We simulate every NFL game on opponent-adjusted net EPA — offense and defense on both sides set the projected margin, scoring rates set the total — then post only the handful we have the most conviction in. Every posted game gets a grade and a projected score, and every one is graded against the real result.
Graded games
75.9%
the games we post · B+ or better
Full slate
62.5%
every game · n=1070
Market
67.4%
closing line · it’s better
Margin error
10.5
points, full slate
Accuracy is measured against the actual final score — did we pick the winner, and how many points off was the margin — not against the betting line. Across 2019–2025 the simulator calls 62.5% of all games straight up. The market’s closing line calls 67.4% — the NFL is the most efficient market in sports, so the full slate is worse than the market and we say so. It is a prediction tool, not a betting edge: it does not beat the spread. Analysis and entertainment, 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.
Board went 0-1 · full slate 4-12 straight up
Our 1 highest-conviction calls out of 16 games this week. We post at most 6, and nothing below a B+ — a thin week posts fewer rather than padding the board.
LV
BAL
17
25
Offense
BAL
Defense
BAL
Missed the winner
LV
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
BAL
Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
Every game we simulated this week, highest conviction first. The board above is only the ones that cleared B+— here’s the whole week so nothing’s hidden.
LV
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
BAL
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Kirk Cousins
-0.00 EPA/att
Lamar Jackson◄
The grade is our conviction in our own call — how big the projected margin is. Here is how each grade actually performed across 2019–2025:
Net EPA — opponent-adjusted expected points added on offense and defense, both sides of the ball — sets the projected margin. Scoring rates set the total. Ratings are computed as of that week’s kickoff, using only games already played, so nothing is graded with hindsight. Early in the season a team carries its prior-year rating until it has enough games to stand on its own.
It does not beat the spread. The NFL market is the sharpest in sports. We publish this because the projection and the matchup are interesting and we grade ourselves honestly against the real score — not because it prints money.
Also on our board
Separate from the simulator: situational trends mined from 1999–2026 seasons and validated out-of-sample. Only the ones that actually hold up.
The Sizzlin NFL Simulator is analysis and entertainment — not betting advice or a guaranteed outcome. 21+. 1-800-GAMBLER.
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Kirk Cousins
-0.00 EPA/att
Lamar Jackson◄
0.04 EPA/att
Ashton Jeanty
-0.20 EPA/tch
Derrick Henry◄
0.02 EPA/tch
Tre Tucker
0.18 EPA/tgt
Zay Flowers◄
0.32 EPA/tgt
Brock Bowers◄
0.22 EPA/tgt
Mark Andrews
0.02 EPA/tgt
Bad
11.1% sack rate
Good◄
9.6% sack rate
Adam Butler
0.3 disrupt/gm
Travis Jones◄
0.7 disrupt/gm
Jonah Laulu◄
no 2025 data
Calais Campbell
0.7 press/gm
Quay Walker◄
0.9 impact/gm
Roquan Smith
0.7 impact/gm
Eric Stokes
0.2 cover/gm
Nate Wiggins◄
0.7 cover/gm
Jeremy Chinn
0.3 cover/gm
Malaki Starks◄
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
0.04 EPA/att
Ashton Jeanty
-0.20 EPA/tch
Derrick Henry◄
0.02 EPA/tch
Tre Tucker
0.18 EPA/tgt
Zay Flowers◄
0.32 EPA/tgt
Brock Bowers◄
0.22 EPA/tgt
Mark Andrews
0.02 EPA/tgt
Bad
11.1% sack rate
Good◄
9.6% sack rate
Adam Butler
0.3 disrupt/gm
Travis Jones◄
0.7 disrupt/gm
Jonah Laulu◄
no 2025 data
Calais Campbell
0.7 press/gm
Quay Walker◄
0.9 impact/gm
Roquan Smith
0.7 impact/gm
Eric Stokes
0.2 cover/gm
Nate Wiggins◄
0.7 cover/gm
Jeremy Chinn
0.3 cover/gm
Malaki Starks◄
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
NO
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
DAL
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Tyler Shough
0.00 EPA/att
Dak Prescott◄
0.15 EPA/att
Travis Etienne Jr.◄
-0.03 EPA/tch
Javonte Williams
-0.03 EPA/tch
Chris Olave
0.19 EPA/tgt
CeeDee Lamb◄
0.20 EPA/tgt
Juwan Johnson◄
0.29 EPA/tgt
Jake Ferguson
0.16 EPA/tgt
Bad
7.7% sack rate
Elite◄
4.7% sack rate
Davon Godchaux
0.1 disrupt/gm
Otito Ogbonnia◄
0.3 disrupt/gm
Colby Wooden
0.2 press/gm
Quinnen Williams◄
no 2025 data
Kaden Elliss◄
1.0 impact/gm
Dee Winters
0.8 impact/gm
Kool-Aid McKinstry◄
0.9 cover/gm
Cobie Durant
0.5 cover/gm
Justin Reid◄
0.5 cover/gm
Malik Hooker
0.2 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
CIN
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
KC
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Joe Burrow
0.08 EPA/att
Patrick Mahomes◄
0.10 EPA/att
Chase Brown
-0.04 EPA/tch
Kenneth Walker III◄
-0.02 EPA/tch
Ja'Marr Chase◄
0.19 EPA/tgt
Rashee Rice
0.15 EPA/tgt
Mike Gesicki
0.07 EPA/tgt
Travis Kelce◄
0.32 EPA/tgt
Good◄
5.3% sack rate
Average
7.4% sack rate
Dexter Lawrence II◄
0.3 disrupt/gm
Khyiris Tonga
0.1 disrupt/gm
Boye Mafe
0.2 press/gm
George Karlaftis◄
0.8 press/gm
Demetrius Knight Jr.◄
0.8 impact/gm
Drue Tranquill
0.7 impact/gm
Dax Hill◄
0.5 cover/gm
L'Jarius Sneed
0.2 cover/gm
Jordan Battle◄
0.7 cover/gm
Alohi Gilman
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
TB
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
DET
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
Baker Mayfield
0.00 EPA/att
Jared Goff◄
0.14 EPA/att
Bucky Irving
-0.10 EPA/tch
Jahmyr Gibbs◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Emeka Egbuka
0.05 EPA/tgt
Amon-Ra St. Brown◄
0.28 EPA/tgt
Cade Otton
0.03 EPA/tgt
Sam LaPorta◄
0.54 EPA/tgt
Average
6.4% sack rate
Good◄
6.3% sack rate
Vita Vea◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Tyleik Williams
0.2 disrupt/gm
Calijah Kancey
no 2025 data
Aidan Hutchinson◄
1.3 press/gm
Yaya Diaby◄
0.9 impact/gm
Derrick Barnes
0.7 impact/gm
Jacob Parrish
0.4 cover/gm
D.J. Reed◄
0.5 cover/gm
Antoine Winfield Jr.◄
0.6 cover/gm
Chuck Clark
0.3 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
IND
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
GB
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Daniel Jones
0.11 EPA/att
Jordan Love◄
0.18 EPA/att
Jonathan Taylor◄
0.07 EPA/tch
MarShawn Lloyd
no 2025 data
Alec Pierce◄
0.49 EPA/tgt
Christian Watson
0.38 EPA/tgt
Tyler Warren
0.12 EPA/tgt
Tucker Kraft◄
0.62 EPA/tgt
Good◄
5.0% sack rate
Average
5.6% sack rate
Grover Stewart
0.3 disrupt/gm
Javon Hargrave◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Laiatu Latu◄
0.9 press/gm
Karl Brooks
no 2025 data
Akeem Davis-Gaither
0.5 impact/gm
Edgerrin Cooper◄
0.6 impact/gm
Sauce Gardner
0.5 cover/gm
Keisean Nixon◄
0.7 cover/gm
Cam Bynum◄
0.7 cover/gm
Evan Williams
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
NYJ
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
TEN
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Geno Smith◄
-0.12 EPA/att
Cam Ward
-0.15 EPA/att
Breece Hall◄
-0.04 EPA/tch
Tony Pollard
-0.10 EPA/tch
Garrett Wilson
-0.02 EPA/tgt
Carnell Tate◄
no 2025 data
Mason Taylor◄
0.12 EPA/tgt
Gunnar Helm
0.05 EPA/tgt
Bad◄
10.8% sack rate
Bad
8.9% sack rate
Harrison Phillips
0.2 disrupt/gm
Jeffery Simmons◄
1.5 disrupt/gm
Will McDonald IV◄
0.9 press/gm
Jermaine Johnson II
0.3 press/gm
Jamien Sherwood◄
1.0 impact/gm
Cody Barton
0.7 impact/gm
Nahshon Wright◄
0.8 cover/gm
Alontae Taylor
0.6 cover/gm
Dane Belton
0.5 cover/gm
Amani Hooker◄
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
ATL
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
PHI
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · four-man rush
Michael Penix Jr.
0.01 EPA/att
Jalen Hurts◄
0.05 EPA/att
Bijan Robinson◄
0.03 EPA/tch
Saquon Barkley
-0.08 EPA/tch
Drake London
0.18 EPA/tgt
DeVonta Smith◄
0.38 EPA/tgt
Kyle Pitts Sr.
0.18 EPA/tgt
Dallas Goedert◄
0.36 EPA/tgt
Elite◄
4.6% sack rate
Average
6.6% sack rate
Gervon Dexter Sr.◄
0.7 disrupt/gm
Average
no data
Brandon Dorlus
0.8 press/gm
Jalen Carter◄
no 2025 data
Divine Deablo
0.7 impact/gm
Zack Baun◄
1.0 impact/gm
A.J. Terrell Jr.
0.5 cover/gm
Quinyon Mitchell◄
0.7 cover/gm
Jessie Bates III◄
0.6 cover/gm
Andrew Mukuba
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
CHI
OFF Balanced · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
HOU
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Caleb Williams
0.06 EPA/att
C.J. Stroud◄
0.08 EPA/att
D'Andre Swift◄
0.04 EPA/tch
David Montgomery
0.02 EPA/tch
Rome Odunze
0.18 EPA/tgt
Nico Collins◄
0.26 EPA/tgt
Colston Loveland◄
0.47 EPA/tgt
Dalton Schultz
0.29 EPA/tgt
Elite◄
4.0% sack rate
Average
5.1% sack rate
Grady Jarrett
0.3 disrupt/gm
Tommy Togiai◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Montez Sweat
0.9 press/gm
Will Anderson Jr.◄
1.2 press/gm
Devin Bush◄
0.9 impact/gm
Henry To'oTo'o
0.8 impact/gm
Cam Lewis
0.2 cover/gm
Kamari Lassiter◄
1.0 cover/gm
Xavier Woods◄
0.4 cover/gm
Reed Blankenship
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
SF
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
MIN
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Brock Purdy◄
0.13 EPA/att
Kyler Murray
0.02 EPA/att
Christian McCaffrey◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Aaron Jones Sr.
-0.04 EPA/tch
Mike Evans◄
0.06 EPA/tgt
Justin Jefferson
-0.08 EPA/tgt
George Kittle◄
0.53 EPA/tgt
T.J. Hockenson
0.17 EPA/tgt
Average◄
4.5% sack rate
Bad
11.0% sack rate
Osa Odighizuwa◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Caleb Banks
no 2025 data
Keion White
0.2 press/gm
Levi Drake Rodriguez◄
no 2025 data
Luke Gifford
0.1 impact/gm
Eric Wilson◄
1.1 impact/gm
Deommodore Lenoir
0.3 cover/gm
Byron Murphy Jr.◄
0.4 cover/gm
Ji'Ayir Brown
0.5 cover/gm
Joshua Metellus◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
NYG
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
WAS
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Jaxson Dart◄
0.01 EPA/att
Jayden Daniels
-0.01 EPA/att
Cam Skattebo
-0.05 EPA/tch
Jacory Croskey-Merritt◄
-0.02 EPA/tch
Malik Nabers
0.04 EPA/tgt
Terry McLaurin◄
0.36 EPA/tgt
Isaiah Likely
0.10 EPA/tgt
Chig Okonkwo◄
0.13 EPA/tgt
Bad
8.4% sack rate
Good◄
7.3% sack rate
DJ Reader
0.1 disrupt/gm
Daron Payne◄
0.6 disrupt/gm
Shelby Harris
0.2 press/gm
Tim Settle◄
no 2025 data
Brian Burns◄
1.8 impact/gm
Odafe Oweh
0.7 impact/gm
Dru Phillips
0.6 cover/gm
Mike Sainristil◄
0.7 cover/gm
Tyler Nubin
0.3 cover/gm
Nick Cross◄
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
LA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
ARI
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Matthew Stafford◄
0.19 EPA/att
Jacoby Brissett
-0.00 EPA/att
Kyren Williams◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Jeremiyah Love
no 2025 data
Puka Nacua◄
0.59 EPA/tgt
Marvin Harrison Jr.
0.31 EPA/tgt
Colby Parkinson
0.17 EPA/tgt
Trey McBride◄
0.39 EPA/tgt
Elite◄
3.7% sack rate
Bad
8.3% sack rate
Poona Ford
0.3 disrupt/gm
Roy Lopez◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Kobie Turner
0.6 press/gm
Josh Sweat◄
no 2025 data
Byron Young◄
1.1 impact/gm
Jack Gibbens
0.7 impact/gm
Jaylen Watson
0.4 cover/gm
Denzel Burke◄
0.7 cover/gm
Kamren Kinchens◄
0.6 cover/gm
Budda Baker
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
PIT
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
DEN
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
Aaron Rodgers
0.04 EPA/att
Bo Nix◄
0.08 EPA/att
Jaylen Warren◄
0.03 EPA/tch
J.K. Dobbins
-0.00 EPA/tch
DK Metcalf
0.26 EPA/tgt
Jaylen Waddle◄
0.27 EPA/tgt
Darnell Washington◄
0.24 EPA/tgt
Evan Engram
0.04 EPA/tgt
Good
5.3% sack rate
Elite◄
3.6% sack rate
Keeanu Benton◄
0.6 disrupt/gm
D.J. Jones
0.4 disrupt/gm
Cameron Heyward
0.4 press/gm
Zach Allen◄
1.1 press/gm
Payton Wilson
0.7 impact/gm
Nik Bonitto◄
1.2 impact/gm
Jalen Ramsey
0.4 cover/gm
Riley Moss◄
0.8 cover/gm
Jaquan Brisker
0.6 cover/gm
Talanoa Hufanga◄
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
BUF
OFF Run-heavy · under-center
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
MIA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Josh Allen
0.11 EPA/att
Malik Willis◄
0.13 EPA/att
James Cook III◄
0.04 EPA/tch
De'Von Achane
0.01 EPA/tch
DJ Moore◄
0.12 EPA/tgt
Malik Washington
-0.10 EPA/tgt
Dalton Kincaid◄
0.58 EPA/tgt
Greg Dulcich
0.34 EPA/tgt
Good◄
7.5% sack rate
Good
7.4% sack rate
Deone Walker◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Jordan Phillips
0.2 disrupt/gm
T.J. Sanders
no 2025 data
Chop Robinson
no 2025 data
Greg Rousseau
0.7 impact/gm
Jordyn Brooks◄
1.2 impact/gm
Dee Alford◄
0.8 cover/gm
Jason Marshall Jr.
0.3 cover/gm
Cole Bishop◄
0.7 cover/gm
Dante Trader Jr.
0.2 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
SEA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
NE
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Sam Darnold
0.11 EPA/att
Drake Maye◄
0.25 EPA/att
Brady Russell◄
-0.01 EPA/tch
Rhamondre Stevenson
-0.02 EPA/tch
Jaxon Smith-Njigba◄
0.47 EPA/tgt
Romeo Doubs
0.30 EPA/tgt
AJ Barner
0.32 EPA/tgt
Hunter Henry◄
0.36 EPA/tgt
Average◄
5.3% sack rate
Average
8.7% sack rate
Byron Murphy II◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Cory Durden
0.2 disrupt/gm
Leonard Williams
0.8 press/gm
Christian Barmore
no 2025 data
DeMarcus Lawrence◄
0.8 impact/gm
Dre'Mont Jones
0.6 impact/gm
Josh Jobe◄
0.6 cover/gm
Carlton Davis III
0.4 cover/gm
Ty Okada◄
0.5 cover/gm
Craig Woodson
0.3 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
CLE
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
JAX
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Deshaun Watson◄
no 2025 data
Trevor Lawrence
0.05 EPA/att
Quinshon Judkins
-0.10 EPA/tch
Bhayshul Tuten◄
-0.03 EPA/tch
Jerry Jeudy
-0.24 EPA/tgt
Brian Thomas Jr.◄
0.14 EPA/tgt
Harold Fannin Jr.
0.01 EPA/tgt
Brenton Strange◄
0.40 EPA/tgt
Bad
8.4% sack rate
Bad◄
6.8% sack rate
Mason Graham◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
DaVon Hamilton
0.2 disrupt/gm
Jared Verse
0.9 press/gm
Josh Hines-Allen◄
1.0 press/gm
Carson Schwesinger
0.9 impact/gm
Foyesade Oluokun◄
0.9 impact/gm
Tyson Campbell◄
0.7 cover/gm
Montaric Brown
0.7 cover/gm
Grant Delpit
0.4 cover/gm
Antonio Johnson◄
0.8 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
LAC
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
CAR
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Justin Herbert◄
0.02 EPA/att
Bryce Young
-0.03 EPA/att
Omarion Hampton◄
-0.01 EPA/tch
Chuba Hubbard
-0.05 EPA/tch
Ladd McConkey
0.05 EPA/tgt
Tetairoa McMillan◄
0.17 EPA/tgt
Charlie Kolar◄
0.15 EPA/tgt
Tommy Tremble
0.15 EPA/tgt
Bad
9.5% sack rate
Average◄
6.4% sack rate
Dalvin Tomlinson
no 2025 data
Lee Hunter
no 2025 data
Teair Tart
no 2025 data
Derrick Brown
no 2025 data
Daiyan Henley◄
0.8 impact/gm
Bobby Okereke
0.7 impact/gm
Cam Hart
0.5 cover/gm
Mike Jackson◄
1.0 cover/gm
Derwin James Jr.◄
0.7 cover/gm
Nick Scott
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
Winner accuracy by grade, 1070 games. A high grade means a clearer mismatch — but the books know it too, so higher accuracy here does not mean a betting edge.
All validated trends · out-of-sample (2020–2026)
NFL · Members
The full board, confidence ratings, and daily plays — plus the complete track record. New plays every morning. The track record and featured picks above stay free.
NFL Pass
$9.99/mo
Just NFL
All-AccessBest value
$29.99/mo
All 5 sports
Secure checkout via Stripe. Cancel anytime. 21+. Bet responsibly.
