We simulate every NFL game on opponent-adjusted net EPA — offense and defense on both sides set the projected margin, scoring rates set the total — then post only the handful we have the most conviction in. Every posted game gets a grade and a projected score, and every one is graded against the real result.
Graded games
75.9%
the games we post · B+ or better
Full slate
62.5%
every game · n=1070
Market
67.4%
closing line · it’s better
Margin error
10.5
points, full slate
Accuracy is measured against the actual final score — did we pick the winner, and how many points off was the margin — not against the betting line. Across 2019–2025 the simulator calls 62.5% of all games straight up. The market’s closing line calls 67.4% — the NFL is the most efficient market in sports, so the full slate is worse than the market and we say so. It is a prediction tool, not a betting edge: it does not beat the spread. Analysis and entertainment, 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.
Board went 3-1 · full slate 9-7 straight up
Our 4 highest-conviction calls out of 16 games this week. We post at most 6, and nothing below a B+ — a thin week posts fewer rather than padding the board.
CIN
SF
15
26
Offense
SF
Defense
SF
Missed the winner
CIN
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
SF
Balanced · mixed sets
Every game we simulated this week, highest conviction first. The board above is only the ones that cleared B+— here’s the whole week so nothing’s hidden.
CIN
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
SF
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Joe Burrow
0.08 EPA/att
Brock Purdy
The grade is our conviction in our own call — how big the projected margin is. Here is how each grade actually performed across 2019–2025:
Net EPA — opponent-adjusted expected points added on offense and defense, both sides of the ball — sets the projected margin. Scoring rates set the total. Ratings are computed as of that week’s kickoff, using only games already played, so nothing is graded with hindsight. Early in the season a team carries its prior-year rating until it has enough games to stand on its own.
It does not beat the spread. The NFL market is the sharpest in sports. We publish this because the projection and the matchup are interesting and we grade ourselves honestly against the real score — not because it prints money.
Also on our board
Separate from the simulator: situational trends mined from 1999–2026 seasons and validated out-of-sample. Only the ones that actually hold up.
The Sizzlin NFL Simulator is analysis and entertainment — not betting advice or a guaranteed outcome. 21+. 1-800-GAMBLER.
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Joe Burrow
0.08 EPA/att
Brock Purdy◄
0.13 EPA/att
Chase Brown
-0.04 EPA/tch
Christian McCaffrey◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Ja'Marr Chase◄
0.19 EPA/tgt
Mike Evans
0.06 EPA/tgt
Mike Gesicki
0.07 EPA/tgt
George Kittle◄
0.53 EPA/tgt
Good◄
5.3% sack rate
Average
4.5% sack rate
Dexter Lawrence II
0.3 disrupt/gm
Osa Odighizuwa◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Boye Mafe
0.2 press/gm
Keion White◄
0.2 press/gm
Demetrius Knight Jr.◄
0.8 impact/gm
Luke Gifford
0.1 impact/gm
Dax Hill◄
0.5 cover/gm
Deommodore Lenoir
0.3 cover/gm
Jordan Battle◄
0.7 cover/gm
Ji'Ayir Brown
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
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0.13 EPA/att
Chase Brown
-0.04 EPA/tch
Christian McCaffrey◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Ja'Marr Chase◄
0.19 EPA/tgt
Mike Evans
0.06 EPA/tgt
Mike Gesicki
0.07 EPA/tgt
George Kittle◄
0.53 EPA/tgt
Good◄
5.3% sack rate
Average
4.5% sack rate
Dexter Lawrence II
0.3 disrupt/gm
Osa Odighizuwa◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Boye Mafe
0.2 press/gm
Keion White◄
0.2 press/gm
Demetrius Knight Jr.◄
0.8 impact/gm
Luke Gifford
0.1 impact/gm
Dax Hill◄
0.5 cover/gm
Deommodore Lenoir
0.3 cover/gm
Jordan Battle◄
0.7 cover/gm
Ji'Ayir Brown
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
NE
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
MIA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Drake Maye◄
0.25 EPA/att
Malik Willis
0.13 EPA/att
Rhamondre Stevenson
-0.02 EPA/tch
De'Von Achane◄
0.01 EPA/tch
Romeo Doubs◄
0.30 EPA/tgt
Malik Washington
-0.10 EPA/tgt
Hunter Henry◄
0.36 EPA/tgt
Greg Dulcich
0.34 EPA/tgt
Average
8.7% sack rate
Good◄
7.4% sack rate
Cory Durden◄
0.2 disrupt/gm
Jordan Phillips
0.2 disrupt/gm
Christian Barmore
no 2025 data
Chop Robinson
no 2025 data
Dre'Mont Jones
0.6 impact/gm
Jordyn Brooks◄
1.2 impact/gm
Carlton Davis III◄
0.4 cover/gm
Jason Marshall Jr.
0.3 cover/gm
Craig Woodson◄
0.3 cover/gm
Dante Trader Jr.
0.2 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
TB
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
BUF
OFF Run-heavy · under-center
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Baker Mayfield
0.00 EPA/att
Josh Allen◄
0.11 EPA/att
Bucky Irving
-0.10 EPA/tch
James Cook III◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Emeka Egbuka
0.05 EPA/tgt
DJ Moore◄
0.12 EPA/tgt
Cade Otton
0.03 EPA/tgt
Dalton Kincaid◄
0.58 EPA/tgt
Average
6.4% sack rate
Good◄
7.5% sack rate
Vita Vea◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Deone Walker
0.4 disrupt/gm
Calijah Kancey
no 2025 data
T.J. Sanders
no 2025 data
Yaya Diaby◄
0.9 impact/gm
Greg Rousseau
0.7 impact/gm
Jacob Parrish
0.4 cover/gm
Dee Alford◄
0.8 cover/gm
Antoine Winfield Jr.
0.6 cover/gm
Cole Bishop◄
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
LV
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
DET
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
Kirk Cousins
-0.00 EPA/att
Jared Goff◄
0.14 EPA/att
Ashton Jeanty
-0.20 EPA/tch
Jahmyr Gibbs◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Tre Tucker
0.18 EPA/tgt
Amon-Ra St. Brown◄
0.28 EPA/tgt
Brock Bowers
0.22 EPA/tgt
Sam LaPorta◄
0.54 EPA/tgt
Bad
11.1% sack rate
Good◄
6.3% sack rate
Adam Butler◄
0.3 disrupt/gm
Tyleik Williams
0.2 disrupt/gm
Jonah Laulu
no 2025 data
Aidan Hutchinson◄
1.3 press/gm
Quay Walker◄
0.9 impact/gm
Derrick Barnes
0.7 impact/gm
Eric Stokes
0.2 cover/gm
D.J. Reed◄
0.5 cover/gm
Jeremy Chinn◄
0.3 cover/gm
Chuck Clark
0.3 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
BAL
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
ARI
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Lamar Jackson◄
0.04 EPA/att
Jacoby Brissett
-0.00 EPA/att
Derrick Henry◄
0.02 EPA/tch
Jeremiyah Love
no 2025 data
Zay Flowers◄
0.32 EPA/tgt
Marvin Harrison Jr.
0.31 EPA/tgt
Mark Andrews
0.02 EPA/tgt
Trey McBride◄
0.39 EPA/tgt
Good◄
9.6% sack rate
Bad
8.3% sack rate
Travis Jones◄
0.7 disrupt/gm
Roy Lopez
0.4 disrupt/gm
Calais Campbell
0.7 press/gm
Josh Sweat◄
no 2025 data
Roquan Smith◄
0.7 impact/gm
Jack Gibbens
0.7 impact/gm
Nate Wiggins◄
0.7 cover/gm
Denzel Burke
0.7 cover/gm
Malaki Starks
0.5 cover/gm
Budda Baker◄
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
CLE
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
SEA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Deshaun Watson
no 2025 data
Sam Darnold◄
0.11 EPA/att
Quinshon Judkins
-0.10 EPA/tch
Brady Russell◄
-0.01 EPA/tch
Jerry Jeudy
-0.24 EPA/tgt
Jaxon Smith-Njigba◄
0.47 EPA/tgt
Harold Fannin Jr.
0.01 EPA/tgt
AJ Barner◄
0.32 EPA/tgt
Bad
8.4% sack rate
Average◄
5.3% sack rate
Mason Graham
0.4 disrupt/gm
Byron Murphy II◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Jared Verse◄
0.9 press/gm
Leonard Williams
0.8 press/gm
Carson Schwesinger◄
0.9 impact/gm
DeMarcus Lawrence
0.8 impact/gm
Tyson Campbell◄
0.7 cover/gm
Josh Jobe
0.6 cover/gm
Grant Delpit
0.4 cover/gm
Ty Okada◄
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
KC
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
DEN
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
Patrick Mahomes◄
0.10 EPA/att
Bo Nix
0.08 EPA/att
Kenneth Walker III
-0.02 EPA/tch
J.K. Dobbins◄
-0.00 EPA/tch
Rashee Rice
0.15 EPA/tgt
Jaylen Waddle◄
0.27 EPA/tgt
Travis Kelce◄
0.32 EPA/tgt
Evan Engram
0.04 EPA/tgt
Average
7.4% sack rate
Elite◄
3.6% sack rate
Khyiris Tonga
0.1 disrupt/gm
D.J. Jones◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
George Karlaftis
0.8 press/gm
Zach Allen◄
1.1 press/gm
Drue Tranquill
0.7 impact/gm
Nik Bonitto◄
1.2 impact/gm
L'Jarius Sneed
0.2 cover/gm
Riley Moss◄
0.8 cover/gm
Alohi Gilman
0.5 cover/gm
Talanoa Hufanga◄
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
CHI
OFF Balanced · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
LAC
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Caleb Williams◄
0.06 EPA/att
Justin Herbert
0.02 EPA/att
D'Andre Swift◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Omarion Hampton
-0.01 EPA/tch
Rome Odunze◄
0.18 EPA/tgt
Ladd McConkey
0.05 EPA/tgt
Colston Loveland◄
0.47 EPA/tgt
Charlie Kolar
0.15 EPA/tgt
Elite◄
4.0% sack rate
Bad
9.5% sack rate
Grady Jarrett
0.3 disrupt/gm
Dalvin Tomlinson◄
no 2025 data
Montez Sweat◄
0.9 press/gm
Teair Tart
no 2025 data
Devin Bush◄
0.9 impact/gm
Daiyan Henley
0.8 impact/gm
Cam Lewis
0.2 cover/gm
Cam Hart◄
0.5 cover/gm
Xavier Woods
0.4 cover/gm
Derwin James Jr.◄
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
LA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
DAL
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Matthew Stafford◄
0.19 EPA/att
Dak Prescott
0.15 EPA/att
Kyren Williams◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Javonte Williams
-0.03 EPA/tch
Puka Nacua◄
0.59 EPA/tgt
CeeDee Lamb
0.20 EPA/tgt
Colby Parkinson◄
0.17 EPA/tgt
Jake Ferguson
0.16 EPA/tgt
Elite◄
3.7% sack rate
Elite
4.7% sack rate
Poona Ford◄
0.3 disrupt/gm
Otito Ogbonnia
0.3 disrupt/gm
Kobie Turner
0.6 press/gm
Quinnen Williams◄
no 2025 data
Byron Young◄
1.1 impact/gm
Dee Winters
0.8 impact/gm
Jaylen Watson
0.4 cover/gm
Cobie Durant◄
0.5 cover/gm
Kamren Kinchens◄
0.6 cover/gm
Malik Hooker
0.2 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
PHI
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · four-man rush
WAS
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Jalen Hurts◄
0.05 EPA/att
Jayden Daniels
-0.01 EPA/att
Saquon Barkley
-0.08 EPA/tch
Jacory Croskey-Merritt◄
-0.02 EPA/tch
DeVonta Smith◄
0.38 EPA/tgt
Terry McLaurin
0.36 EPA/tgt
Dallas Goedert◄
0.36 EPA/tgt
Chig Okonkwo
0.13 EPA/tgt
Average
6.6% sack rate
Good◄
7.3% sack rate
Average
no data
Daron Payne◄
0.6 disrupt/gm
Jalen Carter
no 2025 data
Tim Settle
no 2025 data
Zack Baun◄
1.0 impact/gm
Odafe Oweh
0.7 impact/gm
Quinyon Mitchell
0.7 cover/gm
Mike Sainristil◄
0.7 cover/gm
Andrew Mukuba
0.4 cover/gm
Nick Cross◄
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
MIN
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
GB
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Kyler Murray
0.02 EPA/att
Jordan Love◄
0.18 EPA/att
Aaron Jones Sr.
-0.04 EPA/tch
MarShawn Lloyd◄
no 2025 data
Justin Jefferson
-0.08 EPA/tgt
Christian Watson◄
0.38 EPA/tgt
T.J. Hockenson
0.17 EPA/tgt
Tucker Kraft◄
0.62 EPA/tgt
Bad
11.0% sack rate
Average◄
5.6% sack rate
Caleb Banks
no 2025 data
Javon Hargrave◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Levi Drake Rodriguez
no 2025 data
Karl Brooks
no 2025 data
Eric Wilson◄
1.1 impact/gm
Edgerrin Cooper
0.6 impact/gm
Byron Murphy Jr.
0.4 cover/gm
Keisean Nixon◄
0.7 cover/gm
Joshua Metellus
0.6 cover/gm
Evan Williams◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
ATL
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
TEN
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Michael Penix Jr.◄
0.01 EPA/att
Cam Ward
-0.15 EPA/att
Bijan Robinson◄
0.03 EPA/tch
Tony Pollard
-0.10 EPA/tch
Drake London
0.18 EPA/tgt
Carnell Tate◄
no 2025 data
Kyle Pitts Sr.◄
0.18 EPA/tgt
Gunnar Helm
0.05 EPA/tgt
Elite◄
4.6% sack rate
Bad
8.9% sack rate
Gervon Dexter Sr.
0.7 disrupt/gm
Jeffery Simmons◄
1.5 disrupt/gm
Brandon Dorlus◄
0.8 press/gm
Jermaine Johnson II
0.3 press/gm
Divine Deablo◄
0.7 impact/gm
Cody Barton
0.7 impact/gm
A.J. Terrell Jr.
0.5 cover/gm
Alontae Taylor◄
0.6 cover/gm
Jessie Bates III◄
0.6 cover/gm
Amani Hooker
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
NO
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
IND
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Tyler Shough
0.00 EPA/att
Daniel Jones◄
0.11 EPA/att
Travis Etienne Jr.
-0.03 EPA/tch
Jonathan Taylor◄
0.07 EPA/tch
Chris Olave
0.19 EPA/tgt
Alec Pierce◄
0.49 EPA/tgt
Juwan Johnson◄
0.29 EPA/tgt
Tyler Warren
0.12 EPA/tgt
Bad
7.7% sack rate
Good◄
5.0% sack rate
Davon Godchaux
0.1 disrupt/gm
Grover Stewart◄
0.3 disrupt/gm
Colby Wooden
0.2 press/gm
Laiatu Latu◄
0.9 press/gm
Kaden Elliss◄
1.0 impact/gm
Akeem Davis-Gaither
0.5 impact/gm
Kool-Aid McKinstry◄
0.9 cover/gm
Sauce Gardner
0.5 cover/gm
Justin Reid
0.5 cover/gm
Cam Bynum◄
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
HOU
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
CAR
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
C.J. Stroud◄
0.08 EPA/att
Bryce Young
-0.03 EPA/att
David Montgomery◄
0.02 EPA/tch
Chuba Hubbard
-0.05 EPA/tch
Nico Collins◄
0.26 EPA/tgt
Tetairoa McMillan
0.17 EPA/tgt
Dalton Schultz◄
0.29 EPA/tgt
Tommy Tremble
0.15 EPA/tgt
Average
5.1% sack rate
Average◄
6.4% sack rate
Tommy Togiai◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Lee Hunter
no 2025 data
Will Anderson Jr.◄
1.2 press/gm
Derrick Brown
no 2025 data
Henry To'oTo'o◄
0.8 impact/gm
Bobby Okereke
0.7 impact/gm
Kamari Lassiter
1.0 cover/gm
Mike Jackson◄
1.0 cover/gm
Reed Blankenship◄
0.4 cover/gm
Nick Scott
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
NYJ
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
NYG
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Geno Smith
-0.12 EPA/att
Jaxson Dart◄
0.01 EPA/att
Breece Hall◄
-0.04 EPA/tch
Cam Skattebo
-0.05 EPA/tch
Garrett Wilson
-0.02 EPA/tgt
Malik Nabers◄
0.04 EPA/tgt
Mason Taylor◄
0.12 EPA/tgt
Isaiah Likely
0.10 EPA/tgt
Bad
10.8% sack rate
Bad◄
8.4% sack rate
Harrison Phillips◄
0.2 disrupt/gm
DJ Reader
0.1 disrupt/gm
Will McDonald IV◄
0.9 press/gm
Shelby Harris
0.2 press/gm
Jamien Sherwood
1.0 impact/gm
Brian Burns◄
1.8 impact/gm
Nahshon Wright◄
0.8 cover/gm
Dru Phillips
0.6 cover/gm
Dane Belton◄
0.5 cover/gm
Tyler Nubin
0.3 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
JAX
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
PIT
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Trevor Lawrence◄
0.05 EPA/att
Aaron Rodgers
0.04 EPA/att
Bhayshul Tuten
-0.03 EPA/tch
Jaylen Warren◄
0.03 EPA/tch
Brian Thomas Jr.
0.14 EPA/tgt
DK Metcalf◄
0.26 EPA/tgt
Brenton Strange◄
0.40 EPA/tgt
Darnell Washington
0.24 EPA/tgt
Bad
6.8% sack rate
Good◄
5.3% sack rate
DaVon Hamilton
0.2 disrupt/gm
Keeanu Benton◄
0.6 disrupt/gm
Josh Hines-Allen◄
1.0 press/gm
Cameron Heyward
0.4 press/gm
Foyesade Oluokun◄
0.9 impact/gm
Payton Wilson
0.7 impact/gm
Montaric Brown◄
0.7 cover/gm
Jalen Ramsey
0.4 cover/gm
Antonio Johnson◄
0.8 cover/gm
Jaquan Brisker
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
Winner accuracy by grade, 1070 games. A high grade means a clearer mismatch — but the books know it too, so higher accuracy here does not mean a betting edge.
All validated trends · out-of-sample (2020–2026)
NFL · Members
The full board, confidence ratings, and daily plays — plus the complete track record. New plays every morning. The track record and featured picks above stay free.
NFL Pass
$9.99/mo
Just NFL
All-AccessBest value
$29.99/mo
All 5 sports
Secure checkout via Stripe. Cancel anytime. 21+. Bet responsibly.
