We simulate every NFL game on opponent-adjusted net EPA — offense and defense on both sides set the projected margin, scoring rates set the total — then post only the handful we have the most conviction in. Every posted game gets a grade and a projected score, and every one is graded against the real result.
Graded games
75.9%
the games we post · B+ or better
Full slate
62.5%
every game · n=1070
Market
67.4%
closing line · it’s better
Margin error
10.5
points, full slate
Accuracy is measured against the actual final score — did we pick the winner, and how many points off was the margin — not against the betting line. Across 2019–2025 the simulator calls 62.5% of all games straight up. The market’s closing line calls 67.4% — the NFL is the most efficient market in sports, so the full slate is worse than the market and we say so. It is a prediction tool, not a betting edge: it does not beat the spread. Analysis and entertainment, 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.
Board went 3-0 · full slate 11-5 straight up
Our 3 highest-conviction calls out of 16 games this week. We post at most 6, and nothing below a B+ — a thin week posts fewer rather than padding the board.
LV
KC
18
28
Offense
KC
Defense
KC
Called it ✓
LV
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
KC
Pass-heavy · shotgun spread · heavy personnel
Every game we simulated this week, highest conviction first. The board above is only the ones that cleared B+— here’s the whole week so nothing’s hidden.
LV
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
KC
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Kirk Cousins
-0.00 EPA/att
Patrick Mahomes
The grade is our conviction in our own call — how big the projected margin is. Here is how each grade actually performed across 2019–2025:
Net EPA — opponent-adjusted expected points added on offense and defense, both sides of the ball — sets the projected margin. Scoring rates set the total. Ratings are computed as of that week’s kickoff, using only games already played, so nothing is graded with hindsight. Early in the season a team carries its prior-year rating until it has enough games to stand on its own.
It does not beat the spread. The NFL market is the sharpest in sports. We publish this because the projection and the matchup are interesting and we grade ourselves honestly against the real score — not because it prints money.
Also on our board
Separate from the simulator: situational trends mined from 1999–2026 seasons and validated out-of-sample. Only the ones that actually hold up.
The Sizzlin NFL Simulator is analysis and entertainment — not betting advice or a guaranteed outcome. 21+. 1-800-GAMBLER.
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Kirk Cousins
-0.00 EPA/att
Patrick Mahomes◄
0.10 EPA/att
Ashton Jeanty
-0.20 EPA/tch
Kenneth Walker III◄
-0.02 EPA/tch
Tre Tucker◄
0.18 EPA/tgt
Rashee Rice
0.15 EPA/tgt
Brock Bowers
0.22 EPA/tgt
Travis Kelce◄
0.32 EPA/tgt
Bad
11.1% sack rate
Average◄
7.4% sack rate
Adam Butler◄
0.3 disrupt/gm
Khyiris Tonga
0.1 disrupt/gm
Jonah Laulu
no 2025 data
George Karlaftis
0.8 press/gm
Quay Walker◄
0.9 impact/gm
Drue Tranquill
0.7 impact/gm
Eric Stokes◄
0.2 cover/gm
L'Jarius Sneed
0.2 cover/gm
Jeremy Chinn
0.3 cover/gm
Alohi Gilman◄
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
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0.10 EPA/att
Ashton Jeanty
-0.20 EPA/tch
Kenneth Walker III◄
-0.02 EPA/tch
Tre Tucker◄
0.18 EPA/tgt
Rashee Rice
0.15 EPA/tgt
Brock Bowers
0.22 EPA/tgt
Travis Kelce◄
0.32 EPA/tgt
Bad
11.1% sack rate
Average◄
7.4% sack rate
Adam Butler◄
0.3 disrupt/gm
Khyiris Tonga
0.1 disrupt/gm
Jonah Laulu
no 2025 data
George Karlaftis
0.8 press/gm
Quay Walker◄
0.9 impact/gm
Drue Tranquill
0.7 impact/gm
Eric Stokes◄
0.2 cover/gm
L'Jarius Sneed
0.2 cover/gm
Jeremy Chinn
0.3 cover/gm
Alohi Gilman◄
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
CHI
OFF Balanced · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
DET
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
Caleb Williams
0.06 EPA/att
Jared Goff◄
0.14 EPA/att
D'Andre Swift◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Jahmyr Gibbs
0.04 EPA/tch
Rome Odunze
0.18 EPA/tgt
Amon-Ra St. Brown◄
0.28 EPA/tgt
Colston Loveland
0.47 EPA/tgt
Sam LaPorta◄
0.54 EPA/tgt
Elite◄
4.0% sack rate
Good
6.3% sack rate
Grady Jarrett◄
0.3 disrupt/gm
Tyleik Williams
0.2 disrupt/gm
Montez Sweat
0.9 press/gm
Aidan Hutchinson◄
1.3 press/gm
Devin Bush◄
0.9 impact/gm
Derrick Barnes
0.7 impact/gm
Cam Lewis
0.2 cover/gm
D.J. Reed◄
0.5 cover/gm
Xavier Woods◄
0.4 cover/gm
Chuck Clark
0.3 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
CLE
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
DEN
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
Deshaun Watson
no 2025 data
Bo Nix◄
0.08 EPA/att
Quinshon Judkins
-0.10 EPA/tch
J.K. Dobbins◄
-0.00 EPA/tch
Jerry Jeudy
-0.24 EPA/tgt
Jaylen Waddle◄
0.27 EPA/tgt
Harold Fannin Jr.
0.01 EPA/tgt
Evan Engram◄
0.04 EPA/tgt
Bad
8.4% sack rate
Elite◄
3.6% sack rate
Mason Graham
0.4 disrupt/gm
D.J. Jones◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Jared Verse
0.9 press/gm
Zach Allen◄
1.1 press/gm
Carson Schwesinger
0.9 impact/gm
Nik Bonitto◄
1.2 impact/gm
Tyson Campbell
0.7 cover/gm
Riley Moss◄
0.8 cover/gm
Grant Delpit
0.4 cover/gm
Talanoa Hufanga◄
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
TEN
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
WAS
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Cam Ward
-0.15 EPA/att
Jayden Daniels◄
-0.01 EPA/att
Tony Pollard
-0.10 EPA/tch
Jacory Croskey-Merritt◄
-0.02 EPA/tch
Carnell Tate
no 2025 data
Terry McLaurin◄
0.36 EPA/tgt
Gunnar Helm
0.05 EPA/tgt
Chig Okonkwo◄
0.13 EPA/tgt
Bad
8.9% sack rate
Good◄
7.3% sack rate
Jeffery Simmons◄
1.5 disrupt/gm
Daron Payne
0.6 disrupt/gm
Jermaine Johnson II
0.3 press/gm
Tim Settle◄
no 2025 data
Cody Barton◄
0.7 impact/gm
Odafe Oweh
0.7 impact/gm
Alontae Taylor
0.6 cover/gm
Mike Sainristil◄
0.7 cover/gm
Amani Hooker◄
0.5 cover/gm
Nick Cross
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
MIA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
GB
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Malik Willis
0.13 EPA/att
Jordan Love◄
0.18 EPA/att
De'Von Achane◄
0.01 EPA/tch
MarShawn Lloyd
no 2025 data
Malik Washington
-0.10 EPA/tgt
Christian Watson◄
0.38 EPA/tgt
Greg Dulcich
0.34 EPA/tgt
Tucker Kraft◄
0.62 EPA/tgt
Good◄
7.4% sack rate
Average
5.6% sack rate
Jordan Phillips
0.2 disrupt/gm
Javon Hargrave◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Chop Robinson
no 2025 data
Karl Brooks
no 2025 data
Jordyn Brooks◄
1.2 impact/gm
Edgerrin Cooper
0.6 impact/gm
Jason Marshall Jr.
0.3 cover/gm
Keisean Nixon◄
0.7 cover/gm
Dante Trader Jr.
0.2 cover/gm
Evan Williams◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
ARI
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
MIN
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Jacoby Brissett
-0.00 EPA/att
Kyler Murray◄
0.02 EPA/att
Jeremiyah Love◄
no 2025 data
Aaron Jones Sr.
-0.04 EPA/tch
Marvin Harrison Jr.◄
0.31 EPA/tgt
Justin Jefferson
-0.08 EPA/tgt
Trey McBride◄
0.39 EPA/tgt
T.J. Hockenson
0.17 EPA/tgt
Bad◄
8.3% sack rate
Bad
11.0% sack rate
Roy Lopez◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Caleb Banks
no 2025 data
Josh Sweat
no 2025 data
Levi Drake Rodriguez
no 2025 data
Jack Gibbens
0.7 impact/gm
Eric Wilson◄
1.1 impact/gm
Denzel Burke◄
0.7 cover/gm
Byron Murphy Jr.
0.4 cover/gm
Budda Baker
0.5 cover/gm
Joshua Metellus◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
SF
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
BUF
OFF Run-heavy · under-center
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Brock Purdy◄
0.13 EPA/att
Josh Allen
0.11 EPA/att
Christian McCaffrey◄
0.04 EPA/tch
James Cook III
0.04 EPA/tch
Mike Evans
0.06 EPA/tgt
DJ Moore◄
0.12 EPA/tgt
George Kittle
0.53 EPA/tgt
Dalton Kincaid◄
0.58 EPA/tgt
Average
4.5% sack rate
Good◄
7.5% sack rate
Osa Odighizuwa◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Deone Walker
0.4 disrupt/gm
Keion White
0.2 press/gm
T.J. Sanders◄
no 2025 data
Luke Gifford
0.1 impact/gm
Greg Rousseau◄
0.7 impact/gm
Deommodore Lenoir
0.3 cover/gm
Dee Alford◄
0.8 cover/gm
Ji'Ayir Brown
0.5 cover/gm
Cole Bishop◄
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
LA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
NO
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Matthew Stafford◄
0.19 EPA/att
Tyler Shough
0.00 EPA/att
Kyren Williams◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Travis Etienne Jr.
-0.03 EPA/tch
Puka Nacua◄
0.59 EPA/tgt
Chris Olave
0.19 EPA/tgt
Colby Parkinson
0.17 EPA/tgt
Juwan Johnson◄
0.29 EPA/tgt
Elite◄
3.7% sack rate
Bad
7.7% sack rate
Poona Ford◄
0.3 disrupt/gm
Davon Godchaux
0.1 disrupt/gm
Kobie Turner◄
0.6 press/gm
Colby Wooden
0.2 press/gm
Byron Young◄
1.1 impact/gm
Kaden Elliss
1.0 impact/gm
Jaylen Watson
0.4 cover/gm
Kool-Aid McKinstry◄
0.9 cover/gm
Kamren Kinchens◄
0.6 cover/gm
Justin Reid
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
HOU
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
JAX
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
C.J. Stroud◄
0.08 EPA/att
Trevor Lawrence
0.05 EPA/att
David Montgomery◄
0.02 EPA/tch
Bhayshul Tuten
-0.03 EPA/tch
Nico Collins◄
0.26 EPA/tgt
Brian Thomas Jr.
0.14 EPA/tgt
Dalton Schultz
0.29 EPA/tgt
Brenton Strange◄
0.40 EPA/tgt
Average◄
5.1% sack rate
Bad
6.8% sack rate
Tommy Togiai◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
DaVon Hamilton
0.2 disrupt/gm
Will Anderson Jr.◄
1.2 press/gm
Josh Hines-Allen
1.0 press/gm
Henry To'oTo'o
0.8 impact/gm
Foyesade Oluokun◄
0.9 impact/gm
Kamari Lassiter◄
1.0 cover/gm
Montaric Brown
0.7 cover/gm
Reed Blankenship
0.4 cover/gm
Antonio Johnson◄
0.8 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
TB
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
CAR
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Baker Mayfield◄
0.00 EPA/att
Bryce Young
-0.03 EPA/att
Bucky Irving
-0.10 EPA/tch
Chuba Hubbard◄
-0.05 EPA/tch
Emeka Egbuka
0.05 EPA/tgt
Tetairoa McMillan◄
0.17 EPA/tgt
Cade Otton
0.03 EPA/tgt
Tommy Tremble◄
0.15 EPA/tgt
Average
6.4% sack rate
Average◄
6.4% sack rate
Vita Vea◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Lee Hunter
no 2025 data
Calijah Kancey
no 2025 data
Derrick Brown
no 2025 data
Yaya Diaby◄
0.9 impact/gm
Bobby Okereke
0.7 impact/gm
Jacob Parrish
0.4 cover/gm
Mike Jackson◄
1.0 cover/gm
Antoine Winfield Jr.◄
0.6 cover/gm
Nick Scott
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
SEA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
NYJ
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Sam Darnold◄
0.11 EPA/att
Geno Smith
-0.12 EPA/att
Brady Russell◄
-0.01 EPA/tch
Breece Hall
-0.04 EPA/tch
Jaxon Smith-Njigba◄
0.47 EPA/tgt
Garrett Wilson
-0.02 EPA/tgt
AJ Barner◄
0.32 EPA/tgt
Mason Taylor
0.12 EPA/tgt
Average◄
5.3% sack rate
Bad
10.8% sack rate
Byron Murphy II◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Harrison Phillips
0.2 disrupt/gm
Leonard Williams
0.8 press/gm
Will McDonald IV◄
0.9 press/gm
DeMarcus Lawrence
0.8 impact/gm
Jamien Sherwood◄
1.0 impact/gm
Josh Jobe
0.6 cover/gm
Nahshon Wright◄
0.8 cover/gm
Ty Okada◄
0.5 cover/gm
Dane Belton
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
PHI
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · four-man rush
BAL
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Jalen Hurts◄
0.05 EPA/att
Lamar Jackson
0.04 EPA/att
Saquon Barkley
-0.08 EPA/tch
Derrick Henry◄
0.02 EPA/tch
DeVonta Smith◄
0.38 EPA/tgt
Zay Flowers
0.32 EPA/tgt
Dallas Goedert◄
0.36 EPA/tgt
Mark Andrews
0.02 EPA/tgt
Average
6.6% sack rate
Good◄
9.6% sack rate
Average
no data
Travis Jones◄
0.7 disrupt/gm
Jalen Carter◄
no 2025 data
Calais Campbell
0.7 press/gm
Zack Baun◄
1.0 impact/gm
Roquan Smith
0.7 impact/gm
Quinyon Mitchell
0.7 cover/gm
Nate Wiggins◄
0.7 cover/gm
Andrew Mukuba
0.4 cover/gm
Malaki Starks◄
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
PIT
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
CIN
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Aaron Rodgers
0.04 EPA/att
Joe Burrow◄
0.08 EPA/att
Jaylen Warren◄
0.03 EPA/tch
Chase Brown
-0.04 EPA/tch
DK Metcalf◄
0.26 EPA/tgt
Ja'Marr Chase
0.19 EPA/tgt
Darnell Washington◄
0.24 EPA/tgt
Mike Gesicki
0.07 EPA/tgt
Good◄
5.3% sack rate
Good
5.3% sack rate
Keeanu Benton◄
0.6 disrupt/gm
Dexter Lawrence II
0.3 disrupt/gm
Cameron Heyward◄
0.4 press/gm
Boye Mafe
0.2 press/gm
Payton Wilson
0.7 impact/gm
Demetrius Knight Jr.◄
0.8 impact/gm
Jalen Ramsey
0.4 cover/gm
Dax Hill◄
0.5 cover/gm
Jaquan Brisker
0.6 cover/gm
Jordan Battle◄
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
NYG
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
DAL
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Jaxson Dart
0.01 EPA/att
Dak Prescott◄
0.15 EPA/att
Cam Skattebo
-0.05 EPA/tch
Javonte Williams◄
-0.03 EPA/tch
Malik Nabers
0.04 EPA/tgt
CeeDee Lamb◄
0.20 EPA/tgt
Isaiah Likely
0.10 EPA/tgt
Jake Ferguson◄
0.16 EPA/tgt
Bad
8.4% sack rate
Elite◄
4.7% sack rate
DJ Reader
0.1 disrupt/gm
Otito Ogbonnia◄
0.3 disrupt/gm
Shelby Harris
0.2 press/gm
Quinnen Williams◄
no 2025 data
Brian Burns◄
1.8 impact/gm
Dee Winters
0.8 impact/gm
Dru Phillips◄
0.6 cover/gm
Cobie Durant
0.5 cover/gm
Tyler Nubin◄
0.3 cover/gm
Malik Hooker
0.2 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
IND
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
NE
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Daniel Jones
0.11 EPA/att
Drake Maye◄
0.25 EPA/att
Jonathan Taylor◄
0.07 EPA/tch
Rhamondre Stevenson
-0.02 EPA/tch
Alec Pierce◄
0.49 EPA/tgt
Romeo Doubs
0.30 EPA/tgt
Tyler Warren
0.12 EPA/tgt
Hunter Henry◄
0.36 EPA/tgt
Good◄
5.0% sack rate
Average
8.7% sack rate
Grover Stewart◄
0.3 disrupt/gm
Cory Durden
0.2 disrupt/gm
Laiatu Latu◄
0.9 press/gm
Christian Barmore
no 2025 data
Akeem Davis-Gaither
0.5 impact/gm
Dre'Mont Jones◄
0.6 impact/gm
Sauce Gardner◄
0.5 cover/gm
Carlton Davis III
0.4 cover/gm
Cam Bynum◄
0.7 cover/gm
Craig Woodson
0.3 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
LAC
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
ATL
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Justin Herbert◄
0.02 EPA/att
Michael Penix Jr.
0.01 EPA/att
Omarion Hampton
-0.01 EPA/tch
Bijan Robinson◄
0.03 EPA/tch
Ladd McConkey
0.05 EPA/tgt
Drake London◄
0.18 EPA/tgt
Charlie Kolar
0.15 EPA/tgt
Kyle Pitts Sr.◄
0.18 EPA/tgt
Bad
9.5% sack rate
Elite◄
4.6% sack rate
Dalvin Tomlinson
no 2025 data
Gervon Dexter Sr.◄
0.7 disrupt/gm
Teair Tart◄
no 2025 data
Brandon Dorlus
0.8 press/gm
Daiyan Henley◄
0.8 impact/gm
Divine Deablo
0.7 impact/gm
Cam Hart◄
0.5 cover/gm
A.J. Terrell Jr.
0.5 cover/gm
Derwin James Jr.◄
0.7 cover/gm
Jessie Bates III
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
Winner accuracy by grade, 1070 games. A high grade means a clearer mismatch — but the books know it too, so higher accuracy here does not mean a betting edge.
All validated trends · out-of-sample (2020–2026)
NFL · Members
The full board, confidence ratings, and daily plays — plus the complete track record. New plays every morning. The track record and featured picks above stay free.
NFL Pass
$9.99/mo
Just NFL
All-AccessBest value
$29.99/mo
All 5 sports
Secure checkout via Stripe. Cancel anytime. 21+. Bet responsibly.
