We simulate every NFL game on opponent-adjusted net EPA — offense and defense on both sides set the projected margin, scoring rates set the total — then post only the handful we have the most conviction in. Every posted game gets a grade and a projected score, and every one is graded against the real result.
Graded games
75.9%
the games we post · B+ or better
Full slate
62.5%
every game · n=1070
Market
67.4%
closing line · it’s better
Margin error
10.5
points, full slate
Accuracy is measured against the actual final score — did we pick the winner, and how many points off was the margin — not against the betting line. Across 2019–2025 the simulator calls 62.5% of all games straight up. The market’s closing line calls 67.4% — the NFL is the most efficient market in sports, so the full slate is worse than the market and we say so. It is a prediction tool, not a betting edge: it does not beat the spread. Analysis and entertainment, 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.
Board went 2-2 · full slate 8-8 straight up
Our 4 highest-conviction calls out of 16 games this week. We post at most 6, and nothing below a B+ — a thin week posts fewer rather than padding the board.
JAX
HOU
16
26
Offense
HOU
Defense
HOU
Called it ✓
JAX
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
Every game we simulated this week, highest conviction first. The board above is only the ones that cleared B+— here’s the whole week so nothing’s hidden.
JAX
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
HOU
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Trevor Lawrence
0.05 EPA/att
C.J. Stroud
The grade is our conviction in our own call — how big the projected margin is. Here is how each grade actually performed across 2019–2025:
Net EPA — opponent-adjusted expected points added on offense and defense, both sides of the ball — sets the projected margin. Scoring rates set the total. Ratings are computed as of that week’s kickoff, using only games already played, so nothing is graded with hindsight. Early in the season a team carries its prior-year rating until it has enough games to stand on its own.
It does not beat the spread. The NFL market is the sharpest in sports. We publish this because the projection and the matchup are interesting and we grade ourselves honestly against the real score — not because it prints money.
Also on our board
Separate from the simulator: situational trends mined from 1999–2026 seasons and validated out-of-sample. Only the ones that actually hold up.
The Sizzlin NFL Simulator is analysis and entertainment — not betting advice or a guaranteed outcome. 21+. 1-800-GAMBLER.
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
HOU
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Trevor Lawrence
0.05 EPA/att
C.J. Stroud◄
0.08 EPA/att
Bhayshul Tuten
-0.03 EPA/tch
David Montgomery◄
0.02 EPA/tch
Brian Thomas Jr.
0.14 EPA/tgt
Nico Collins◄
0.26 EPA/tgt
Brenton Strange◄
0.40 EPA/tgt
Dalton Schultz
0.29 EPA/tgt
Bad
6.8% sack rate
Average◄
5.1% sack rate
DaVon Hamilton
0.2 disrupt/gm
Tommy Togiai◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Josh Hines-Allen
1.0 press/gm
Will Anderson Jr.◄
1.2 press/gm
Foyesade Oluokun◄
0.9 impact/gm
Henry To'oTo'o
0.8 impact/gm
Montaric Brown
0.7 cover/gm
Kamari Lassiter◄
1.0 cover/gm
Antonio Johnson◄
0.8 cover/gm
Reed Blankenship
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
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0.08 EPA/att
Bhayshul Tuten
-0.03 EPA/tch
David Montgomery◄
0.02 EPA/tch
Brian Thomas Jr.
0.14 EPA/tgt
Nico Collins◄
0.26 EPA/tgt
Brenton Strange◄
0.40 EPA/tgt
Dalton Schultz
0.29 EPA/tgt
Bad
6.8% sack rate
Average◄
5.1% sack rate
DaVon Hamilton
0.2 disrupt/gm
Tommy Togiai◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Josh Hines-Allen
1.0 press/gm
Will Anderson Jr.◄
1.2 press/gm
Foyesade Oluokun◄
0.9 impact/gm
Henry To'oTo'o
0.8 impact/gm
Montaric Brown
0.7 cover/gm
Kamari Lassiter◄
1.0 cover/gm
Antonio Johnson◄
0.8 cover/gm
Reed Blankenship
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
DEN
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
NYJ
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Bo Nix◄
0.08 EPA/att
Geno Smith
-0.12 EPA/att
J.K. Dobbins◄
-0.00 EPA/tch
Breece Hall
-0.04 EPA/tch
Jaylen Waddle◄
0.27 EPA/tgt
Garrett Wilson
-0.02 EPA/tgt
Evan Engram
0.04 EPA/tgt
Mason Taylor◄
0.12 EPA/tgt
Elite◄
3.6% sack rate
Bad
10.8% sack rate
D.J. Jones◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Harrison Phillips
0.2 disrupt/gm
Zach Allen◄
1.1 press/gm
Will McDonald IV
0.9 press/gm
Nik Bonitto◄
1.2 impact/gm
Jamien Sherwood
1.0 impact/gm
Riley Moss
0.8 cover/gm
Nahshon Wright
0.8 cover/gm
Talanoa Hufanga◄
0.7 cover/gm
Dane Belton
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
NO
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
ATL
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Tyler Shough
0.00 EPA/att
Michael Penix Jr.◄
0.01 EPA/att
Travis Etienne Jr.
-0.03 EPA/tch
Bijan Robinson◄
0.03 EPA/tch
Chris Olave◄
0.19 EPA/tgt
Drake London
0.18 EPA/tgt
Juwan Johnson◄
0.29 EPA/tgt
Kyle Pitts Sr.
0.18 EPA/tgt
Bad
7.7% sack rate
Elite◄
4.6% sack rate
Davon Godchaux
0.1 disrupt/gm
Gervon Dexter Sr.◄
0.7 disrupt/gm
Colby Wooden
0.2 press/gm
Brandon Dorlus◄
0.8 press/gm
Kaden Elliss◄
1.0 impact/gm
Divine Deablo
0.7 impact/gm
Kool-Aid McKinstry◄
0.9 cover/gm
A.J. Terrell Jr.
0.5 cover/gm
Justin Reid
0.5 cover/gm
Jessie Bates III◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
NE
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
SF
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Drake Maye◄
0.25 EPA/att
Brock Purdy
0.13 EPA/att
Rhamondre Stevenson
-0.02 EPA/tch
Christian McCaffrey◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Romeo Doubs◄
0.30 EPA/tgt
Mike Evans
0.06 EPA/tgt
Hunter Henry
0.36 EPA/tgt
George Kittle◄
0.53 EPA/tgt
Average
8.7% sack rate
Average◄
4.5% sack rate
Cory Durden
0.2 disrupt/gm
Osa Odighizuwa◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Christian Barmore◄
no 2025 data
Keion White
0.2 press/gm
Dre'Mont Jones◄
0.6 impact/gm
Luke Gifford
0.1 impact/gm
Carlton Davis III◄
0.4 cover/gm
Deommodore Lenoir
0.3 cover/gm
Craig Woodson
0.3 cover/gm
Ji'Ayir Brown◄
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
LA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
CHI
OFF Balanced · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
Matthew Stafford◄
0.19 EPA/att
Caleb Williams
0.06 EPA/att
Kyren Williams
0.04 EPA/tch
D'Andre Swift◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Puka Nacua◄
0.59 EPA/tgt
Rome Odunze
0.18 EPA/tgt
Colby Parkinson
0.17 EPA/tgt
Colston Loveland◄
0.47 EPA/tgt
Elite
3.7% sack rate
Elite◄
4.0% sack rate
Poona Ford◄
0.3 disrupt/gm
Grady Jarrett
0.3 disrupt/gm
Kobie Turner
0.6 press/gm
Montez Sweat◄
0.9 press/gm
Byron Young◄
1.1 impact/gm
Devin Bush
0.9 impact/gm
Jaylen Watson◄
0.4 cover/gm
Cam Lewis
0.2 cover/gm
Kamren Kinchens◄
0.6 cover/gm
Xavier Woods
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
KC
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
LAC
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Patrick Mahomes◄
0.10 EPA/att
Justin Herbert
0.02 EPA/att
Kenneth Walker III
-0.02 EPA/tch
Omarion Hampton◄
-0.01 EPA/tch
Rashee Rice◄
0.15 EPA/tgt
Ladd McConkey
0.05 EPA/tgt
Travis Kelce◄
0.32 EPA/tgt
Charlie Kolar
0.15 EPA/tgt
Average◄
7.4% sack rate
Bad
9.5% sack rate
Khyiris Tonga
0.1 disrupt/gm
Dalvin Tomlinson◄
no 2025 data
George Karlaftis
0.8 press/gm
Teair Tart
no 2025 data
Drue Tranquill
0.7 impact/gm
Daiyan Henley◄
0.8 impact/gm
L'Jarius Sneed
0.2 cover/gm
Cam Hart◄
0.5 cover/gm
Alohi Gilman
0.5 cover/gm
Derwin James Jr.◄
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
DAL
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
NYG
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Dak Prescott◄
0.15 EPA/att
Jaxson Dart
0.01 EPA/att
Javonte Williams◄
-0.03 EPA/tch
Cam Skattebo
-0.05 EPA/tch
CeeDee Lamb◄
0.20 EPA/tgt
Malik Nabers
0.04 EPA/tgt
Jake Ferguson◄
0.16 EPA/tgt
Isaiah Likely
0.10 EPA/tgt
Elite◄
4.7% sack rate
Bad
8.4% sack rate
Otito Ogbonnia◄
0.3 disrupt/gm
DJ Reader
0.1 disrupt/gm
Quinnen Williams◄
no 2025 data
Shelby Harris
0.2 press/gm
Dee Winters
0.8 impact/gm
Brian Burns◄
1.8 impact/gm
Cobie Durant
0.5 cover/gm
Dru Phillips◄
0.6 cover/gm
Malik Hooker
0.2 cover/gm
Tyler Nubin◄
0.3 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
BUF
OFF Run-heavy · under-center
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
BAL
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Josh Allen◄
0.11 EPA/att
Lamar Jackson
0.04 EPA/att
James Cook III◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Derrick Henry
0.02 EPA/tch
DJ Moore
0.12 EPA/tgt
Zay Flowers◄
0.32 EPA/tgt
Dalton Kincaid◄
0.58 EPA/tgt
Mark Andrews
0.02 EPA/tgt
Good◄
7.5% sack rate
Good
9.6% sack rate
Deone Walker
0.4 disrupt/gm
Travis Jones◄
0.7 disrupt/gm
T.J. Sanders◄
no 2025 data
Calais Campbell
0.7 press/gm
Greg Rousseau
0.7 impact/gm
Roquan Smith◄
0.7 impact/gm
Dee Alford◄
0.8 cover/gm
Nate Wiggins
0.7 cover/gm
Cole Bishop◄
0.7 cover/gm
Malaki Starks
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
CIN
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
CAR
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Joe Burrow◄
0.08 EPA/att
Bryce Young
-0.03 EPA/att
Chase Brown◄
-0.04 EPA/tch
Chuba Hubbard
-0.05 EPA/tch
Ja'Marr Chase◄
0.19 EPA/tgt
Tetairoa McMillan
0.17 EPA/tgt
Mike Gesicki
0.07 EPA/tgt
Tommy Tremble◄
0.15 EPA/tgt
Good◄
5.3% sack rate
Average
6.4% sack rate
Dexter Lawrence II
0.3 disrupt/gm
Lee Hunter◄
no 2025 data
Boye Mafe
0.2 press/gm
Derrick Brown◄
no 2025 data
Demetrius Knight Jr.◄
0.8 impact/gm
Bobby Okereke
0.7 impact/gm
Dax Hill
0.5 cover/gm
Mike Jackson◄
1.0 cover/gm
Jordan Battle◄
0.7 cover/gm
Nick Scott
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
WAS
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
ARI
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Jayden Daniels
-0.01 EPA/att
Jacoby Brissett◄
-0.00 EPA/att
Jacory Croskey-Merritt◄
-0.02 EPA/tch
Jeremiyah Love
no 2025 data
Terry McLaurin◄
0.36 EPA/tgt
Marvin Harrison Jr.
0.31 EPA/tgt
Chig Okonkwo
0.13 EPA/tgt
Trey McBride◄
0.39 EPA/tgt
Good◄
7.3% sack rate
Bad
8.3% sack rate
Daron Payne◄
0.6 disrupt/gm
Roy Lopez
0.4 disrupt/gm
Tim Settle
no 2025 data
Josh Sweat
no 2025 data
Odafe Oweh◄
0.7 impact/gm
Jack Gibbens
0.7 impact/gm
Mike Sainristil◄
0.7 cover/gm
Denzel Burke
0.7 cover/gm
Nick Cross◄
0.5 cover/gm
Budda Baker
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
TEN
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
MIA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Cam Ward
-0.15 EPA/att
Malik Willis◄
0.13 EPA/att
Tony Pollard
-0.10 EPA/tch
De'Von Achane◄
0.01 EPA/tch
Carnell Tate◄
no 2025 data
Malik Washington
-0.10 EPA/tgt
Gunnar Helm
0.05 EPA/tgt
Greg Dulcich◄
0.34 EPA/tgt
Bad
8.9% sack rate
Good◄
7.4% sack rate
Jeffery Simmons◄
1.5 disrupt/gm
Jordan Phillips
0.2 disrupt/gm
Jermaine Johnson II
0.3 press/gm
Chop Robinson◄
no 2025 data
Cody Barton
0.7 impact/gm
Jordyn Brooks◄
1.2 impact/gm
Alontae Taylor◄
0.6 cover/gm
Jason Marshall Jr.
0.3 cover/gm
Amani Hooker◄
0.5 cover/gm
Dante Trader Jr.
0.2 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
CLE
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
LV
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Deshaun Watson◄
no 2025 data
Kirk Cousins
-0.00 EPA/att
Quinshon Judkins◄
-0.10 EPA/tch
Ashton Jeanty
-0.20 EPA/tch
Jerry Jeudy
-0.24 EPA/tgt
Tre Tucker◄
0.18 EPA/tgt
Harold Fannin Jr.
0.01 EPA/tgt
Brock Bowers◄
0.22 EPA/tgt
Bad◄
8.4% sack rate
Bad
11.1% sack rate
Mason Graham◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Adam Butler
0.3 disrupt/gm
Jared Verse◄
0.9 press/gm
Jonah Laulu
no 2025 data
Carson Schwesinger
0.9 impact/gm
Quay Walker◄
0.9 impact/gm
Tyson Campbell◄
0.7 cover/gm
Eric Stokes
0.2 cover/gm
Grant Delpit◄
0.4 cover/gm
Jeremy Chinn
0.3 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
PIT
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
IND
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Aaron Rodgers
0.04 EPA/att
Daniel Jones◄
0.11 EPA/att
Jaylen Warren
0.03 EPA/tch
Jonathan Taylor◄
0.07 EPA/tch
DK Metcalf
0.26 EPA/tgt
Alec Pierce◄
0.49 EPA/tgt
Darnell Washington◄
0.24 EPA/tgt
Tyler Warren
0.12 EPA/tgt
Good
5.3% sack rate
Good◄
5.0% sack rate
Keeanu Benton◄
0.6 disrupt/gm
Grover Stewart
0.3 disrupt/gm
Cameron Heyward
0.4 press/gm
Laiatu Latu◄
0.9 press/gm
Payton Wilson◄
0.7 impact/gm
Akeem Davis-Gaither
0.5 impact/gm
Jalen Ramsey
0.4 cover/gm
Sauce Gardner◄
0.5 cover/gm
Jaquan Brisker
0.6 cover/gm
Cam Bynum◄
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
PHI
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · four-man rush
TB
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Jalen Hurts◄
0.05 EPA/att
Baker Mayfield
0.00 EPA/att
Saquon Barkley◄
-0.08 EPA/tch
Bucky Irving
-0.10 EPA/tch
DeVonta Smith◄
0.38 EPA/tgt
Emeka Egbuka
0.05 EPA/tgt
Dallas Goedert◄
0.36 EPA/tgt
Cade Otton
0.03 EPA/tgt
Average
6.6% sack rate
Average◄
6.4% sack rate
Average
no data
Vita Vea◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Jalen Carter
no 2025 data
Calijah Kancey
no 2025 data
Zack Baun◄
1.0 impact/gm
Yaya Diaby
0.9 impact/gm
Quinyon Mitchell◄
0.7 cover/gm
Jacob Parrish
0.4 cover/gm
Andrew Mukuba
0.4 cover/gm
Antoine Winfield Jr.◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
MIN
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
GB
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Kyler Murray
0.02 EPA/att
Jordan Love◄
0.18 EPA/att
Aaron Jones Sr.
-0.04 EPA/tch
MarShawn Lloyd◄
no 2025 data
Justin Jefferson
-0.08 EPA/tgt
Christian Watson◄
0.38 EPA/tgt
T.J. Hockenson
0.17 EPA/tgt
Tucker Kraft◄
0.62 EPA/tgt
Bad
11.0% sack rate
Average◄
5.6% sack rate
Caleb Banks
no 2025 data
Javon Hargrave◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Levi Drake Rodriguez
no 2025 data
Karl Brooks
no 2025 data
Eric Wilson◄
1.1 impact/gm
Edgerrin Cooper
0.6 impact/gm
Byron Murphy Jr.
0.4 cover/gm
Keisean Nixon◄
0.7 cover/gm
Joshua Metellus
0.6 cover/gm
Evan Williams◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
SEA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
DET
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
Sam Darnold
0.11 EPA/att
Jared Goff◄
0.14 EPA/att
Brady Russell
-0.01 EPA/tch
Jahmyr Gibbs◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Jaxon Smith-Njigba◄
0.47 EPA/tgt
Amon-Ra St. Brown
0.28 EPA/tgt
AJ Barner
0.32 EPA/tgt
Sam LaPorta◄
0.54 EPA/tgt
Average
5.3% sack rate
Good◄
6.3% sack rate
Byron Murphy II◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Tyleik Williams
0.2 disrupt/gm
Leonard Williams
0.8 press/gm
Aidan Hutchinson◄
1.3 press/gm
DeMarcus Lawrence◄
0.8 impact/gm
Derrick Barnes
0.7 impact/gm
Josh Jobe◄
0.6 cover/gm
D.J. Reed
0.5 cover/gm
Ty Okada◄
0.5 cover/gm
Chuck Clark
0.3 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
Winner accuracy by grade, 1070 games. A high grade means a clearer mismatch — but the books know it too, so higher accuracy here does not mean a betting edge.
All validated trends · out-of-sample (2020–2026)
NFL · Members
The full board, confidence ratings, and daily plays — plus the complete track record. New plays every morning. The track record and featured picks above stay free.
NFL Pass
$9.99/mo
Just NFL
All-AccessBest value
$29.99/mo
All 5 sports
Secure checkout via Stripe. Cancel anytime. 21+. Bet responsibly.
