We simulate every NFL game on opponent-adjusted net EPA — offense and defense on both sides set the projected margin, scoring rates set the total — then post only the handful we have the most conviction in. Every posted game gets a grade and a projected score, and every one is graded against the real result.
Graded games
75.9%
the games we post · B+ or better
Full slate
62.5%
every game · n=1070
Market
67.4%
closing line · it’s better
Margin error
10.5
points, full slate
Accuracy is measured against the actual final score — did we pick the winner, and how many points off was the margin — not against the betting line. Across 2019–2025 the simulator calls 62.5% of all games straight up. The market’s closing line calls 67.4% — the NFL is the most efficient market in sports, so the full slate is worse than the market and we say so. It is a prediction tool, not a betting edge: it does not beat the spread. Analysis and entertainment, 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.
Board went 2-1 · full slate 11-5 straight up
Our 3 highest-conviction calls out of 16 games this week. We post at most 6, and nothing below a B+ — a thin week posts fewer rather than padding the board.
CLE
BAL
17
29
Offense
BAL
Defense
BAL
Called it ✓
CLE
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
BAL
Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
Every game we simulated this week, highest conviction first. The board above is only the ones that cleared B+— here’s the whole week so nothing’s hidden.
CLE
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
BAL
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Deshaun Watson◄
no 2025 data
The grade is our conviction in our own call — how big the projected margin is. Here is how each grade actually performed across 2019–2025:
Net EPA — opponent-adjusted expected points added on offense and defense, both sides of the ball — sets the projected margin. Scoring rates set the total. Ratings are computed as of that week’s kickoff, using only games already played, so nothing is graded with hindsight. Early in the season a team carries its prior-year rating until it has enough games to stand on its own.
It does not beat the spread. The NFL market is the sharpest in sports. We publish this because the projection and the matchup are interesting and we grade ourselves honestly against the real score — not because it prints money.
Also on our board
Separate from the simulator: situational trends mined from 1999–2026 seasons and validated out-of-sample. Only the ones that actually hold up.
The Sizzlin NFL Simulator is analysis and entertainment — not betting advice or a guaranteed outcome. 21+. 1-800-GAMBLER.
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Deshaun Watson◄
no 2025 data
Lamar Jackson
0.04 EPA/att
Quinshon Judkins
-0.10 EPA/tch
Derrick Henry◄
0.02 EPA/tch
Jerry Jeudy
-0.24 EPA/tgt
Zay Flowers◄
0.32 EPA/tgt
Harold Fannin Jr.
0.01 EPA/tgt
Mark Andrews◄
0.02 EPA/tgt
Bad
8.4% sack rate
Good◄
9.6% sack rate
Mason Graham
0.4 disrupt/gm
Travis Jones◄
0.7 disrupt/gm
Jared Verse◄
0.9 press/gm
Calais Campbell
0.7 press/gm
Carson Schwesinger◄
0.9 impact/gm
Roquan Smith
0.7 impact/gm
Tyson Campbell
0.7 cover/gm
Nate Wiggins
0.7 cover/gm
Grant Delpit
0.4 cover/gm
Malaki Starks◄
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
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Lamar Jackson
0.04 EPA/att
Quinshon Judkins
-0.10 EPA/tch
Derrick Henry◄
0.02 EPA/tch
Jerry Jeudy
-0.24 EPA/tgt
Zay Flowers◄
0.32 EPA/tgt
Harold Fannin Jr.
0.01 EPA/tgt
Mark Andrews◄
0.02 EPA/tgt
Bad
8.4% sack rate
Good◄
9.6% sack rate
Mason Graham
0.4 disrupt/gm
Travis Jones◄
0.7 disrupt/gm
Jared Verse◄
0.9 press/gm
Calais Campbell
0.7 press/gm
Carson Schwesinger◄
0.9 impact/gm
Roquan Smith
0.7 impact/gm
Tyson Campbell
0.7 cover/gm
Nate Wiggins
0.7 cover/gm
Grant Delpit
0.4 cover/gm
Malaki Starks◄
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
NYG
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
PHI
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · four-man rush
Jaxson Dart
0.01 EPA/att
Jalen Hurts◄
0.05 EPA/att
Cam Skattebo◄
-0.05 EPA/tch
Saquon Barkley
-0.08 EPA/tch
Malik Nabers
0.04 EPA/tgt
DeVonta Smith◄
0.38 EPA/tgt
Isaiah Likely
0.10 EPA/tgt
Dallas Goedert◄
0.36 EPA/tgt
Bad
8.4% sack rate
Average◄
6.6% sack rate
DJ Reader
0.1 disrupt/gm
Average◄
no data
Shelby Harris
0.2 press/gm
Jalen Carter◄
no 2025 data
Brian Burns◄
1.8 impact/gm
Zack Baun
1.0 impact/gm
Dru Phillips
0.6 cover/gm
Quinyon Mitchell◄
0.7 cover/gm
Tyler Nubin
0.3 cover/gm
Andrew Mukuba◄
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
CHI
OFF Balanced · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
GB
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Caleb Williams
0.06 EPA/att
Jordan Love◄
0.18 EPA/att
D'Andre Swift◄
0.04 EPA/tch
MarShawn Lloyd
no 2025 data
Rome Odunze
0.18 EPA/tgt
Christian Watson◄
0.38 EPA/tgt
Colston Loveland
0.47 EPA/tgt
Tucker Kraft◄
0.62 EPA/tgt
Elite◄
4.0% sack rate
Average
5.6% sack rate
Grady Jarrett
0.3 disrupt/gm
Javon Hargrave◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Montez Sweat◄
0.9 press/gm
Karl Brooks
no 2025 data
Devin Bush◄
0.9 impact/gm
Edgerrin Cooper
0.6 impact/gm
Cam Lewis
0.2 cover/gm
Keisean Nixon◄
0.7 cover/gm
Xavier Woods
0.4 cover/gm
Evan Williams◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
CAR
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
ATL
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Bryce Young
-0.03 EPA/att
Michael Penix Jr.◄
0.01 EPA/att
Chuba Hubbard
-0.05 EPA/tch
Bijan Robinson◄
0.03 EPA/tch
Tetairoa McMillan
0.17 EPA/tgt
Drake London◄
0.18 EPA/tgt
Tommy Tremble
0.15 EPA/tgt
Kyle Pitts Sr.◄
0.18 EPA/tgt
Average
6.4% sack rate
Elite◄
4.6% sack rate
Lee Hunter
no 2025 data
Gervon Dexter Sr.◄
0.7 disrupt/gm
Derrick Brown◄
no 2025 data
Brandon Dorlus
0.8 press/gm
Bobby Okereke
0.7 impact/gm
Divine Deablo◄
0.7 impact/gm
Mike Jackson◄
1.0 cover/gm
A.J. Terrell Jr.
0.5 cover/gm
Nick Scott
0.4 cover/gm
Jessie Bates III◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
NO
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
TB
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Tyler Shough◄
0.00 EPA/att
Baker Mayfield
0.00 EPA/att
Travis Etienne Jr.◄
-0.03 EPA/tch
Bucky Irving
-0.10 EPA/tch
Chris Olave◄
0.19 EPA/tgt
Emeka Egbuka
0.05 EPA/tgt
Juwan Johnson◄
0.29 EPA/tgt
Cade Otton
0.03 EPA/tgt
Bad
7.7% sack rate
Average◄
6.4% sack rate
Davon Godchaux
0.1 disrupt/gm
Vita Vea◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Colby Wooden
0.2 press/gm
Calijah Kancey◄
no 2025 data
Kaden Elliss◄
1.0 impact/gm
Yaya Diaby
0.9 impact/gm
Kool-Aid McKinstry◄
0.9 cover/gm
Jacob Parrish
0.4 cover/gm
Justin Reid
0.5 cover/gm
Antoine Winfield Jr.◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
BUF
OFF Run-heavy · under-center
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
NE
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Josh Allen
0.11 EPA/att
Drake Maye◄
0.25 EPA/att
James Cook III◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Rhamondre Stevenson
-0.02 EPA/tch
DJ Moore
0.12 EPA/tgt
Romeo Doubs◄
0.30 EPA/tgt
Dalton Kincaid◄
0.58 EPA/tgt
Hunter Henry
0.36 EPA/tgt
Good◄
7.5% sack rate
Average
8.7% sack rate
Deone Walker◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Cory Durden
0.2 disrupt/gm
T.J. Sanders
no 2025 data
Christian Barmore
no 2025 data
Greg Rousseau◄
0.7 impact/gm
Dre'Mont Jones
0.6 impact/gm
Dee Alford◄
0.8 cover/gm
Carlton Davis III
0.4 cover/gm
Cole Bishop◄
0.7 cover/gm
Craig Woodson
0.3 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
JAX
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
IND
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Trevor Lawrence
0.05 EPA/att
Daniel Jones◄
0.11 EPA/att
Bhayshul Tuten
-0.03 EPA/tch
Jonathan Taylor◄
0.07 EPA/tch
Brian Thomas Jr.
0.14 EPA/tgt
Alec Pierce◄
0.49 EPA/tgt
Brenton Strange◄
0.40 EPA/tgt
Tyler Warren
0.12 EPA/tgt
Bad
6.8% sack rate
Good◄
5.0% sack rate
DaVon Hamilton
0.2 disrupt/gm
Grover Stewart◄
0.3 disrupt/gm
Josh Hines-Allen◄
1.0 press/gm
Laiatu Latu
0.9 press/gm
Foyesade Oluokun◄
0.9 impact/gm
Akeem Davis-Gaither
0.5 impact/gm
Montaric Brown◄
0.7 cover/gm
Sauce Gardner
0.5 cover/gm
Antonio Johnson◄
0.8 cover/gm
Cam Bynum
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
WAS
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
DAL
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Jayden Daniels
-0.01 EPA/att
Dak Prescott◄
0.15 EPA/att
Jacory Croskey-Merritt◄
-0.02 EPA/tch
Javonte Williams
-0.03 EPA/tch
Terry McLaurin◄
0.36 EPA/tgt
CeeDee Lamb
0.20 EPA/tgt
Chig Okonkwo
0.13 EPA/tgt
Jake Ferguson◄
0.16 EPA/tgt
Good
7.3% sack rate
Elite◄
4.7% sack rate
Daron Payne◄
0.6 disrupt/gm
Otito Ogbonnia
0.3 disrupt/gm
Tim Settle
no 2025 data
Quinnen Williams
no 2025 data
Odafe Oweh
0.7 impact/gm
Dee Winters◄
0.8 impact/gm
Mike Sainristil◄
0.7 cover/gm
Cobie Durant
0.5 cover/gm
Nick Cross◄
0.5 cover/gm
Malik Hooker
0.2 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
MIN
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
DET
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
Kyler Murray
0.02 EPA/att
Jared Goff◄
0.14 EPA/att
Aaron Jones Sr.
-0.04 EPA/tch
Jahmyr Gibbs◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Justin Jefferson
-0.08 EPA/tgt
Amon-Ra St. Brown◄
0.28 EPA/tgt
T.J. Hockenson
0.17 EPA/tgt
Sam LaPorta◄
0.54 EPA/tgt
Bad
11.0% sack rate
Good◄
6.3% sack rate
Caleb Banks◄
no 2025 data
Tyleik Williams
0.2 disrupt/gm
Levi Drake Rodriguez
no 2025 data
Aidan Hutchinson◄
1.3 press/gm
Eric Wilson◄
1.1 impact/gm
Derrick Barnes
0.7 impact/gm
Byron Murphy Jr.
0.4 cover/gm
D.J. Reed◄
0.5 cover/gm
Joshua Metellus◄
0.6 cover/gm
Chuck Clark
0.3 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
KC
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
DEN
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
Patrick Mahomes◄
0.10 EPA/att
Bo Nix
0.08 EPA/att
Kenneth Walker III
-0.02 EPA/tch
J.K. Dobbins◄
-0.00 EPA/tch
Rashee Rice
0.15 EPA/tgt
Jaylen Waddle◄
0.27 EPA/tgt
Travis Kelce◄
0.32 EPA/tgt
Evan Engram
0.04 EPA/tgt
Average
7.4% sack rate
Elite◄
3.6% sack rate
Khyiris Tonga
0.1 disrupt/gm
D.J. Jones◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
George Karlaftis
0.8 press/gm
Zach Allen◄
1.1 press/gm
Drue Tranquill
0.7 impact/gm
Nik Bonitto◄
1.2 impact/gm
L'Jarius Sneed
0.2 cover/gm
Riley Moss◄
0.8 cover/gm
Alohi Gilman
0.5 cover/gm
Talanoa Hufanga◄
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
LAC
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
LV
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Justin Herbert◄
0.02 EPA/att
Kirk Cousins
-0.00 EPA/att
Omarion Hampton◄
-0.01 EPA/tch
Ashton Jeanty
-0.20 EPA/tch
Ladd McConkey
0.05 EPA/tgt
Tre Tucker◄
0.18 EPA/tgt
Charlie Kolar
0.15 EPA/tgt
Brock Bowers◄
0.22 EPA/tgt
Bad◄
9.5% sack rate
Bad
11.1% sack rate
Dalvin Tomlinson◄
no 2025 data
Adam Butler
0.3 disrupt/gm
Teair Tart
no 2025 data
Jonah Laulu
no 2025 data
Daiyan Henley
0.8 impact/gm
Quay Walker◄
0.9 impact/gm
Cam Hart◄
0.5 cover/gm
Eric Stokes
0.2 cover/gm
Derwin James Jr.◄
0.7 cover/gm
Jeremy Chinn
0.3 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
SEA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
LA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Sam Darnold
0.11 EPA/att
Matthew Stafford◄
0.19 EPA/att
Brady Russell
-0.01 EPA/tch
Kyren Williams◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Jaxon Smith-Njigba
0.47 EPA/tgt
Puka Nacua◄
0.59 EPA/tgt
AJ Barner◄
0.32 EPA/tgt
Colby Parkinson
0.17 EPA/tgt
Average
5.3% sack rate
Elite◄
3.7% sack rate
Byron Murphy II◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Poona Ford
0.3 disrupt/gm
Leonard Williams◄
0.8 press/gm
Kobie Turner
0.6 press/gm
DeMarcus Lawrence
0.8 impact/gm
Byron Young◄
1.1 impact/gm
Josh Jobe◄
0.6 cover/gm
Jaylen Watson
0.4 cover/gm
Ty Okada
0.5 cover/gm
Kamren Kinchens◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
SF
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
ARI
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Brock Purdy◄
0.13 EPA/att
Jacoby Brissett
-0.00 EPA/att
Christian McCaffrey◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Jeremiyah Love
no 2025 data
Mike Evans
0.06 EPA/tgt
Marvin Harrison Jr.◄
0.31 EPA/tgt
George Kittle◄
0.53 EPA/tgt
Trey McBride
0.39 EPA/tgt
Average◄
4.5% sack rate
Bad
8.3% sack rate
Osa Odighizuwa◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Roy Lopez
0.4 disrupt/gm
Keion White
0.2 press/gm
Josh Sweat◄
no 2025 data
Luke Gifford
0.1 impact/gm
Jack Gibbens◄
0.7 impact/gm
Deommodore Lenoir
0.3 cover/gm
Denzel Burke◄
0.7 cover/gm
Ji'Ayir Brown◄
0.5 cover/gm
Budda Baker
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
MIA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
NYJ
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Malik Willis◄
0.13 EPA/att
Geno Smith
-0.12 EPA/att
De'Von Achane◄
0.01 EPA/tch
Breece Hall
-0.04 EPA/tch
Malik Washington
-0.10 EPA/tgt
Garrett Wilson◄
-0.02 EPA/tgt
Greg Dulcich◄
0.34 EPA/tgt
Mason Taylor
0.12 EPA/tgt
Good◄
7.4% sack rate
Bad
10.8% sack rate
Jordan Phillips
0.2 disrupt/gm
Harrison Phillips◄
0.2 disrupt/gm
Chop Robinson
no 2025 data
Will McDonald IV◄
0.9 press/gm
Jordyn Brooks◄
1.2 impact/gm
Jamien Sherwood
1.0 impact/gm
Jason Marshall Jr.
0.3 cover/gm
Nahshon Wright◄
0.8 cover/gm
Dante Trader Jr.
0.2 cover/gm
Dane Belton◄
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
CIN
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
PIT
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Joe Burrow◄
0.08 EPA/att
Aaron Rodgers
0.04 EPA/att
Chase Brown
-0.04 EPA/tch
Jaylen Warren◄
0.03 EPA/tch
Ja'Marr Chase
0.19 EPA/tgt
DK Metcalf◄
0.26 EPA/tgt
Mike Gesicki
0.07 EPA/tgt
Darnell Washington◄
0.24 EPA/tgt
Good
5.3% sack rate
Good◄
5.3% sack rate
Dexter Lawrence II
0.3 disrupt/gm
Keeanu Benton◄
0.6 disrupt/gm
Boye Mafe
0.2 press/gm
Cameron Heyward◄
0.4 press/gm
Demetrius Knight Jr.◄
0.8 impact/gm
Payton Wilson
0.7 impact/gm
Dax Hill◄
0.5 cover/gm
Jalen Ramsey
0.4 cover/gm
Jordan Battle◄
0.7 cover/gm
Jaquan Brisker
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
HOU
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
TEN
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
C.J. Stroud◄
0.08 EPA/att
Cam Ward
-0.15 EPA/att
David Montgomery◄
0.02 EPA/tch
Tony Pollard
-0.10 EPA/tch
Nico Collins◄
0.26 EPA/tgt
Carnell Tate
no 2025 data
Dalton Schultz◄
0.29 EPA/tgt
Gunnar Helm
0.05 EPA/tgt
Average◄
5.1% sack rate
Bad
8.9% sack rate
Tommy Togiai
0.4 disrupt/gm
Jeffery Simmons◄
1.5 disrupt/gm
Will Anderson Jr.◄
1.2 press/gm
Jermaine Johnson II
0.3 press/gm
Henry To'oTo'o◄
0.8 impact/gm
Cody Barton
0.7 impact/gm
Kamari Lassiter◄
1.0 cover/gm
Alontae Taylor
0.6 cover/gm
Reed Blankenship
0.4 cover/gm
Amani Hooker◄
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
Winner accuracy by grade, 1070 games. A high grade means a clearer mismatch — but the books know it too, so higher accuracy here does not mean a betting edge.
All validated trends · out-of-sample (2020–2026)
NFL · Members
The full board, confidence ratings, and daily plays — plus the complete track record. New plays every morning. The track record and featured picks above stay free.
NFL Pass
$9.99/mo
Just NFL
All-AccessBest value
$29.99/mo
All 5 sports
Secure checkout via Stripe. Cancel anytime. 21+. Bet responsibly.
