We simulate every NFL game on opponent-adjusted net EPA — offense and defense on both sides set the projected margin, scoring rates set the total — then post only the handful we have the most conviction in. Every posted game gets a grade and a projected score, and every one is graded against the real result.
Graded games
75.9%
the games we post · B+ or better
Full slate
62.5%
every game · n=1070
Market
67.4%
closing line · it’s better
Margin error
10.5
points, full slate
Accuracy is measured against the actual final score — did we pick the winner, and how many points off was the margin — not against the betting line. Across 2019–2025 the simulator calls 62.5% of all games straight up. The market’s closing line calls 67.4% — the NFL is the most efficient market in sports, so the full slate is worse than the market and we say so. It is a prediction tool, not a betting edge: it does not beat the spread. Analysis and entertainment, 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.
Board went 0-0 · full slate 8-8 straight up
Every game we simulated this week, highest conviction first. The board above is only the ones that cleared B+— here’s the whole week so nothing’s hidden.
JAX
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
BUF
OFF Run-heavy · under-center
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Trevor Lawrence
0.05 EPA/att
Josh Allen◄
The grade is our conviction in our own call — how big the projected margin is. Here is how each grade actually performed across 2019–2025:
Net EPA — opponent-adjusted expected points added on offense and defense, both sides of the ball — sets the projected margin. Scoring rates set the total. Ratings are computed as of that week’s kickoff, using only games already played, so nothing is graded with hindsight. Early in the season a team carries its prior-year rating until it has enough games to stand on its own.
It does not beat the spread. The NFL market is the sharpest in sports. We publish this because the projection and the matchup are interesting and we grade ourselves honestly against the real score — not because it prints money.
Also on our board
Separate from the simulator: situational trends mined from 1999–2026 seasons and validated out-of-sample. Only the ones that actually hold up.
The Sizzlin NFL Simulator is analysis and entertainment — not betting advice or a guaranteed outcome. 21+. 1-800-GAMBLER.
0.11 EPA/att
Bhayshul Tuten
-0.03 EPA/tch
James Cook III◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Brian Thomas Jr.◄
0.14 EPA/tgt
DJ Moore
0.12 EPA/tgt
Brenton Strange
0.40 EPA/tgt
Dalton Kincaid◄
0.58 EPA/tgt
Bad
6.8% sack rate
Good◄
7.5% sack rate
DaVon Hamilton
0.2 disrupt/gm
Deone Walker◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Josh Hines-Allen◄
1.0 press/gm
T.J. Sanders
no 2025 data
Foyesade Oluokun◄
0.9 impact/gm
Greg Rousseau
0.7 impact/gm
Montaric Brown
0.7 cover/gm
Dee Alford◄
0.8 cover/gm
Antonio Johnson◄
0.8 cover/gm
Cole Bishop
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
NYG
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
CLE
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Jaxson Dart
0.01 EPA/att
Deshaun Watson◄
no 2025 data
Cam Skattebo◄
-0.05 EPA/tch
Quinshon Judkins
-0.10 EPA/tch
Malik Nabers◄
0.04 EPA/tgt
Jerry Jeudy
-0.24 EPA/tgt
Isaiah Likely◄
0.10 EPA/tgt
Harold Fannin Jr.
0.01 EPA/tgt
Bad◄
8.4% sack rate
Bad
8.4% sack rate
DJ Reader
0.1 disrupt/gm
Mason Graham◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Shelby Harris
0.2 press/gm
Jared Verse◄
0.9 press/gm
Brian Burns◄
1.8 impact/gm
Carson Schwesinger
0.9 impact/gm
Dru Phillips
0.6 cover/gm
Tyson Campbell◄
0.7 cover/gm
Tyler Nubin
0.3 cover/gm
Grant Delpit◄
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
CAR
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
LV
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Bryce Young
-0.03 EPA/att
Kirk Cousins◄
-0.00 EPA/att
Chuba Hubbard◄
-0.05 EPA/tch
Ashton Jeanty
-0.20 EPA/tch
Tetairoa McMillan
0.17 EPA/tgt
Tre Tucker◄
0.18 EPA/tgt
Tommy Tremble
0.15 EPA/tgt
Brock Bowers◄
0.22 EPA/tgt
Average◄
6.4% sack rate
Bad
11.1% sack rate
Lee Hunter◄
no 2025 data
Adam Butler
0.3 disrupt/gm
Derrick Brown
no 2025 data
Jonah Laulu
no 2025 data
Bobby Okereke
0.7 impact/gm
Quay Walker◄
0.9 impact/gm
Mike Jackson◄
1.0 cover/gm
Eric Stokes
0.2 cover/gm
Nick Scott◄
0.4 cover/gm
Jeremy Chinn
0.3 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
WAS
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
CIN
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Jayden Daniels
-0.01 EPA/att
Joe Burrow◄
0.08 EPA/att
Jacory Croskey-Merritt◄
-0.02 EPA/tch
Chase Brown
-0.04 EPA/tch
Terry McLaurin◄
0.36 EPA/tgt
Ja'Marr Chase
0.19 EPA/tgt
Chig Okonkwo◄
0.13 EPA/tgt
Mike Gesicki
0.07 EPA/tgt
Good◄
7.3% sack rate
Good
5.3% sack rate
Daron Payne◄
0.6 disrupt/gm
Dexter Lawrence II
0.3 disrupt/gm
Tim Settle◄
no 2025 data
Boye Mafe
0.2 press/gm
Odafe Oweh
0.7 impact/gm
Demetrius Knight Jr.◄
0.8 impact/gm
Mike Sainristil◄
0.7 cover/gm
Dax Hill
0.5 cover/gm
Nick Cross
0.5 cover/gm
Jordan Battle◄
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
LAC
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
PIT
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Justin Herbert
0.02 EPA/att
Aaron Rodgers◄
0.04 EPA/att
Omarion Hampton
-0.01 EPA/tch
Jaylen Warren◄
0.03 EPA/tch
Ladd McConkey
0.05 EPA/tgt
DK Metcalf◄
0.26 EPA/tgt
Charlie Kolar
0.15 EPA/tgt
Darnell Washington◄
0.24 EPA/tgt
Bad
9.5% sack rate
Good◄
5.3% sack rate
Dalvin Tomlinson
no 2025 data
Keeanu Benton◄
0.6 disrupt/gm
Teair Tart◄
no 2025 data
Cameron Heyward
0.4 press/gm
Daiyan Henley◄
0.8 impact/gm
Payton Wilson
0.7 impact/gm
Cam Hart◄
0.5 cover/gm
Jalen Ramsey
0.4 cover/gm
Derwin James Jr.◄
0.7 cover/gm
Jaquan Brisker
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
PHI
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · four-man rush
NO
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Jalen Hurts◄
0.05 EPA/att
Tyler Shough
0.00 EPA/att
Saquon Barkley
-0.08 EPA/tch
Travis Etienne Jr.◄
-0.03 EPA/tch
DeVonta Smith◄
0.38 EPA/tgt
Chris Olave
0.19 EPA/tgt
Dallas Goedert◄
0.36 EPA/tgt
Juwan Johnson
0.29 EPA/tgt
Average◄
6.6% sack rate
Bad
7.7% sack rate
Average◄
no data
Davon Godchaux
0.1 disrupt/gm
Jalen Carter◄
no 2025 data
Colby Wooden
0.2 press/gm
Zack Baun
1.0 impact/gm
Kaden Elliss◄
1.0 impact/gm
Quinyon Mitchell
0.7 cover/gm
Kool-Aid McKinstry◄
0.9 cover/gm
Andrew Mukuba
0.4 cover/gm
Justin Reid◄
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
DEN
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
TB
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Bo Nix◄
0.08 EPA/att
Baker Mayfield
0.00 EPA/att
J.K. Dobbins◄
-0.00 EPA/tch
Bucky Irving
-0.10 EPA/tch
Jaylen Waddle◄
0.27 EPA/tgt
Emeka Egbuka
0.05 EPA/tgt
Evan Engram◄
0.04 EPA/tgt
Cade Otton
0.03 EPA/tgt
Elite◄
3.6% sack rate
Average
6.4% sack rate
D.J. Jones
0.4 disrupt/gm
Vita Vea◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Zach Allen◄
1.1 press/gm
Calijah Kancey
no 2025 data
Nik Bonitto◄
1.2 impact/gm
Yaya Diaby
0.9 impact/gm
Riley Moss◄
0.8 cover/gm
Jacob Parrish
0.4 cover/gm
Talanoa Hufanga◄
0.7 cover/gm
Antoine Winfield Jr.
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
DET
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
ARI
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Jared Goff◄
0.14 EPA/att
Jacoby Brissett
-0.00 EPA/att
Jahmyr Gibbs◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Jeremiyah Love
no 2025 data
Amon-Ra St. Brown
0.28 EPA/tgt
Marvin Harrison Jr.◄
0.31 EPA/tgt
Sam LaPorta◄
0.54 EPA/tgt
Trey McBride
0.39 EPA/tgt
Good◄
6.3% sack rate
Bad
8.3% sack rate
Tyleik Williams
0.2 disrupt/gm
Roy Lopez◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Aidan Hutchinson◄
1.3 press/gm
Josh Sweat
no 2025 data
Derrick Barnes
0.7 impact/gm
Jack Gibbens◄
0.7 impact/gm
D.J. Reed
0.5 cover/gm
Denzel Burke◄
0.7 cover/gm
Chuck Clark
0.3 cover/gm
Budda Baker◄
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
BAL
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
DAL
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Lamar Jackson
0.04 EPA/att
Dak Prescott◄
0.15 EPA/att
Derrick Henry◄
0.02 EPA/tch
Javonte Williams
-0.03 EPA/tch
Zay Flowers◄
0.32 EPA/tgt
CeeDee Lamb
0.20 EPA/tgt
Mark Andrews
0.02 EPA/tgt
Jake Ferguson◄
0.16 EPA/tgt
Good
9.6% sack rate
Elite◄
4.7% sack rate
Travis Jones◄
0.7 disrupt/gm
Otito Ogbonnia
0.3 disrupt/gm
Calais Campbell
0.7 press/gm
Quinnen Williams◄
no 2025 data
Roquan Smith
0.7 impact/gm
Dee Winters◄
0.8 impact/gm
Nate Wiggins◄
0.7 cover/gm
Cobie Durant
0.5 cover/gm
Malaki Starks◄
0.5 cover/gm
Malik Hooker
0.2 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
HOU
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
MIN
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
C.J. Stroud◄
0.08 EPA/att
Kyler Murray
0.02 EPA/att
David Montgomery◄
0.02 EPA/tch
Aaron Jones Sr.
-0.04 EPA/tch
Nico Collins◄
0.26 EPA/tgt
Justin Jefferson
-0.08 EPA/tgt
Dalton Schultz◄
0.29 EPA/tgt
T.J. Hockenson
0.17 EPA/tgt
Average◄
5.1% sack rate
Bad
11.0% sack rate
Tommy Togiai◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Caleb Banks
no 2025 data
Will Anderson Jr.◄
1.2 press/gm
Levi Drake Rodriguez
no 2025 data
Henry To'oTo'o
0.8 impact/gm
Eric Wilson◄
1.1 impact/gm
Kamari Lassiter◄
1.0 cover/gm
Byron Murphy Jr.
0.4 cover/gm
Reed Blankenship
0.4 cover/gm
Joshua Metellus◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
NE
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
NYJ
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Drake Maye◄
0.25 EPA/att
Geno Smith
-0.12 EPA/att
Rhamondre Stevenson◄
-0.02 EPA/tch
Breece Hall
-0.04 EPA/tch
Romeo Doubs◄
0.30 EPA/tgt
Garrett Wilson
-0.02 EPA/tgt
Hunter Henry◄
0.36 EPA/tgt
Mason Taylor
0.12 EPA/tgt
Average◄
8.7% sack rate
Bad
10.8% sack rate
Cory Durden
0.2 disrupt/gm
Harrison Phillips◄
0.2 disrupt/gm
Christian Barmore
no 2025 data
Will McDonald IV◄
0.9 press/gm
Dre'Mont Jones
0.6 impact/gm
Jamien Sherwood◄
1.0 impact/gm
Carlton Davis III
0.4 cover/gm
Nahshon Wright◄
0.8 cover/gm
Craig Woodson
0.3 cover/gm
Dane Belton◄
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
CHI
OFF Balanced · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
IND
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Caleb Williams
0.06 EPA/att
Daniel Jones◄
0.11 EPA/att
D'Andre Swift
0.04 EPA/tch
Jonathan Taylor◄
0.07 EPA/tch
Rome Odunze
0.18 EPA/tgt
Alec Pierce◄
0.49 EPA/tgt
Colston Loveland◄
0.47 EPA/tgt
Tyler Warren
0.12 EPA/tgt
Elite◄
4.0% sack rate
Good
5.0% sack rate
Grady Jarrett
0.3 disrupt/gm
Grover Stewart◄
0.3 disrupt/gm
Montez Sweat◄
0.9 press/gm
Laiatu Latu
0.9 press/gm
Devin Bush◄
0.9 impact/gm
Akeem Davis-Gaither
0.5 impact/gm
Cam Lewis
0.2 cover/gm
Sauce Gardner◄
0.5 cover/gm
Xavier Woods
0.4 cover/gm
Cam Bynum◄
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
SF
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
LA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Brock Purdy
0.13 EPA/att
Matthew Stafford◄
0.19 EPA/att
Christian McCaffrey
0.04 EPA/tch
Kyren Williams◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Mike Evans
0.06 EPA/tgt
Puka Nacua◄
0.59 EPA/tgt
George Kittle◄
0.53 EPA/tgt
Colby Parkinson
0.17 EPA/tgt
Average
4.5% sack rate
Elite◄
3.7% sack rate
Osa Odighizuwa◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Poona Ford
0.3 disrupt/gm
Keion White
0.2 press/gm
Kobie Turner◄
0.6 press/gm
Luke Gifford
0.1 impact/gm
Byron Young◄
1.1 impact/gm
Deommodore Lenoir
0.3 cover/gm
Jaylen Watson◄
0.4 cover/gm
Ji'Ayir Brown
0.5 cover/gm
Kamren Kinchens◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
MIA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
SEA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Malik Willis◄
0.13 EPA/att
Sam Darnold
0.11 EPA/att
De'Von Achane◄
0.01 EPA/tch
Brady Russell
-0.01 EPA/tch
Malik Washington
-0.10 EPA/tgt
Jaxon Smith-Njigba◄
0.47 EPA/tgt
Greg Dulcich◄
0.34 EPA/tgt
AJ Barner
0.32 EPA/tgt
Good◄
7.4% sack rate
Average
5.3% sack rate
Jordan Phillips
0.2 disrupt/gm
Byron Murphy II◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Chop Robinson
no 2025 data
Leonard Williams
0.8 press/gm
Jordyn Brooks◄
1.2 impact/gm
DeMarcus Lawrence
0.8 impact/gm
Jason Marshall Jr.
0.3 cover/gm
Josh Jobe◄
0.6 cover/gm
Dante Trader Jr.
0.2 cover/gm
Ty Okada◄
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
KC
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
ATL
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Patrick Mahomes◄
0.10 EPA/att
Michael Penix Jr.
0.01 EPA/att
Kenneth Walker III
-0.02 EPA/tch
Bijan Robinson◄
0.03 EPA/tch
Rashee Rice
0.15 EPA/tgt
Drake London◄
0.18 EPA/tgt
Travis Kelce◄
0.32 EPA/tgt
Kyle Pitts Sr.
0.18 EPA/tgt
Average
7.4% sack rate
Elite◄
4.6% sack rate
Khyiris Tonga
0.1 disrupt/gm
Gervon Dexter Sr.◄
0.7 disrupt/gm
George Karlaftis◄
0.8 press/gm
Brandon Dorlus
0.8 press/gm
Drue Tranquill
0.7 impact/gm
Divine Deablo◄
0.7 impact/gm
L'Jarius Sneed
0.2 cover/gm
A.J. Terrell Jr.◄
0.5 cover/gm
Alohi Gilman
0.5 cover/gm
Jessie Bates III◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
GB
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
TEN
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Jordan Love◄
0.18 EPA/att
Cam Ward
-0.15 EPA/att
MarShawn Lloyd◄
no 2025 data
Tony Pollard
-0.10 EPA/tch
Christian Watson◄
0.38 EPA/tgt
Carnell Tate
no 2025 data
Tucker Kraft◄
0.62 EPA/tgt
Gunnar Helm
0.05 EPA/tgt
Average◄
5.6% sack rate
Bad
8.9% sack rate
Javon Hargrave
0.4 disrupt/gm
Jeffery Simmons◄
1.5 disrupt/gm
Karl Brooks◄
no 2025 data
Jermaine Johnson II
0.3 press/gm
Edgerrin Cooper
0.6 impact/gm
Cody Barton◄
0.7 impact/gm
Keisean Nixon◄
0.7 cover/gm
Alontae Taylor
0.6 cover/gm
Evan Williams◄
0.6 cover/gm
Amani Hooker
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
Winner accuracy by grade, 1070 games. A high grade means a clearer mismatch — but the books know it too, so higher accuracy here does not mean a betting edge.
All validated trends · out-of-sample (2020–2026)
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