We simulate every NFL game on opponent-adjusted net EPA — offense and defense on both sides set the projected margin, scoring rates set the total — then post only the handful we have the most conviction in. Every posted game gets a grade and a projected score, and every one is graded against the real result.
Graded games
75.9%
the games we post · B+ or better
Full slate
62.5%
every game · n=1070
Market
67.4%
closing line · it’s better
Margin error
10.5
points, full slate
Accuracy is measured against the actual final score — did we pick the winner, and how many points off was the margin — not against the betting line. Across 2019–2025 the simulator calls 62.5% of all games straight up. The market’s closing line calls 67.4% — the NFL is the most efficient market in sports, so the full slate is worse than the market and we say so. It is a prediction tool, not a betting edge: it does not beat the spread. Analysis and entertainment, 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.
Board went 2-0 · full slate 12-4 straight up
Our 2 highest-conviction calls out of 16 games this week. We post at most 6, and nothing below a B+ — a thin week posts fewer rather than padding the board.
DAL
PHI
18
29
Offense
PHI
Defense
PHI
Called it ✓
DAL
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
Every game we simulated this week, highest conviction first. The board above is only the ones that cleared B+— here’s the whole week so nothing’s hidden.
DAL
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
PHI
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · four-man rush
Dak Prescott◄
0.15 EPA/att
The grade is our conviction in our own call — how big the projected margin is. Here is how each grade actually performed across 2019–2025:
Net EPA — opponent-adjusted expected points added on offense and defense, both sides of the ball — sets the projected margin. Scoring rates set the total. Ratings are computed as of that week’s kickoff, using only games already played, so nothing is graded with hindsight. Early in the season a team carries its prior-year rating until it has enough games to stand on its own.
It does not beat the spread. The NFL market is the sharpest in sports. We publish this because the projection and the matchup are interesting and we grade ourselves honestly against the real score — not because it prints money.
Also on our board
Separate from the simulator: situational trends mined from 1999–2026 seasons and validated out-of-sample. Only the ones that actually hold up.
The Sizzlin NFL Simulator is analysis and entertainment — not betting advice or a guaranteed outcome. 21+. 1-800-GAMBLER.
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
PHI
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · four-man rush
Dak Prescott◄
0.15 EPA/att
Jalen Hurts
0.05 EPA/att
Javonte Williams◄
-0.03 EPA/tch
Saquon Barkley
-0.08 EPA/tch
CeeDee Lamb
0.20 EPA/tgt
DeVonta Smith◄
0.38 EPA/tgt
Jake Ferguson
0.16 EPA/tgt
Dallas Goedert◄
0.36 EPA/tgt
Elite◄
4.7% sack rate
Average
6.6% sack rate
Otito Ogbonnia
0.3 disrupt/gm
Average◄
no data
Quinnen Williams
no 2025 data
Jalen Carter
no 2025 data
Dee Winters
0.8 impact/gm
Zack Baun◄
1.0 impact/gm
Cobie Durant
0.5 cover/gm
Quinyon Mitchell◄
0.7 cover/gm
Malik Hooker
0.2 cover/gm
Andrew Mukuba◄
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
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Jalen Hurts
0.05 EPA/att
Javonte Williams◄
-0.03 EPA/tch
Saquon Barkley
-0.08 EPA/tch
CeeDee Lamb
0.20 EPA/tgt
DeVonta Smith◄
0.38 EPA/tgt
Jake Ferguson
0.16 EPA/tgt
Dallas Goedert◄
0.36 EPA/tgt
Elite◄
4.7% sack rate
Average
6.6% sack rate
Otito Ogbonnia
0.3 disrupt/gm
Average◄
no data
Quinnen Williams
no 2025 data
Jalen Carter
no 2025 data
Dee Winters
0.8 impact/gm
Zack Baun◄
1.0 impact/gm
Cobie Durant
0.5 cover/gm
Quinyon Mitchell◄
0.7 cover/gm
Malik Hooker
0.2 cover/gm
Andrew Mukuba◄
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
CAR
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
TB
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Bryce Young
-0.03 EPA/att
Baker Mayfield◄
0.00 EPA/att
Chuba Hubbard◄
-0.05 EPA/tch
Bucky Irving
-0.10 EPA/tch
Tetairoa McMillan◄
0.17 EPA/tgt
Emeka Egbuka
0.05 EPA/tgt
Tommy Tremble◄
0.15 EPA/tgt
Cade Otton
0.03 EPA/tgt
Average◄
6.4% sack rate
Average
6.4% sack rate
Lee Hunter
no 2025 data
Vita Vea◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Derrick Brown
no 2025 data
Calijah Kancey
no 2025 data
Bobby Okereke
0.7 impact/gm
Yaya Diaby◄
0.9 impact/gm
Mike Jackson◄
1.0 cover/gm
Jacob Parrish
0.4 cover/gm
Nick Scott
0.4 cover/gm
Antoine Winfield Jr.◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
NYJ
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
BUF
OFF Run-heavy · under-center
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Geno Smith
-0.12 EPA/att
Josh Allen◄
0.11 EPA/att
Breece Hall
-0.04 EPA/tch
James Cook III◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Garrett Wilson
-0.02 EPA/tgt
DJ Moore◄
0.12 EPA/tgt
Mason Taylor
0.12 EPA/tgt
Dalton Kincaid◄
0.58 EPA/tgt
Bad
10.8% sack rate
Good◄
7.5% sack rate
Harrison Phillips
0.2 disrupt/gm
Deone Walker◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Will McDonald IV◄
0.9 press/gm
T.J. Sanders
no 2025 data
Jamien Sherwood◄
1.0 impact/gm
Greg Rousseau
0.7 impact/gm
Nahshon Wright◄
0.8 cover/gm
Dee Alford
0.8 cover/gm
Dane Belton
0.5 cover/gm
Cole Bishop◄
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
ATL
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
WAS
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Michael Penix Jr.◄
0.01 EPA/att
Jayden Daniels
-0.01 EPA/att
Bijan Robinson◄
0.03 EPA/tch
Jacory Croskey-Merritt
-0.02 EPA/tch
Drake London
0.18 EPA/tgt
Terry McLaurin◄
0.36 EPA/tgt
Kyle Pitts Sr.◄
0.18 EPA/tgt
Chig Okonkwo
0.13 EPA/tgt
Elite◄
4.6% sack rate
Good
7.3% sack rate
Gervon Dexter Sr.◄
0.7 disrupt/gm
Daron Payne
0.6 disrupt/gm
Brandon Dorlus
0.8 press/gm
Tim Settle◄
no 2025 data
Divine Deablo◄
0.7 impact/gm
Odafe Oweh
0.7 impact/gm
A.J. Terrell Jr.
0.5 cover/gm
Mike Sainristil◄
0.7 cover/gm
Jessie Bates III◄
0.6 cover/gm
Nick Cross
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
LV
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
NO
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Kirk Cousins
-0.00 EPA/att
Tyler Shough◄
0.00 EPA/att
Ashton Jeanty
-0.20 EPA/tch
Travis Etienne Jr.◄
-0.03 EPA/tch
Tre Tucker
0.18 EPA/tgt
Chris Olave◄
0.19 EPA/tgt
Brock Bowers
0.22 EPA/tgt
Juwan Johnson◄
0.29 EPA/tgt
Bad
11.1% sack rate
Bad◄
7.7% sack rate
Adam Butler◄
0.3 disrupt/gm
Davon Godchaux
0.1 disrupt/gm
Jonah Laulu◄
no 2025 data
Colby Wooden
0.2 press/gm
Quay Walker
0.9 impact/gm
Kaden Elliss◄
1.0 impact/gm
Eric Stokes
0.2 cover/gm
Kool-Aid McKinstry◄
0.9 cover/gm
Jeremy Chinn
0.3 cover/gm
Justin Reid◄
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
GB
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
MIN
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Jordan Love◄
0.18 EPA/att
Kyler Murray
0.02 EPA/att
MarShawn Lloyd◄
no 2025 data
Aaron Jones Sr.
-0.04 EPA/tch
Christian Watson◄
0.38 EPA/tgt
Justin Jefferson
-0.08 EPA/tgt
Tucker Kraft◄
0.62 EPA/tgt
T.J. Hockenson
0.17 EPA/tgt
Average◄
5.6% sack rate
Bad
11.0% sack rate
Javon Hargrave◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Caleb Banks
no 2025 data
Karl Brooks
no 2025 data
Levi Drake Rodriguez
no 2025 data
Edgerrin Cooper
0.6 impact/gm
Eric Wilson◄
1.1 impact/gm
Keisean Nixon◄
0.7 cover/gm
Byron Murphy Jr.
0.4 cover/gm
Evan Williams◄
0.6 cover/gm
Joshua Metellus
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
ARI
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
LA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Jacoby Brissett
-0.00 EPA/att
Matthew Stafford◄
0.19 EPA/att
Jeremiyah Love
no 2025 data
Kyren Williams◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Marvin Harrison Jr.
0.31 EPA/tgt
Puka Nacua◄
0.59 EPA/tgt
Trey McBride◄
0.39 EPA/tgt
Colby Parkinson
0.17 EPA/tgt
Bad
8.3% sack rate
Elite◄
3.7% sack rate
Roy Lopez◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Poona Ford
0.3 disrupt/gm
Josh Sweat◄
no 2025 data
Kobie Turner
0.6 press/gm
Jack Gibbens
0.7 impact/gm
Byron Young◄
1.1 impact/gm
Denzel Burke◄
0.7 cover/gm
Jaylen Watson
0.4 cover/gm
Budda Baker
0.5 cover/gm
Kamren Kinchens◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
TEN
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
JAX
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Cam Ward
-0.15 EPA/att
Trevor Lawrence◄
0.05 EPA/att
Tony Pollard
-0.10 EPA/tch
Bhayshul Tuten◄
-0.03 EPA/tch
Carnell Tate◄
no 2025 data
Brian Thomas Jr.
0.14 EPA/tgt
Gunnar Helm
0.05 EPA/tgt
Brenton Strange◄
0.40 EPA/tgt
Bad
8.9% sack rate
Bad◄
6.8% sack rate
Jeffery Simmons◄
1.5 disrupt/gm
DaVon Hamilton
0.2 disrupt/gm
Jermaine Johnson II
0.3 press/gm
Josh Hines-Allen◄
1.0 press/gm
Cody Barton
0.7 impact/gm
Foyesade Oluokun◄
0.9 impact/gm
Alontae Taylor
0.6 cover/gm
Montaric Brown◄
0.7 cover/gm
Amani Hooker
0.5 cover/gm
Antonio Johnson◄
0.8 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
DEN
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
CIN
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Bo Nix
0.08 EPA/att
Joe Burrow◄
0.08 EPA/att
J.K. Dobbins◄
-0.00 EPA/tch
Chase Brown
-0.04 EPA/tch
Jaylen Waddle◄
0.27 EPA/tgt
Ja'Marr Chase
0.19 EPA/tgt
Evan Engram
0.04 EPA/tgt
Mike Gesicki◄
0.07 EPA/tgt
Elite◄
3.6% sack rate
Good
5.3% sack rate
D.J. Jones◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Dexter Lawrence II
0.3 disrupt/gm
Zach Allen◄
1.1 press/gm
Boye Mafe
0.2 press/gm
Nik Bonitto◄
1.2 impact/gm
Demetrius Knight Jr.
0.8 impact/gm
Riley Moss◄
0.8 cover/gm
Dax Hill
0.5 cover/gm
Talanoa Hufanga
0.7 cover/gm
Jordan Battle◄
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
BAL
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
HOU
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Lamar Jackson
0.04 EPA/att
C.J. Stroud◄
0.08 EPA/att
Derrick Henry◄
0.02 EPA/tch
David Montgomery
0.02 EPA/tch
Zay Flowers◄
0.32 EPA/tgt
Nico Collins
0.26 EPA/tgt
Mark Andrews
0.02 EPA/tgt
Dalton Schultz◄
0.29 EPA/tgt
Good◄
9.6% sack rate
Average
5.1% sack rate
Travis Jones◄
0.7 disrupt/gm
Tommy Togiai
0.4 disrupt/gm
Calais Campbell
0.7 press/gm
Will Anderson Jr.◄
1.2 press/gm
Roquan Smith
0.7 impact/gm
Henry To'oTo'o◄
0.8 impact/gm
Nate Wiggins
0.7 cover/gm
Kamari Lassiter◄
1.0 cover/gm
Malaki Starks◄
0.5 cover/gm
Reed Blankenship
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
IND
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
NYG
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Daniel Jones◄
0.11 EPA/att
Jaxson Dart
0.01 EPA/att
Jonathan Taylor◄
0.07 EPA/tch
Cam Skattebo
-0.05 EPA/tch
Alec Pierce◄
0.49 EPA/tgt
Malik Nabers
0.04 EPA/tgt
Tyler Warren◄
0.12 EPA/tgt
Isaiah Likely
0.10 EPA/tgt
Good◄
5.0% sack rate
Bad
8.4% sack rate
Grover Stewart◄
0.3 disrupt/gm
DJ Reader
0.1 disrupt/gm
Laiatu Latu◄
0.9 press/gm
Shelby Harris
0.2 press/gm
Akeem Davis-Gaither
0.5 impact/gm
Brian Burns◄
1.8 impact/gm
Sauce Gardner
0.5 cover/gm
Dru Phillips◄
0.6 cover/gm
Cam Bynum◄
0.7 cover/gm
Tyler Nubin
0.3 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
LAC
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
NE
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Justin Herbert
0.02 EPA/att
Drake Maye◄
0.25 EPA/att
Omarion Hampton◄
-0.01 EPA/tch
Rhamondre Stevenson
-0.02 EPA/tch
Ladd McConkey
0.05 EPA/tgt
Romeo Doubs◄
0.30 EPA/tgt
Charlie Kolar
0.15 EPA/tgt
Hunter Henry◄
0.36 EPA/tgt
Bad
9.5% sack rate
Average◄
8.7% sack rate
Dalvin Tomlinson◄
no 2025 data
Cory Durden
0.2 disrupt/gm
Teair Tart
no 2025 data
Christian Barmore
no 2025 data
Daiyan Henley◄
0.8 impact/gm
Dre'Mont Jones
0.6 impact/gm
Cam Hart◄
0.5 cover/gm
Carlton Davis III
0.4 cover/gm
Derwin James Jr.◄
0.7 cover/gm
Craig Woodson
0.3 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
KC
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
PIT
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Patrick Mahomes◄
0.10 EPA/att
Aaron Rodgers
0.04 EPA/att
Kenneth Walker III
-0.02 EPA/tch
Jaylen Warren◄
0.03 EPA/tch
Rashee Rice
0.15 EPA/tgt
DK Metcalf◄
0.26 EPA/tgt
Travis Kelce◄
0.32 EPA/tgt
Darnell Washington
0.24 EPA/tgt
Average
7.4% sack rate
Good◄
5.3% sack rate
Khyiris Tonga
0.1 disrupt/gm
Keeanu Benton◄
0.6 disrupt/gm
George Karlaftis◄
0.8 press/gm
Cameron Heyward
0.4 press/gm
Drue Tranquill
0.7 impact/gm
Payton Wilson◄
0.7 impact/gm
L'Jarius Sneed
0.2 cover/gm
Jalen Ramsey◄
0.4 cover/gm
Alohi Gilman
0.5 cover/gm
Jaquan Brisker◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
DET
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
SF
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Jared Goff◄
0.14 EPA/att
Brock Purdy
0.13 EPA/att
Jahmyr Gibbs◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Christian McCaffrey
0.04 EPA/tch
Amon-Ra St. Brown◄
0.28 EPA/tgt
Mike Evans
0.06 EPA/tgt
Sam LaPorta◄
0.54 EPA/tgt
George Kittle
0.53 EPA/tgt
Good◄
6.3% sack rate
Average
4.5% sack rate
Tyleik Williams
0.2 disrupt/gm
Osa Odighizuwa◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Aidan Hutchinson◄
1.3 press/gm
Keion White
0.2 press/gm
Derrick Barnes◄
0.7 impact/gm
Luke Gifford
0.1 impact/gm
D.J. Reed◄
0.5 cover/gm
Deommodore Lenoir
0.3 cover/gm
Chuck Clark
0.3 cover/gm
Ji'Ayir Brown◄
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
SEA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
CHI
OFF Balanced · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
Sam Darnold◄
0.11 EPA/att
Caleb Williams
0.06 EPA/att
Brady Russell
-0.01 EPA/tch
D'Andre Swift◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Jaxon Smith-Njigba◄
0.47 EPA/tgt
Rome Odunze
0.18 EPA/tgt
AJ Barner
0.32 EPA/tgt
Colston Loveland◄
0.47 EPA/tgt
Average
5.3% sack rate
Elite◄
4.0% sack rate
Byron Murphy II◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Grady Jarrett
0.3 disrupt/gm
Leonard Williams
0.8 press/gm
Montez Sweat◄
0.9 press/gm
DeMarcus Lawrence
0.8 impact/gm
Devin Bush◄
0.9 impact/gm
Josh Jobe◄
0.6 cover/gm
Cam Lewis
0.2 cover/gm
Ty Okada◄
0.5 cover/gm
Xavier Woods
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
MIA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
CLE
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Malik Willis◄
0.13 EPA/att
Deshaun Watson
no 2025 data
De'Von Achane◄
0.01 EPA/tch
Quinshon Judkins
-0.10 EPA/tch
Malik Washington◄
-0.10 EPA/tgt
Jerry Jeudy
-0.24 EPA/tgt
Greg Dulcich◄
0.34 EPA/tgt
Harold Fannin Jr.
0.01 EPA/tgt
Good◄
7.4% sack rate
Bad
8.4% sack rate
Jordan Phillips
0.2 disrupt/gm
Mason Graham◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Chop Robinson
no 2025 data
Jared Verse◄
0.9 press/gm
Jordyn Brooks◄
1.2 impact/gm
Carson Schwesinger
0.9 impact/gm
Jason Marshall Jr.
0.3 cover/gm
Tyson Campbell◄
0.7 cover/gm
Dante Trader Jr.
0.2 cover/gm
Grant Delpit◄
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
Winner accuracy by grade, 1070 games. A high grade means a clearer mismatch — but the books know it too, so higher accuracy here does not mean a betting edge.
All validated trends · out-of-sample (2020–2026)
NFL · Members
The full board, confidence ratings, and daily plays — plus the complete track record. New plays every morning. The track record and featured picks above stay free.
NFL Pass
$9.99/mo
Just NFL
All-AccessBest value
$29.99/mo
All 5 sports
Secure checkout via Stripe. Cancel anytime. 21+. Bet responsibly.
