We simulate every NFL game on opponent-adjusted net EPA — offense and defense on both sides set the projected margin, scoring rates set the total — then post only the handful we have the most conviction in. Every posted game gets a grade and a projected score, and every one is graded against the real result.
Graded games
75.9%
the games we post · B+ or better
Full slate
62.5%
every game · n=1070
Market
67.4%
closing line · it’s better
Margin error
10.5
points, full slate
Accuracy is measured against the actual final score — did we pick the winner, and how many points off was the margin — not against the betting line. Across 2019–2025 the simulator calls 62.5% of all games straight up. The market’s closing line calls 67.4% — the NFL is the most efficient market in sports, so the full slate is worse than the market and we say so. It is a prediction tool, not a betting edge: it does not beat the spread. Analysis and entertainment, 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.
Board went 2-2 · full slate 6-8 straight up
Our 4 highest-conviction calls out of 14 games this week. We post at most 6, and nothing below a B+ — a thin week posts fewer rather than padding the board.
NYG
MIA
20
34
Offense
MIA
Defense
NYG
Called it ✓
NYG
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
MIA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Every game we simulated this week, highest conviction first. The board above is only the ones that cleared B+— here’s the whole week so nothing’s hidden.
NYG
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
MIA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Jaxson Dart
0.01 EPA/att
Malik Willis
The grade is our conviction in our own call — how big the projected margin is. Here is how each grade actually performed across 2019–2025:
Net EPA — opponent-adjusted expected points added on offense and defense, both sides of the ball — sets the projected margin. Scoring rates set the total. Ratings are computed as of that week’s kickoff, using only games already played, so nothing is graded with hindsight. Early in the season a team carries its prior-year rating until it has enough games to stand on its own.
It does not beat the spread. The NFL market is the sharpest in sports. We publish this because the projection and the matchup are interesting and we grade ourselves honestly against the real score — not because it prints money.
Also on our board
Separate from the simulator: situational trends mined from 1999–2026 seasons and validated out-of-sample. Only the ones that actually hold up.
The Sizzlin NFL Simulator is analysis and entertainment — not betting advice or a guaranteed outcome. 21+. 1-800-GAMBLER.
Jaxson Dart
0.01 EPA/att
Malik Willis◄
0.13 EPA/att
Cam Skattebo
-0.05 EPA/tch
De'Von Achane◄
0.01 EPA/tch
Malik Nabers◄
0.04 EPA/tgt
Malik Washington
-0.10 EPA/tgt
Isaiah Likely
0.10 EPA/tgt
Greg Dulcich◄
0.34 EPA/tgt
Bad
8.4% sack rate
Good◄
7.4% sack rate
DJ Reader
0.1 disrupt/gm
Jordan Phillips◄
0.2 disrupt/gm
Shelby Harris
0.2 press/gm
Chop Robinson◄
no 2025 data
Brian Burns◄
1.8 impact/gm
Jordyn Brooks
1.2 impact/gm
Dru Phillips◄
0.6 cover/gm
Jason Marshall Jr.
0.3 cover/gm
Tyler Nubin◄
0.3 cover/gm
Dante Trader Jr.
0.2 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
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0.13 EPA/att
Cam Skattebo
-0.05 EPA/tch
De'Von Achane◄
0.01 EPA/tch
Malik Nabers◄
0.04 EPA/tgt
Malik Washington
-0.10 EPA/tgt
Isaiah Likely
0.10 EPA/tgt
Greg Dulcich◄
0.34 EPA/tgt
Bad
8.4% sack rate
Good◄
7.4% sack rate
DJ Reader
0.1 disrupt/gm
Jordan Phillips◄
0.2 disrupt/gm
Shelby Harris
0.2 press/gm
Chop Robinson◄
no 2025 data
Brian Burns◄
1.8 impact/gm
Jordyn Brooks
1.2 impact/gm
Dru Phillips◄
0.6 cover/gm
Jason Marshall Jr.
0.3 cover/gm
Tyler Nubin◄
0.3 cover/gm
Dante Trader Jr.
0.2 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
JAX
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
BUF
OFF Run-heavy · under-center
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Trevor Lawrence
0.05 EPA/att
Josh Allen◄
0.11 EPA/att
Bhayshul Tuten
-0.03 EPA/tch
James Cook III◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Brian Thomas Jr.◄
0.14 EPA/tgt
DJ Moore
0.12 EPA/tgt
Brenton Strange
0.40 EPA/tgt
Dalton Kincaid◄
0.58 EPA/tgt
Bad
6.8% sack rate
Good◄
7.5% sack rate
DaVon Hamilton
0.2 disrupt/gm
Deone Walker◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Josh Hines-Allen◄
1.0 press/gm
T.J. Sanders
no 2025 data
Foyesade Oluokun◄
0.9 impact/gm
Greg Rousseau
0.7 impact/gm
Montaric Brown
0.7 cover/gm
Dee Alford◄
0.8 cover/gm
Antonio Johnson◄
0.8 cover/gm
Cole Bishop
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
CAR
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
DET
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
Bryce Young
-0.03 EPA/att
Jared Goff◄
0.14 EPA/att
Chuba Hubbard
-0.05 EPA/tch
Jahmyr Gibbs◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Tetairoa McMillan
0.17 EPA/tgt
Amon-Ra St. Brown◄
0.28 EPA/tgt
Tommy Tremble
0.15 EPA/tgt
Sam LaPorta◄
0.54 EPA/tgt
Average
6.4% sack rate
Good◄
6.3% sack rate
Lee Hunter◄
no 2025 data
Tyleik Williams
0.2 disrupt/gm
Derrick Brown
no 2025 data
Aidan Hutchinson◄
1.3 press/gm
Bobby Okereke◄
0.7 impact/gm
Derrick Barnes
0.7 impact/gm
Mike Jackson◄
1.0 cover/gm
D.J. Reed
0.5 cover/gm
Nick Scott◄
0.4 cover/gm
Chuck Clark
0.3 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
BAL
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
PIT
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Lamar Jackson
0.04 EPA/att
Aaron Rodgers◄
0.04 EPA/att
Derrick Henry
0.02 EPA/tch
Jaylen Warren◄
0.03 EPA/tch
Zay Flowers◄
0.32 EPA/tgt
DK Metcalf
0.26 EPA/tgt
Mark Andrews
0.02 EPA/tgt
Darnell Washington◄
0.24 EPA/tgt
Good◄
9.6% sack rate
Good
5.3% sack rate
Travis Jones◄
0.7 disrupt/gm
Keeanu Benton
0.6 disrupt/gm
Calais Campbell◄
0.7 press/gm
Cameron Heyward
0.4 press/gm
Roquan Smith
0.7 impact/gm
Payton Wilson◄
0.7 impact/gm
Nate Wiggins◄
0.7 cover/gm
Jalen Ramsey
0.4 cover/gm
Malaki Starks
0.5 cover/gm
Jaquan Brisker◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
CHI
OFF Balanced · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
WAS
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Caleb Williams◄
0.06 EPA/att
Jayden Daniels
-0.01 EPA/att
D'Andre Swift◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Jacory Croskey-Merritt
-0.02 EPA/tch
Rome Odunze
0.18 EPA/tgt
Terry McLaurin◄
0.36 EPA/tgt
Colston Loveland◄
0.47 EPA/tgt
Chig Okonkwo
0.13 EPA/tgt
Elite◄
4.0% sack rate
Good
7.3% sack rate
Grady Jarrett
0.3 disrupt/gm
Daron Payne◄
0.6 disrupt/gm
Montez Sweat◄
0.9 press/gm
Tim Settle
no 2025 data
Devin Bush◄
0.9 impact/gm
Odafe Oweh
0.7 impact/gm
Cam Lewis
0.2 cover/gm
Mike Sainristil◄
0.7 cover/gm
Xavier Woods
0.4 cover/gm
Nick Cross◄
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
CIN
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
ARI
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Joe Burrow◄
0.08 EPA/att
Jacoby Brissett
-0.00 EPA/att
Chase Brown
-0.04 EPA/tch
Jeremiyah Love◄
no 2025 data
Ja'Marr Chase
0.19 EPA/tgt
Marvin Harrison Jr.◄
0.31 EPA/tgt
Mike Gesicki
0.07 EPA/tgt
Trey McBride◄
0.39 EPA/tgt
Good◄
5.3% sack rate
Bad
8.3% sack rate
Dexter Lawrence II
0.3 disrupt/gm
Roy Lopez◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Boye Mafe
0.2 press/gm
Josh Sweat◄
no 2025 data
Demetrius Knight Jr.◄
0.8 impact/gm
Jack Gibbens
0.7 impact/gm
Dax Hill
0.5 cover/gm
Denzel Burke◄
0.7 cover/gm
Jordan Battle◄
0.7 cover/gm
Budda Baker
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
PHI
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · four-man rush
LA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Jalen Hurts
0.05 EPA/att
Matthew Stafford◄
0.19 EPA/att
Saquon Barkley
-0.08 EPA/tch
Kyren Williams◄
0.04 EPA/tch
DeVonta Smith
0.38 EPA/tgt
Puka Nacua◄
0.59 EPA/tgt
Dallas Goedert◄
0.36 EPA/tgt
Colby Parkinson
0.17 EPA/tgt
Average
6.6% sack rate
Elite◄
3.7% sack rate
Average◄
no data
Poona Ford
0.3 disrupt/gm
Jalen Carter◄
no 2025 data
Kobie Turner
0.6 press/gm
Zack Baun
1.0 impact/gm
Byron Young◄
1.1 impact/gm
Quinyon Mitchell◄
0.7 cover/gm
Jaylen Watson
0.4 cover/gm
Andrew Mukuba
0.4 cover/gm
Kamren Kinchens◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
TEN
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
IND
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Cam Ward
-0.15 EPA/att
Daniel Jones◄
0.11 EPA/att
Tony Pollard
-0.10 EPA/tch
Jonathan Taylor◄
0.07 EPA/tch
Carnell Tate
no 2025 data
Alec Pierce◄
0.49 EPA/tgt
Gunnar Helm
0.05 EPA/tgt
Tyler Warren◄
0.12 EPA/tgt
Bad
8.9% sack rate
Good◄
5.0% sack rate
Jeffery Simmons◄
1.5 disrupt/gm
Grover Stewart
0.3 disrupt/gm
Jermaine Johnson II
0.3 press/gm
Laiatu Latu◄
0.9 press/gm
Cody Barton◄
0.7 impact/gm
Akeem Davis-Gaither
0.5 impact/gm
Alontae Taylor◄
0.6 cover/gm
Sauce Gardner
0.5 cover/gm
Amani Hooker
0.5 cover/gm
Cam Bynum◄
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
NYJ
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
DEN
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
Geno Smith
-0.12 EPA/att
Bo Nix◄
0.08 EPA/att
Breece Hall
-0.04 EPA/tch
J.K. Dobbins◄
-0.00 EPA/tch
Garrett Wilson
-0.02 EPA/tgt
Jaylen Waddle◄
0.27 EPA/tgt
Mason Taylor◄
0.12 EPA/tgt
Evan Engram
0.04 EPA/tgt
Bad
10.8% sack rate
Elite◄
3.6% sack rate
Harrison Phillips
0.2 disrupt/gm
D.J. Jones◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Will McDonald IV
0.9 press/gm
Zach Allen◄
1.1 press/gm
Jamien Sherwood
1.0 impact/gm
Nik Bonitto◄
1.2 impact/gm
Nahshon Wright
0.8 cover/gm
Riley Moss
0.8 cover/gm
Dane Belton
0.5 cover/gm
Talanoa Hufanga◄
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
DAL
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
SF
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Dak Prescott◄
0.15 EPA/att
Brock Purdy
0.13 EPA/att
Javonte Williams
-0.03 EPA/tch
Christian McCaffrey◄
0.04 EPA/tch
CeeDee Lamb◄
0.20 EPA/tgt
Mike Evans
0.06 EPA/tgt
Jake Ferguson
0.16 EPA/tgt
George Kittle◄
0.53 EPA/tgt
Elite◄
4.7% sack rate
Average
4.5% sack rate
Otito Ogbonnia
0.3 disrupt/gm
Osa Odighizuwa◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Quinnen Williams◄
no 2025 data
Keion White
0.2 press/gm
Dee Winters◄
0.8 impact/gm
Luke Gifford
0.1 impact/gm
Cobie Durant◄
0.5 cover/gm
Deommodore Lenoir
0.3 cover/gm
Malik Hooker
0.2 cover/gm
Ji'Ayir Brown◄
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
NO
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
NE
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Tyler Shough
0.00 EPA/att
Drake Maye◄
0.25 EPA/att
Travis Etienne Jr.
-0.03 EPA/tch
Rhamondre Stevenson◄
-0.02 EPA/tch
Chris Olave
0.19 EPA/tgt
Romeo Doubs◄
0.30 EPA/tgt
Juwan Johnson
0.29 EPA/tgt
Hunter Henry◄
0.36 EPA/tgt
Bad
7.7% sack rate
Average◄
8.7% sack rate
Davon Godchaux
0.1 disrupt/gm
Cory Durden◄
0.2 disrupt/gm
Colby Wooden
0.2 press/gm
Christian Barmore◄
no 2025 data
Kaden Elliss◄
1.0 impact/gm
Dre'Mont Jones
0.6 impact/gm
Kool-Aid McKinstry◄
0.9 cover/gm
Carlton Davis III
0.4 cover/gm
Justin Reid◄
0.5 cover/gm
Craig Woodson
0.3 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
KC
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
MIN
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Patrick Mahomes◄
0.10 EPA/att
Kyler Murray
0.02 EPA/att
Kenneth Walker III◄
-0.02 EPA/tch
Aaron Jones Sr.
-0.04 EPA/tch
Rashee Rice◄
0.15 EPA/tgt
Justin Jefferson
-0.08 EPA/tgt
Travis Kelce◄
0.32 EPA/tgt
T.J. Hockenson
0.17 EPA/tgt
Average◄
7.4% sack rate
Bad
11.0% sack rate
Khyiris Tonga
0.1 disrupt/gm
Caleb Banks◄
no 2025 data
George Karlaftis
0.8 press/gm
Levi Drake Rodriguez
no 2025 data
Drue Tranquill
0.7 impact/gm
Eric Wilson◄
1.1 impact/gm
L'Jarius Sneed
0.2 cover/gm
Byron Murphy Jr.◄
0.4 cover/gm
Alohi Gilman
0.5 cover/gm
Joshua Metellus◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
GB
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
LV
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Jordan Love◄
0.18 EPA/att
Kirk Cousins
-0.00 EPA/att
MarShawn Lloyd◄
no 2025 data
Ashton Jeanty
-0.20 EPA/tch
Christian Watson◄
0.38 EPA/tgt
Tre Tucker
0.18 EPA/tgt
Tucker Kraft◄
0.62 EPA/tgt
Brock Bowers
0.22 EPA/tgt
Average◄
5.6% sack rate
Bad
11.1% sack rate
Javon Hargrave◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Adam Butler
0.3 disrupt/gm
Karl Brooks
no 2025 data
Jonah Laulu
no 2025 data
Edgerrin Cooper
0.6 impact/gm
Quay Walker◄
0.9 impact/gm
Keisean Nixon◄
0.7 cover/gm
Eric Stokes
0.2 cover/gm
Evan Williams◄
0.6 cover/gm
Jeremy Chinn
0.3 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
HOU
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
ATL
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
C.J. Stroud◄
0.08 EPA/att
Michael Penix Jr.
0.01 EPA/att
David Montgomery
0.02 EPA/tch
Bijan Robinson◄
0.03 EPA/tch
Nico Collins◄
0.26 EPA/tgt
Drake London
0.18 EPA/tgt
Dalton Schultz◄
0.29 EPA/tgt
Kyle Pitts Sr.
0.18 EPA/tgt
Average
5.1% sack rate
Elite◄
4.6% sack rate
Tommy Togiai
0.4 disrupt/gm
Gervon Dexter Sr.◄
0.7 disrupt/gm
Will Anderson Jr.◄
1.2 press/gm
Brandon Dorlus
0.8 press/gm
Henry To'oTo'o◄
0.8 impact/gm
Divine Deablo
0.7 impact/gm
Kamari Lassiter◄
1.0 cover/gm
A.J. Terrell Jr.
0.5 cover/gm
Reed Blankenship
0.4 cover/gm
Jessie Bates III◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
Winner accuracy by grade, 1070 games. A high grade means a clearer mismatch — but the books know it too, so higher accuracy here does not mean a betting edge.
All validated trends · out-of-sample (2020–2026)
NFL · Members
The full board, confidence ratings, and daily plays — plus the complete track record. New plays every morning. The track record and featured picks above stay free.
NFL Pass
$9.99/mo
Just NFL
All-AccessBest value
$29.99/mo
All 5 sports
Secure checkout via Stripe. Cancel anytime. 21+. Bet responsibly.
