We simulate every NFL game on opponent-adjusted net EPA — offense and defense on both sides set the projected margin, scoring rates set the total — then post only the handful we have the most conviction in. Every posted game gets a grade and a projected score, and every one is graded against the real result.
Graded games
75.9%
the games we post · B+ or better
Full slate
62.5%
every game · n=1070
Market
67.4%
closing line · it’s better
Margin error
10.5
points, full slate
Accuracy is measured against the actual final score — did we pick the winner, and how many points off was the margin — not against the betting line. Across 2019–2025 the simulator calls 62.5% of all games straight up. The market’s closing line calls 67.4% — the NFL is the most efficient market in sports, so the full slate is worse than the market and we say so. It is a prediction tool, not a betting edge: it does not beat the spread. Analysis and entertainment, 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.
Board went 1-2 · full slate 7-7 straight up
Our 3 highest-conviction calls out of 14 games this week. We post at most 6, and nothing below a B+ — a thin week posts fewer rather than padding the board.
NYG
SEA
16
25
Offense
SEA
Defense
SEA
Missed the winner
NYG
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
SEA
Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
Every game we simulated this week, highest conviction first. The board above is only the ones that cleared B+— here’s the whole week so nothing’s hidden.
NYG
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
SEA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Jaxson Dart
0.01 EPA/att
Sam Darnold◄
The grade is our conviction in our own call — how big the projected margin is. Here is how each grade actually performed across 2019–2025:
Net EPA — opponent-adjusted expected points added on offense and defense, both sides of the ball — sets the projected margin. Scoring rates set the total. Ratings are computed as of that week’s kickoff, using only games already played, so nothing is graded with hindsight. Early in the season a team carries its prior-year rating until it has enough games to stand on its own.
It does not beat the spread. The NFL market is the sharpest in sports. We publish this because the projection and the matchup are interesting and we grade ourselves honestly against the real score — not because it prints money.
Also on our board
Separate from the simulator: situational trends mined from 1999–2026 seasons and validated out-of-sample. Only the ones that actually hold up.
The Sizzlin NFL Simulator is analysis and entertainment — not betting advice or a guaranteed outcome. 21+. 1-800-GAMBLER.
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Jaxson Dart
0.01 EPA/att
Sam Darnold◄
0.11 EPA/att
Cam Skattebo
-0.05 EPA/tch
Brady Russell◄
-0.01 EPA/tch
Malik Nabers
0.04 EPA/tgt
Jaxon Smith-Njigba◄
0.47 EPA/tgt
Isaiah Likely
0.10 EPA/tgt
AJ Barner◄
0.32 EPA/tgt
Bad
8.4% sack rate
Average◄
5.3% sack rate
DJ Reader
0.1 disrupt/gm
Byron Murphy II◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Shelby Harris
0.2 press/gm
Leonard Williams◄
0.8 press/gm
Brian Burns◄
1.8 impact/gm
DeMarcus Lawrence
0.8 impact/gm
Dru Phillips◄
0.6 cover/gm
Josh Jobe
0.6 cover/gm
Tyler Nubin
0.3 cover/gm
Ty Okada◄
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
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0.11 EPA/att
Cam Skattebo
-0.05 EPA/tch
Brady Russell◄
-0.01 EPA/tch
Malik Nabers
0.04 EPA/tgt
Jaxon Smith-Njigba◄
0.47 EPA/tgt
Isaiah Likely
0.10 EPA/tgt
AJ Barner◄
0.32 EPA/tgt
Bad
8.4% sack rate
Average◄
5.3% sack rate
DJ Reader
0.1 disrupt/gm
Byron Murphy II◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Shelby Harris
0.2 press/gm
Leonard Williams◄
0.8 press/gm
Brian Burns◄
1.8 impact/gm
DeMarcus Lawrence
0.8 impact/gm
Dru Phillips◄
0.6 cover/gm
Josh Jobe
0.6 cover/gm
Tyler Nubin
0.3 cover/gm
Ty Okada◄
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
CLE
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
WAS
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Deshaun Watson◄
no 2025 data
Jayden Daniels
-0.01 EPA/att
Quinshon Judkins
-0.10 EPA/tch
Jacory Croskey-Merritt◄
-0.02 EPA/tch
Jerry Jeudy
-0.24 EPA/tgt
Terry McLaurin◄
0.36 EPA/tgt
Harold Fannin Jr.
0.01 EPA/tgt
Chig Okonkwo◄
0.13 EPA/tgt
Bad
8.4% sack rate
Good◄
7.3% sack rate
Mason Graham
0.4 disrupt/gm
Daron Payne◄
0.6 disrupt/gm
Jared Verse◄
0.9 press/gm
Tim Settle
no 2025 data
Carson Schwesinger◄
0.9 impact/gm
Odafe Oweh
0.7 impact/gm
Tyson Campbell
0.7 cover/gm
Mike Sainristil
0.7 cover/gm
Grant Delpit
0.4 cover/gm
Nick Cross◄
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
ARI
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
SF
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Jacoby Brissett
-0.00 EPA/att
Brock Purdy◄
0.13 EPA/att
Jeremiyah Love
no 2025 data
Christian McCaffrey◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Marvin Harrison Jr.◄
0.31 EPA/tgt
Mike Evans
0.06 EPA/tgt
Trey McBride
0.39 EPA/tgt
George Kittle◄
0.53 EPA/tgt
Bad
8.3% sack rate
Average◄
4.5% sack rate
Roy Lopez
0.4 disrupt/gm
Osa Odighizuwa◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Josh Sweat◄
no 2025 data
Keion White
0.2 press/gm
Jack Gibbens◄
0.7 impact/gm
Luke Gifford
0.1 impact/gm
Denzel Burke◄
0.7 cover/gm
Deommodore Lenoir
0.3 cover/gm
Budda Baker
0.5 cover/gm
Ji'Ayir Brown◄
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
DAL
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
PIT
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Dak Prescott◄
0.15 EPA/att
Aaron Rodgers
0.04 EPA/att
Javonte Williams
-0.03 EPA/tch
Jaylen Warren◄
0.03 EPA/tch
CeeDee Lamb
0.20 EPA/tgt
DK Metcalf◄
0.26 EPA/tgt
Jake Ferguson
0.16 EPA/tgt
Darnell Washington◄
0.24 EPA/tgt
Elite◄
4.7% sack rate
Good
5.3% sack rate
Otito Ogbonnia
0.3 disrupt/gm
Keeanu Benton◄
0.6 disrupt/gm
Quinnen Williams◄
no 2025 data
Cameron Heyward
0.4 press/gm
Dee Winters◄
0.8 impact/gm
Payton Wilson
0.7 impact/gm
Cobie Durant◄
0.5 cover/gm
Jalen Ramsey
0.4 cover/gm
Malik Hooker
0.2 cover/gm
Jaquan Brisker◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
LV
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
DEN
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
Kirk Cousins
-0.00 EPA/att
Bo Nix◄
0.08 EPA/att
Ashton Jeanty
-0.20 EPA/tch
J.K. Dobbins◄
-0.00 EPA/tch
Tre Tucker
0.18 EPA/tgt
Jaylen Waddle◄
0.27 EPA/tgt
Brock Bowers◄
0.22 EPA/tgt
Evan Engram
0.04 EPA/tgt
Bad
11.1% sack rate
Elite◄
3.6% sack rate
Adam Butler
0.3 disrupt/gm
D.J. Jones◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Jonah Laulu
no 2025 data
Zach Allen◄
1.1 press/gm
Quay Walker
0.9 impact/gm
Nik Bonitto◄
1.2 impact/gm
Eric Stokes
0.2 cover/gm
Riley Moss◄
0.8 cover/gm
Jeremy Chinn
0.3 cover/gm
Talanoa Hufanga◄
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
CAR
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
CHI
OFF Balanced · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
Bryce Young
-0.03 EPA/att
Caleb Williams◄
0.06 EPA/att
Chuba Hubbard
-0.05 EPA/tch
D'Andre Swift◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Tetairoa McMillan
0.17 EPA/tgt
Rome Odunze◄
0.18 EPA/tgt
Tommy Tremble
0.15 EPA/tgt
Colston Loveland◄
0.47 EPA/tgt
Average
6.4% sack rate
Elite◄
4.0% sack rate
Lee Hunter◄
no 2025 data
Grady Jarrett
0.3 disrupt/gm
Derrick Brown
no 2025 data
Montez Sweat◄
0.9 press/gm
Bobby Okereke
0.7 impact/gm
Devin Bush◄
0.9 impact/gm
Mike Jackson◄
1.0 cover/gm
Cam Lewis
0.2 cover/gm
Nick Scott
0.4 cover/gm
Xavier Woods◄
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
GB
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
LA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Jordan Love
0.18 EPA/att
Matthew Stafford◄
0.19 EPA/att
MarShawn Lloyd
no 2025 data
Kyren Williams◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Christian Watson
0.38 EPA/tgt
Puka Nacua◄
0.59 EPA/tgt
Tucker Kraft◄
0.62 EPA/tgt
Colby Parkinson
0.17 EPA/tgt
Average
5.6% sack rate
Elite◄
3.7% sack rate
Javon Hargrave◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Poona Ford
0.3 disrupt/gm
Karl Brooks◄
no 2025 data
Kobie Turner
0.6 press/gm
Edgerrin Cooper
0.6 impact/gm
Byron Young◄
1.1 impact/gm
Keisean Nixon◄
0.7 cover/gm
Jaylen Watson
0.4 cover/gm
Evan Williams◄
0.6 cover/gm
Kamren Kinchens
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
IND
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
JAX
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Daniel Jones◄
0.11 EPA/att
Trevor Lawrence
0.05 EPA/att
Jonathan Taylor◄
0.07 EPA/tch
Bhayshul Tuten
-0.03 EPA/tch
Alec Pierce◄
0.49 EPA/tgt
Brian Thomas Jr.
0.14 EPA/tgt
Tyler Warren
0.12 EPA/tgt
Brenton Strange◄
0.40 EPA/tgt
Good◄
5.0% sack rate
Bad
6.8% sack rate
Grover Stewart◄
0.3 disrupt/gm
DaVon Hamilton
0.2 disrupt/gm
Laiatu Latu
0.9 press/gm
Josh Hines-Allen◄
1.0 press/gm
Akeem Davis-Gaither
0.5 impact/gm
Foyesade Oluokun◄
0.9 impact/gm
Sauce Gardner
0.5 cover/gm
Montaric Brown◄
0.7 cover/gm
Cam Bynum
0.7 cover/gm
Antonio Johnson◄
0.8 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
NYJ
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
MIN
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Geno Smith
-0.12 EPA/att
Kyler Murray◄
0.02 EPA/att
Breece Hall◄
-0.04 EPA/tch
Aaron Jones Sr.
-0.04 EPA/tch
Garrett Wilson◄
-0.02 EPA/tgt
Justin Jefferson
-0.08 EPA/tgt
Mason Taylor
0.12 EPA/tgt
T.J. Hockenson◄
0.17 EPA/tgt
Bad◄
10.8% sack rate
Bad
11.0% sack rate
Harrison Phillips
0.2 disrupt/gm
Caleb Banks◄
no 2025 data
Will McDonald IV◄
0.9 press/gm
Levi Drake Rodriguez
no 2025 data
Jamien Sherwood
1.0 impact/gm
Eric Wilson◄
1.1 impact/gm
Nahshon Wright◄
0.8 cover/gm
Byron Murphy Jr.
0.4 cover/gm
Dane Belton
0.5 cover/gm
Joshua Metellus◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
BUF
OFF Run-heavy · under-center
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
HOU
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Josh Allen◄
0.11 EPA/att
C.J. Stroud
0.08 EPA/att
James Cook III◄
0.04 EPA/tch
David Montgomery
0.02 EPA/tch
DJ Moore
0.12 EPA/tgt
Nico Collins◄
0.26 EPA/tgt
Dalton Kincaid◄
0.58 EPA/tgt
Dalton Schultz
0.29 EPA/tgt
Good◄
7.5% sack rate
Average
5.1% sack rate
Deone Walker◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Tommy Togiai
0.4 disrupt/gm
T.J. Sanders
no 2025 data
Will Anderson Jr.◄
1.2 press/gm
Greg Rousseau
0.7 impact/gm
Henry To'oTo'o◄
0.8 impact/gm
Dee Alford
0.8 cover/gm
Kamari Lassiter◄
1.0 cover/gm
Cole Bishop◄
0.7 cover/gm
Reed Blankenship
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
NO
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
KC
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Tyler Shough
0.00 EPA/att
Patrick Mahomes◄
0.10 EPA/att
Travis Etienne Jr.
-0.03 EPA/tch
Kenneth Walker III◄
-0.02 EPA/tch
Chris Olave◄
0.19 EPA/tgt
Rashee Rice
0.15 EPA/tgt
Juwan Johnson
0.29 EPA/tgt
Travis Kelce◄
0.32 EPA/tgt
Bad
7.7% sack rate
Average◄
7.4% sack rate
Davon Godchaux
0.1 disrupt/gm
Khyiris Tonga◄
0.1 disrupt/gm
Colby Wooden
0.2 press/gm
George Karlaftis◄
0.8 press/gm
Kaden Elliss◄
1.0 impact/gm
Drue Tranquill
0.7 impact/gm
Kool-Aid McKinstry◄
0.9 cover/gm
L'Jarius Sneed
0.2 cover/gm
Justin Reid
0.5 cover/gm
Alohi Gilman◄
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
MIA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
NE
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Malik Willis
0.13 EPA/att
Drake Maye◄
0.25 EPA/att
De'Von Achane◄
0.01 EPA/tch
Rhamondre Stevenson
-0.02 EPA/tch
Malik Washington
-0.10 EPA/tgt
Romeo Doubs◄
0.30 EPA/tgt
Greg Dulcich
0.34 EPA/tgt
Hunter Henry◄
0.36 EPA/tgt
Good◄
7.4% sack rate
Average
8.7% sack rate
Jordan Phillips
0.2 disrupt/gm
Cory Durden◄
0.2 disrupt/gm
Chop Robinson
no 2025 data
Christian Barmore
no 2025 data
Jordyn Brooks◄
1.2 impact/gm
Dre'Mont Jones
0.6 impact/gm
Jason Marshall Jr.
0.3 cover/gm
Carlton Davis III◄
0.4 cover/gm
Dante Trader Jr.
0.2 cover/gm
Craig Woodson◄
0.3 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
BAL
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
CIN
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Lamar Jackson
0.04 EPA/att
Joe Burrow◄
0.08 EPA/att
Derrick Henry◄
0.02 EPA/tch
Chase Brown
-0.04 EPA/tch
Zay Flowers◄
0.32 EPA/tgt
Ja'Marr Chase
0.19 EPA/tgt
Mark Andrews
0.02 EPA/tgt
Mike Gesicki◄
0.07 EPA/tgt
Good◄
9.6% sack rate
Good
5.3% sack rate
Travis Jones◄
0.7 disrupt/gm
Dexter Lawrence II
0.3 disrupt/gm
Calais Campbell◄
0.7 press/gm
Boye Mafe
0.2 press/gm
Roquan Smith
0.7 impact/gm
Demetrius Knight Jr.◄
0.8 impact/gm
Nate Wiggins◄
0.7 cover/gm
Dax Hill
0.5 cover/gm
Malaki Starks
0.5 cover/gm
Jordan Battle◄
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
TB
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
ATL
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Baker Mayfield
0.00 EPA/att
Michael Penix Jr.◄
0.01 EPA/att
Bucky Irving
-0.10 EPA/tch
Bijan Robinson◄
0.03 EPA/tch
Emeka Egbuka
0.05 EPA/tgt
Drake London◄
0.18 EPA/tgt
Cade Otton
0.03 EPA/tgt
Kyle Pitts Sr.◄
0.18 EPA/tgt
Average
6.4% sack rate
Elite◄
4.6% sack rate
Vita Vea◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Gervon Dexter Sr.
0.7 disrupt/gm
Calijah Kancey◄
no 2025 data
Brandon Dorlus
0.8 press/gm
Yaya Diaby◄
0.9 impact/gm
Divine Deablo
0.7 impact/gm
Jacob Parrish
0.4 cover/gm
A.J. Terrell Jr.◄
0.5 cover/gm
Antoine Winfield Jr.
0.6 cover/gm
Jessie Bates III◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
Winner accuracy by grade, 1070 games. A high grade means a clearer mismatch — but the books know it too, so higher accuracy here does not mean a betting edge.
All validated trends · out-of-sample (2020–2026)
NFL · Members
The full board, confidence ratings, and daily plays — plus the complete track record. New plays every morning. The track record and featured picks above stay free.
NFL Pass
$9.99/mo
Just NFL
All-AccessBest value
$29.99/mo
All 5 sports
Secure checkout via Stripe. Cancel anytime. 21+. Bet responsibly.
