We simulate every NFL game on opponent-adjusted net EPA — offense and defense on both sides set the projected margin, scoring rates set the total — then post only the handful we have the most conviction in. Every posted game gets a grade and a projected score, and every one is graded against the real result.
Graded games
75.9%
the games we post · B+ or better
Full slate
62.5%
every game · n=1070
Market
67.4%
closing line · it’s better
Margin error
10.5
points, full slate
Accuracy is measured against the actual final score — did we pick the winner, and how many points off was the margin — not against the betting line. Across 2019–2025 the simulator calls 62.5% of all games straight up. The market’s closing line calls 67.4% — the NFL is the most efficient market in sports, so the full slate is worse than the market and we say so. It is a prediction tool, not a betting edge: it does not beat the spread. Analysis and entertainment, 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.
Board went 1-0 · full slate 11-3 straight up
Our 1 highest-conviction calls out of 14 games this week. We post at most 6, and nothing below a B+ — a thin week posts fewer rather than padding the board.
JAX
DET
19
30
Offense
DET
Defense
DET
Called it ✓
JAX
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
DET
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
Every game we simulated this week, highest conviction first. The board above is only the ones that cleared B+— here’s the whole week so nothing’s hidden.
JAX
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
DET
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
Trevor Lawrence
0.05 EPA/att
Jared Goff
The grade is our conviction in our own call — how big the projected margin is. Here is how each grade actually performed across 2019–2025:
Net EPA — opponent-adjusted expected points added on offense and defense, both sides of the ball — sets the projected margin. Scoring rates set the total. Ratings are computed as of that week’s kickoff, using only games already played, so nothing is graded with hindsight. Early in the season a team carries its prior-year rating until it has enough games to stand on its own.
It does not beat the spread. The NFL market is the sharpest in sports. We publish this because the projection and the matchup are interesting and we grade ourselves honestly against the real score — not because it prints money.
Also on our board
Separate from the simulator: situational trends mined from 1999–2026 seasons and validated out-of-sample. Only the ones that actually hold up.
The Sizzlin NFL Simulator is analysis and entertainment — not betting advice or a guaranteed outcome. 21+. 1-800-GAMBLER.
Trevor Lawrence
0.05 EPA/att
Jared Goff◄
0.14 EPA/att
Bhayshul Tuten
-0.03 EPA/tch
Jahmyr Gibbs◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Brian Thomas Jr.
0.14 EPA/tgt
Amon-Ra St. Brown◄
0.28 EPA/tgt
Brenton Strange
0.40 EPA/tgt
Sam LaPorta◄
0.54 EPA/tgt
Bad
6.8% sack rate
Good◄
6.3% sack rate
DaVon Hamilton◄
0.2 disrupt/gm
Tyleik Williams
0.2 disrupt/gm
Josh Hines-Allen
1.0 press/gm
Aidan Hutchinson◄
1.3 press/gm
Foyesade Oluokun◄
0.9 impact/gm
Derrick Barnes
0.7 impact/gm
Montaric Brown◄
0.7 cover/gm
D.J. Reed
0.5 cover/gm
Antonio Johnson◄
0.8 cover/gm
Chuck Clark
0.3 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
0.14 EPA/att
Bhayshul Tuten
-0.03 EPA/tch
Jahmyr Gibbs◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Brian Thomas Jr.
0.14 EPA/tgt
Amon-Ra St. Brown◄
0.28 EPA/tgt
Brenton Strange
0.40 EPA/tgt
Sam LaPorta◄
0.54 EPA/tgt
Bad
6.8% sack rate
Good◄
6.3% sack rate
DaVon Hamilton◄
0.2 disrupt/gm
Tyleik Williams
0.2 disrupt/gm
Josh Hines-Allen
1.0 press/gm
Aidan Hutchinson◄
1.3 press/gm
Foyesade Oluokun◄
0.9 impact/gm
Derrick Barnes
0.7 impact/gm
Montaric Brown◄
0.7 cover/gm
D.J. Reed
0.5 cover/gm
Antonio Johnson◄
0.8 cover/gm
Chuck Clark
0.3 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
SEA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
SF
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Sam Darnold
0.11 EPA/att
Brock Purdy◄
0.13 EPA/att
Brady Russell
-0.01 EPA/tch
Christian McCaffrey◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Jaxon Smith-Njigba◄
0.47 EPA/tgt
Mike Evans
0.06 EPA/tgt
AJ Barner
0.32 EPA/tgt
George Kittle◄
0.53 EPA/tgt
Average◄
5.3% sack rate
Average
4.5% sack rate
Byron Murphy II◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Osa Odighizuwa
0.8 disrupt/gm
Leonard Williams◄
0.8 press/gm
Keion White
0.2 press/gm
DeMarcus Lawrence◄
0.8 impact/gm
Luke Gifford
0.1 impact/gm
Josh Jobe◄
0.6 cover/gm
Deommodore Lenoir
0.3 cover/gm
Ty Okada
0.5 cover/gm
Ji'Ayir Brown◄
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
CIN
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
LAC
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Joe Burrow◄
0.08 EPA/att
Justin Herbert
0.02 EPA/att
Chase Brown
-0.04 EPA/tch
Omarion Hampton◄
-0.01 EPA/tch
Ja'Marr Chase◄
0.19 EPA/tgt
Ladd McConkey
0.05 EPA/tgt
Mike Gesicki
0.07 EPA/tgt
Charlie Kolar◄
0.15 EPA/tgt
Good◄
5.3% sack rate
Bad
9.5% sack rate
Dexter Lawrence II
0.3 disrupt/gm
Dalvin Tomlinson◄
no 2025 data
Boye Mafe
0.2 press/gm
Teair Tart◄
no 2025 data
Demetrius Knight Jr.◄
0.8 impact/gm
Daiyan Henley
0.8 impact/gm
Dax Hill
0.5 cover/gm
Cam Hart
0.5 cover/gm
Jordan Battle◄
0.7 cover/gm
Derwin James Jr.
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
CLE
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
NO
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Deshaun Watson◄
no 2025 data
Tyler Shough
0.00 EPA/att
Quinshon Judkins
-0.10 EPA/tch
Travis Etienne Jr.◄
-0.03 EPA/tch
Jerry Jeudy
-0.24 EPA/tgt
Chris Olave◄
0.19 EPA/tgt
Harold Fannin Jr.
0.01 EPA/tgt
Juwan Johnson◄
0.29 EPA/tgt
Bad◄
8.4% sack rate
Bad
7.7% sack rate
Mason Graham◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Davon Godchaux
0.1 disrupt/gm
Jared Verse◄
0.9 press/gm
Colby Wooden
0.2 press/gm
Carson Schwesinger
0.9 impact/gm
Kaden Elliss◄
1.0 impact/gm
Tyson Campbell
0.7 cover/gm
Kool-Aid McKinstry◄
0.9 cover/gm
Grant Delpit
0.4 cover/gm
Justin Reid◄
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
KC
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
BUF
OFF Run-heavy · under-center
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Patrick Mahomes
0.10 EPA/att
Josh Allen◄
0.11 EPA/att
Kenneth Walker III
-0.02 EPA/tch
James Cook III◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Rashee Rice◄
0.15 EPA/tgt
DJ Moore
0.12 EPA/tgt
Travis Kelce
0.32 EPA/tgt
Dalton Kincaid◄
0.58 EPA/tgt
Average
7.4% sack rate
Good◄
7.5% sack rate
Khyiris Tonga
0.1 disrupt/gm
Deone Walker◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
George Karlaftis
0.8 press/gm
T.J. Sanders
no 2025 data
Drue Tranquill◄
0.7 impact/gm
Greg Rousseau
0.7 impact/gm
L'Jarius Sneed
0.2 cover/gm
Dee Alford◄
0.8 cover/gm
Alohi Gilman
0.5 cover/gm
Cole Bishop◄
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
LV
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
MIA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Kirk Cousins
-0.00 EPA/att
Malik Willis◄
0.13 EPA/att
Ashton Jeanty
-0.20 EPA/tch
De'Von Achane◄
0.01 EPA/tch
Tre Tucker◄
0.18 EPA/tgt
Malik Washington
-0.10 EPA/tgt
Brock Bowers
0.22 EPA/tgt
Greg Dulcich◄
0.34 EPA/tgt
Bad
11.1% sack rate
Good◄
7.4% sack rate
Adam Butler◄
0.3 disrupt/gm
Jordan Phillips
0.2 disrupt/gm
Jonah Laulu
no 2025 data
Chop Robinson
no 2025 data
Quay Walker
0.9 impact/gm
Jordyn Brooks◄
1.2 impact/gm
Eric Stokes
0.2 cover/gm
Jason Marshall Jr.◄
0.3 cover/gm
Jeremy Chinn◄
0.3 cover/gm
Dante Trader Jr.
0.2 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
IND
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
NYJ
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Daniel Jones◄
0.11 EPA/att
Geno Smith
-0.12 EPA/att
Jonathan Taylor◄
0.07 EPA/tch
Breece Hall
-0.04 EPA/tch
Alec Pierce◄
0.49 EPA/tgt
Garrett Wilson
-0.02 EPA/tgt
Tyler Warren◄
0.12 EPA/tgt
Mason Taylor
0.12 EPA/tgt
Good◄
5.0% sack rate
Bad
10.8% sack rate
Grover Stewart◄
0.3 disrupt/gm
Harrison Phillips
0.2 disrupt/gm
Laiatu Latu
0.9 press/gm
Will McDonald IV◄
0.9 press/gm
Akeem Davis-Gaither
0.5 impact/gm
Jamien Sherwood◄
1.0 impact/gm
Sauce Gardner
0.5 cover/gm
Nahshon Wright◄
0.8 cover/gm
Cam Bynum◄
0.7 cover/gm
Dane Belton
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
MIN
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
TEN
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Kyler Murray◄
0.02 EPA/att
Cam Ward
-0.15 EPA/att
Aaron Jones Sr.◄
-0.04 EPA/tch
Tony Pollard
-0.10 EPA/tch
Justin Jefferson
-0.08 EPA/tgt
Carnell Tate◄
no 2025 data
T.J. Hockenson◄
0.17 EPA/tgt
Gunnar Helm
0.05 EPA/tgt
Bad
11.0% sack rate
Bad◄
8.9% sack rate
Caleb Banks
no 2025 data
Jeffery Simmons◄
1.5 disrupt/gm
Levi Drake Rodriguez◄
no 2025 data
Jermaine Johnson II
0.3 press/gm
Eric Wilson◄
1.1 impact/gm
Cody Barton
0.7 impact/gm
Byron Murphy Jr.
0.4 cover/gm
Alontae Taylor◄
0.6 cover/gm
Joshua Metellus◄
0.6 cover/gm
Amani Hooker
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
ATL
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
DEN
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
Michael Penix Jr.
0.01 EPA/att
Bo Nix◄
0.08 EPA/att
Bijan Robinson◄
0.03 EPA/tch
J.K. Dobbins
-0.00 EPA/tch
Drake London
0.18 EPA/tgt
Jaylen Waddle◄
0.27 EPA/tgt
Kyle Pitts Sr.◄
0.18 EPA/tgt
Evan Engram
0.04 EPA/tgt
Elite
4.6% sack rate
Elite◄
3.6% sack rate
Gervon Dexter Sr.◄
0.7 disrupt/gm
D.J. Jones
0.4 disrupt/gm
Brandon Dorlus
0.8 press/gm
Zach Allen◄
1.1 press/gm
Divine Deablo
0.7 impact/gm
Nik Bonitto◄
1.2 impact/gm
A.J. Terrell Jr.
0.5 cover/gm
Riley Moss◄
0.8 cover/gm
Jessie Bates III
0.6 cover/gm
Talanoa Hufanga◄
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
WAS
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
PHI
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · four-man rush
Jayden Daniels
-0.01 EPA/att
Jalen Hurts◄
0.05 EPA/att
Jacory Croskey-Merritt◄
-0.02 EPA/tch
Saquon Barkley
-0.08 EPA/tch
Terry McLaurin
0.36 EPA/tgt
DeVonta Smith◄
0.38 EPA/tgt
Chig Okonkwo
0.13 EPA/tgt
Dallas Goedert◄
0.36 EPA/tgt
Good◄
7.3% sack rate
Average
6.6% sack rate
Daron Payne◄
0.6 disrupt/gm
Average
no data
Tim Settle
no 2025 data
Jalen Carter
no 2025 data
Odafe Oweh
0.7 impact/gm
Zack Baun◄
1.0 impact/gm
Mike Sainristil◄
0.7 cover/gm
Quinyon Mitchell
0.7 cover/gm
Nick Cross◄
0.5 cover/gm
Andrew Mukuba
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
HOU
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
DAL
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
C.J. Stroud
0.08 EPA/att
Dak Prescott◄
0.15 EPA/att
David Montgomery◄
0.02 EPA/tch
Javonte Williams
-0.03 EPA/tch
Nico Collins◄
0.26 EPA/tgt
CeeDee Lamb
0.20 EPA/tgt
Dalton Schultz◄
0.29 EPA/tgt
Jake Ferguson
0.16 EPA/tgt
Average
5.1% sack rate
Elite◄
4.7% sack rate
Tommy Togiai◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Otito Ogbonnia
0.3 disrupt/gm
Will Anderson Jr.◄
1.2 press/gm
Quinnen Williams
no 2025 data
Henry To'oTo'o
0.8 impact/gm
Dee Winters◄
0.8 impact/gm
Kamari Lassiter◄
1.0 cover/gm
Cobie Durant
0.5 cover/gm
Reed Blankenship◄
0.4 cover/gm
Malik Hooker
0.2 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
GB
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
CHI
OFF Balanced · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
Jordan Love◄
0.18 EPA/att
Caleb Williams
0.06 EPA/att
MarShawn Lloyd
no 2025 data
D'Andre Swift◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Christian Watson◄
0.38 EPA/tgt
Rome Odunze
0.18 EPA/tgt
Tucker Kraft◄
0.62 EPA/tgt
Colston Loveland
0.47 EPA/tgt
Average
5.6% sack rate
Elite◄
4.0% sack rate
Javon Hargrave◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Grady Jarrett
0.3 disrupt/gm
Karl Brooks
no 2025 data
Montez Sweat◄
0.9 press/gm
Edgerrin Cooper
0.6 impact/gm
Devin Bush◄
0.9 impact/gm
Keisean Nixon◄
0.7 cover/gm
Cam Lewis
0.2 cover/gm
Evan Williams◄
0.6 cover/gm
Xavier Woods
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
BAL
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
PIT
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Lamar Jackson
0.04 EPA/att
Aaron Rodgers◄
0.04 EPA/att
Derrick Henry
0.02 EPA/tch
Jaylen Warren◄
0.03 EPA/tch
Zay Flowers◄
0.32 EPA/tgt
DK Metcalf
0.26 EPA/tgt
Mark Andrews
0.02 EPA/tgt
Darnell Washington◄
0.24 EPA/tgt
Good◄
9.6% sack rate
Good
5.3% sack rate
Travis Jones◄
0.7 disrupt/gm
Keeanu Benton
0.6 disrupt/gm
Calais Campbell◄
0.7 press/gm
Cameron Heyward
0.4 press/gm
Roquan Smith
0.7 impact/gm
Payton Wilson◄
0.7 impact/gm
Nate Wiggins◄
0.7 cover/gm
Jalen Ramsey
0.4 cover/gm
Malaki Starks
0.5 cover/gm
Jaquan Brisker◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
LA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
NE
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Matthew Stafford
0.19 EPA/att
Drake Maye◄
0.25 EPA/att
Kyren Williams◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Rhamondre Stevenson
-0.02 EPA/tch
Puka Nacua◄
0.59 EPA/tgt
Romeo Doubs
0.30 EPA/tgt
Colby Parkinson
0.17 EPA/tgt
Hunter Henry◄
0.36 EPA/tgt
Elite◄
3.7% sack rate
Average
8.7% sack rate
Poona Ford◄
0.3 disrupt/gm
Cory Durden
0.2 disrupt/gm
Kobie Turner
0.6 press/gm
Christian Barmore◄
no 2025 data
Byron Young◄
1.1 impact/gm
Dre'Mont Jones
0.6 impact/gm
Jaylen Watson◄
0.4 cover/gm
Carlton Davis III
0.4 cover/gm
Kamren Kinchens◄
0.6 cover/gm
Craig Woodson
0.3 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
Winner accuracy by grade, 1070 games. A high grade means a clearer mismatch — but the books know it too, so higher accuracy here does not mean a betting edge.
All validated trends · out-of-sample (2020–2026)
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