We simulate every NFL game on opponent-adjusted net EPA — offense and defense on both sides set the projected margin, scoring rates set the total — then post only the handful we have the most conviction in. Every posted game gets a grade and a projected score, and every one is graded against the real result.
Graded games
75.9%
the games we post · B+ or better
Full slate
62.5%
every game · n=1070
Market
67.4%
closing line · it’s better
Margin error
10.5
points, full slate
Accuracy is measured against the actual final score — did we pick the winner, and how many points off was the margin — not against the betting line. Across 2019–2025 the simulator calls 62.5% of all games straight up. The market’s closing line calls 67.4% — the NFL is the most efficient market in sports, so the full slate is worse than the market and we say so. It is a prediction tool, not a betting edge: it does not beat the spread. Analysis and entertainment, 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.
Board went 1-1 · full slate 10-6 straight up
Our 2 highest-conviction calls out of 16 games this week. We post at most 6, and nothing below a B+ — a thin week posts fewer rather than padding the board.
CHI
KC
19
30
Offense
KC
Defense
KC
Called it ✓
CHI
OFF Balanced · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
KC
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Every game we simulated this week, highest conviction first. The board above is only the ones that cleared B+— here’s the whole week so nothing’s hidden.
CHI
OFF Balanced · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
KC
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Caleb Williams
0.06 EPA/att
Patrick Mahomes
The grade is our conviction in our own call — how big the projected margin is. Here is how each grade actually performed across 2019–2025:
Net EPA — opponent-adjusted expected points added on offense and defense, both sides of the ball — sets the projected margin. Scoring rates set the total. Ratings are computed as of that week’s kickoff, using only games already played, so nothing is graded with hindsight. Early in the season a team carries its prior-year rating until it has enough games to stand on its own.
It does not beat the spread. The NFL market is the sharpest in sports. We publish this because the projection and the matchup are interesting and we grade ourselves honestly against the real score — not because it prints money.
Also on our board
Separate from the simulator: situational trends mined from 1999–2026 seasons and validated out-of-sample. Only the ones that actually hold up.
The Sizzlin NFL Simulator is analysis and entertainment — not betting advice or a guaranteed outcome. 21+. 1-800-GAMBLER.
Caleb Williams
0.06 EPA/att
Patrick Mahomes◄
0.10 EPA/att
D'Andre Swift◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Kenneth Walker III
-0.02 EPA/tch
Rome Odunze◄
0.18 EPA/tgt
Rashee Rice
0.15 EPA/tgt
Colston Loveland◄
0.47 EPA/tgt
Travis Kelce
0.32 EPA/tgt
Elite◄
4.0% sack rate
Average
7.4% sack rate
Grady Jarrett◄
0.3 disrupt/gm
Khyiris Tonga
0.1 disrupt/gm
Montez Sweat◄
0.9 press/gm
George Karlaftis
0.8 press/gm
Devin Bush◄
0.9 impact/gm
Drue Tranquill
0.7 impact/gm
Cam Lewis
0.2 cover/gm
L'Jarius Sneed◄
0.2 cover/gm
Xavier Woods
0.4 cover/gm
Alohi Gilman◄
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
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0.10 EPA/att
D'Andre Swift◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Kenneth Walker III
-0.02 EPA/tch
Rome Odunze◄
0.18 EPA/tgt
Rashee Rice
0.15 EPA/tgt
Colston Loveland◄
0.47 EPA/tgt
Travis Kelce
0.32 EPA/tgt
Elite◄
4.0% sack rate
Average
7.4% sack rate
Grady Jarrett◄
0.3 disrupt/gm
Khyiris Tonga
0.1 disrupt/gm
Montez Sweat◄
0.9 press/gm
George Karlaftis
0.8 press/gm
Devin Bush◄
0.9 impact/gm
Drue Tranquill
0.7 impact/gm
Cam Lewis
0.2 cover/gm
L'Jarius Sneed◄
0.2 cover/gm
Xavier Woods
0.4 cover/gm
Alohi Gilman◄
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
HOU
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
JAX
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
C.J. Stroud◄
0.08 EPA/att
Trevor Lawrence
0.05 EPA/att
David Montgomery◄
0.02 EPA/tch
Bhayshul Tuten
-0.03 EPA/tch
Nico Collins◄
0.26 EPA/tgt
Brian Thomas Jr.
0.14 EPA/tgt
Dalton Schultz
0.29 EPA/tgt
Brenton Strange◄
0.40 EPA/tgt
Average◄
5.1% sack rate
Bad
6.8% sack rate
Tommy Togiai◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
DaVon Hamilton
0.2 disrupt/gm
Will Anderson Jr.◄
1.2 press/gm
Josh Hines-Allen
1.0 press/gm
Henry To'oTo'o
0.8 impact/gm
Foyesade Oluokun◄
0.9 impact/gm
Kamari Lassiter◄
1.0 cover/gm
Montaric Brown
0.7 cover/gm
Reed Blankenship
0.4 cover/gm
Antonio Johnson◄
0.8 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
NYG
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
SF
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Jaxson Dart
0.01 EPA/att
Brock Purdy◄
0.13 EPA/att
Cam Skattebo
-0.05 EPA/tch
Christian McCaffrey◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Malik Nabers
0.04 EPA/tgt
Mike Evans◄
0.06 EPA/tgt
Isaiah Likely
0.10 EPA/tgt
George Kittle◄
0.53 EPA/tgt
Bad
8.4% sack rate
Average◄
4.5% sack rate
DJ Reader
0.1 disrupt/gm
Osa Odighizuwa◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Shelby Harris◄
0.2 press/gm
Keion White
0.2 press/gm
Brian Burns◄
1.8 impact/gm
Luke Gifford
0.1 impact/gm
Dru Phillips◄
0.6 cover/gm
Deommodore Lenoir
0.3 cover/gm
Tyler Nubin
0.3 cover/gm
Ji'Ayir Brown◄
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
LA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
CIN
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Matthew Stafford◄
0.19 EPA/att
Joe Burrow
0.08 EPA/att
Kyren Williams◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Chase Brown
-0.04 EPA/tch
Puka Nacua◄
0.59 EPA/tgt
Ja'Marr Chase
0.19 EPA/tgt
Colby Parkinson◄
0.17 EPA/tgt
Mike Gesicki
0.07 EPA/tgt
Elite◄
3.7% sack rate
Good
5.3% sack rate
Poona Ford
0.3 disrupt/gm
Dexter Lawrence II
0.3 disrupt/gm
Kobie Turner◄
0.6 press/gm
Boye Mafe
0.2 press/gm
Byron Young◄
1.1 impact/gm
Demetrius Knight Jr.
0.8 impact/gm
Jaylen Watson
0.4 cover/gm
Dax Hill◄
0.5 cover/gm
Kamren Kinchens
0.6 cover/gm
Jordan Battle◄
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
IND
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
BAL
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Daniel Jones◄
0.11 EPA/att
Lamar Jackson
0.04 EPA/att
Jonathan Taylor◄
0.07 EPA/tch
Derrick Henry
0.02 EPA/tch
Alec Pierce◄
0.49 EPA/tgt
Zay Flowers
0.32 EPA/tgt
Tyler Warren◄
0.12 EPA/tgt
Mark Andrews
0.02 EPA/tgt
Good◄
5.0% sack rate
Good
9.6% sack rate
Grover Stewart
0.3 disrupt/gm
Travis Jones◄
0.7 disrupt/gm
Laiatu Latu◄
0.9 press/gm
Calais Campbell
0.7 press/gm
Akeem Davis-Gaither
0.5 impact/gm
Roquan Smith◄
0.7 impact/gm
Sauce Gardner
0.5 cover/gm
Nate Wiggins◄
0.7 cover/gm
Cam Bynum◄
0.7 cover/gm
Malaki Starks
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
DEN
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
MIA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Bo Nix
0.08 EPA/att
Malik Willis◄
0.13 EPA/att
J.K. Dobbins
-0.00 EPA/tch
De'Von Achane◄
0.01 EPA/tch
Jaylen Waddle◄
0.27 EPA/tgt
Malik Washington
-0.10 EPA/tgt
Evan Engram
0.04 EPA/tgt
Greg Dulcich◄
0.34 EPA/tgt
Elite◄
3.6% sack rate
Good
7.4% sack rate
D.J. Jones◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Jordan Phillips
0.2 disrupt/gm
Zach Allen◄
1.1 press/gm
Chop Robinson
no 2025 data
Nik Bonitto
1.2 impact/gm
Jordyn Brooks◄
1.2 impact/gm
Riley Moss◄
0.8 cover/gm
Jason Marshall Jr.
0.3 cover/gm
Talanoa Hufanga◄
0.7 cover/gm
Dante Trader Jr.
0.2 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
TEN
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
CLE
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Cam Ward
-0.15 EPA/att
Deshaun Watson◄
no 2025 data
Tony Pollard◄
-0.10 EPA/tch
Quinshon Judkins
-0.10 EPA/tch
Carnell Tate◄
no 2025 data
Jerry Jeudy
-0.24 EPA/tgt
Gunnar Helm◄
0.05 EPA/tgt
Harold Fannin Jr.
0.01 EPA/tgt
Bad◄
8.9% sack rate
Bad
8.4% sack rate
Jeffery Simmons◄
1.5 disrupt/gm
Mason Graham
0.4 disrupt/gm
Jermaine Johnson II
0.3 press/gm
Jared Verse◄
0.9 press/gm
Cody Barton
0.7 impact/gm
Carson Schwesinger◄
0.9 impact/gm
Alontae Taylor
0.6 cover/gm
Tyson Campbell◄
0.7 cover/gm
Amani Hooker◄
0.5 cover/gm
Grant Delpit
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
ATL
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
DET
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
Michael Penix Jr.
0.01 EPA/att
Jared Goff◄
0.14 EPA/att
Bijan Robinson
0.03 EPA/tch
Jahmyr Gibbs◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Drake London
0.18 EPA/tgt
Amon-Ra St. Brown◄
0.28 EPA/tgt
Kyle Pitts Sr.
0.18 EPA/tgt
Sam LaPorta◄
0.54 EPA/tgt
Elite◄
4.6% sack rate
Good
6.3% sack rate
Gervon Dexter Sr.◄
0.7 disrupt/gm
Tyleik Williams
0.2 disrupt/gm
Brandon Dorlus
0.8 press/gm
Aidan Hutchinson◄
1.3 press/gm
Divine Deablo◄
0.7 impact/gm
Derrick Barnes
0.7 impact/gm
A.J. Terrell Jr.
0.5 cover/gm
D.J. Reed◄
0.5 cover/gm
Jessie Bates III◄
0.6 cover/gm
Chuck Clark
0.3 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
CAR
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
SEA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Bryce Young
-0.03 EPA/att
Sam Darnold◄
0.11 EPA/att
Chuba Hubbard
-0.05 EPA/tch
Brady Russell◄
-0.01 EPA/tch
Tetairoa McMillan
0.17 EPA/tgt
Jaxon Smith-Njigba◄
0.47 EPA/tgt
Tommy Tremble
0.15 EPA/tgt
AJ Barner◄
0.32 EPA/tgt
Average
6.4% sack rate
Average◄
5.3% sack rate
Lee Hunter
no 2025 data
Byron Murphy II◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Derrick Brown
no 2025 data
Leonard Williams
0.8 press/gm
Bobby Okereke
0.7 impact/gm
DeMarcus Lawrence◄
0.8 impact/gm
Mike Jackson◄
1.0 cover/gm
Josh Jobe
0.6 cover/gm
Nick Scott
0.4 cover/gm
Ty Okada◄
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
DAL
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
ARI
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Dak Prescott◄
0.15 EPA/att
Jacoby Brissett
-0.00 EPA/att
Javonte Williams
-0.03 EPA/tch
Jeremiyah Love◄
no 2025 data
CeeDee Lamb
0.20 EPA/tgt
Marvin Harrison Jr.◄
0.31 EPA/tgt
Jake Ferguson
0.16 EPA/tgt
Trey McBride◄
0.39 EPA/tgt
Elite◄
4.7% sack rate
Bad
8.3% sack rate
Otito Ogbonnia
0.3 disrupt/gm
Roy Lopez◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Quinnen Williams
no 2025 data
Josh Sweat
no 2025 data
Dee Winters◄
0.8 impact/gm
Jack Gibbens
0.7 impact/gm
Cobie Durant
0.5 cover/gm
Denzel Burke◄
0.7 cover/gm
Malik Hooker
0.2 cover/gm
Budda Baker◄
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
PHI
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · four-man rush
TB
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Jalen Hurts◄
0.05 EPA/att
Baker Mayfield
0.00 EPA/att
Saquon Barkley◄
-0.08 EPA/tch
Bucky Irving
-0.10 EPA/tch
DeVonta Smith◄
0.38 EPA/tgt
Emeka Egbuka
0.05 EPA/tgt
Dallas Goedert◄
0.36 EPA/tgt
Cade Otton
0.03 EPA/tgt
Average
6.6% sack rate
Average◄
6.4% sack rate
Average
no data
Vita Vea◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Jalen Carter
no 2025 data
Calijah Kancey
no 2025 data
Zack Baun◄
1.0 impact/gm
Yaya Diaby
0.9 impact/gm
Quinyon Mitchell◄
0.7 cover/gm
Jacob Parrish
0.4 cover/gm
Andrew Mukuba
0.4 cover/gm
Antoine Winfield Jr.◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
PIT
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
LV
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Aaron Rodgers◄
0.04 EPA/att
Kirk Cousins
-0.00 EPA/att
Jaylen Warren◄
0.03 EPA/tch
Ashton Jeanty
-0.20 EPA/tch
DK Metcalf◄
0.26 EPA/tgt
Tre Tucker
0.18 EPA/tgt
Darnell Washington◄
0.24 EPA/tgt
Brock Bowers
0.22 EPA/tgt
Good◄
5.3% sack rate
Bad
11.1% sack rate
Keeanu Benton◄
0.6 disrupt/gm
Adam Butler
0.3 disrupt/gm
Cameron Heyward
0.4 press/gm
Jonah Laulu◄
no 2025 data
Payton Wilson
0.7 impact/gm
Quay Walker◄
0.9 impact/gm
Jalen Ramsey◄
0.4 cover/gm
Eric Stokes
0.2 cover/gm
Jaquan Brisker◄
0.6 cover/gm
Jeremy Chinn
0.3 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
LAC
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
MIN
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Justin Herbert◄
0.02 EPA/att
Kyler Murray
0.02 EPA/att
Omarion Hampton◄
-0.01 EPA/tch
Aaron Jones Sr.
-0.04 EPA/tch
Ladd McConkey◄
0.05 EPA/tgt
Justin Jefferson
-0.08 EPA/tgt
Charlie Kolar
0.15 EPA/tgt
T.J. Hockenson◄
0.17 EPA/tgt
Bad◄
9.5% sack rate
Bad
11.0% sack rate
Dalvin Tomlinson
no 2025 data
Caleb Banks
no 2025 data
Teair Tart
no 2025 data
Levi Drake Rodriguez
no 2025 data
Daiyan Henley
0.8 impact/gm
Eric Wilson◄
1.1 impact/gm
Cam Hart◄
0.5 cover/gm
Byron Murphy Jr.
0.4 cover/gm
Derwin James Jr.◄
0.7 cover/gm
Joshua Metellus
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
BUF
OFF Run-heavy · under-center
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
WAS
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Josh Allen◄
0.11 EPA/att
Jayden Daniels
-0.01 EPA/att
James Cook III◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Jacory Croskey-Merritt
-0.02 EPA/tch
DJ Moore
0.12 EPA/tgt
Terry McLaurin◄
0.36 EPA/tgt
Dalton Kincaid◄
0.58 EPA/tgt
Chig Okonkwo
0.13 EPA/tgt
Good◄
7.5% sack rate
Good
7.3% sack rate
Deone Walker
0.4 disrupt/gm
Daron Payne◄
0.6 disrupt/gm
T.J. Sanders
no 2025 data
Tim Settle
no 2025 data
Greg Rousseau
0.7 impact/gm
Odafe Oweh◄
0.7 impact/gm
Dee Alford◄
0.8 cover/gm
Mike Sainristil
0.7 cover/gm
Cole Bishop◄
0.7 cover/gm
Nick Cross
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
NO
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
GB
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Tyler Shough
0.00 EPA/att
Jordan Love◄
0.18 EPA/att
Travis Etienne Jr.
-0.03 EPA/tch
MarShawn Lloyd◄
no 2025 data
Chris Olave
0.19 EPA/tgt
Christian Watson◄
0.38 EPA/tgt
Juwan Johnson
0.29 EPA/tgt
Tucker Kraft◄
0.62 EPA/tgt
Bad
7.7% sack rate
Average◄
5.6% sack rate
Davon Godchaux
0.1 disrupt/gm
Javon Hargrave◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Colby Wooden
0.2 press/gm
Karl Brooks◄
no 2025 data
Kaden Elliss◄
1.0 impact/gm
Edgerrin Cooper
0.6 impact/gm
Kool-Aid McKinstry◄
0.9 cover/gm
Keisean Nixon
0.7 cover/gm
Justin Reid
0.5 cover/gm
Evan Williams◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
NE
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
NYJ
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Drake Maye◄
0.25 EPA/att
Geno Smith
-0.12 EPA/att
Rhamondre Stevenson◄
-0.02 EPA/tch
Breece Hall
-0.04 EPA/tch
Romeo Doubs◄
0.30 EPA/tgt
Garrett Wilson
-0.02 EPA/tgt
Hunter Henry◄
0.36 EPA/tgt
Mason Taylor
0.12 EPA/tgt
Average◄
8.7% sack rate
Bad
10.8% sack rate
Cory Durden
0.2 disrupt/gm
Harrison Phillips◄
0.2 disrupt/gm
Christian Barmore
no 2025 data
Will McDonald IV◄
0.9 press/gm
Dre'Mont Jones
0.6 impact/gm
Jamien Sherwood◄
1.0 impact/gm
Carlton Davis III
0.4 cover/gm
Nahshon Wright◄
0.8 cover/gm
Craig Woodson
0.3 cover/gm
Dane Belton◄
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
Winner accuracy by grade, 1070 games. A high grade means a clearer mismatch — but the books know it too, so higher accuracy here does not mean a betting edge.
All validated trends · out-of-sample (2020–2026)
NFL · Members
The full board, confidence ratings, and daily plays — plus the complete track record. New plays every morning. The track record and featured picks above stay free.
NFL Pass
$9.99/mo
Just NFL
All-AccessBest value
$29.99/mo
All 5 sports
Secure checkout via Stripe. Cancel anytime. 21+. Bet responsibly.
