We simulate every NFL game on opponent-adjusted net EPA — offense and defense on both sides set the projected margin, scoring rates set the total — then post only the handful we have the most conviction in. Every posted game gets a grade and a projected score, and every one is graded against the real result.
Graded games
75.9%
the games we post · B+ or better
Full slate
62.5%
every game · n=1070
Market
67.4%
closing line · it’s better
Margin error
10.5
points, full slate
Accuracy is measured against the actual final score — did we pick the winner, and how many points off was the margin — not against the betting line. Across 2019–2025 the simulator calls 62.5% of all games straight up. The market’s closing line calls 67.4% — the NFL is the most efficient market in sports, so the full slate is worse than the market and we say so. It is a prediction tool, not a betting edge: it does not beat the spread. Analysis and entertainment, 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.
Board went 0-1 · full slate 9-4 straight up
Our 1 highest-conviction calls out of 13 games this week. We post at most 6, and nothing below a B+ — a thin week posts fewer rather than padding the board.
DAL
WAS
19
30
Offense
WAS
Defense
WAS
Missed the winner
DAL
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
WAS
Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
Every game we simulated this week, highest conviction first. The board above is only the ones that cleared B+— here’s the whole week so nothing’s hidden.
DAL
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
WAS
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Dak Prescott◄
0.15 EPA/att
The grade is our conviction in our own call — how big the projected margin is. Here is how each grade actually performed across 2019–2025:
Net EPA — opponent-adjusted expected points added on offense and defense, both sides of the ball — sets the projected margin. Scoring rates set the total. Ratings are computed as of that week’s kickoff, using only games already played, so nothing is graded with hindsight. Early in the season a team carries its prior-year rating until it has enough games to stand on its own.
It does not beat the spread. The NFL market is the sharpest in sports. We publish this because the projection and the matchup are interesting and we grade ourselves honestly against the real score — not because it prints money.
Also on our board
Separate from the simulator: situational trends mined from 1999–2026 seasons and validated out-of-sample. Only the ones that actually hold up.
The Sizzlin NFL Simulator is analysis and entertainment — not betting advice or a guaranteed outcome. 21+. 1-800-GAMBLER.
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Dak Prescott◄
0.15 EPA/att
Jayden Daniels
-0.01 EPA/att
Javonte Williams
-0.03 EPA/tch
Jacory Croskey-Merritt◄
-0.02 EPA/tch
CeeDee Lamb
0.20 EPA/tgt
Terry McLaurin◄
0.36 EPA/tgt
Jake Ferguson◄
0.16 EPA/tgt
Chig Okonkwo
0.13 EPA/tgt
Elite◄
4.7% sack rate
Good
7.3% sack rate
Otito Ogbonnia
0.3 disrupt/gm
Daron Payne◄
0.6 disrupt/gm
Quinnen Williams
no 2025 data
Tim Settle
no 2025 data
Dee Winters◄
0.8 impact/gm
Odafe Oweh
0.7 impact/gm
Cobie Durant
0.5 cover/gm
Mike Sainristil◄
0.7 cover/gm
Malik Hooker
0.2 cover/gm
Nick Cross◄
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
Jayden Daniels
-0.01 EPA/att
Javonte Williams
-0.03 EPA/tch
Jacory Croskey-Merritt◄
-0.02 EPA/tch
CeeDee Lamb
0.20 EPA/tgt
Terry McLaurin◄
0.36 EPA/tgt
Jake Ferguson◄
0.16 EPA/tgt
Chig Okonkwo
0.13 EPA/tgt
Elite◄
4.7% sack rate
Good
7.3% sack rate
Otito Ogbonnia
0.3 disrupt/gm
Daron Payne◄
0.6 disrupt/gm
Quinnen Williams
no 2025 data
Tim Settle
no 2025 data
Dee Winters◄
0.8 impact/gm
Odafe Oweh
0.7 impact/gm
Cobie Durant
0.5 cover/gm
Mike Sainristil◄
0.7 cover/gm
Malik Hooker
0.2 cover/gm
Nick Cross◄
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
TEN
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
HOU
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Cam Ward
-0.15 EPA/att
C.J. Stroud◄
0.08 EPA/att
Tony Pollard
-0.10 EPA/tch
David Montgomery◄
0.02 EPA/tch
Carnell Tate
no 2025 data
Nico Collins◄
0.26 EPA/tgt
Gunnar Helm
0.05 EPA/tgt
Dalton Schultz◄
0.29 EPA/tgt
Bad
8.9% sack rate
Average◄
5.1% sack rate
Jeffery Simmons◄
1.5 disrupt/gm
Tommy Togiai
0.4 disrupt/gm
Jermaine Johnson II
0.3 press/gm
Will Anderson Jr.◄
1.2 press/gm
Cody Barton
0.7 impact/gm
Henry To'oTo'o◄
0.8 impact/gm
Alontae Taylor
0.6 cover/gm
Kamari Lassiter◄
1.0 cover/gm
Amani Hooker◄
0.5 cover/gm
Reed Blankenship
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
KC
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
CAR
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Patrick Mahomes◄
0.10 EPA/att
Bryce Young
-0.03 EPA/att
Kenneth Walker III◄
-0.02 EPA/tch
Chuba Hubbard
-0.05 EPA/tch
Rashee Rice
0.15 EPA/tgt
Tetairoa McMillan◄
0.17 EPA/tgt
Travis Kelce◄
0.32 EPA/tgt
Tommy Tremble
0.15 EPA/tgt
Average
7.4% sack rate
Average◄
6.4% sack rate
Khyiris Tonga
0.1 disrupt/gm
Lee Hunter◄
no 2025 data
George Karlaftis
0.8 press/gm
Derrick Brown
no 2025 data
Drue Tranquill◄
0.7 impact/gm
Bobby Okereke
0.7 impact/gm
L'Jarius Sneed
0.2 cover/gm
Mike Jackson◄
1.0 cover/gm
Alohi Gilman◄
0.5 cover/gm
Nick Scott
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
DEN
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
LV
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Bo Nix◄
0.08 EPA/att
Kirk Cousins
-0.00 EPA/att
J.K. Dobbins◄
-0.00 EPA/tch
Ashton Jeanty
-0.20 EPA/tch
Jaylen Waddle◄
0.27 EPA/tgt
Tre Tucker
0.18 EPA/tgt
Evan Engram
0.04 EPA/tgt
Brock Bowers◄
0.22 EPA/tgt
Elite◄
3.6% sack rate
Bad
11.1% sack rate
D.J. Jones◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Adam Butler
0.3 disrupt/gm
Zach Allen◄
1.1 press/gm
Jonah Laulu
no 2025 data
Nik Bonitto◄
1.2 impact/gm
Quay Walker
0.9 impact/gm
Riley Moss◄
0.8 cover/gm
Eric Stokes
0.2 cover/gm
Talanoa Hufanga◄
0.7 cover/gm
Jeremy Chinn
0.3 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
NE
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
MIA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Drake Maye◄
0.25 EPA/att
Malik Willis
0.13 EPA/att
Rhamondre Stevenson
-0.02 EPA/tch
De'Von Achane◄
0.01 EPA/tch
Romeo Doubs◄
0.30 EPA/tgt
Malik Washington
-0.10 EPA/tgt
Hunter Henry◄
0.36 EPA/tgt
Greg Dulcich
0.34 EPA/tgt
Average
8.7% sack rate
Good◄
7.4% sack rate
Cory Durden◄
0.2 disrupt/gm
Jordan Phillips
0.2 disrupt/gm
Christian Barmore
no 2025 data
Chop Robinson
no 2025 data
Dre'Mont Jones
0.6 impact/gm
Jordyn Brooks◄
1.2 impact/gm
Carlton Davis III◄
0.4 cover/gm
Jason Marshall Jr.
0.3 cover/gm
Craig Woodson◄
0.3 cover/gm
Dante Trader Jr.
0.2 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
DET
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
IND
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Jared Goff◄
0.14 EPA/att
Daniel Jones
0.11 EPA/att
Jahmyr Gibbs
0.04 EPA/tch
Jonathan Taylor◄
0.07 EPA/tch
Amon-Ra St. Brown
0.28 EPA/tgt
Alec Pierce◄
0.49 EPA/tgt
Sam LaPorta◄
0.54 EPA/tgt
Tyler Warren
0.12 EPA/tgt
Good
6.3% sack rate
Good◄
5.0% sack rate
Tyleik Williams
0.2 disrupt/gm
Grover Stewart◄
0.3 disrupt/gm
Aidan Hutchinson◄
1.3 press/gm
Laiatu Latu
0.9 press/gm
Derrick Barnes◄
0.7 impact/gm
Akeem Davis-Gaither
0.5 impact/gm
D.J. Reed◄
0.5 cover/gm
Sauce Gardner
0.5 cover/gm
Chuck Clark
0.3 cover/gm
Cam Bynum◄
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
PIT
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
CLE
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Aaron Rodgers
0.04 EPA/att
Deshaun Watson◄
no 2025 data
Jaylen Warren◄
0.03 EPA/tch
Quinshon Judkins
-0.10 EPA/tch
DK Metcalf◄
0.26 EPA/tgt
Jerry Jeudy
-0.24 EPA/tgt
Darnell Washington◄
0.24 EPA/tgt
Harold Fannin Jr.
0.01 EPA/tgt
Good◄
5.3% sack rate
Bad
8.4% sack rate
Keeanu Benton◄
0.6 disrupt/gm
Mason Graham
0.4 disrupt/gm
Cameron Heyward
0.4 press/gm
Jared Verse◄
0.9 press/gm
Payton Wilson
0.7 impact/gm
Carson Schwesinger◄
0.9 impact/gm
Jalen Ramsey
0.4 cover/gm
Tyson Campbell◄
0.7 cover/gm
Jaquan Brisker◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grant Delpit
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
PHI
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · four-man rush
LA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Jalen Hurts
0.05 EPA/att
Matthew Stafford◄
0.19 EPA/att
Saquon Barkley
-0.08 EPA/tch
Kyren Williams◄
0.04 EPA/tch
DeVonta Smith
0.38 EPA/tgt
Puka Nacua◄
0.59 EPA/tgt
Dallas Goedert◄
0.36 EPA/tgt
Colby Parkinson
0.17 EPA/tgt
Average
6.6% sack rate
Elite◄
3.7% sack rate
Average◄
no data
Poona Ford
0.3 disrupt/gm
Jalen Carter◄
no 2025 data
Kobie Turner
0.6 press/gm
Zack Baun
1.0 impact/gm
Byron Young◄
1.1 impact/gm
Quinyon Mitchell◄
0.7 cover/gm
Jaylen Watson
0.4 cover/gm
Andrew Mukuba
0.4 cover/gm
Kamren Kinchens◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
MIN
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
CHI
OFF Balanced · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
Kyler Murray
0.02 EPA/att
Caleb Williams◄
0.06 EPA/att
Aaron Jones Sr.
-0.04 EPA/tch
D'Andre Swift◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Justin Jefferson
-0.08 EPA/tgt
Rome Odunze◄
0.18 EPA/tgt
T.J. Hockenson
0.17 EPA/tgt
Colston Loveland◄
0.47 EPA/tgt
Bad
11.0% sack rate
Elite◄
4.0% sack rate
Caleb Banks◄
no 2025 data
Grady Jarrett
0.3 disrupt/gm
Levi Drake Rodriguez
no 2025 data
Montez Sweat◄
0.9 press/gm
Eric Wilson◄
1.1 impact/gm
Devin Bush
0.9 impact/gm
Byron Murphy Jr.◄
0.4 cover/gm
Cam Lewis
0.2 cover/gm
Joshua Metellus◄
0.6 cover/gm
Xavier Woods
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
SF
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
GB
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Brock Purdy
0.13 EPA/att
Jordan Love◄
0.18 EPA/att
Christian McCaffrey◄
0.04 EPA/tch
MarShawn Lloyd
no 2025 data
Mike Evans
0.06 EPA/tgt
Christian Watson◄
0.38 EPA/tgt
George Kittle
0.53 EPA/tgt
Tucker Kraft◄
0.62 EPA/tgt
Average
4.5% sack rate
Average◄
5.6% sack rate
Osa Odighizuwa◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Javon Hargrave
0.4 disrupt/gm
Keion White
0.2 press/gm
Karl Brooks◄
no 2025 data
Luke Gifford
0.1 impact/gm
Edgerrin Cooper◄
0.6 impact/gm
Deommodore Lenoir
0.3 cover/gm
Keisean Nixon◄
0.7 cover/gm
Ji'Ayir Brown
0.5 cover/gm
Evan Williams◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
BAL
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
LAC
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Lamar Jackson◄
0.04 EPA/att
Justin Herbert
0.02 EPA/att
Derrick Henry◄
0.02 EPA/tch
Omarion Hampton
-0.01 EPA/tch
Zay Flowers◄
0.32 EPA/tgt
Ladd McConkey
0.05 EPA/tgt
Mark Andrews
0.02 EPA/tgt
Charlie Kolar◄
0.15 EPA/tgt
Good◄
9.6% sack rate
Bad
9.5% sack rate
Travis Jones◄
0.7 disrupt/gm
Dalvin Tomlinson
no 2025 data
Calais Campbell
0.7 press/gm
Teair Tart◄
no 2025 data
Roquan Smith
0.7 impact/gm
Daiyan Henley◄
0.8 impact/gm
Nate Wiggins◄
0.7 cover/gm
Cam Hart
0.5 cover/gm
Malaki Starks
0.5 cover/gm
Derwin James Jr.◄
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
ARI
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
SEA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Jacoby Brissett
-0.00 EPA/att
Sam Darnold◄
0.11 EPA/att
Jeremiyah Love
no 2025 data
Brady Russell◄
-0.01 EPA/tch
Marvin Harrison Jr.
0.31 EPA/tgt
Jaxon Smith-Njigba◄
0.47 EPA/tgt
Trey McBride◄
0.39 EPA/tgt
AJ Barner
0.32 EPA/tgt
Bad
8.3% sack rate
Average◄
5.3% sack rate
Roy Lopez
0.4 disrupt/gm
Byron Murphy II◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Josh Sweat
no 2025 data
Leonard Williams
0.8 press/gm
Jack Gibbens
0.7 impact/gm
DeMarcus Lawrence◄
0.8 impact/gm
Denzel Burke◄
0.7 cover/gm
Josh Jobe
0.6 cover/gm
Budda Baker
0.5 cover/gm
Ty Okada◄
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
TB
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
NYG
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Baker Mayfield
0.00 EPA/att
Jaxson Dart◄
0.01 EPA/att
Bucky Irving
-0.10 EPA/tch
Cam Skattebo◄
-0.05 EPA/tch
Emeka Egbuka◄
0.05 EPA/tgt
Malik Nabers
0.04 EPA/tgt
Cade Otton
0.03 EPA/tgt
Isaiah Likely◄
0.10 EPA/tgt
Average◄
6.4% sack rate
Bad
8.4% sack rate
Vita Vea◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
DJ Reader
0.1 disrupt/gm
Calijah Kancey◄
no 2025 data
Shelby Harris
0.2 press/gm
Yaya Diaby
0.9 impact/gm
Brian Burns◄
1.8 impact/gm
Jacob Parrish
0.4 cover/gm
Dru Phillips◄
0.6 cover/gm
Antoine Winfield Jr.◄
0.6 cover/gm
Tyler Nubin
0.3 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
Winner accuracy by grade, 1070 games. A high grade means a clearer mismatch — but the books know it too, so higher accuracy here does not mean a betting edge.
All validated trends · out-of-sample (2020–2026)
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