/gm
Sauce Gardner
0.5 cover/gm
Alontae Taylor◄
0.6 cover/gm
Cam Bynum◄
0.7 cover/gm
Amani Hooker
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
DET
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
DAL
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Jared Goff
0.14 EPA/att
Dak Prescott◄
0.15 EPA/att
Jahmyr Gibbs◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Javonte Williams
-0.03 EPA/tch
Amon-Ra St. Brown◄
0.28 EPA/tgt
CeeDee Lamb
0.20 EPA/tgt
Sam LaPorta◄
0.54 EPA/tgt
Jake Ferguson
0.16 EPA/tgt
Good
6.3% sack rate
Elite◄
4.7% sack rate
Tyleik Williams
0.2 disrupt/gm
Otito Ogbonnia◄
0.3 disrupt/gm
Aidan Hutchinson◄
1.3 press/gm
Quinnen Williams
no 2025 data
Derrick Barnes
0.7 impact/gm
Dee Winters◄
0.8 impact/gm
D.J. Reed◄
0.5 cover/gm
Cobie Durant
0.5 cover/gm
Chuck Clark◄
0.3 cover/gm
Malik Hooker
0.2 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
CIN
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
NYG
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Joe Burrow◄
0.08 EPA/att
Jaxson Dart
0.01 EPA/att
Chase Brown◄
-0.04 EPA/tch
Cam Skattebo
-0.05 EPA/tch
Ja'Marr Chase◄
0.19 EPA/tgt
Malik Nabers
0.04 EPA/tgt
Mike Gesicki
0.07 EPA/tgt
Isaiah Likely◄
0.10 EPA/tgt
Good◄
5.3% sack rate
Bad
8.4% sack rate
Dexter Lawrence II◄
0.3 disrupt/gm
DJ Reader
0.1 disrupt/gm
Boye Mafe
0.2 press/gm
Shelby Harris◄
0.2 press/gm
Demetrius Knight Jr.
0.8 impact/gm
Brian Burns◄
1.8 impact/gm
Dax Hill
0.5 cover/gm
Dru Phillips◄
0.6 cover/gm
Jordan Battle◄
0.7 cover/gm
Tyler Nubin
0.3 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
BUF
OFF Run-heavy · under-center
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
NYJ
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Josh Allen◄
0.11 EPA/att
Geno Smith
-0.12 EPA/att
James Cook III◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Breece Hall
-0.04 EPA/tch
DJ Moore◄
0.12 EPA/tgt
Garrett Wilson
-0.02 EPA/tgt
Dalton Kincaid◄
0.58 EPA/tgt
Mason Taylor
0.12 EPA/tgt
Good◄
7.5% sack rate
Bad
10.8% sack rate
Deone Walker◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Harrison Phillips
0.2 disrupt/gm
T.J. Sanders
no 2025 data
Will McDonald IV◄
0.9 press/gm
Greg Rousseau
0.7 impact/gm
Jamien Sherwood◄
1.0 impact/gm
Dee Alford
0.8 cover/gm
Nahshon Wright◄
0.8 cover/gm
Cole Bishop◄
0.7 cover/gm
Dane Belton
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
Winner accuracy by grade, 1070 games. A high grade means a clearer mismatch — but the books know it too, so higher accuracy here does not mean a betting edge.
All validated trends · out-of-sample (2020–2026)
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