We simulate every NFL game on opponent-adjusted net EPA — offense and defense on both sides set the projected margin, scoring rates set the total — then post only the handful we have the most conviction in. Every posted game gets a grade and a projected score, and every one is graded against the real result.
Graded games
75.9%
the games we post · B+ or better
Full slate
62.5%
every game · n=1070
Market
67.4%
closing line · it’s better
Margin error
10.5
points, full slate
Accuracy is measured against the actual final score — did we pick the winner, and how many points off was the margin — not against the betting line. Across 2019–2025 the simulator calls 62.5% of all games straight up. The market’s closing line calls 67.4% — the NFL is the most efficient market in sports, so the full slate is worse than the market and we say so. It is a prediction tool, not a betting edge: it does not beat the spread. Analysis and entertainment, 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.
Board went 3-0 · full slate 11-5 straight up
Our 3 highest-conviction calls out of 16 games this week. We post at most 6, and nothing below a B+ — a thin week posts fewer rather than padding the board.
NYJ
SF
15
26
Offense
SF
Defense
NYJ
Called it ✓
NYJ
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
SF
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Every game we simulated this week, highest conviction first. The board above is only the ones that cleared B+— here’s the whole week so nothing’s hidden.
NYJ
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
SF
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Geno Smith
-0.12 EPA/att
Brock Purdy◄
The grade is our conviction in our own call — how big the projected margin is. Here is how each grade actually performed across 2019–2025:
Net EPA — opponent-adjusted expected points added on offense and defense, both sides of the ball — sets the projected margin. Scoring rates set the total. Ratings are computed as of that week’s kickoff, using only games already played, so nothing is graded with hindsight. Early in the season a team carries its prior-year rating until it has enough games to stand on its own.
It does not beat the spread. The NFL market is the sharpest in sports. We publish this because the projection and the matchup are interesting and we grade ourselves honestly against the real score — not because it prints money.
Also on our board
Separate from the simulator: situational trends mined from 1999–2026 seasons and validated out-of-sample. Only the ones that actually hold up.
The Sizzlin NFL Simulator is analysis and entertainment — not betting advice or a guaranteed outcome. 21+. 1-800-GAMBLER.
Geno Smith
-0.12 EPA/att
Brock Purdy◄
0.13 EPA/att
Breece Hall
-0.04 EPA/tch
Christian McCaffrey◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Garrett Wilson
-0.02 EPA/tgt
Mike Evans◄
0.06 EPA/tgt
Mason Taylor
0.12 EPA/tgt
George Kittle◄
0.53 EPA/tgt
Bad
10.8% sack rate
Average◄
4.5% sack rate
Harrison Phillips
0.2 disrupt/gm
Osa Odighizuwa◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Will McDonald IV◄
0.9 press/gm
Keion White
0.2 press/gm
Jamien Sherwood◄
1.0 impact/gm
Luke Gifford
0.1 impact/gm
Nahshon Wright◄
0.8 cover/gm
Deommodore Lenoir
0.3 cover/gm
Dane Belton
0.5 cover/gm
Ji'Ayir Brown◄
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
NFL · Members
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0.13 EPA/att
Breece Hall
-0.04 EPA/tch
Christian McCaffrey◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Garrett Wilson
-0.02 EPA/tgt
Mike Evans◄
0.06 EPA/tgt
Mason Taylor
0.12 EPA/tgt
George Kittle◄
0.53 EPA/tgt
Bad
10.8% sack rate
Average◄
4.5% sack rate
Harrison Phillips
0.2 disrupt/gm
Osa Odighizuwa◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Will McDonald IV◄
0.9 press/gm
Keion White
0.2 press/gm
Jamien Sherwood◄
1.0 impact/gm
Luke Gifford
0.1 impact/gm
Nahshon Wright◄
0.8 cover/gm
Deommodore Lenoir
0.3 cover/gm
Dane Belton
0.5 cover/gm
Ji'Ayir Brown◄
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
ARI
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
BUF
OFF Run-heavy · under-center
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Jacoby Brissett
-0.00 EPA/att
Josh Allen◄
0.11 EPA/att
Jeremiyah Love
no 2025 data
James Cook III◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Marvin Harrison Jr.◄
0.31 EPA/tgt
DJ Moore
0.12 EPA/tgt
Trey McBride
0.39 EPA/tgt
Dalton Kincaid◄
0.58 EPA/tgt
Bad
8.3% sack rate
Good◄
7.5% sack rate
Roy Lopez
0.4 disrupt/gm
Deone Walker◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Josh Sweat
no 2025 data
T.J. Sanders
no 2025 data
Jack Gibbens◄
0.7 impact/gm
Greg Rousseau
0.7 impact/gm
Denzel Burke
0.7 cover/gm
Dee Alford◄
0.8 cover/gm
Budda Baker
0.5 cover/gm
Cole Bishop◄
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
CAR
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
NO
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Bryce Young
-0.03 EPA/att
Tyler Shough◄
0.00 EPA/att
Chuba Hubbard
-0.05 EPA/tch
Travis Etienne Jr.◄
-0.03 EPA/tch
Tetairoa McMillan
0.17 EPA/tgt
Chris Olave◄
0.19 EPA/tgt
Tommy Tremble
0.15 EPA/tgt
Juwan Johnson◄
0.29 EPA/tgt
Average◄
6.4% sack rate
Bad
7.7% sack rate
Lee Hunter◄
no 2025 data
Davon Godchaux
0.1 disrupt/gm
Derrick Brown◄
no 2025 data
Colby Wooden
0.2 press/gm
Bobby Okereke
0.7 impact/gm
Kaden Elliss◄
1.0 impact/gm
Mike Jackson◄
1.0 cover/gm
Kool-Aid McKinstry
0.9 cover/gm
Nick Scott
0.4 cover/gm
Justin Reid◄
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
WAS
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
TB
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Jayden Daniels
-0.01 EPA/att
Baker Mayfield◄
0.00 EPA/att
Jacory Croskey-Merritt◄
-0.02 EPA/tch
Bucky Irving
-0.10 EPA/tch
Terry McLaurin◄
0.36 EPA/tgt
Emeka Egbuka
0.05 EPA/tgt
Chig Okonkwo◄
0.13 EPA/tgt
Cade Otton
0.03 EPA/tgt
Good◄
7.3% sack rate
Average
6.4% sack rate
Daron Payne
0.6 disrupt/gm
Vita Vea◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Tim Settle
no 2025 data
Calijah Kancey
no 2025 data
Odafe Oweh
0.7 impact/gm
Yaya Diaby◄
0.9 impact/gm
Mike Sainristil◄
0.7 cover/gm
Jacob Parrish
0.4 cover/gm
Nick Cross
0.5 cover/gm
Antoine Winfield Jr.◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
JAX
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
MIA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Trevor Lawrence
0.05 EPA/att
Malik Willis◄
0.13 EPA/att
Bhayshul Tuten
-0.03 EPA/tch
De'Von Achane◄
0.01 EPA/tch
Brian Thomas Jr.◄
0.14 EPA/tgt
Malik Washington
-0.10 EPA/tgt
Brenton Strange◄
0.40 EPA/tgt
Greg Dulcich
0.34 EPA/tgt
Bad
6.8% sack rate
Good◄
7.4% sack rate
DaVon Hamilton◄
0.2 disrupt/gm
Jordan Phillips
0.2 disrupt/gm
Josh Hines-Allen◄
1.0 press/gm
Chop Robinson
no 2025 data
Foyesade Oluokun
0.9 impact/gm
Jordyn Brooks◄
1.2 impact/gm
Montaric Brown◄
0.7 cover/gm
Jason Marshall Jr.
0.3 cover/gm
Antonio Johnson◄
0.8 cover/gm
Dante Trader Jr.
0.2 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
TEN
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
CHI
OFF Balanced · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
Cam Ward
-0.15 EPA/att
Caleb Williams◄
0.06 EPA/att
Tony Pollard
-0.10 EPA/tch
D'Andre Swift◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Carnell Tate◄
no 2025 data
Rome Odunze
0.18 EPA/tgt
Gunnar Helm
0.05 EPA/tgt
Colston Loveland◄
0.47 EPA/tgt
Bad
8.9% sack rate
Elite◄
4.0% sack rate
Jeffery Simmons◄
1.5 disrupt/gm
Grady Jarrett
0.3 disrupt/gm
Jermaine Johnson II
0.3 press/gm
Montez Sweat◄
0.9 press/gm
Cody Barton
0.7 impact/gm
Devin Bush◄
0.9 impact/gm
Alontae Taylor◄
0.6 cover/gm
Cam Lewis
0.2 cover/gm
Amani Hooker◄
0.5 cover/gm
Xavier Woods
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
NE
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
CIN
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Drake Maye◄
0.25 EPA/att
Joe Burrow
0.08 EPA/att
Rhamondre Stevenson◄
-0.02 EPA/tch
Chase Brown
-0.04 EPA/tch
Romeo Doubs◄
0.30 EPA/tgt
Ja'Marr Chase
0.19 EPA/tgt
Hunter Henry◄
0.36 EPA/tgt
Mike Gesicki
0.07 EPA/tgt
Average
8.7% sack rate
Good◄
5.3% sack rate
Cory Durden
0.2 disrupt/gm
Dexter Lawrence II◄
0.3 disrupt/gm
Christian Barmore◄
no 2025 data
Boye Mafe
0.2 press/gm
Dre'Mont Jones
0.6 impact/gm
Demetrius Knight Jr.◄
0.8 impact/gm
Carlton Davis III
0.4 cover/gm
Dax Hill◄
0.5 cover/gm
Craig Woodson
0.3 cover/gm
Jordan Battle◄
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
DEN
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
SEA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Bo Nix
0.08 EPA/att
Sam Darnold◄
0.11 EPA/att
J.K. Dobbins◄
-0.00 EPA/tch
Brady Russell
-0.01 EPA/tch
Jaylen Waddle
0.27 EPA/tgt
Jaxon Smith-Njigba◄
0.47 EPA/tgt
Evan Engram
0.04 EPA/tgt
AJ Barner◄
0.32 EPA/tgt
Elite◄
3.6% sack rate
Average
5.3% sack rate
D.J. Jones
0.4 disrupt/gm
Byron Murphy II◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Zach Allen◄
1.1 press/gm
Leonard Williams
0.8 press/gm
Nik Bonitto◄
1.2 impact/gm
DeMarcus Lawrence
0.8 impact/gm
Riley Moss◄
0.8 cover/gm
Josh Jobe
0.6 cover/gm
Talanoa Hufanga◄
0.7 cover/gm
Ty Okada
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
LA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
DET
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
Matthew Stafford◄
0.19 EPA/att
Jared Goff
0.14 EPA/att
Kyren Williams
0.04 EPA/tch
Jahmyr Gibbs◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Puka Nacua◄
0.59 EPA/tgt
Amon-Ra St. Brown
0.28 EPA/tgt
Colby Parkinson
0.17 EPA/tgt
Sam LaPorta◄
0.54 EPA/tgt
Elite◄
3.7% sack rate
Good
6.3% sack rate
Poona Ford◄
0.3 disrupt/gm
Tyleik Williams
0.2 disrupt/gm
Kobie Turner
0.6 press/gm
Aidan Hutchinson◄
1.3 press/gm
Byron Young◄
1.1 impact/gm
Derrick Barnes
0.7 impact/gm
Jaylen Watson
0.4 cover/gm
D.J. Reed◄
0.5 cover/gm
Kamren Kinchens◄
0.6 cover/gm
Chuck Clark
0.3 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
PIT
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
ATL
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Aaron Rodgers◄
0.04 EPA/att
Michael Penix Jr.
0.01 EPA/att
Jaylen Warren◄
0.03 EPA/tch
Bijan Robinson
0.03 EPA/tch
DK Metcalf◄
0.26 EPA/tgt
Drake London
0.18 EPA/tgt
Darnell Washington◄
0.24 EPA/tgt
Kyle Pitts Sr.
0.18 EPA/tgt
Good
5.3% sack rate
Elite◄
4.6% sack rate
Keeanu Benton
0.6 disrupt/gm
Gervon Dexter Sr.◄
0.7 disrupt/gm
Cameron Heyward
0.4 press/gm
Brandon Dorlus◄
0.8 press/gm
Payton Wilson
0.7 impact/gm
Divine Deablo◄
0.7 impact/gm
Jalen Ramsey
0.4 cover/gm
A.J. Terrell Jr.◄
0.5 cover/gm
Jaquan Brisker
0.6 cover/gm
Jessie Bates III◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
HOU
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
IND
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
C.J. Stroud
0.08 EPA/att
Daniel Jones◄
0.11 EPA/att
David Montgomery
0.02 EPA/tch
Jonathan Taylor◄
0.07 EPA/tch
Nico Collins
0.26 EPA/tgt
Alec Pierce◄
0.49 EPA/tgt
Dalton Schultz◄
0.29 EPA/tgt
Tyler Warren
0.12 EPA/tgt
Average
5.1% sack rate
Good◄
5.0% sack rate
Tommy Togiai◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Grover Stewart
0.3 disrupt/gm
Will Anderson Jr.◄
1.2 press/gm
Laiatu Latu
0.9 press/gm
Henry To'oTo'o◄
0.8 impact/gm
Akeem Davis-Gaither
0.5 impact/gm
Kamari Lassiter◄
1.0 cover/gm
Sauce Gardner
0.5 cover/gm
Reed Blankenship
0.4 cover/gm
Cam Bynum◄
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
LV
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
LAC
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Kirk Cousins
-0.00 EPA/att
Justin Herbert◄
0.02 EPA/att
Ashton Jeanty
-0.20 EPA/tch
Omarion Hampton◄
-0.01 EPA/tch
Tre Tucker◄
0.18 EPA/tgt
Ladd McConkey
0.05 EPA/tgt
Brock Bowers◄
0.22 EPA/tgt
Charlie Kolar
0.15 EPA/tgt
Bad
11.1% sack rate
Bad◄
9.5% sack rate
Adam Butler
0.3 disrupt/gm
Dalvin Tomlinson◄
no 2025 data
Jonah Laulu
no 2025 data
Teair Tart
no 2025 data
Quay Walker◄
0.9 impact/gm
Daiyan Henley
0.8 impact/gm
Eric Stokes
0.2 cover/gm
Cam Hart◄
0.5 cover/gm
Jeremy Chinn
0.3 cover/gm
Derwin James Jr.◄
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
DAL
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
CLE
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Dak Prescott◄
0.15 EPA/att
Deshaun Watson
no 2025 data
Javonte Williams◄
-0.03 EPA/tch
Quinshon Judkins
-0.10 EPA/tch
CeeDee Lamb◄
0.20 EPA/tgt
Jerry Jeudy
-0.24 EPA/tgt
Jake Ferguson◄
0.16 EPA/tgt
Harold Fannin Jr.
0.01 EPA/tgt
Elite◄
4.7% sack rate
Bad
8.4% sack rate
Otito Ogbonnia
0.3 disrupt/gm
Mason Graham◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Quinnen Williams
no 2025 data
Jared Verse◄
0.9 press/gm
Dee Winters
0.8 impact/gm
Carson Schwesinger◄
0.9 impact/gm
Cobie Durant
0.5 cover/gm
Tyson Campbell◄
0.7 cover/gm
Malik Hooker
0.2 cover/gm
Grant Delpit◄
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
GB
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
PHI
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · four-man rush
Jordan Love◄
0.18 EPA/att
Jalen Hurts
0.05 EPA/att
MarShawn Lloyd◄
no 2025 data
Saquon Barkley
-0.08 EPA/tch
Christian Watson◄
0.38 EPA/tgt
DeVonta Smith
0.38 EPA/tgt
Tucker Kraft◄
0.62 EPA/tgt
Dallas Goedert
0.36 EPA/tgt
Average◄
5.6% sack rate
Average
6.6% sack rate
Javon Hargrave◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Average
no data
Karl Brooks
no 2025 data
Jalen Carter
no 2025 data
Edgerrin Cooper
0.6 impact/gm
Zack Baun◄
1.0 impact/gm
Keisean Nixon◄
0.7 cover/gm
Quinyon Mitchell
0.7 cover/gm
Evan Williams◄
0.6 cover/gm
Andrew Mukuba
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
MIN
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
NYG
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Kyler Murray◄
0.02 EPA/att
Jaxson Dart
0.01 EPA/att
Aaron Jones Sr.◄
-0.04 EPA/tch
Cam Skattebo
-0.05 EPA/tch
Justin Jefferson
-0.08 EPA/tgt
Malik Nabers◄
0.04 EPA/tgt
T.J. Hockenson◄
0.17 EPA/tgt
Isaiah Likely
0.10 EPA/tgt
Bad
11.0% sack rate
Bad◄
8.4% sack rate
Caleb Banks◄
no 2025 data
DJ Reader
0.1 disrupt/gm
Levi Drake Rodriguez◄
no 2025 data
Shelby Harris
0.2 press/gm
Eric Wilson
1.1 impact/gm
Brian Burns◄
1.8 impact/gm
Byron Murphy Jr.
0.4 cover/gm
Dru Phillips◄
0.6 cover/gm
Joshua Metellus◄
0.6 cover/gm
Tyler Nubin
0.3 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
BAL
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
KC
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Lamar Jackson
0.04 EPA/att
Patrick Mahomes◄
0.10 EPA/att
Derrick Henry◄
0.02 EPA/tch
Kenneth Walker III
-0.02 EPA/tch
Zay Flowers◄
0.32 EPA/tgt
Rashee Rice
0.15 EPA/tgt
Mark Andrews
0.02 EPA/tgt
Travis Kelce◄
0.32 EPA/tgt
Good◄
9.6% sack rate
Average
7.4% sack rate
Travis Jones◄
0.7 disrupt/gm
Khyiris Tonga
0.1 disrupt/gm
Calais Campbell
0.7 press/gm
George Karlaftis◄
0.8 press/gm
Roquan Smith
0.7 impact/gm
Drue Tranquill◄
0.7 impact/gm
Nate Wiggins◄
0.7 cover/gm
L'Jarius Sneed
0.2 cover/gm
Malaki Starks
0.5 cover/gm
Alohi Gilman◄
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
Winner accuracy by grade, 1070 games. A high grade means a clearer mismatch — but the books know it too, so higher accuracy here does not mean a betting edge.
All validated trends · out-of-sample (2020–2026)
NFL · Members
The full board, confidence ratings, and daily plays — plus the complete track record. New plays every morning. The track record and featured picks above stay free.
NFL Pass
$9.99/mo
Just NFL
All-AccessBest value
$29.99/mo
All 5 sports
Secure checkout via Stripe. Cancel anytime. 21+. Bet responsibly.
