We simulate every NFL game on opponent-adjusted net EPA — offense and defense on both sides set the projected margin, scoring rates set the total — then post only the handful we have the most conviction in. Every posted game gets a grade and a projected score, and every one is graded against the real result.
Graded games
75.9%
the games we post · B+ or better
Full slate
62.5%
every game · n=1070
Market
67.4%
closing line · it’s better
Margin error
10.5
points, full slate
Accuracy is measured against the actual final score — did we pick the winner, and how many points off was the margin — not against the betting line. Across 2019–2025 the simulator calls 62.5% of all games straight up. The market’s closing line calls 67.4% — the NFL is the most efficient market in sports, so the full slate is worse than the market and we say so. It is a prediction tool, not a betting edge: it does not beat the spread. Analysis and entertainment, 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.
Board went 0-0 · full slate 10-4 straight up
Every game we simulated this week, highest conviction first. The board above is only the ones that cleared B+— here’s the whole week so nothing’s hidden.
CHI
OFF Balanced · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
NO
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Caleb Williams◄
0.06 EPA/att
Tyler Shough
The grade is our conviction in our own call — how big the projected margin is. Here is how each grade actually performed across 2019–2025:
Net EPA — opponent-adjusted expected points added on offense and defense, both sides of the ball — sets the projected margin. Scoring rates set the total. Ratings are computed as of that week’s kickoff, using only games already played, so nothing is graded with hindsight. Early in the season a team carries its prior-year rating until it has enough games to stand on its own.
It does not beat the spread. The NFL market is the sharpest in sports. We publish this because the projection and the matchup are interesting and we grade ourselves honestly against the real score — not because it prints money.
Also on our board
Separate from the simulator: situational trends mined from 1999–2026 seasons and validated out-of-sample. Only the ones that actually hold up.
The Sizzlin NFL Simulator is analysis and entertainment — not betting advice or a guaranteed outcome. 21+. 1-800-GAMBLER.
0.00 EPA/att
D'Andre Swift◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Travis Etienne Jr.
-0.03 EPA/tch
Rome Odunze
0.18 EPA/tgt
Chris Olave◄
0.19 EPA/tgt
Colston Loveland◄
0.47 EPA/tgt
Juwan Johnson
0.29 EPA/tgt
Elite◄
4.0% sack rate
Bad
7.7% sack rate
Grady Jarrett◄
0.3 disrupt/gm
Davon Godchaux
0.1 disrupt/gm
Montez Sweat◄
0.9 press/gm
Colby Wooden
0.2 press/gm
Devin Bush
0.9 impact/gm
Kaden Elliss◄
1.0 impact/gm
Cam Lewis
0.2 cover/gm
Kool-Aid McKinstry◄
0.9 cover/gm
Xavier Woods
0.4 cover/gm
Justin Reid◄
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
ARI
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
CLE
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Jacoby Brissett
-0.00 EPA/att
Deshaun Watson◄
no 2025 data
Jeremiyah Love◄
no 2025 data
Quinshon Judkins
-0.10 EPA/tch
Marvin Harrison Jr.◄
0.31 EPA/tgt
Jerry Jeudy
-0.24 EPA/tgt
Trey McBride◄
0.39 EPA/tgt
Harold Fannin Jr.
0.01 EPA/tgt
Bad◄
8.3% sack rate
Bad
8.4% sack rate
Roy Lopez◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Mason Graham
0.4 disrupt/gm
Josh Sweat
no 2025 data
Jared Verse◄
0.9 press/gm
Jack Gibbens
0.7 impact/gm
Carson Schwesinger◄
0.9 impact/gm
Denzel Burke
0.7 cover/gm
Tyson Campbell◄
0.7 cover/gm
Budda Baker◄
0.5 cover/gm
Grant Delpit
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
SEA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
BAL
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Sam Darnold◄
0.11 EPA/att
Lamar Jackson
0.04 EPA/att
Brady Russell
-0.01 EPA/tch
Derrick Henry◄
0.02 EPA/tch
Jaxon Smith-Njigba◄
0.47 EPA/tgt
Zay Flowers
0.32 EPA/tgt
AJ Barner◄
0.32 EPA/tgt
Mark Andrews
0.02 EPA/tgt
Average
5.3% sack rate
Good◄
9.6% sack rate
Byron Murphy II◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Travis Jones
0.7 disrupt/gm
Leonard Williams◄
0.8 press/gm
Calais Campbell
0.7 press/gm
DeMarcus Lawrence◄
0.8 impact/gm
Roquan Smith
0.7 impact/gm
Josh Jobe
0.6 cover/gm
Nate Wiggins◄
0.7 cover/gm
Ty Okada◄
0.5 cover/gm
Malaki Starks
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
NYG
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
LV
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Jaxson Dart◄
0.01 EPA/att
Kirk Cousins
-0.00 EPA/att
Cam Skattebo◄
-0.05 EPA/tch
Ashton Jeanty
-0.20 EPA/tch
Malik Nabers
0.04 EPA/tgt
Tre Tucker◄
0.18 EPA/tgt
Isaiah Likely
0.10 EPA/tgt
Brock Bowers◄
0.22 EPA/tgt
Bad◄
8.4% sack rate
Bad
11.1% sack rate
DJ Reader
0.1 disrupt/gm
Adam Butler◄
0.3 disrupt/gm
Shelby Harris
0.2 press/gm
Jonah Laulu◄
no 2025 data
Brian Burns◄
1.8 impact/gm
Quay Walker
0.9 impact/gm
Dru Phillips◄
0.6 cover/gm
Eric Stokes
0.2 cover/gm
Tyler Nubin
0.3 cover/gm
Jeremy Chinn◄
0.3 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
BUF
OFF Run-heavy · under-center
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
CIN
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Josh Allen◄
0.11 EPA/att
Joe Burrow
0.08 EPA/att
James Cook III◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Chase Brown
-0.04 EPA/tch
DJ Moore
0.12 EPA/tgt
Ja'Marr Chase◄
0.19 EPA/tgt
Dalton Kincaid◄
0.58 EPA/tgt
Mike Gesicki
0.07 EPA/tgt
Good◄
7.5% sack rate
Good
5.3% sack rate
Deone Walker◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Dexter Lawrence II
0.3 disrupt/gm
T.J. Sanders◄
no 2025 data
Boye Mafe
0.2 press/gm
Greg Rousseau
0.7 impact/gm
Demetrius Knight Jr.◄
0.8 impact/gm
Dee Alford◄
0.8 cover/gm
Dax Hill
0.5 cover/gm
Cole Bishop
0.7 cover/gm
Jordan Battle◄
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
TB
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
HOU
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Baker Mayfield
0.00 EPA/att
C.J. Stroud◄
0.08 EPA/att
Bucky Irving
-0.10 EPA/tch
David Montgomery◄
0.02 EPA/tch
Emeka Egbuka
0.05 EPA/tgt
Nico Collins◄
0.26 EPA/tgt
Cade Otton
0.03 EPA/tgt
Dalton Schultz◄
0.29 EPA/tgt
Average
6.4% sack rate
Average◄
5.1% sack rate
Vita Vea◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Tommy Togiai
0.4 disrupt/gm
Calijah Kancey
no 2025 data
Will Anderson Jr.◄
1.2 press/gm
Yaya Diaby◄
0.9 impact/gm
Henry To'oTo'o
0.8 impact/gm
Jacob Parrish
0.4 cover/gm
Kamari Lassiter◄
1.0 cover/gm
Antoine Winfield Jr.◄
0.6 cover/gm
Reed Blankenship
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
WAS
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
NE
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Jayden Daniels
-0.01 EPA/att
Drake Maye◄
0.25 EPA/att
Jacory Croskey-Merritt◄
-0.02 EPA/tch
Rhamondre Stevenson
-0.02 EPA/tch
Terry McLaurin◄
0.36 EPA/tgt
Romeo Doubs
0.30 EPA/tgt
Chig Okonkwo
0.13 EPA/tgt
Hunter Henry◄
0.36 EPA/tgt
Good◄
7.3% sack rate
Average
8.7% sack rate
Daron Payne◄
0.6 disrupt/gm
Cory Durden
0.2 disrupt/gm
Tim Settle
no 2025 data
Christian Barmore
no 2025 data
Odafe Oweh◄
0.7 impact/gm
Dre'Mont Jones
0.6 impact/gm
Mike Sainristil◄
0.7 cover/gm
Carlton Davis III
0.4 cover/gm
Nick Cross◄
0.5 cover/gm
Craig Woodson
0.3 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
TEN
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
PIT
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Cam Ward
-0.15 EPA/att
Aaron Rodgers◄
0.04 EPA/att
Tony Pollard
-0.10 EPA/tch
Jaylen Warren◄
0.03 EPA/tch
Carnell Tate
no 2025 data
DK Metcalf◄
0.26 EPA/tgt
Gunnar Helm
0.05 EPA/tgt
Darnell Washington◄
0.24 EPA/tgt
Bad
8.9% sack rate
Good◄
5.3% sack rate
Jeffery Simmons◄
1.5 disrupt/gm
Keeanu Benton
0.6 disrupt/gm
Jermaine Johnson II
0.3 press/gm
Cameron Heyward◄
0.4 press/gm
Cody Barton◄
0.7 impact/gm
Payton Wilson
0.7 impact/gm
Alontae Taylor◄
0.6 cover/gm
Jalen Ramsey
0.4 cover/gm
Amani Hooker
0.5 cover/gm
Jaquan Brisker◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
IND
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
CAR
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Daniel Jones◄
0.11 EPA/att
Bryce Young
-0.03 EPA/att
Jonathan Taylor◄
0.07 EPA/tch
Chuba Hubbard
-0.05 EPA/tch
Alec Pierce◄
0.49 EPA/tgt
Tetairoa McMillan
0.17 EPA/tgt
Tyler Warren
0.12 EPA/tgt
Tommy Tremble◄
0.15 EPA/tgt
Good◄
5.0% sack rate
Average
6.4% sack rate
Grover Stewart
0.3 disrupt/gm
Lee Hunter◄
no 2025 data
Laiatu Latu◄
0.9 press/gm
Derrick Brown
no 2025 data
Akeem Davis-Gaither
0.5 impact/gm
Bobby Okereke◄
0.7 impact/gm
Sauce Gardner
0.5 cover/gm
Mike Jackson◄
1.0 cover/gm
Cam Bynum◄
0.7 cover/gm
Nick Scott
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
DAL
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
PHI
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · four-man rush
Dak Prescott◄
0.15 EPA/att
Jalen Hurts
0.05 EPA/att
Javonte Williams◄
-0.03 EPA/tch
Saquon Barkley
-0.08 EPA/tch
CeeDee Lamb
0.20 EPA/tgt
DeVonta Smith◄
0.38 EPA/tgt
Jake Ferguson
0.16 EPA/tgt
Dallas Goedert◄
0.36 EPA/tgt
Elite◄
4.7% sack rate
Average
6.6% sack rate
Otito Ogbonnia
0.3 disrupt/gm
Average◄
no data
Quinnen Williams
no 2025 data
Jalen Carter
no 2025 data
Dee Winters
0.8 impact/gm
Zack Baun◄
1.0 impact/gm
Cobie Durant
0.5 cover/gm
Quinyon Mitchell◄
0.7 cover/gm
Malik Hooker
0.2 cover/gm
Andrew Mukuba◄
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
MIN
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
ATL
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Kyler Murray◄
0.02 EPA/att
Michael Penix Jr.
0.01 EPA/att
Aaron Jones Sr.
-0.04 EPA/tch
Bijan Robinson◄
0.03 EPA/tch
Justin Jefferson
-0.08 EPA/tgt
Drake London◄
0.18 EPA/tgt
T.J. Hockenson
0.17 EPA/tgt
Kyle Pitts Sr.◄
0.18 EPA/tgt
Bad
11.0% sack rate
Elite◄
4.6% sack rate
Caleb Banks
no 2025 data
Gervon Dexter Sr.◄
0.7 disrupt/gm
Levi Drake Rodriguez◄
no 2025 data
Brandon Dorlus
0.8 press/gm
Eric Wilson◄
1.1 impact/gm
Divine Deablo
0.7 impact/gm
Byron Murphy Jr.
0.4 cover/gm
A.J. Terrell Jr.◄
0.5 cover/gm
Joshua Metellus
0.6 cover/gm
Jessie Bates III◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
MIA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
KC
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Malik Willis◄
0.13 EPA/att
Patrick Mahomes
0.10 EPA/att
De'Von Achane◄
0.01 EPA/tch
Kenneth Walker III
-0.02 EPA/tch
Malik Washington
-0.10 EPA/tgt
Rashee Rice◄
0.15 EPA/tgt
Greg Dulcich◄
0.34 EPA/tgt
Travis Kelce
0.32 EPA/tgt
Good◄
7.4% sack rate
Average
7.4% sack rate
Jordan Phillips◄
0.2 disrupt/gm
Khyiris Tonga
0.1 disrupt/gm
Chop Robinson
no 2025 data
George Karlaftis
0.8 press/gm
Jordyn Brooks◄
1.2 impact/gm
Drue Tranquill
0.7 impact/gm
Jason Marshall Jr.◄
0.3 cover/gm
L'Jarius Sneed
0.2 cover/gm
Dante Trader Jr.
0.2 cover/gm
Alohi Gilman◄
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
LA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
GB
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Matthew Stafford◄
0.19 EPA/att
Jordan Love
0.18 EPA/att
Kyren Williams◄
0.04 EPA/tch
MarShawn Lloyd
no 2025 data
Puka Nacua◄
0.59 EPA/tgt
Christian Watson
0.38 EPA/tgt
Colby Parkinson
0.17 EPA/tgt
Tucker Kraft◄
0.62 EPA/tgt
Elite◄
3.7% sack rate
Average
5.6% sack rate
Poona Ford
0.3 disrupt/gm
Javon Hargrave◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Kobie Turner
0.6 press/gm
Karl Brooks◄
no 2025 data
Byron Young◄
1.1 impact/gm
Edgerrin Cooper
0.6 impact/gm
Jaylen Watson
0.4 cover/gm
Keisean Nixon◄
0.7 cover/gm
Kamren Kinchens
0.6 cover/gm
Evan Williams◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
LAC
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
NYJ
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Justin Herbert◄
0.02 EPA/att
Geno Smith
-0.12 EPA/att
Omarion Hampton◄
-0.01 EPA/tch
Breece Hall
-0.04 EPA/tch
Ladd McConkey◄
0.05 EPA/tgt
Garrett Wilson
-0.02 EPA/tgt
Charlie Kolar◄
0.15 EPA/tgt
Mason Taylor
0.12 EPA/tgt
Bad◄
9.5% sack rate
Bad
10.8% sack rate
Dalvin Tomlinson◄
no 2025 data
Harrison Phillips
0.2 disrupt/gm
Teair Tart
no 2025 data
Will McDonald IV◄
0.9 press/gm
Daiyan Henley
0.8 impact/gm
Jamien Sherwood◄
1.0 impact/gm
Cam Hart
0.5 cover/gm
Nahshon Wright◄
0.8 cover/gm
Derwin James Jr.◄
0.7 cover/gm
Dane Belton
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
Winner accuracy by grade, 1070 games. A high grade means a clearer mismatch — but the books know it too, so higher accuracy here does not mean a betting edge.
All validated trends · out-of-sample (2020–2026)
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