We simulate every NFL game on opponent-adjusted net EPA — offense and defense on both sides set the projected margin, scoring rates set the total — then post only the handful we have the most conviction in. Every posted game gets a grade and a projected score, and every one is graded against the real result.
Graded games
75.9%
the games we post · B+ or better
Full slate
62.5%
every game · n=1070
Market
67.4%
closing line · it’s better
Margin error
10.5
points, full slate
Accuracy is measured against the actual final score — did we pick the winner, and how many points off was the margin — not against the betting line. Across 2019–2025 the simulator calls 62.5% of all games straight up. The market’s closing line calls 67.4% — the NFL is the most efficient market in sports, so the full slate is worse than the market and we say so. It is a prediction tool, not a betting edge: it does not beat the spread. Analysis and entertainment, 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.
Board went 5-0 · full slate 10-6 straight up
Our 5 highest-conviction calls out of 16 games this week. We post at most 6, and nothing below a B+ — a thin week posts fewer rather than padding the board.
ARI
SF
17
28
Offense
SF
Defense
SF
Called it ✓
ARI
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
SF
Balanced · mixed sets
Every game we simulated this week, highest conviction first. The board above is only the ones that cleared B+— here’s the whole week so nothing’s hidden.
ARI
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
SF
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Jacoby Brissett
-0.00 EPA/att
Brock Purdy
The grade is our conviction in our own call — how big the projected margin is. Here is how each grade actually performed across 2019–2025:
Net EPA — opponent-adjusted expected points added on offense and defense, both sides of the ball — sets the projected margin. Scoring rates set the total. Ratings are computed as of that week’s kickoff, using only games already played, so nothing is graded with hindsight. Early in the season a team carries its prior-year rating until it has enough games to stand on its own.
It does not beat the spread. The NFL market is the sharpest in sports. We publish this because the projection and the matchup are interesting and we grade ourselves honestly against the real score — not because it prints money.
Also on our board
Separate from the simulator: situational trends mined from 1999–2026 seasons and validated out-of-sample. Only the ones that actually hold up.
The Sizzlin NFL Simulator is analysis and entertainment — not betting advice or a guaranteed outcome. 21+. 1-800-GAMBLER.
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Jacoby Brissett
-0.00 EPA/att
Brock Purdy◄
0.13 EPA/att
Jeremiyah Love
no 2025 data
Christian McCaffrey◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Marvin Harrison Jr.◄
0.31 EPA/tgt
Mike Evans
0.06 EPA/tgt
Trey McBride
0.39 EPA/tgt
George Kittle◄
0.53 EPA/tgt
Bad
8.3% sack rate
Average◄
4.5% sack rate
Roy Lopez
0.4 disrupt/gm
Osa Odighizuwa◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Josh Sweat◄
no 2025 data
Keion White
0.2 press/gm
Jack Gibbens◄
0.7 impact/gm
Luke Gifford
0.1 impact/gm
Denzel Burke◄
0.7 cover/gm
Deommodore Lenoir
0.3 cover/gm
Budda Baker
0.5 cover/gm
Ji'Ayir Brown◄
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
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0.13 EPA/att
Jeremiyah Love
no 2025 data
Christian McCaffrey◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Marvin Harrison Jr.◄
0.31 EPA/tgt
Mike Evans
0.06 EPA/tgt
Trey McBride
0.39 EPA/tgt
George Kittle◄
0.53 EPA/tgt
Bad
8.3% sack rate
Average◄
4.5% sack rate
Roy Lopez
0.4 disrupt/gm
Osa Odighizuwa◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Josh Sweat◄
no 2025 data
Keion White
0.2 press/gm
Jack Gibbens◄
0.7 impact/gm
Luke Gifford
0.1 impact/gm
Denzel Burke◄
0.7 cover/gm
Deommodore Lenoir
0.3 cover/gm
Budda Baker
0.5 cover/gm
Ji'Ayir Brown◄
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
KC
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
NYJ
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Patrick Mahomes◄
0.10 EPA/att
Geno Smith
-0.12 EPA/att
Kenneth Walker III◄
-0.02 EPA/tch
Breece Hall
-0.04 EPA/tch
Rashee Rice◄
0.15 EPA/tgt
Garrett Wilson
-0.02 EPA/tgt
Travis Kelce◄
0.32 EPA/tgt
Mason Taylor
0.12 EPA/tgt
Average◄
7.4% sack rate
Bad
10.8% sack rate
Khyiris Tonga
0.1 disrupt/gm
Harrison Phillips◄
0.2 disrupt/gm
George Karlaftis
0.8 press/gm
Will McDonald IV◄
0.9 press/gm
Drue Tranquill
0.7 impact/gm
Jamien Sherwood◄
1.0 impact/gm
L'Jarius Sneed
0.2 cover/gm
Nahshon Wright◄
0.8 cover/gm
Alohi Gilman◄
0.5 cover/gm
Dane Belton
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
WAS
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
PHI
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · four-man rush
Jayden Daniels
-0.01 EPA/att
Jalen Hurts◄
0.05 EPA/att
Jacory Croskey-Merritt◄
-0.02 EPA/tch
Saquon Barkley
-0.08 EPA/tch
Terry McLaurin
0.36 EPA/tgt
DeVonta Smith◄
0.38 EPA/tgt
Chig Okonkwo
0.13 EPA/tgt
Dallas Goedert◄
0.36 EPA/tgt
Good◄
7.3% sack rate
Average
6.6% sack rate
Daron Payne◄
0.6 disrupt/gm
Average
no data
Tim Settle
no 2025 data
Jalen Carter
no 2025 data
Odafe Oweh
0.7 impact/gm
Zack Baun◄
1.0 impact/gm
Mike Sainristil◄
0.7 cover/gm
Quinyon Mitchell
0.7 cover/gm
Nick Cross◄
0.5 cover/gm
Andrew Mukuba
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
NE
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
DAL
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Drake Maye◄
0.25 EPA/att
Dak Prescott
0.15 EPA/att
Rhamondre Stevenson◄
-0.02 EPA/tch
Javonte Williams
-0.03 EPA/tch
Romeo Doubs◄
0.30 EPA/tgt
CeeDee Lamb
0.20 EPA/tgt
Hunter Henry◄
0.36 EPA/tgt
Jake Ferguson
0.16 EPA/tgt
Average
8.7% sack rate
Elite◄
4.7% sack rate
Cory Durden
0.2 disrupt/gm
Otito Ogbonnia◄
0.3 disrupt/gm
Christian Barmore
no 2025 data
Quinnen Williams
no 2025 data
Dre'Mont Jones
0.6 impact/gm
Dee Winters◄
0.8 impact/gm
Carlton Davis III
0.4 cover/gm
Cobie Durant◄
0.5 cover/gm
Craig Woodson◄
0.3 cover/gm
Malik Hooker
0.2 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
LV
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
LAC
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Kirk Cousins
-0.00 EPA/att
Justin Herbert◄
0.02 EPA/att
Ashton Jeanty
-0.20 EPA/tch
Omarion Hampton◄
-0.01 EPA/tch
Tre Tucker◄
0.18 EPA/tgt
Ladd McConkey
0.05 EPA/tgt
Brock Bowers◄
0.22 EPA/tgt
Charlie Kolar
0.15 EPA/tgt
Bad
11.1% sack rate
Bad◄
9.5% sack rate
Adam Butler
0.3 disrupt/gm
Dalvin Tomlinson◄
no 2025 data
Jonah Laulu
no 2025 data
Teair Tart
no 2025 data
Quay Walker◄
0.9 impact/gm
Daiyan Henley
0.8 impact/gm
Eric Stokes
0.2 cover/gm
Cam Hart◄
0.5 cover/gm
Jeremy Chinn
0.3 cover/gm
Derwin James Jr.◄
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
ATL
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
JAX
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Michael Penix Jr.
0.01 EPA/att
Trevor Lawrence◄
0.05 EPA/att
Bijan Robinson◄
0.03 EPA/tch
Bhayshul Tuten
-0.03 EPA/tch
Drake London◄
0.18 EPA/tgt
Brian Thomas Jr.
0.14 EPA/tgt
Kyle Pitts Sr.
0.18 EPA/tgt
Brenton Strange◄
0.40 EPA/tgt
Elite◄
4.6% sack rate
Bad
6.8% sack rate
Gervon Dexter Sr.◄
0.7 disrupt/gm
DaVon Hamilton
0.2 disrupt/gm
Brandon Dorlus
0.8 press/gm
Josh Hines-Allen◄
1.0 press/gm
Divine Deablo
0.7 impact/gm
Foyesade Oluokun◄
0.9 impact/gm
A.J. Terrell Jr.
0.5 cover/gm
Montaric Brown◄
0.7 cover/gm
Jessie Bates III
0.6 cover/gm
Antonio Johnson◄
0.8 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
DET
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
GB
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Jared Goff
0.14 EPA/att
Jordan Love◄
0.18 EPA/att
Jahmyr Gibbs◄
0.04 EPA/tch
MarShawn Lloyd
no 2025 data
Amon-Ra St. Brown
0.28 EPA/tgt
Christian Watson◄
0.38 EPA/tgt
Sam LaPorta
0.54 EPA/tgt
Tucker Kraft◄
0.62 EPA/tgt
Good◄
6.3% sack rate
Average
5.6% sack rate
Tyleik Williams
0.2 disrupt/gm
Javon Hargrave◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Aidan Hutchinson◄
1.3 press/gm
Karl Brooks
no 2025 data
Derrick Barnes◄
0.7 impact/gm
Edgerrin Cooper
0.6 impact/gm
D.J. Reed
0.5 cover/gm
Keisean Nixon◄
0.7 cover/gm
Chuck Clark
0.3 cover/gm
Evan Williams◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
BAL
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
CLE
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Lamar Jackson
0.04 EPA/att
Deshaun Watson◄
no 2025 data
Derrick Henry◄
0.02 EPA/tch
Quinshon Judkins
-0.10 EPA/tch
Zay Flowers◄
0.32 EPA/tgt
Jerry Jeudy
-0.24 EPA/tgt
Mark Andrews◄
0.02 EPA/tgt
Harold Fannin Jr.
0.01 EPA/tgt
Good◄
9.6% sack rate
Bad
8.4% sack rate
Travis Jones◄
0.7 disrupt/gm
Mason Graham
0.4 disrupt/gm
Calais Campbell
0.7 press/gm
Jared Verse◄
0.9 press/gm
Roquan Smith
0.7 impact/gm
Carson Schwesinger◄
0.9 impact/gm
Nate Wiggins
0.7 cover/gm
Tyson Campbell
0.7 cover/gm
Malaki Starks◄
0.5 cover/gm
Grant Delpit
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
SEA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
NYG
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Sam Darnold◄
0.11 EPA/att
Jaxson Dart
0.01 EPA/att
Brady Russell◄
-0.01 EPA/tch
Cam Skattebo
-0.05 EPA/tch
Jaxon Smith-Njigba◄
0.47 EPA/tgt
Malik Nabers
0.04 EPA/tgt
AJ Barner◄
0.32 EPA/tgt
Isaiah Likely
0.10 EPA/tgt
Average◄
5.3% sack rate
Bad
8.4% sack rate
Byron Murphy II◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
DJ Reader
0.1 disrupt/gm
Leonard Williams◄
0.8 press/gm
Shelby Harris
0.2 press/gm
DeMarcus Lawrence
0.8 impact/gm
Brian Burns◄
1.8 impact/gm
Josh Jobe
0.6 cover/gm
Dru Phillips◄
0.6 cover/gm
Ty Okada◄
0.5 cover/gm
Tyler Nubin
0.3 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
TB
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
NO
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Baker Mayfield
0.00 EPA/att
Tyler Shough◄
0.00 EPA/att
Bucky Irving
-0.10 EPA/tch
Travis Etienne Jr.◄
-0.03 EPA/tch
Emeka Egbuka
0.05 EPA/tgt
Chris Olave◄
0.19 EPA/tgt
Cade Otton
0.03 EPA/tgt
Juwan Johnson◄
0.29 EPA/tgt
Average◄
6.4% sack rate
Bad
7.7% sack rate
Vita Vea◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Davon Godchaux
0.1 disrupt/gm
Calijah Kancey◄
no 2025 data
Colby Wooden
0.2 press/gm
Yaya Diaby
0.9 impact/gm
Kaden Elliss◄
1.0 impact/gm
Jacob Parrish
0.4 cover/gm
Kool-Aid McKinstry◄
0.9 cover/gm
Antoine Winfield Jr.◄
0.6 cover/gm
Justin Reid
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
PIT
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
HOU
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Aaron Rodgers
0.04 EPA/att
C.J. Stroud◄
0.08 EPA/att
Jaylen Warren◄
0.03 EPA/tch
David Montgomery
0.02 EPA/tch
DK Metcalf
0.26 EPA/tgt
Nico Collins◄
0.26 EPA/tgt
Darnell Washington
0.24 EPA/tgt
Dalton Schultz◄
0.29 EPA/tgt
Good◄
5.3% sack rate
Average
5.1% sack rate
Keeanu Benton◄
0.6 disrupt/gm
Tommy Togiai
0.4 disrupt/gm
Cameron Heyward
0.4 press/gm
Will Anderson Jr.◄
1.2 press/gm
Payton Wilson
0.7 impact/gm
Henry To'oTo'o◄
0.8 impact/gm
Jalen Ramsey
0.4 cover/gm
Kamari Lassiter◄
1.0 cover/gm
Jaquan Brisker◄
0.6 cover/gm
Reed Blankenship
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
MIA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
BUF
OFF Run-heavy · under-center
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Malik Willis◄
0.13 EPA/att
Josh Allen
0.11 EPA/att
De'Von Achane
0.01 EPA/tch
James Cook III◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Malik Washington
-0.10 EPA/tgt
DJ Moore◄
0.12 EPA/tgt
Greg Dulcich
0.34 EPA/tgt
Dalton Kincaid◄
0.58 EPA/tgt
Good
7.4% sack rate
Good◄
7.5% sack rate
Jordan Phillips
0.2 disrupt/gm
Deone Walker◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Chop Robinson
no 2025 data
T.J. Sanders
no 2025 data
Jordyn Brooks◄
1.2 impact/gm
Greg Rousseau
0.7 impact/gm
Jason Marshall Jr.
0.3 cover/gm
Dee Alford◄
0.8 cover/gm
Dante Trader Jr.
0.2 cover/gm
Cole Bishop◄
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
CIN
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
TEN
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Joe Burrow◄
0.08 EPA/att
Cam Ward
-0.15 EPA/att
Chase Brown◄
-0.04 EPA/tch
Tony Pollard
-0.10 EPA/tch
Ja'Marr Chase◄
0.19 EPA/tgt
Carnell Tate
no 2025 data
Mike Gesicki◄
0.07 EPA/tgt
Gunnar Helm
0.05 EPA/tgt
Good◄
5.3% sack rate
Bad
8.9% sack rate
Dexter Lawrence II
0.3 disrupt/gm
Jeffery Simmons◄
1.5 disrupt/gm
Boye Mafe
0.2 press/gm
Jermaine Johnson II◄
0.3 press/gm
Demetrius Knight Jr.◄
0.8 impact/gm
Cody Barton
0.7 impact/gm
Dax Hill
0.5 cover/gm
Alontae Taylor◄
0.6 cover/gm
Jordan Battle◄
0.7 cover/gm
Amani Hooker
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
DEN
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
CHI
OFF Balanced · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
Bo Nix◄
0.08 EPA/att
Caleb Williams
0.06 EPA/att
J.K. Dobbins
-0.00 EPA/tch
D'Andre Swift◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Jaylen Waddle◄
0.27 EPA/tgt
Rome Odunze
0.18 EPA/tgt
Evan Engram
0.04 EPA/tgt
Colston Loveland◄
0.47 EPA/tgt
Elite
3.6% sack rate
Elite◄
4.0% sack rate
D.J. Jones◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Grady Jarrett
0.3 disrupt/gm
Zach Allen◄
1.1 press/gm
Montez Sweat
0.9 press/gm
Nik Bonitto◄
1.2 impact/gm
Devin Bush
0.9 impact/gm
Riley Moss◄
0.8 cover/gm
Cam Lewis
0.2 cover/gm
Talanoa Hufanga◄
0.7 cover/gm
Xavier Woods
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
LA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
IND
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Matthew Stafford◄
0.19 EPA/att
Daniel Jones
0.11 EPA/att
Kyren Williams
0.04 EPA/tch
Jonathan Taylor◄
0.07 EPA/tch
Puka Nacua◄
0.59 EPA/tgt
Alec Pierce
0.49 EPA/tgt
Colby Parkinson◄
0.17 EPA/tgt
Tyler Warren
0.12 EPA/tgt
Elite◄
3.7% sack rate
Good
5.0% sack rate
Poona Ford
0.3 disrupt/gm
Grover Stewart◄
0.3 disrupt/gm
Kobie Turner
0.6 press/gm
Laiatu Latu◄
0.9 press/gm
Byron Young◄
1.1 impact/gm
Akeem Davis-Gaither
0.5 impact/gm
Jaylen Watson
0.4 cover/gm
Sauce Gardner◄
0.5 cover/gm
Kamren Kinchens
0.6 cover/gm
Cam Bynum◄
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
MIN
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
CAR
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Kyler Murray◄
0.02 EPA/att
Bryce Young
-0.03 EPA/att
Aaron Jones Sr.◄
-0.04 EPA/tch
Chuba Hubbard
-0.05 EPA/tch
Justin Jefferson
-0.08 EPA/tgt
Tetairoa McMillan◄
0.17 EPA/tgt
T.J. Hockenson◄
0.17 EPA/tgt
Tommy Tremble
0.15 EPA/tgt
Bad
11.0% sack rate
Average◄
6.4% sack rate
Caleb Banks
no 2025 data
Lee Hunter
no 2025 data
Levi Drake Rodriguez
no 2025 data
Derrick Brown
no 2025 data
Eric Wilson◄
1.1 impact/gm
Bobby Okereke
0.7 impact/gm
Byron Murphy Jr.
0.4 cover/gm
Mike Jackson◄
1.0 cover/gm
Joshua Metellus◄
0.6 cover/gm
Nick Scott
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
Winner accuracy by grade, 1070 games. A high grade means a clearer mismatch — but the books know it too, so higher accuracy here does not mean a betting edge.
All validated trends · out-of-sample (2020–2026)
NFL · Members
The full board, confidence ratings, and daily plays — plus the complete track record. New plays every morning. The track record and featured picks above stay free.
NFL Pass
$9.99/mo
Just NFL
All-AccessBest value
$29.99/mo
All 5 sports
Secure checkout via Stripe. Cancel anytime. 21+. Bet responsibly.
