We simulate every NFL game on opponent-adjusted net EPA — offense and defense on both sides set the projected margin, scoring rates set the total — then post only the handful we have the most conviction in. Every posted game gets a grade and a projected score, and every one is graded against the real result.
Graded games
75.9%
the games we post · B+ or better
Full slate
62.5%
every game · n=1070
Market
67.4%
closing line · it’s better
Margin error
10.5
points, full slate
Accuracy is measured against the actual final score — did we pick the winner, and how many points off was the margin — not against the betting line. Across 2019–2025 the simulator calls 62.5% of all games straight up. The market’s closing line calls 67.4% — the NFL is the most efficient market in sports, so the full slate is worse than the market and we say so. It is a prediction tool, not a betting edge: it does not beat the spread. Analysis and entertainment, 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.
Board went 1-0 · full slate 13-3 straight up
Our 1 highest-conviction calls out of 16 games this week. We post at most 6, and nothing below a B+ — a thin week posts fewer rather than padding the board.
NE
BUF
19
29
Offense
BUF
Defense
BUF
Called it ✓
NE
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
BUF
Run-heavy · under-center
Every game we simulated this week, highest conviction first. The board above is only the ones that cleared B+— here’s the whole week so nothing’s hidden.
NE
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
BUF
OFF Run-heavy · under-center
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Drake Maye◄
0.25 EPA/att
The grade is our conviction in our own call — how big the projected margin is. Here is how each grade actually performed across 2019–2025:
Net EPA — opponent-adjusted expected points added on offense and defense, both sides of the ball — sets the projected margin. Scoring rates set the total. Ratings are computed as of that week’s kickoff, using only games already played, so nothing is graded with hindsight. Early in the season a team carries its prior-year rating until it has enough games to stand on its own.
It does not beat the spread. The NFL market is the sharpest in sports. We publish this because the projection and the matchup are interesting and we grade ourselves honestly against the real score — not because it prints money.
Also on our board
Separate from the simulator: situational trends mined from 1999–2026 seasons and validated out-of-sample. Only the ones that actually hold up.
The Sizzlin NFL Simulator is analysis and entertainment — not betting advice or a guaranteed outcome. 21+. 1-800-GAMBLER.
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Drake Maye◄
0.25 EPA/att
Josh Allen
0.11 EPA/att
Rhamondre Stevenson
-0.02 EPA/tch
James Cook III◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Romeo Doubs◄
0.30 EPA/tgt
DJ Moore
0.12 EPA/tgt
Hunter Henry
0.36 EPA/tgt
Dalton Kincaid◄
0.58 EPA/tgt
Average
8.7% sack rate
Good◄
7.5% sack rate
Cory Durden
0.2 disrupt/gm
Deone Walker◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Christian Barmore
no 2025 data
T.J. Sanders
no 2025 data
Dre'Mont Jones
0.6 impact/gm
Greg Rousseau◄
0.7 impact/gm
Carlton Davis III
0.4 cover/gm
Dee Alford◄
0.8 cover/gm
Craig Woodson
0.3 cover/gm
Cole Bishop◄
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
Josh Allen
0.11 EPA/att
Rhamondre Stevenson
-0.02 EPA/tch
James Cook III◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Romeo Doubs◄
0.30 EPA/tgt
DJ Moore
0.12 EPA/tgt
Hunter Henry
0.36 EPA/tgt
Dalton Kincaid◄
0.58 EPA/tgt
Average
8.7% sack rate
Good◄
7.5% sack rate
Cory Durden
0.2 disrupt/gm
Deone Walker◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Christian Barmore
no 2025 data
T.J. Sanders
no 2025 data
Dre'Mont Jones
0.6 impact/gm
Greg Rousseau◄
0.7 impact/gm
Carlton Davis III
0.4 cover/gm
Dee Alford◄
0.8 cover/gm
Craig Woodson
0.3 cover/gm
Cole Bishop◄
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
CLE
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
CIN
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Deshaun Watson
no 2025 data
Joe Burrow◄
0.08 EPA/att
Quinshon Judkins
-0.10 EPA/tch
Chase Brown◄
-0.04 EPA/tch
Jerry Jeudy
-0.24 EPA/tgt
Ja'Marr Chase◄
0.19 EPA/tgt
Harold Fannin Jr.
0.01 EPA/tgt
Mike Gesicki◄
0.07 EPA/tgt
Bad
8.4% sack rate
Good◄
5.3% sack rate
Mason Graham◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Dexter Lawrence II
0.3 disrupt/gm
Jared Verse◄
0.9 press/gm
Boye Mafe
0.2 press/gm
Carson Schwesinger◄
0.9 impact/gm
Demetrius Knight Jr.
0.8 impact/gm
Tyson Campbell◄
0.7 cover/gm
Dax Hill
0.5 cover/gm
Grant Delpit
0.4 cover/gm
Jordan Battle◄
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
PIT
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
BAL
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Aaron Rodgers◄
0.04 EPA/att
Lamar Jackson
0.04 EPA/att
Jaylen Warren◄
0.03 EPA/tch
Derrick Henry
0.02 EPA/tch
DK Metcalf
0.26 EPA/tgt
Zay Flowers◄
0.32 EPA/tgt
Darnell Washington◄
0.24 EPA/tgt
Mark Andrews
0.02 EPA/tgt
Good
5.3% sack rate
Good◄
9.6% sack rate
Keeanu Benton
0.6 disrupt/gm
Travis Jones◄
0.7 disrupt/gm
Cameron Heyward
0.4 press/gm
Calais Campbell◄
0.7 press/gm
Payton Wilson◄
0.7 impact/gm
Roquan Smith
0.7 impact/gm
Jalen Ramsey
0.4 cover/gm
Nate Wiggins◄
0.7 cover/gm
Jaquan Brisker◄
0.6 cover/gm
Malaki Starks
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
NYG
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
ATL
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Jaxson Dart
0.01 EPA/att
Michael Penix Jr.◄
0.01 EPA/att
Cam Skattebo
-0.05 EPA/tch
Bijan Robinson◄
0.03 EPA/tch
Malik Nabers
0.04 EPA/tgt
Drake London◄
0.18 EPA/tgt
Isaiah Likely
0.10 EPA/tgt
Kyle Pitts Sr.◄
0.18 EPA/tgt
Bad
8.4% sack rate
Elite◄
4.6% sack rate
DJ Reader
0.1 disrupt/gm
Gervon Dexter Sr.◄
0.7 disrupt/gm
Shelby Harris
0.2 press/gm
Brandon Dorlus◄
0.8 press/gm
Brian Burns◄
1.8 impact/gm
Divine Deablo
0.7 impact/gm
Dru Phillips◄
0.6 cover/gm
A.J. Terrell Jr.
0.5 cover/gm
Tyler Nubin
0.3 cover/gm
Jessie Bates III◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
NO
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
GB
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Tyler Shough
0.00 EPA/att
Jordan Love◄
0.18 EPA/att
Travis Etienne Jr.
-0.03 EPA/tch
MarShawn Lloyd◄
no 2025 data
Chris Olave
0.19 EPA/tgt
Christian Watson◄
0.38 EPA/tgt
Juwan Johnson
0.29 EPA/tgt
Tucker Kraft◄
0.62 EPA/tgt
Bad
7.7% sack rate
Average◄
5.6% sack rate
Davon Godchaux
0.1 disrupt/gm
Javon Hargrave◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Colby Wooden
0.2 press/gm
Karl Brooks◄
no 2025 data
Kaden Elliss◄
1.0 impact/gm
Edgerrin Cooper
0.6 impact/gm
Kool-Aid McKinstry◄
0.9 cover/gm
Keisean Nixon
0.7 cover/gm
Justin Reid
0.5 cover/gm
Evan Williams◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
DET
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
CHI
OFF Balanced · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
Jared Goff◄
0.14 EPA/att
Caleb Williams
0.06 EPA/att
Jahmyr Gibbs
0.04 EPA/tch
D'Andre Swift◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Amon-Ra St. Brown◄
0.28 EPA/tgt
Rome Odunze
0.18 EPA/tgt
Sam LaPorta◄
0.54 EPA/tgt
Colston Loveland
0.47 EPA/tgt
Good
6.3% sack rate
Elite◄
4.0% sack rate
Tyleik Williams
0.2 disrupt/gm
Grady Jarrett◄
0.3 disrupt/gm
Aidan Hutchinson◄
1.3 press/gm
Montez Sweat
0.9 press/gm
Derrick Barnes
0.7 impact/gm
Devin Bush◄
0.9 impact/gm
D.J. Reed◄
0.5 cover/gm
Cam Lewis
0.2 cover/gm
Chuck Clark
0.3 cover/gm
Xavier Woods◄
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
TEN
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
IND
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Cam Ward
-0.15 EPA/att
Daniel Jones◄
0.11 EPA/att
Tony Pollard
-0.10 EPA/tch
Jonathan Taylor◄
0.07 EPA/tch
Carnell Tate
no 2025 data
Alec Pierce◄
0.49 EPA/tgt
Gunnar Helm
0.05 EPA/tgt
Tyler Warren◄
0.12 EPA/tgt
Bad
8.9% sack rate
Good◄
5.0% sack rate
Jeffery Simmons◄
1.5 disrupt/gm
Grover Stewart
0.3 disrupt/gm
Jermaine Johnson II
0.3 press/gm
Laiatu Latu◄
0.9 press/gm
Cody Barton◄
0.7 impact/gm
Akeem Davis-Gaither
0.5 impact/gm
Alontae Taylor◄
0.6 cover/gm
Sauce Gardner
0.5 cover/gm
Amani Hooker
0.5 cover/gm
Cam Bynum◄
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
HOU
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
KC
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
C.J. Stroud
0.08 EPA/att
Patrick Mahomes◄
0.10 EPA/att
David Montgomery◄
0.02 EPA/tch
Kenneth Walker III
-0.02 EPA/tch
Nico Collins◄
0.26 EPA/tgt
Rashee Rice
0.15 EPA/tgt
Dalton Schultz
0.29 EPA/tgt
Travis Kelce◄
0.32 EPA/tgt
Average◄
5.1% sack rate
Average
7.4% sack rate
Tommy Togiai◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Khyiris Tonga
0.1 disrupt/gm
Will Anderson Jr.◄
1.2 press/gm
George Karlaftis
0.8 press/gm
Henry To'oTo'o◄
0.8 impact/gm
Drue Tranquill
0.7 impact/gm
Kamari Lassiter◄
1.0 cover/gm
L'Jarius Sneed
0.2 cover/gm
Reed Blankenship
0.4 cover/gm
Alohi Gilman◄
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
ARI
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
CAR
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Jacoby Brissett◄
-0.00 EPA/att
Bryce Young
-0.03 EPA/att
Jeremiyah Love◄
no 2025 data
Chuba Hubbard
-0.05 EPA/tch
Marvin Harrison Jr.◄
0.31 EPA/tgt
Tetairoa McMillan
0.17 EPA/tgt
Trey McBride◄
0.39 EPA/tgt
Tommy Tremble
0.15 EPA/tgt
Bad
8.3% sack rate
Average◄
6.4% sack rate
Roy Lopez◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Lee Hunter
no 2025 data
Josh Sweat
no 2025 data
Derrick Brown
no 2025 data
Jack Gibbens
0.7 impact/gm
Bobby Okereke◄
0.7 impact/gm
Denzel Burke
0.7 cover/gm
Mike Jackson◄
1.0 cover/gm
Budda Baker◄
0.5 cover/gm
Nick Scott
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
LA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
NYJ
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Matthew Stafford◄
0.19 EPA/att
Geno Smith
-0.12 EPA/att
Kyren Williams◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Breece Hall
-0.04 EPA/tch
Puka Nacua◄
0.59 EPA/tgt
Garrett Wilson
-0.02 EPA/tgt
Colby Parkinson◄
0.17 EPA/tgt
Mason Taylor
0.12 EPA/tgt
Elite◄
3.7% sack rate
Bad
10.8% sack rate
Poona Ford◄
0.3 disrupt/gm
Harrison Phillips
0.2 disrupt/gm
Kobie Turner
0.6 press/gm
Will McDonald IV◄
0.9 press/gm
Byron Young◄
1.1 impact/gm
Jamien Sherwood
1.0 impact/gm
Jaylen Watson
0.4 cover/gm
Nahshon Wright◄
0.8 cover/gm
Kamren Kinchens◄
0.6 cover/gm
Dane Belton
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
JAX
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
LV
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Trevor Lawrence◄
0.05 EPA/att
Kirk Cousins
-0.00 EPA/att
Bhayshul Tuten◄
-0.03 EPA/tch
Ashton Jeanty
-0.20 EPA/tch
Brian Thomas Jr.
0.14 EPA/tgt
Tre Tucker◄
0.18 EPA/tgt
Brenton Strange◄
0.40 EPA/tgt
Brock Bowers
0.22 EPA/tgt
Bad◄
6.8% sack rate
Bad
11.1% sack rate
DaVon Hamilton
0.2 disrupt/gm
Adam Butler◄
0.3 disrupt/gm
Josh Hines-Allen◄
1.0 press/gm
Jonah Laulu
no 2025 data
Foyesade Oluokun◄
0.9 impact/gm
Quay Walker
0.9 impact/gm
Montaric Brown◄
0.7 cover/gm
Eric Stokes
0.2 cover/gm
Antonio Johnson◄
0.8 cover/gm
Jeremy Chinn
0.3 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
TB
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
DAL
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Baker Mayfield
0.00 EPA/att
Dak Prescott◄
0.15 EPA/att
Bucky Irving
-0.10 EPA/tch
Javonte Williams◄
-0.03 EPA/tch
Emeka Egbuka
0.05 EPA/tgt
CeeDee Lamb◄
0.20 EPA/tgt
Cade Otton
0.03 EPA/tgt
Jake Ferguson◄
0.16 EPA/tgt
Average
6.4% sack rate
Elite◄
4.7% sack rate
Vita Vea◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Otito Ogbonnia
0.3 disrupt/gm
Calijah Kancey
no 2025 data
Quinnen Williams
no 2025 data
Yaya Diaby◄
0.9 impact/gm
Dee Winters
0.8 impact/gm
Jacob Parrish
0.4 cover/gm
Cobie Durant◄
0.5 cover/gm
Antoine Winfield Jr.◄
0.6 cover/gm
Malik Hooker
0.2 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
PHI
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · four-man rush
WAS
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Jalen Hurts◄
0.05 EPA/att
Jayden Daniels
-0.01 EPA/att
Saquon Barkley
-0.08 EPA/tch
Jacory Croskey-Merritt◄
-0.02 EPA/tch
DeVonta Smith◄
0.38 EPA/tgt
Terry McLaurin
0.36 EPA/tgt
Dallas Goedert◄
0.36 EPA/tgt
Chig Okonkwo
0.13 EPA/tgt
Average
6.6% sack rate
Good◄
7.3% sack rate
Average
no data
Daron Payne◄
0.6 disrupt/gm
Jalen Carter
no 2025 data
Tim Settle
no 2025 data
Zack Baun◄
1.0 impact/gm
Odafe Oweh
0.7 impact/gm
Quinyon Mitchell
0.7 cover/gm
Mike Sainristil◄
0.7 cover/gm
Andrew Mukuba
0.4 cover/gm
Nick Cross◄
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
DEN
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
LAC
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Bo Nix◄
0.08 EPA/att
Justin Herbert
0.02 EPA/att
J.K. Dobbins◄
-0.00 EPA/tch
Omarion Hampton
-0.01 EPA/tch
Jaylen Waddle◄
0.27 EPA/tgt
Ladd McConkey
0.05 EPA/tgt
Evan Engram
0.04 EPA/tgt
Charlie Kolar◄
0.15 EPA/tgt
Elite◄
3.6% sack rate
Bad
9.5% sack rate
D.J. Jones◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Dalvin Tomlinson
no 2025 data
Zach Allen◄
1.1 press/gm
Teair Tart
no 2025 data
Nik Bonitto◄
1.2 impact/gm
Daiyan Henley
0.8 impact/gm
Riley Moss◄
0.8 cover/gm
Cam Hart
0.5 cover/gm
Talanoa Hufanga
0.7 cover/gm
Derwin James Jr.◄
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
MIN
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
SEA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Kyler Murray
0.02 EPA/att
Sam Darnold◄
0.11 EPA/att
Aaron Jones Sr.
-0.04 EPA/tch
Brady Russell◄
-0.01 EPA/tch
Justin Jefferson
-0.08 EPA/tgt
Jaxon Smith-Njigba◄
0.47 EPA/tgt
T.J. Hockenson
0.17 EPA/tgt
AJ Barner◄
0.32 EPA/tgt
Bad
11.0% sack rate
Average◄
5.3% sack rate
Caleb Banks
no 2025 data
Byron Murphy II◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Levi Drake Rodriguez
no 2025 data
Leonard Williams
0.8 press/gm
Eric Wilson◄
1.1 impact/gm
DeMarcus Lawrence
0.8 impact/gm
Byron Murphy Jr.
0.4 cover/gm
Josh Jobe◄
0.6 cover/gm
Joshua Metellus◄
0.6 cover/gm
Ty Okada
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
SF
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
MIA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Brock Purdy◄
0.13 EPA/att
Malik Willis
0.13 EPA/att
Christian McCaffrey◄
0.04 EPA/tch
De'Von Achane
0.01 EPA/tch
Mike Evans◄
0.06 EPA/tgt
Malik Washington
-0.10 EPA/tgt
George Kittle◄
0.53 EPA/tgt
Greg Dulcich
0.34 EPA/tgt
Average
4.5% sack rate
Good◄
7.4% sack rate
Osa Odighizuwa◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Jordan Phillips
0.2 disrupt/gm
Keion White
0.2 press/gm
Chop Robinson◄
no 2025 data
Luke Gifford
0.1 impact/gm
Jordyn Brooks◄
1.2 impact/gm
Deommodore Lenoir◄
0.3 cover/gm
Jason Marshall Jr.
0.3 cover/gm
Ji'Ayir Brown◄
0.5 cover/gm
Dante Trader Jr.
0.2 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
Winner accuracy by grade, 1070 games. A high grade means a clearer mismatch — but the books know it too, so higher accuracy here does not mean a betting edge.
All validated trends · out-of-sample (2020–2026)
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