We simulate every NFL game on opponent-adjusted net EPA — offense and defense on both sides set the projected margin, scoring rates set the total — then post only the handful we have the most conviction in. Every posted game gets a grade and a projected score, and every one is graded against the real result.
Graded games
75.9%
the games we post · B+ or better
Full slate
62.5%
every game · n=1070
Market
67.4%
closing line · it’s better
Margin error
10.5
points, full slate
Accuracy is measured against the actual final score — did we pick the winner, and how many points off was the margin — not against the betting line. Across 2019–2025 the simulator calls 62.5% of all games straight up. The market’s closing line calls 67.4% — the NFL is the most efficient market in sports, so the full slate is worse than the market and we say so. It is a prediction tool, not a betting edge: it does not beat the spread. Analysis and entertainment, 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.
Board went 1-0 · full slate 11-5 straight up
Our 1 highest-conviction calls out of 16 games this week. We post at most 6, and nothing below a B+ — a thin week posts fewer rather than padding the board.
CHI
MIN
17
26
Offense
MIN
Defense
MIN
Called it ✓
CHI
OFF Balanced · under-center · heavy personnel
Every game we simulated this week, highest conviction first. The board above is only the ones that cleared B+— here’s the whole week so nothing’s hidden.
CHI
OFF Balanced · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
MIN
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Caleb Williams◄
0.06 EPA/att
Kyler Murray
The grade is our conviction in our own call — how big the projected margin is. Here is how each grade actually performed across 2019–2025:
Net EPA — opponent-adjusted expected points added on offense and defense, both sides of the ball — sets the projected margin. Scoring rates set the total. Ratings are computed as of that week’s kickoff, using only games already played, so nothing is graded with hindsight. Early in the season a team carries its prior-year rating until it has enough games to stand on its own.
It does not beat the spread. The NFL market is the sharpest in sports. We publish this because the projection and the matchup are interesting and we grade ourselves honestly against the real score — not because it prints money.
Also on our board
Separate from the simulator: situational trends mined from 1999–2026 seasons and validated out-of-sample. Only the ones that actually hold up.
The Sizzlin NFL Simulator is analysis and entertainment — not betting advice or a guaranteed outcome. 21+. 1-800-GAMBLER.
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
MIN
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Caleb Williams◄
0.06 EPA/att
Kyler Murray
0.02 EPA/att
D'Andre Swift◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Aaron Jones Sr.
-0.04 EPA/tch
Rome Odunze◄
0.18 EPA/tgt
Justin Jefferson
-0.08 EPA/tgt
Colston Loveland◄
0.47 EPA/tgt
T.J. Hockenson
0.17 EPA/tgt
Elite◄
4.0% sack rate
Bad
11.0% sack rate
Grady Jarrett
0.3 disrupt/gm
Caleb Banks◄
no 2025 data
Montez Sweat◄
0.9 press/gm
Levi Drake Rodriguez
no 2025 data
Devin Bush
0.9 impact/gm
Eric Wilson◄
1.1 impact/gm
Cam Lewis
0.2 cover/gm
Byron Murphy Jr.◄
0.4 cover/gm
Xavier Woods
0.4 cover/gm
Joshua Metellus◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
0.02 EPA/att
D'Andre Swift◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Aaron Jones Sr.
-0.04 EPA/tch
Rome Odunze◄
0.18 EPA/tgt
Justin Jefferson
-0.08 EPA/tgt
Colston Loveland◄
0.47 EPA/tgt
T.J. Hockenson
0.17 EPA/tgt
Elite◄
4.0% sack rate
Bad
11.0% sack rate
Grady Jarrett
0.3 disrupt/gm
Caleb Banks◄
no 2025 data
Montez Sweat◄
0.9 press/gm
Levi Drake Rodriguez
no 2025 data
Devin Bush
0.9 impact/gm
Eric Wilson◄
1.1 impact/gm
Cam Lewis
0.2 cover/gm
Byron Murphy Jr.◄
0.4 cover/gm
Xavier Woods
0.4 cover/gm
Joshua Metellus◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
IND
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
DEN
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
Daniel Jones◄
0.11 EPA/att
Bo Nix
0.08 EPA/att
Jonathan Taylor◄
0.07 EPA/tch
J.K. Dobbins
-0.00 EPA/tch
Alec Pierce◄
0.49 EPA/tgt
Jaylen Waddle
0.27 EPA/tgt
Tyler Warren◄
0.12 EPA/tgt
Evan Engram
0.04 EPA/tgt
Good
5.0% sack rate
Elite◄
3.6% sack rate
Grover Stewart
0.3 disrupt/gm
D.J. Jones◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Laiatu Latu
0.9 press/gm
Zach Allen◄
1.1 press/gm
Akeem Davis-Gaither
0.5 impact/gm
Nik Bonitto◄
1.2 impact/gm
Sauce Gardner
0.5 cover/gm
Riley Moss◄
0.8 cover/gm
Cam Bynum◄
0.7 cover/gm
Talanoa Hufanga
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
NE
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
ARI
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Drake Maye◄
0.25 EPA/att
Jacoby Brissett
-0.00 EPA/att
Rhamondre Stevenson
-0.02 EPA/tch
Jeremiyah Love◄
no 2025 data
Romeo Doubs
0.30 EPA/tgt
Marvin Harrison Jr.◄
0.31 EPA/tgt
Hunter Henry
0.36 EPA/tgt
Trey McBride◄
0.39 EPA/tgt
Average◄
8.7% sack rate
Bad
8.3% sack rate
Cory Durden
0.2 disrupt/gm
Roy Lopez◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Christian Barmore
no 2025 data
Josh Sweat
no 2025 data
Dre'Mont Jones
0.6 impact/gm
Jack Gibbens◄
0.7 impact/gm
Carlton Davis III
0.4 cover/gm
Denzel Burke◄
0.7 cover/gm
Craig Woodson
0.3 cover/gm
Budda Baker◄
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
LA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
SF
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Matthew Stafford◄
0.19 EPA/att
Brock Purdy
0.13 EPA/att
Kyren Williams◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Christian McCaffrey
0.04 EPA/tch
Puka Nacua◄
0.59 EPA/tgt
Mike Evans
0.06 EPA/tgt
Colby Parkinson
0.17 EPA/tgt
George Kittle◄
0.53 EPA/tgt
Elite◄
3.7% sack rate
Average
4.5% sack rate
Poona Ford
0.3 disrupt/gm
Osa Odighizuwa◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Kobie Turner◄
0.6 press/gm
Keion White
0.2 press/gm
Byron Young◄
1.1 impact/gm
Luke Gifford
0.1 impact/gm
Jaylen Watson◄
0.4 cover/gm
Deommodore Lenoir
0.3 cover/gm
Kamren Kinchens◄
0.6 cover/gm
Ji'Ayir Brown
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
PIT
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
PHI
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · four-man rush
Aaron Rodgers
0.04 EPA/att
Jalen Hurts◄
0.05 EPA/att
Jaylen Warren◄
0.03 EPA/tch
Saquon Barkley
-0.08 EPA/tch
DK Metcalf
0.26 EPA/tgt
DeVonta Smith◄
0.38 EPA/tgt
Darnell Washington
0.24 EPA/tgt
Dallas Goedert◄
0.36 EPA/tgt
Good◄
5.3% sack rate
Average
6.6% sack rate
Keeanu Benton◄
0.6 disrupt/gm
Average
no data
Cameron Heyward
0.4 press/gm
Jalen Carter◄
no 2025 data
Payton Wilson
0.7 impact/gm
Zack Baun◄
1.0 impact/gm
Jalen Ramsey
0.4 cover/gm
Quinyon Mitchell◄
0.7 cover/gm
Jaquan Brisker◄
0.6 cover/gm
Andrew Mukuba
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
BAL
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
NYG
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Lamar Jackson◄
0.04 EPA/att
Jaxson Dart
0.01 EPA/att
Derrick Henry◄
0.02 EPA/tch
Cam Skattebo
-0.05 EPA/tch
Zay Flowers◄
0.32 EPA/tgt
Malik Nabers
0.04 EPA/tgt
Mark Andrews
0.02 EPA/tgt
Isaiah Likely◄
0.10 EPA/tgt
Good◄
9.6% sack rate
Bad
8.4% sack rate
Travis Jones◄
0.7 disrupt/gm
DJ Reader
0.1 disrupt/gm
Calais Campbell◄
0.7 press/gm
Shelby Harris
0.2 press/gm
Roquan Smith
0.7 impact/gm
Brian Burns◄
1.8 impact/gm
Nate Wiggins◄
0.7 cover/gm
Dru Phillips
0.6 cover/gm
Malaki Starks◄
0.5 cover/gm
Tyler Nubin
0.3 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
MIA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
HOU
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Malik Willis◄
0.13 EPA/att
C.J. Stroud
0.08 EPA/att
De'Von Achane
0.01 EPA/tch
David Montgomery◄
0.02 EPA/tch
Malik Washington
-0.10 EPA/tgt
Nico Collins◄
0.26 EPA/tgt
Greg Dulcich◄
0.34 EPA/tgt
Dalton Schultz
0.29 EPA/tgt
Good◄
7.4% sack rate
Average
5.1% sack rate
Jordan Phillips
0.2 disrupt/gm
Tommy Togiai◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Chop Robinson
no 2025 data
Will Anderson Jr.◄
1.2 press/gm
Jordyn Brooks◄
1.2 impact/gm
Henry To'oTo'o
0.8 impact/gm
Jason Marshall Jr.
0.3 cover/gm
Kamari Lassiter◄
1.0 cover/gm
Dante Trader Jr.
0.2 cover/gm
Reed Blankenship◄
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
TB
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
LAC
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Baker Mayfield
0.00 EPA/att
Justin Herbert◄
0.02 EPA/att
Bucky Irving
-0.10 EPA/tch
Omarion Hampton◄
-0.01 EPA/tch
Emeka Egbuka
0.05 EPA/tgt
Ladd McConkey◄
0.05 EPA/tgt
Cade Otton
0.03 EPA/tgt
Charlie Kolar◄
0.15 EPA/tgt
Average◄
6.4% sack rate
Bad
9.5% sack rate
Vita Vea◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Dalvin Tomlinson
no 2025 data
Calijah Kancey
no 2025 data
Teair Tart
no 2025 data
Yaya Diaby◄
0.9 impact/gm
Daiyan Henley
0.8 impact/gm
Jacob Parrish
0.4 cover/gm
Cam Hart◄
0.5 cover/gm
Antoine Winfield Jr.
0.6 cover/gm
Derwin James Jr.◄
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
BUF
OFF Run-heavy · under-center
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
DET
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
Josh Allen
0.11 EPA/att
Jared Goff◄
0.14 EPA/att
James Cook III
0.04 EPA/tch
Jahmyr Gibbs◄
0.04 EPA/tch
DJ Moore
0.12 EPA/tgt
Amon-Ra St. Brown◄
0.28 EPA/tgt
Dalton Kincaid◄
0.58 EPA/tgt
Sam LaPorta
0.54 EPA/tgt
Good◄
7.5% sack rate
Good
6.3% sack rate
Deone Walker◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Tyleik Williams
0.2 disrupt/gm
T.J. Sanders
no 2025 data
Aidan Hutchinson◄
1.3 press/gm
Greg Rousseau◄
0.7 impact/gm
Derrick Barnes
0.7 impact/gm
Dee Alford◄
0.8 cover/gm
D.J. Reed
0.5 cover/gm
Cole Bishop◄
0.7 cover/gm
Chuck Clark
0.3 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
DAL
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
CAR
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Dak Prescott◄
0.15 EPA/att
Bryce Young
-0.03 EPA/att
Javonte Williams◄
-0.03 EPA/tch
Chuba Hubbard
-0.05 EPA/tch
CeeDee Lamb◄
0.20 EPA/tgt
Tetairoa McMillan
0.17 EPA/tgt
Jake Ferguson◄
0.16 EPA/tgt
Tommy Tremble
0.15 EPA/tgt
Elite◄
4.7% sack rate
Average
6.4% sack rate
Otito Ogbonnia
0.3 disrupt/gm
Lee Hunter◄
no 2025 data
Quinnen Williams
no 2025 data
Derrick Brown
no 2025 data
Dee Winters◄
0.8 impact/gm
Bobby Okereke
0.7 impact/gm
Cobie Durant
0.5 cover/gm
Mike Jackson◄
1.0 cover/gm
Malik Hooker
0.2 cover/gm
Nick Scott◄
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
KC
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
CLE
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Patrick Mahomes◄
0.10 EPA/att
Deshaun Watson
no 2025 data
Kenneth Walker III◄
-0.02 EPA/tch
Quinshon Judkins
-0.10 EPA/tch
Rashee Rice◄
0.15 EPA/tgt
Jerry Jeudy
-0.24 EPA/tgt
Travis Kelce◄
0.32 EPA/tgt
Harold Fannin Jr.
0.01 EPA/tgt
Average◄
7.4% sack rate
Bad
8.4% sack rate
Khyiris Tonga
0.1 disrupt/gm
Mason Graham◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
George Karlaftis
0.8 press/gm
Jared Verse◄
0.9 press/gm
Drue Tranquill
0.7 impact/gm
Carson Schwesinger◄
0.9 impact/gm
L'Jarius Sneed
0.2 cover/gm
Tyson Campbell◄
0.7 cover/gm
Alohi Gilman◄
0.5 cover/gm
Grant Delpit
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
WAS
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
NO
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Jayden Daniels
-0.01 EPA/att
Tyler Shough◄
0.00 EPA/att
Jacory Croskey-Merritt◄
-0.02 EPA/tch
Travis Etienne Jr.
-0.03 EPA/tch
Terry McLaurin◄
0.36 EPA/tgt
Chris Olave
0.19 EPA/tgt
Chig Okonkwo
0.13 EPA/tgt
Juwan Johnson◄
0.29 EPA/tgt
Good◄
7.3% sack rate
Bad
7.7% sack rate
Daron Payne◄
0.6 disrupt/gm
Davon Godchaux
0.1 disrupt/gm
Tim Settle◄
no 2025 data
Colby Wooden
0.2 press/gm
Odafe Oweh
0.7 impact/gm
Kaden Elliss◄
1.0 impact/gm
Mike Sainristil
0.7 cover/gm
Kool-Aid McKinstry◄
0.9 cover/gm
Nick Cross◄
0.5 cover/gm
Justin Reid
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
ATL
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
LV
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Michael Penix Jr.◄
0.01 EPA/att
Kirk Cousins
-0.00 EPA/att
Bijan Robinson◄
0.03 EPA/tch
Ashton Jeanty
-0.20 EPA/tch
Drake London
0.18 EPA/tgt
Tre Tucker◄
0.18 EPA/tgt
Kyle Pitts Sr.
0.18 EPA/tgt
Brock Bowers◄
0.22 EPA/tgt
Elite◄
4.6% sack rate
Bad
11.1% sack rate
Gervon Dexter Sr.◄
0.7 disrupt/gm
Adam Butler
0.3 disrupt/gm
Brandon Dorlus
0.8 press/gm
Jonah Laulu◄
no 2025 data
Divine Deablo
0.7 impact/gm
Quay Walker◄
0.9 impact/gm
A.J. Terrell Jr.◄
0.5 cover/gm
Eric Stokes
0.2 cover/gm
Jessie Bates III◄
0.6 cover/gm
Jeremy Chinn
0.3 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
GB
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
SEA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Jordan Love◄
0.18 EPA/att
Sam Darnold
0.11 EPA/att
MarShawn Lloyd
no 2025 data
Brady Russell◄
-0.01 EPA/tch
Christian Watson
0.38 EPA/tgt
Jaxon Smith-Njigba◄
0.47 EPA/tgt
Tucker Kraft◄
0.62 EPA/tgt
AJ Barner
0.32 EPA/tgt
Average
5.6% sack rate
Average◄
5.3% sack rate
Javon Hargrave
0.4 disrupt/gm
Byron Murphy II◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Karl Brooks
no 2025 data
Leonard Williams
0.8 press/gm
Edgerrin Cooper
0.6 impact/gm
DeMarcus Lawrence◄
0.8 impact/gm
Keisean Nixon◄
0.7 cover/gm
Josh Jobe
0.6 cover/gm
Evan Williams◄
0.6 cover/gm
Ty Okada
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
CIN
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
TEN
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Joe Burrow◄
0.08 EPA/att
Cam Ward
-0.15 EPA/att
Chase Brown◄
-0.04 EPA/tch
Tony Pollard
-0.10 EPA/tch
Ja'Marr Chase◄
0.19 EPA/tgt
Carnell Tate
no 2025 data
Mike Gesicki◄
0.07 EPA/tgt
Gunnar Helm
0.05 EPA/tgt
Good◄
5.3% sack rate
Bad
8.9% sack rate
Dexter Lawrence II
0.3 disrupt/gm
Jeffery Simmons◄
1.5 disrupt/gm
Boye Mafe
0.2 press/gm
Jermaine Johnson II◄
0.3 press/gm
Demetrius Knight Jr.◄
0.8 impact/gm
Cody Barton
0.7 impact/gm
Dax Hill
0.5 cover/gm
Alontae Taylor◄
0.6 cover/gm
Jordan Battle◄
0.7 cover/gm
Amani Hooker
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
NYJ
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
JAX
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Geno Smith
-0.12 EPA/att
Trevor Lawrence◄
0.05 EPA/att
Breece Hall
-0.04 EPA/tch
Bhayshul Tuten◄
-0.03 EPA/tch
Garrett Wilson
-0.02 EPA/tgt
Brian Thomas Jr.◄
0.14 EPA/tgt
Mason Taylor
0.12 EPA/tgt
Brenton Strange◄
0.40 EPA/tgt
Bad
10.8% sack rate
Bad◄
6.8% sack rate
Harrison Phillips◄
0.2 disrupt/gm
DaVon Hamilton
0.2 disrupt/gm
Will McDonald IV
0.9 press/gm
Josh Hines-Allen◄
1.0 press/gm
Jamien Sherwood◄
1.0 impact/gm
Foyesade Oluokun
0.9 impact/gm
Nahshon Wright◄
0.8 cover/gm
Montaric Brown
0.7 cover/gm
Dane Belton
0.5 cover/gm
Antonio Johnson◄
0.8 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
Winner accuracy by grade, 1070 games. A high grade means a clearer mismatch — but the books know it too, so higher accuracy here does not mean a betting edge.
All validated trends · out-of-sample (2020–2026)
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