We simulate every NFL game on opponent-adjusted net EPA — offense and defense on both sides set the projected margin, scoring rates set the total — then post only the handful we have the most conviction in. Every posted game gets a grade and a projected score, and every one is graded against the real result.
Graded games
75.9%
the games we post · B+ or better
Full slate
62.5%
every game · n=1070
Market
67.4%
closing line · it’s better
Margin error
10.5
points, full slate
Accuracy is measured against the actual final score — did we pick the winner, and how many points off was the margin — not against the betting line. Across 2019–2025 the simulator calls 62.5% of all games straight up. The market’s closing line calls 67.4% — the NFL is the most efficient market in sports, so the full slate is worse than the market and we say so. It is a prediction tool, not a betting edge: it does not beat the spread. Analysis and entertainment, 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.
Board went 1-0 · full slate 10-4 straight up
Our 1 highest-conviction calls out of 14 games this week. We post at most 6, and nothing below a B+ — a thin week posts fewer rather than padding the board.
TEN
LAC
15
24
Offense
LAC
Defense
LAC
Called it ✓
TEN
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
LAC
Pass-heavy · mixed sets
Every game we simulated this week, highest conviction first. The board above is only the ones that cleared B+— here’s the whole week so nothing’s hidden.
TEN
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
LAC
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Cam Ward
-0.15 EPA/att
Justin Herbert◄
The grade is our conviction in our own call — how big the projected margin is. Here is how each grade actually performed across 2019–2025:
Net EPA — opponent-adjusted expected points added on offense and defense, both sides of the ball — sets the projected margin. Scoring rates set the total. Ratings are computed as of that week’s kickoff, using only games already played, so nothing is graded with hindsight. Early in the season a team carries its prior-year rating until it has enough games to stand on its own.
It does not beat the spread. The NFL market is the sharpest in sports. We publish this because the projection and the matchup are interesting and we grade ourselves honestly against the real score — not because it prints money.
Also on our board
Separate from the simulator: situational trends mined from 1999–2026 seasons and validated out-of-sample. Only the ones that actually hold up.
The Sizzlin NFL Simulator is analysis and entertainment — not betting advice or a guaranteed outcome. 21+. 1-800-GAMBLER.
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Cam Ward
-0.15 EPA/att
Justin Herbert◄
0.02 EPA/att
Tony Pollard
-0.10 EPA/tch
Omarion Hampton◄
-0.01 EPA/tch
Carnell Tate◄
no 2025 data
Ladd McConkey
0.05 EPA/tgt
Gunnar Helm
0.05 EPA/tgt
Charlie Kolar◄
0.15 EPA/tgt
Bad
8.9% sack rate
Bad◄
9.5% sack rate
Jeffery Simmons◄
1.5 disrupt/gm
Dalvin Tomlinson
no 2025 data
Jermaine Johnson II
0.3 press/gm
Teair Tart◄
no 2025 data
Cody Barton
0.7 impact/gm
Daiyan Henley◄
0.8 impact/gm
Alontae Taylor◄
0.6 cover/gm
Cam Hart
0.5 cover/gm
Amani Hooker
0.5 cover/gm
Derwin James Jr.◄
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
0.02 EPA/att
Tony Pollard
-0.10 EPA/tch
Omarion Hampton◄
-0.01 EPA/tch
Carnell Tate◄
no 2025 data
Ladd McConkey
0.05 EPA/tgt
Gunnar Helm
0.05 EPA/tgt
Charlie Kolar◄
0.15 EPA/tgt
Bad
8.9% sack rate
Bad◄
9.5% sack rate
Jeffery Simmons◄
1.5 disrupt/gm
Dalvin Tomlinson
no 2025 data
Jermaine Johnson II
0.3 press/gm
Teair Tart◄
no 2025 data
Cody Barton
0.7 impact/gm
Daiyan Henley◄
0.8 impact/gm
Alontae Taylor◄
0.6 cover/gm
Cam Hart
0.5 cover/gm
Amani Hooker
0.5 cover/gm
Derwin James Jr.◄
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
NE
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
CHI
OFF Balanced · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
Drake Maye◄
0.25 EPA/att
Caleb Williams
0.06 EPA/att
Rhamondre Stevenson
-0.02 EPA/tch
D'Andre Swift◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Romeo Doubs◄
0.30 EPA/tgt
Rome Odunze
0.18 EPA/tgt
Hunter Henry
0.36 EPA/tgt
Colston Loveland◄
0.47 EPA/tgt
Average
8.7% sack rate
Elite◄
4.0% sack rate
Cory Durden
0.2 disrupt/gm
Grady Jarrett◄
0.3 disrupt/gm
Christian Barmore
no 2025 data
Montez Sweat◄
0.9 press/gm
Dre'Mont Jones
0.6 impact/gm
Devin Bush◄
0.9 impact/gm
Carlton Davis III◄
0.4 cover/gm
Cam Lewis
0.2 cover/gm
Craig Woodson
0.3 cover/gm
Xavier Woods◄
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
CIN
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
BAL
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Joe Burrow◄
0.08 EPA/att
Lamar Jackson
0.04 EPA/att
Chase Brown
-0.04 EPA/tch
Derrick Henry◄
0.02 EPA/tch
Ja'Marr Chase
0.19 EPA/tgt
Zay Flowers◄
0.32 EPA/tgt
Mike Gesicki◄
0.07 EPA/tgt
Mark Andrews
0.02 EPA/tgt
Good
5.3% sack rate
Good◄
9.6% sack rate
Dexter Lawrence II
0.3 disrupt/gm
Travis Jones◄
0.7 disrupt/gm
Boye Mafe
0.2 press/gm
Calais Campbell◄
0.7 press/gm
Demetrius Knight Jr.◄
0.8 impact/gm
Roquan Smith
0.7 impact/gm
Dax Hill
0.5 cover/gm
Nate Wiggins◄
0.7 cover/gm
Jordan Battle◄
0.7 cover/gm
Malaki Starks
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
PIT
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
WAS
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Aaron Rodgers◄
0.04 EPA/att
Jayden Daniels
-0.01 EPA/att
Jaylen Warren◄
0.03 EPA/tch
Jacory Croskey-Merritt
-0.02 EPA/tch
DK Metcalf
0.26 EPA/tgt
Terry McLaurin◄
0.36 EPA/tgt
Darnell Washington◄
0.24 EPA/tgt
Chig Okonkwo
0.13 EPA/tgt
Good
5.3% sack rate
Good◄
7.3% sack rate
Keeanu Benton◄
0.6 disrupt/gm
Daron Payne
0.6 disrupt/gm
Cameron Heyward
0.4 press/gm
Tim Settle◄
no 2025 data
Payton Wilson◄
0.7 impact/gm
Odafe Oweh
0.7 impact/gm
Jalen Ramsey
0.4 cover/gm
Mike Sainristil◄
0.7 cover/gm
Jaquan Brisker◄
0.6 cover/gm
Nick Cross
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
MIA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
LA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Malik Willis
0.13 EPA/att
Matthew Stafford◄
0.19 EPA/att
De'Von Achane
0.01 EPA/tch
Kyren Williams◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Malik Washington
-0.10 EPA/tgt
Puka Nacua◄
0.59 EPA/tgt
Greg Dulcich◄
0.34 EPA/tgt
Colby Parkinson
0.17 EPA/tgt
Good
7.4% sack rate
Elite◄
3.7% sack rate
Jordan Phillips
0.2 disrupt/gm
Poona Ford◄
0.3 disrupt/gm
Chop Robinson◄
no 2025 data
Kobie Turner
0.6 press/gm
Jordyn Brooks◄
1.2 impact/gm
Byron Young
1.1 impact/gm
Jason Marshall Jr.
0.3 cover/gm
Jaylen Watson◄
0.4 cover/gm
Dante Trader Jr.
0.2 cover/gm
Kamren Kinchens◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
DEN
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
KC
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Bo Nix
0.08 EPA/att
Patrick Mahomes◄
0.10 EPA/att
J.K. Dobbins◄
-0.00 EPA/tch
Kenneth Walker III
-0.02 EPA/tch
Jaylen Waddle◄
0.27 EPA/tgt
Rashee Rice
0.15 EPA/tgt
Evan Engram
0.04 EPA/tgt
Travis Kelce◄
0.32 EPA/tgt
Elite◄
3.6% sack rate
Average
7.4% sack rate
D.J. Jones◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Khyiris Tonga
0.1 disrupt/gm
Zach Allen◄
1.1 press/gm
George Karlaftis
0.8 press/gm
Nik Bonitto◄
1.2 impact/gm
Drue Tranquill
0.7 impact/gm
Riley Moss◄
0.8 cover/gm
L'Jarius Sneed
0.2 cover/gm
Talanoa Hufanga◄
0.7 cover/gm
Alohi Gilman
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
MIN
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
JAX
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Kyler Murray
0.02 EPA/att
Trevor Lawrence◄
0.05 EPA/att
Aaron Jones Sr.
-0.04 EPA/tch
Bhayshul Tuten◄
-0.03 EPA/tch
Justin Jefferson
-0.08 EPA/tgt
Brian Thomas Jr.◄
0.14 EPA/tgt
T.J. Hockenson
0.17 EPA/tgt
Brenton Strange◄
0.40 EPA/tgt
Bad
11.0% sack rate
Bad◄
6.8% sack rate
Caleb Banks◄
no 2025 data
DaVon Hamilton
0.2 disrupt/gm
Levi Drake Rodriguez
no 2025 data
Josh Hines-Allen◄
1.0 press/gm
Eric Wilson◄
1.1 impact/gm
Foyesade Oluokun
0.9 impact/gm
Byron Murphy Jr.
0.4 cover/gm
Montaric Brown◄
0.7 cover/gm
Joshua Metellus
0.6 cover/gm
Antonio Johnson◄
0.8 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
PHI
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · four-man rush
DAL
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Jalen Hurts
0.05 EPA/att
Dak Prescott◄
0.15 EPA/att
Saquon Barkley
-0.08 EPA/tch
Javonte Williams◄
-0.03 EPA/tch
DeVonta Smith◄
0.38 EPA/tgt
CeeDee Lamb
0.20 EPA/tgt
Dallas Goedert◄
0.36 EPA/tgt
Jake Ferguson
0.16 EPA/tgt
Average
6.6% sack rate
Elite◄
4.7% sack rate
Average◄
no data
Otito Ogbonnia
0.3 disrupt/gm
Jalen Carter
no 2025 data
Quinnen Williams
no 2025 data
Zack Baun◄
1.0 impact/gm
Dee Winters
0.8 impact/gm
Quinyon Mitchell◄
0.7 cover/gm
Cobie Durant
0.5 cover/gm
Andrew Mukuba◄
0.4 cover/gm
Malik Hooker
0.2 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
NYG
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
CAR
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Jaxson Dart◄
0.01 EPA/att
Bryce Young
-0.03 EPA/att
Cam Skattebo◄
-0.05 EPA/tch
Chuba Hubbard
-0.05 EPA/tch
Malik Nabers
0.04 EPA/tgt
Tetairoa McMillan◄
0.17 EPA/tgt
Isaiah Likely
0.10 EPA/tgt
Tommy Tremble◄
0.15 EPA/tgt
Bad
8.4% sack rate
Average◄
6.4% sack rate
DJ Reader
0.1 disrupt/gm
Lee Hunter◄
no 2025 data
Shelby Harris
0.2 press/gm
Derrick Brown◄
no 2025 data
Brian Burns◄
1.8 impact/gm
Bobby Okereke
0.7 impact/gm
Dru Phillips
0.6 cover/gm
Mike Jackson◄
1.0 cover/gm
Tyler Nubin
0.3 cover/gm
Nick Scott◄
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
BUF
OFF Run-heavy · under-center
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
IND
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Josh Allen
0.11 EPA/att
Daniel Jones◄
0.11 EPA/att
James Cook III
0.04 EPA/tch
Jonathan Taylor◄
0.07 EPA/tch
DJ Moore
0.12 EPA/tgt
Alec Pierce◄
0.49 EPA/tgt
Dalton Kincaid◄
0.58 EPA/tgt
Tyler Warren
0.12 EPA/tgt
Good
7.5% sack rate
Good◄
5.0% sack rate
Deone Walker◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Grover Stewart
0.3 disrupt/gm
T.J. Sanders
no 2025 data
Laiatu Latu◄
0.9 press/gm
Greg Rousseau◄
0.7 impact/gm
Akeem Davis-Gaither
0.5 impact/gm
Dee Alford◄
0.8 cover/gm
Sauce Gardner
0.5 cover/gm
Cole Bishop
0.7 cover/gm
Cam Bynum◄
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
ATL
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
NO
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Michael Penix Jr.◄
0.01 EPA/att
Tyler Shough
0.00 EPA/att
Bijan Robinson◄
0.03 EPA/tch
Travis Etienne Jr.
-0.03 EPA/tch
Drake London
0.18 EPA/tgt
Chris Olave◄
0.19 EPA/tgt
Kyle Pitts Sr.
0.18 EPA/tgt
Juwan Johnson◄
0.29 EPA/tgt
Elite◄
4.6% sack rate
Bad
7.7% sack rate
Gervon Dexter Sr.◄
0.7 disrupt/gm
Davon Godchaux
0.1 disrupt/gm
Brandon Dorlus◄
0.8 press/gm
Colby Wooden
0.2 press/gm
Divine Deablo
0.7 impact/gm
Kaden Elliss◄
1.0 impact/gm
A.J. Terrell Jr.
0.5 cover/gm
Kool-Aid McKinstry◄
0.9 cover/gm
Jessie Bates III◄
0.6 cover/gm
Justin Reid
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
NYJ
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
ARI
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Geno Smith
-0.12 EPA/att
Jacoby Brissett◄
-0.00 EPA/att
Breece Hall
-0.04 EPA/tch
Jeremiyah Love◄
no 2025 data
Garrett Wilson
-0.02 EPA/tgt
Marvin Harrison Jr.◄
0.31 EPA/tgt
Mason Taylor
0.12 EPA/tgt
Trey McBride◄
0.39 EPA/tgt
Bad
10.8% sack rate
Bad◄
8.3% sack rate
Harrison Phillips
0.2 disrupt/gm
Roy Lopez◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Will McDonald IV◄
0.9 press/gm
Josh Sweat
no 2025 data
Jamien Sherwood◄
1.0 impact/gm
Jack Gibbens
0.7 impact/gm
Nahshon Wright◄
0.8 cover/gm
Denzel Burke
0.7 cover/gm
Dane Belton◄
0.5 cover/gm
Budda Baker
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
DET
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
HOU
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Jared Goff◄
0.14 EPA/att
C.J. Stroud
0.08 EPA/att
Jahmyr Gibbs◄
0.04 EPA/tch
David Montgomery
0.02 EPA/tch
Amon-Ra St. Brown◄
0.28 EPA/tgt
Nico Collins
0.26 EPA/tgt
Sam LaPorta◄
0.54 EPA/tgt
Dalton Schultz
0.29 EPA/tgt
Good◄
6.3% sack rate
Average
5.1% sack rate
Tyleik Williams
0.2 disrupt/gm
Tommy Togiai◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Aidan Hutchinson◄
1.3 press/gm
Will Anderson Jr.
1.2 press/gm
Derrick Barnes
0.7 impact/gm
Henry To'oTo'o◄
0.8 impact/gm
D.J. Reed
0.5 cover/gm
Kamari Lassiter◄
1.0 cover/gm
Chuck Clark
0.3 cover/gm
Reed Blankenship◄
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
SF
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
TB
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Brock Purdy◄
0.13 EPA/att
Baker Mayfield
0.00 EPA/att
Christian McCaffrey◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Bucky Irving
-0.10 EPA/tch
Mike Evans◄
0.06 EPA/tgt
Emeka Egbuka
0.05 EPA/tgt
George Kittle◄
0.53 EPA/tgt
Cade Otton
0.03 EPA/tgt
Average
4.5% sack rate
Average◄
6.4% sack rate
Osa Odighizuwa◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Vita Vea
0.8 disrupt/gm
Keion White
0.2 press/gm
Calijah Kancey◄
no 2025 data
Luke Gifford
0.1 impact/gm
Yaya Diaby◄
0.9 impact/gm
Deommodore Lenoir
0.3 cover/gm
Jacob Parrish◄
0.4 cover/gm
Ji'Ayir Brown
0.5 cover/gm
Antoine Winfield Jr.◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
Winner accuracy by grade, 1070 games. A high grade means a clearer mismatch — but the books know it too, so higher accuracy here does not mean a betting edge.
All validated trends · out-of-sample (2020–2026)
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