We simulate every NFL game on opponent-adjusted net EPA — offense and defense on both sides set the projected margin, scoring rates set the total — then post only the handful we have the most conviction in. Every posted game gets a grade and a projected score, and every one is graded against the real result.
Graded games
75.9%
the games we post · B+ or better
Full slate
62.5%
every game · n=1070
Market
67.4%
closing line · it’s better
Margin error
10.5
points, full slate
Accuracy is measured against the actual final score — did we pick the winner, and how many points off was the margin — not against the betting line. Across 2019–2025 the simulator calls 62.5% of all games straight up. The market’s closing line calls 67.4% — the NFL is the most efficient market in sports, so the full slate is worse than the market and we say so. It is a prediction tool, not a betting edge: it does not beat the spread. Analysis and entertainment, 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.
Board went 1-0 · full slate 10-3 straight up
Our 1 highest-conviction calls out of 13 games this week. We post at most 6, and nothing below a B+ — a thin week posts fewer rather than padding the board.
CAR
PHI
17
30
Offense
PHI
Defense
PHI
Called it ✓
CAR
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
PHI
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · four-man rush
Every game we simulated this week, highest conviction first. The board above is only the ones that cleared B+— here’s the whole week so nothing’s hidden.
CAR
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
PHI
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · four-man rush
Bryce Young
-0.03 EPA/att
Jalen Hurts
The grade is our conviction in our own call — how big the projected margin is. Here is how each grade actually performed across 2019–2025:
Net EPA — opponent-adjusted expected points added on offense and defense, both sides of the ball — sets the projected margin. Scoring rates set the total. Ratings are computed as of that week’s kickoff, using only games already played, so nothing is graded with hindsight. Early in the season a team carries its prior-year rating until it has enough games to stand on its own.
It does not beat the spread. The NFL market is the sharpest in sports. We publish this because the projection and the matchup are interesting and we grade ourselves honestly against the real score — not because it prints money.
Also on our board
Separate from the simulator: situational trends mined from 1999–2026 seasons and validated out-of-sample. Only the ones that actually hold up.
The Sizzlin NFL Simulator is analysis and entertainment — not betting advice or a guaranteed outcome. 21+. 1-800-GAMBLER.
Bryce Young
-0.03 EPA/att
Jalen Hurts◄
0.05 EPA/att
Chuba Hubbard◄
-0.05 EPA/tch
Saquon Barkley
-0.08 EPA/tch
Tetairoa McMillan
0.17 EPA/tgt
DeVonta Smith◄
0.38 EPA/tgt
Tommy Tremble
0.15 EPA/tgt
Dallas Goedert◄
0.36 EPA/tgt
Average◄
6.4% sack rate
Average
6.6% sack rate
Lee Hunter
no 2025 data
Average
no data
Derrick Brown
no 2025 data
Jalen Carter
no 2025 data
Bobby Okereke
0.7 impact/gm
Zack Baun◄
1.0 impact/gm
Mike Jackson◄
1.0 cover/gm
Quinyon Mitchell
0.7 cover/gm
Nick Scott◄
0.4 cover/gm
Andrew Mukuba
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
0.05 EPA/att
Chuba Hubbard◄
-0.05 EPA/tch
Saquon Barkley
-0.08 EPA/tch
Tetairoa McMillan
0.17 EPA/tgt
DeVonta Smith◄
0.38 EPA/tgt
Tommy Tremble
0.15 EPA/tgt
Dallas Goedert◄
0.36 EPA/tgt
Average◄
6.4% sack rate
Average
6.6% sack rate
Lee Hunter
no 2025 data
Average
no data
Derrick Brown
no 2025 data
Jalen Carter
no 2025 data
Bobby Okereke
0.7 impact/gm
Zack Baun◄
1.0 impact/gm
Mike Jackson◄
1.0 cover/gm
Quinyon Mitchell
0.7 cover/gm
Nick Scott◄
0.4 cover/gm
Andrew Mukuba
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
LV
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
TB
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Kirk Cousins
-0.00 EPA/att
Baker Mayfield◄
0.00 EPA/att
Ashton Jeanty
-0.20 EPA/tch
Bucky Irving◄
-0.10 EPA/tch
Tre Tucker◄
0.18 EPA/tgt
Emeka Egbuka
0.05 EPA/tgt
Brock Bowers◄
0.22 EPA/tgt
Cade Otton
0.03 EPA/tgt
Bad
11.1% sack rate
Average◄
6.4% sack rate
Adam Butler
0.3 disrupt/gm
Vita Vea◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Jonah Laulu
no 2025 data
Calijah Kancey
no 2025 data
Quay Walker◄
0.9 impact/gm
Yaya Diaby
0.9 impact/gm
Eric Stokes
0.2 cover/gm
Jacob Parrish◄
0.4 cover/gm
Jeremy Chinn
0.3 cover/gm
Antoine Winfield Jr.◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
CLE
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
PIT
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Deshaun Watson◄
no 2025 data
Aaron Rodgers
0.04 EPA/att
Quinshon Judkins
-0.10 EPA/tch
Jaylen Warren◄
0.03 EPA/tch
Jerry Jeudy
-0.24 EPA/tgt
DK Metcalf◄
0.26 EPA/tgt
Harold Fannin Jr.
0.01 EPA/tgt
Darnell Washington◄
0.24 EPA/tgt
Bad
8.4% sack rate
Good◄
5.3% sack rate
Mason Graham
0.4 disrupt/gm
Keeanu Benton◄
0.6 disrupt/gm
Jared Verse◄
0.9 press/gm
Cameron Heyward
0.4 press/gm
Carson Schwesinger◄
0.9 impact/gm
Payton Wilson
0.7 impact/gm
Tyson Campbell◄
0.7 cover/gm
Jalen Ramsey
0.4 cover/gm
Grant Delpit
0.4 cover/gm
Jaquan Brisker◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
ATL
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
MIN
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Michael Penix Jr.
0.01 EPA/att
Kyler Murray◄
0.02 EPA/att
Bijan Robinson◄
0.03 EPA/tch
Aaron Jones Sr.
-0.04 EPA/tch
Drake London◄
0.18 EPA/tgt
Justin Jefferson
-0.08 EPA/tgt
Kyle Pitts Sr.◄
0.18 EPA/tgt
T.J. Hockenson
0.17 EPA/tgt
Elite◄
4.6% sack rate
Bad
11.0% sack rate
Gervon Dexter Sr.◄
0.7 disrupt/gm
Caleb Banks
no 2025 data
Brandon Dorlus
0.8 press/gm
Levi Drake Rodriguez◄
no 2025 data
Divine Deablo
0.7 impact/gm
Eric Wilson◄
1.1 impact/gm
A.J. Terrell Jr.◄
0.5 cover/gm
Byron Murphy Jr.
0.4 cover/gm
Jessie Bates III◄
0.6 cover/gm
Joshua Metellus
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
GB
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
DET
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
Jordan Love◄
0.18 EPA/att
Jared Goff
0.14 EPA/att
MarShawn Lloyd
no 2025 data
Jahmyr Gibbs◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Christian Watson◄
0.38 EPA/tgt
Amon-Ra St. Brown
0.28 EPA/tgt
Tucker Kraft◄
0.62 EPA/tgt
Sam LaPorta
0.54 EPA/tgt
Average
5.6% sack rate
Good◄
6.3% sack rate
Javon Hargrave◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Tyleik Williams
0.2 disrupt/gm
Karl Brooks
no 2025 data
Aidan Hutchinson◄
1.3 press/gm
Edgerrin Cooper
0.6 impact/gm
Derrick Barnes◄
0.7 impact/gm
Keisean Nixon◄
0.7 cover/gm
D.J. Reed
0.5 cover/gm
Evan Williams◄
0.6 cover/gm
Chuck Clark
0.3 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
CHI
OFF Balanced · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
SF
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Caleb Williams
0.06 EPA/att
Brock Purdy◄
0.13 EPA/att
D'Andre Swift◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Christian McCaffrey
0.04 EPA/tch
Rome Odunze◄
0.18 EPA/tgt
Mike Evans
0.06 EPA/tgt
Colston Loveland
0.47 EPA/tgt
George Kittle◄
0.53 EPA/tgt
Elite◄
4.0% sack rate
Average
4.5% sack rate
Grady Jarrett
0.3 disrupt/gm
Osa Odighizuwa◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Montez Sweat◄
0.9 press/gm
Keion White
0.2 press/gm
Devin Bush◄
0.9 impact/gm
Luke Gifford
0.1 impact/gm
Cam Lewis
0.2 cover/gm
Deommodore Lenoir◄
0.3 cover/gm
Xavier Woods
0.4 cover/gm
Ji'Ayir Brown◄
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
JAX
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
TEN
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Trevor Lawrence◄
0.05 EPA/att
Cam Ward
-0.15 EPA/att
Bhayshul Tuten◄
-0.03 EPA/tch
Tony Pollard
-0.10 EPA/tch
Brian Thomas Jr.
0.14 EPA/tgt
Carnell Tate◄
no 2025 data
Brenton Strange◄
0.40 EPA/tgt
Gunnar Helm
0.05 EPA/tgt
Bad◄
6.8% sack rate
Bad
8.9% sack rate
DaVon Hamilton
0.2 disrupt/gm
Jeffery Simmons◄
1.5 disrupt/gm
Josh Hines-Allen◄
1.0 press/gm
Jermaine Johnson II
0.3 press/gm
Foyesade Oluokun◄
0.9 impact/gm
Cody Barton
0.7 impact/gm
Montaric Brown◄
0.7 cover/gm
Alontae Taylor
0.6 cover/gm
Antonio Johnson◄
0.8 cover/gm
Amani Hooker
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
SEA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
ARI
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Sam Darnold◄
0.11 EPA/att
Jacoby Brissett
-0.00 EPA/att
Brady Russell◄
-0.01 EPA/tch
Jeremiyah Love
no 2025 data
Jaxon Smith-Njigba◄
0.47 EPA/tgt
Marvin Harrison Jr.
0.31 EPA/tgt
AJ Barner
0.32 EPA/tgt
Trey McBride◄
0.39 EPA/tgt
Average◄
5.3% sack rate
Bad
8.3% sack rate
Byron Murphy II◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Roy Lopez
0.4 disrupt/gm
Leonard Williams
0.8 press/gm
Josh Sweat
no 2025 data
DeMarcus Lawrence◄
0.8 impact/gm
Jack Gibbens
0.7 impact/gm
Josh Jobe
0.6 cover/gm
Denzel Burke◄
0.7 cover/gm
Ty Okada◄
0.5 cover/gm
Budda Baker
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
BUF
OFF Run-heavy · under-center
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
LA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Josh Allen
0.11 EPA/att
Matthew Stafford◄
0.19 EPA/att
James Cook III
0.04 EPA/tch
Kyren Williams◄
0.04 EPA/tch
DJ Moore
0.12 EPA/tgt
Puka Nacua◄
0.59 EPA/tgt
Dalton Kincaid◄
0.58 EPA/tgt
Colby Parkinson
0.17 EPA/tgt
Good
7.5% sack rate
Elite◄
3.7% sack rate
Deone Walker◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Poona Ford
0.3 disrupt/gm
T.J. Sanders◄
no 2025 data
Kobie Turner
0.6 press/gm
Greg Rousseau
0.7 impact/gm
Byron Young◄
1.1 impact/gm
Dee Alford◄
0.8 cover/gm
Jaylen Watson
0.4 cover/gm
Cole Bishop◄
0.7 cover/gm
Kamren Kinchens
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
NYJ
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
MIA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Geno Smith
-0.12 EPA/att
Malik Willis◄
0.13 EPA/att
Breece Hall
-0.04 EPA/tch
De'Von Achane◄
0.01 EPA/tch
Garrett Wilson◄
-0.02 EPA/tgt
Malik Washington
-0.10 EPA/tgt
Mason Taylor
0.12 EPA/tgt
Greg Dulcich◄
0.34 EPA/tgt
Bad
10.8% sack rate
Good◄
7.4% sack rate
Harrison Phillips◄
0.2 disrupt/gm
Jordan Phillips
0.2 disrupt/gm
Will McDonald IV◄
0.9 press/gm
Chop Robinson
no 2025 data
Jamien Sherwood
1.0 impact/gm
Jordyn Brooks◄
1.2 impact/gm
Nahshon Wright◄
0.8 cover/gm
Jason Marshall Jr.
0.3 cover/gm
Dane Belton◄
0.5 cover/gm
Dante Trader Jr.
0.2 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
CIN
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
DAL
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Joe Burrow
0.08 EPA/att
Dak Prescott◄
0.15 EPA/att
Chase Brown
-0.04 EPA/tch
Javonte Williams◄
-0.03 EPA/tch
Ja'Marr Chase
0.19 EPA/tgt
CeeDee Lamb◄
0.20 EPA/tgt
Mike Gesicki
0.07 EPA/tgt
Jake Ferguson◄
0.16 EPA/tgt
Good
5.3% sack rate
Elite◄
4.7% sack rate
Dexter Lawrence II◄
0.3 disrupt/gm
Otito Ogbonnia
0.3 disrupt/gm
Boye Mafe
0.2 press/gm
Quinnen Williams◄
no 2025 data
Demetrius Knight Jr.
0.8 impact/gm
Dee Winters◄
0.8 impact/gm
Dax Hill◄
0.5 cover/gm
Cobie Durant
0.5 cover/gm
Jordan Battle◄
0.7 cover/gm
Malik Hooker
0.2 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
LAC
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
KC
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Justin Herbert
0.02 EPA/att
Patrick Mahomes◄
0.10 EPA/att
Omarion Hampton◄
-0.01 EPA/tch
Kenneth Walker III
-0.02 EPA/tch
Ladd McConkey
0.05 EPA/tgt
Rashee Rice◄
0.15 EPA/tgt
Charlie Kolar
0.15 EPA/tgt
Travis Kelce◄
0.32 EPA/tgt
Bad
9.5% sack rate
Average◄
7.4% sack rate
Dalvin Tomlinson◄
no 2025 data
Khyiris Tonga
0.1 disrupt/gm
Teair Tart
no 2025 data
George Karlaftis
0.8 press/gm
Daiyan Henley◄
0.8 impact/gm
Drue Tranquill
0.7 impact/gm
Cam Hart◄
0.5 cover/gm
L'Jarius Sneed
0.2 cover/gm
Derwin James Jr.◄
0.7 cover/gm
Alohi Gilman
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
NO
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
NYG
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Tyler Shough
0.00 EPA/att
Jaxson Dart◄
0.01 EPA/att
Travis Etienne Jr.◄
-0.03 EPA/tch
Cam Skattebo
-0.05 EPA/tch
Chris Olave◄
0.19 EPA/tgt
Malik Nabers
0.04 EPA/tgt
Juwan Johnson◄
0.29 EPA/tgt
Isaiah Likely
0.10 EPA/tgt
Bad
7.7% sack rate
Bad◄
8.4% sack rate
Davon Godchaux◄
0.1 disrupt/gm
DJ Reader
0.1 disrupt/gm
Colby Wooden
0.2 press/gm
Shelby Harris◄
0.2 press/gm
Kaden Elliss
1.0 impact/gm
Brian Burns◄
1.8 impact/gm
Kool-Aid McKinstry◄
0.9 cover/gm
Dru Phillips
0.6 cover/gm
Justin Reid◄
0.5 cover/gm
Tyler Nubin
0.3 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
Winner accuracy by grade, 1070 games. A high grade means a clearer mismatch — but the books know it too, so higher accuracy here does not mean a betting edge.
All validated trends · out-of-sample (2020–2026)
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