We simulate every NFL game on opponent-adjusted net EPA — offense and defense on both sides set the projected margin, scoring rates set the total — then post only the handful we have the most conviction in. Every posted game gets a grade and a projected score, and every one is graded against the real result.
Graded games
75.9%
the games we post · B+ or better
Full slate
62.5%
every game · n=1070
Market
67.4%
closing line · it’s better
Margin error
10.5
points, full slate
Accuracy is measured against the actual final score — did we pick the winner, and how many points off was the margin — not against the betting line. Across 2019–2025 the simulator calls 62.5% of all games straight up. The market’s closing line calls 67.4% — the NFL is the most efficient market in sports, so the full slate is worse than the market and we say so. It is a prediction tool, not a betting edge: it does not beat the spread. Analysis and entertainment, 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.
Board went 1-2 · full slate 4-9 straight up
Our 3 highest-conviction calls out of 13 games this week. We post at most 6, and nothing below a B+ — a thin week posts fewer rather than padding the board.
PIT
LA
16
25
Offense
LA
Defense
PIT
Missed the winner
PIT
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
LA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Every game we simulated this week, highest conviction first. The board above is only the ones that cleared B+— here’s the whole week so nothing’s hidden.
PIT
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
LA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Aaron Rodgers
0.04 EPA/att
Matthew Stafford
The grade is our conviction in our own call — how big the projected margin is. Here is how each grade actually performed across 2019–2025:
Net EPA — opponent-adjusted expected points added on offense and defense, both sides of the ball — sets the projected margin. Scoring rates set the total. Ratings are computed as of that week’s kickoff, using only games already played, so nothing is graded with hindsight. Early in the season a team carries its prior-year rating until it has enough games to stand on its own.
It does not beat the spread. The NFL market is the sharpest in sports. We publish this because the projection and the matchup are interesting and we grade ourselves honestly against the real score — not because it prints money.
Also on our board
Separate from the simulator: situational trends mined from 1999–2026 seasons and validated out-of-sample. Only the ones that actually hold up.
The Sizzlin NFL Simulator is analysis and entertainment — not betting advice or a guaranteed outcome. 21+. 1-800-GAMBLER.
Aaron Rodgers
0.04 EPA/att
Matthew Stafford◄
0.19 EPA/att
Jaylen Warren
0.03 EPA/tch
Kyren Williams◄
0.04 EPA/tch
DK Metcalf
0.26 EPA/tgt
Puka Nacua◄
0.59 EPA/tgt
Darnell Washington◄
0.24 EPA/tgt
Colby Parkinson
0.17 EPA/tgt
Good
5.3% sack rate
Elite◄
3.7% sack rate
Keeanu Benton◄
0.6 disrupt/gm
Poona Ford
0.3 disrupt/gm
Cameron Heyward
0.4 press/gm
Kobie Turner◄
0.6 press/gm
Payton Wilson
0.7 impact/gm
Byron Young◄
1.1 impact/gm
Jalen Ramsey
0.4 cover/gm
Jaylen Watson◄
0.4 cover/gm
Jaquan Brisker
0.6 cover/gm
Kamren Kinchens◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
NFL · Members
The full board, confidence ratings, and daily plays — plus the complete track record. New plays every morning. The track record and featured picks above stay free.
NFL Pass
$9.99/mo
Just NFL
All-AccessBest value
$29.99/mo
All 5 sports
Secure checkout via Stripe. Cancel anytime. 21+. Bet responsibly.
0.19 EPA/att
Jaylen Warren
0.03 EPA/tch
Kyren Williams◄
0.04 EPA/tch
DK Metcalf
0.26 EPA/tgt
Puka Nacua◄
0.59 EPA/tgt
Darnell Washington◄
0.24 EPA/tgt
Colby Parkinson
0.17 EPA/tgt
Good
5.3% sack rate
Elite◄
3.7% sack rate
Keeanu Benton◄
0.6 disrupt/gm
Poona Ford
0.3 disrupt/gm
Cameron Heyward
0.4 press/gm
Kobie Turner◄
0.6 press/gm
Payton Wilson
0.7 impact/gm
Byron Young◄
1.1 impact/gm
Jalen Ramsey
0.4 cover/gm
Jaylen Watson◄
0.4 cover/gm
Jaquan Brisker
0.6 cover/gm
Kamren Kinchens◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
ARI
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
SEA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Jacoby Brissett
-0.00 EPA/att
Sam Darnold◄
0.11 EPA/att
Jeremiyah Love
no 2025 data
Brady Russell◄
-0.01 EPA/tch
Marvin Harrison Jr.
0.31 EPA/tgt
Jaxon Smith-Njigba◄
0.47 EPA/tgt
Trey McBride◄
0.39 EPA/tgt
AJ Barner
0.32 EPA/tgt
Bad
8.3% sack rate
Average◄
5.3% sack rate
Roy Lopez
0.4 disrupt/gm
Byron Murphy II◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Josh Sweat
no 2025 data
Leonard Williams
0.8 press/gm
Jack Gibbens
0.7 impact/gm
DeMarcus Lawrence◄
0.8 impact/gm
Denzel Burke◄
0.7 cover/gm
Josh Jobe
0.6 cover/gm
Budda Baker
0.5 cover/gm
Ty Okada◄
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
BUF
OFF Run-heavy · under-center
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
NE
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Josh Allen
0.11 EPA/att
Drake Maye◄
0.25 EPA/att
James Cook III◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Rhamondre Stevenson
-0.02 EPA/tch
DJ Moore
0.12 EPA/tgt
Romeo Doubs◄
0.30 EPA/tgt
Dalton Kincaid◄
0.58 EPA/tgt
Hunter Henry
0.36 EPA/tgt
Good◄
7.5% sack rate
Average
8.7% sack rate
Deone Walker◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Cory Durden
0.2 disrupt/gm
T.J. Sanders
no 2025 data
Christian Barmore
no 2025 data
Greg Rousseau◄
0.7 impact/gm
Dre'Mont Jones
0.6 impact/gm
Dee Alford◄
0.8 cover/gm
Carlton Davis III
0.4 cover/gm
Cole Bishop◄
0.7 cover/gm
Craig Woodson
0.3 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
LAC
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
KC
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Justin Herbert
0.02 EPA/att
Patrick Mahomes◄
0.10 EPA/att
Omarion Hampton◄
-0.01 EPA/tch
Kenneth Walker III
-0.02 EPA/tch
Ladd McConkey
0.05 EPA/tgt
Rashee Rice◄
0.15 EPA/tgt
Charlie Kolar
0.15 EPA/tgt
Travis Kelce◄
0.32 EPA/tgt
Bad
9.5% sack rate
Average◄
7.4% sack rate
Dalvin Tomlinson◄
no 2025 data
Khyiris Tonga
0.1 disrupt/gm
Teair Tart
no 2025 data
George Karlaftis
0.8 press/gm
Daiyan Henley◄
0.8 impact/gm
Drue Tranquill
0.7 impact/gm
Cam Hart◄
0.5 cover/gm
L'Jarius Sneed
0.2 cover/gm
Derwin James Jr.◄
0.7 cover/gm
Alohi Gilman
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
JAX
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
NO
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Trevor Lawrence◄
0.05 EPA/att
Tyler Shough
0.00 EPA/att
Bhayshul Tuten
-0.03 EPA/tch
Travis Etienne Jr.◄
-0.03 EPA/tch
Brian Thomas Jr.
0.14 EPA/tgt
Chris Olave◄
0.19 EPA/tgt
Brenton Strange◄
0.40 EPA/tgt
Juwan Johnson
0.29 EPA/tgt
Bad◄
6.8% sack rate
Bad
7.7% sack rate
DaVon Hamilton◄
0.2 disrupt/gm
Davon Godchaux
0.1 disrupt/gm
Josh Hines-Allen◄
1.0 press/gm
Colby Wooden
0.2 press/gm
Foyesade Oluokun
0.9 impact/gm
Kaden Elliss◄
1.0 impact/gm
Montaric Brown
0.7 cover/gm
Kool-Aid McKinstry◄
0.9 cover/gm
Antonio Johnson◄
0.8 cover/gm
Justin Reid
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
ATL
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
TB
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Michael Penix Jr.◄
0.01 EPA/att
Baker Mayfield
0.00 EPA/att
Bijan Robinson◄
0.03 EPA/tch
Bucky Irving
-0.10 EPA/tch
Drake London◄
0.18 EPA/tgt
Emeka Egbuka
0.05 EPA/tgt
Kyle Pitts Sr.◄
0.18 EPA/tgt
Cade Otton
0.03 EPA/tgt
Elite◄
4.6% sack rate
Average
6.4% sack rate
Gervon Dexter Sr.
0.7 disrupt/gm
Vita Vea◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Brandon Dorlus
0.8 press/gm
Calijah Kancey◄
no 2025 data
Divine Deablo
0.7 impact/gm
Yaya Diaby◄
0.9 impact/gm
A.J. Terrell Jr.◄
0.5 cover/gm
Jacob Parrish
0.4 cover/gm
Jessie Bates III◄
0.6 cover/gm
Antoine Winfield Jr.
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
SF
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
MIN
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Brock Purdy◄
0.13 EPA/att
Kyler Murray
0.02 EPA/att
Christian McCaffrey◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Aaron Jones Sr.
-0.04 EPA/tch
Mike Evans◄
0.06 EPA/tgt
Justin Jefferson
-0.08 EPA/tgt
George Kittle◄
0.53 EPA/tgt
T.J. Hockenson
0.17 EPA/tgt
Average◄
4.5% sack rate
Bad
11.0% sack rate
Osa Odighizuwa◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Caleb Banks
no 2025 data
Keion White
0.2 press/gm
Levi Drake Rodriguez◄
no 2025 data
Luke Gifford
0.1 impact/gm
Eric Wilson◄
1.1 impact/gm
Deommodore Lenoir
0.3 cover/gm
Byron Murphy Jr.◄
0.4 cover/gm
Ji'Ayir Brown
0.5 cover/gm
Joshua Metellus◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
DET
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
BAL
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Jared Goff◄
0.14 EPA/att
Lamar Jackson
0.04 EPA/att
Jahmyr Gibbs◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Derrick Henry
0.02 EPA/tch
Amon-Ra St. Brown
0.28 EPA/tgt
Zay Flowers◄
0.32 EPA/tgt
Sam LaPorta◄
0.54 EPA/tgt
Mark Andrews
0.02 EPA/tgt
Good
6.3% sack rate
Good◄
9.6% sack rate
Tyleik Williams
0.2 disrupt/gm
Travis Jones◄
0.7 disrupt/gm
Aidan Hutchinson◄
1.3 press/gm
Calais Campbell
0.7 press/gm
Derrick Barnes
0.7 impact/gm
Roquan Smith◄
0.7 impact/gm
D.J. Reed
0.5 cover/gm
Nate Wiggins◄
0.7 cover/gm
Chuck Clark
0.3 cover/gm
Malaki Starks◄
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
WAS
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
NYG
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Jayden Daniels
-0.01 EPA/att
Jaxson Dart◄
0.01 EPA/att
Jacory Croskey-Merritt◄
-0.02 EPA/tch
Cam Skattebo
-0.05 EPA/tch
Terry McLaurin◄
0.36 EPA/tgt
Malik Nabers
0.04 EPA/tgt
Chig Okonkwo◄
0.13 EPA/tgt
Isaiah Likely
0.10 EPA/tgt
Good◄
7.3% sack rate
Bad
8.4% sack rate
Daron Payne◄
0.6 disrupt/gm
DJ Reader
0.1 disrupt/gm
Tim Settle◄
no 2025 data
Shelby Harris
0.2 press/gm
Odafe Oweh
0.7 impact/gm
Brian Burns◄
1.8 impact/gm
Mike Sainristil◄
0.7 cover/gm
Dru Phillips
0.6 cover/gm
Nick Cross◄
0.5 cover/gm
Tyler Nubin
0.3 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
CLE
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
IND
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Deshaun Watson
no 2025 data
Daniel Jones◄
0.11 EPA/att
Quinshon Judkins
-0.10 EPA/tch
Jonathan Taylor◄
0.07 EPA/tch
Jerry Jeudy
-0.24 EPA/tgt
Alec Pierce◄
0.49 EPA/tgt
Harold Fannin Jr.
0.01 EPA/tgt
Tyler Warren◄
0.12 EPA/tgt
Bad
8.4% sack rate
Good◄
5.0% sack rate
Mason Graham◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Grover Stewart
0.3 disrupt/gm
Jared Verse◄
0.9 press/gm
Laiatu Latu
0.9 press/gm
Carson Schwesinger◄
0.9 impact/gm
Akeem Davis-Gaither
0.5 impact/gm
Tyson Campbell◄
0.7 cover/gm
Sauce Gardner
0.5 cover/gm
Grant Delpit
0.4 cover/gm
Cam Bynum◄
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
GB
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
DEN
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
Jordan Love◄
0.18 EPA/att
Bo Nix
0.08 EPA/att
MarShawn Lloyd
no 2025 data
J.K. Dobbins◄
-0.00 EPA/tch
Christian Watson◄
0.38 EPA/tgt
Jaylen Waddle
0.27 EPA/tgt
Tucker Kraft◄
0.62 EPA/tgt
Evan Engram
0.04 EPA/tgt
Average
5.6% sack rate
Elite◄
3.6% sack rate
Javon Hargrave◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
D.J. Jones
0.4 disrupt/gm
Karl Brooks
no 2025 data
Zach Allen◄
1.1 press/gm
Edgerrin Cooper
0.6 impact/gm
Nik Bonitto◄
1.2 impact/gm
Keisean Nixon
0.7 cover/gm
Riley Moss◄
0.8 cover/gm
Evan Williams
0.6 cover/gm
Talanoa Hufanga◄
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
LV
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
CHI
OFF Balanced · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
Kirk Cousins
-0.00 EPA/att
Caleb Williams◄
0.06 EPA/att
Ashton Jeanty
-0.20 EPA/tch
D'Andre Swift◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Tre Tucker◄
0.18 EPA/tgt
Rome Odunze
0.18 EPA/tgt
Brock Bowers
0.22 EPA/tgt
Colston Loveland◄
0.47 EPA/tgt
Bad
11.1% sack rate
Elite◄
4.0% sack rate
Adam Butler
0.3 disrupt/gm
Grady Jarrett◄
0.3 disrupt/gm
Jonah Laulu
no 2025 data
Montez Sweat◄
0.9 press/gm
Quay Walker◄
0.9 impact/gm
Devin Bush
0.9 impact/gm
Eric Stokes◄
0.2 cover/gm
Cam Lewis
0.2 cover/gm
Jeremy Chinn
0.3 cover/gm
Xavier Woods◄
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
MIA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
PHI
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · four-man rush
Malik Willis◄
0.13 EPA/att
Jalen Hurts
0.05 EPA/att
De'Von Achane◄
0.01 EPA/tch
Saquon Barkley
-0.08 EPA/tch
Malik Washington
-0.10 EPA/tgt
DeVonta Smith◄
0.38 EPA/tgt
Greg Dulcich
0.34 EPA/tgt
Dallas Goedert◄
0.36 EPA/tgt
Good◄
7.4% sack rate
Average
6.6% sack rate
Jordan Phillips
0.2 disrupt/gm
Average◄
no data
Chop Robinson
no 2025 data
Jalen Carter
no 2025 data
Jordyn Brooks◄
1.2 impact/gm
Zack Baun
1.0 impact/gm
Jason Marshall Jr.
0.3 cover/gm
Quinyon Mitchell◄
0.7 cover/gm
Dante Trader Jr.
0.2 cover/gm
Andrew Mukuba◄
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
Winner accuracy by grade, 1070 games. A high grade means a clearer mismatch — but the books know it too, so higher accuracy here does not mean a betting edge.
All validated trends · out-of-sample (2020–2026)
NFL · Members
The full board, confidence ratings, and daily plays — plus the complete track record. New plays every morning. The track record and featured picks above stay free.
NFL Pass
$9.99/mo
Just NFL
All-AccessBest value
$29.99/mo
All 5 sports
Secure checkout via Stripe. Cancel anytime. 21+. Bet responsibly.
