We simulate every NFL game on opponent-adjusted net EPA — offense and defense on both sides set the projected margin, scoring rates set the total — then post only the handful we have the most conviction in. Every posted game gets a grade and a projected score, and every one is graded against the real result.
Graded games
75.9%
the games we post · B+ or better
Full slate
62.5%
every game · n=1070
Market
67.4%
closing line · it’s better
Margin error
10.5
points, full slate
Accuracy is measured against the actual final score — did we pick the winner, and how many points off was the margin — not against the betting line. Across 2019–2025 the simulator calls 62.5% of all games straight up. The market’s closing line calls 67.4% — the NFL is the most efficient market in sports, so the full slate is worse than the market and we say so. It is a prediction tool, not a betting edge: it does not beat the spread. Analysis and entertainment, 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.
Board went 2-0 · full slate 9-7 straight up
Our 2 highest-conviction calls out of 16 games this week. We post at most 6, and nothing below a B+ — a thin week posts fewer rather than padding the board.
MIN
PHI
20
29
Offense
PHI
Defense
PHI
Called it ✓
MIN
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
PHI
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
Every game we simulated this week, highest conviction first. The board above is only the ones that cleared B+— here’s the whole week so nothing’s hidden.
MIN
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
PHI
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · four-man rush
Kyler Murray
0.02 EPA/att
Jalen Hurts◄
The grade is our conviction in our own call — how big the projected margin is. Here is how each grade actually performed across 2019–2025:
Net EPA — opponent-adjusted expected points added on offense and defense, both sides of the ball — sets the projected margin. Scoring rates set the total. Ratings are computed as of that week’s kickoff, using only games already played, so nothing is graded with hindsight. Early in the season a team carries its prior-year rating until it has enough games to stand on its own.
It does not beat the spread. The NFL market is the sharpest in sports. We publish this because the projection and the matchup are interesting and we grade ourselves honestly against the real score — not because it prints money.
Also on our board
Separate from the simulator: situational trends mined from 1999–2026 seasons and validated out-of-sample. Only the ones that actually hold up.
The Sizzlin NFL Simulator is analysis and entertainment — not betting advice or a guaranteed outcome. 21+. 1-800-GAMBLER.
DEF Balanced coverage · four-man rush
Kyler Murray
0.02 EPA/att
Jalen Hurts◄
0.05 EPA/att
Aaron Jones Sr.◄
-0.04 EPA/tch
Saquon Barkley
-0.08 EPA/tch
Justin Jefferson
-0.08 EPA/tgt
DeVonta Smith◄
0.38 EPA/tgt
T.J. Hockenson
0.17 EPA/tgt
Dallas Goedert◄
0.36 EPA/tgt
Bad
11.0% sack rate
Average◄
6.6% sack rate
Caleb Banks
no 2025 data
Average
no data
Levi Drake Rodriguez
no 2025 data
Jalen Carter
no 2025 data
Eric Wilson◄
1.1 impact/gm
Zack Baun
1.0 impact/gm
Byron Murphy Jr.
0.4 cover/gm
Quinyon Mitchell◄
0.7 cover/gm
Joshua Metellus◄
0.6 cover/gm
Andrew Mukuba
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
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0.05 EPA/att
Aaron Jones Sr.◄
-0.04 EPA/tch
Saquon Barkley
-0.08 EPA/tch
Justin Jefferson
-0.08 EPA/tgt
DeVonta Smith◄
0.38 EPA/tgt
T.J. Hockenson
0.17 EPA/tgt
Dallas Goedert◄
0.36 EPA/tgt
Bad
11.0% sack rate
Average◄
6.6% sack rate
Caleb Banks
no 2025 data
Average
no data
Levi Drake Rodriguez
no 2025 data
Jalen Carter
no 2025 data
Eric Wilson◄
1.1 impact/gm
Zack Baun
1.0 impact/gm
Byron Murphy Jr.
0.4 cover/gm
Quinyon Mitchell◄
0.7 cover/gm
Joshua Metellus◄
0.6 cover/gm
Andrew Mukuba
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
LV
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
BUF
OFF Run-heavy · under-center
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Kirk Cousins
-0.00 EPA/att
Josh Allen◄
0.11 EPA/att
Ashton Jeanty
-0.20 EPA/tch
James Cook III◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Tre Tucker◄
0.18 EPA/tgt
DJ Moore
0.12 EPA/tgt
Brock Bowers
0.22 EPA/tgt
Dalton Kincaid◄
0.58 EPA/tgt
Bad
11.1% sack rate
Good◄
7.5% sack rate
Adam Butler
0.3 disrupt/gm
Deone Walker◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Jonah Laulu
no 2025 data
T.J. Sanders
no 2025 data
Quay Walker◄
0.9 impact/gm
Greg Rousseau
0.7 impact/gm
Eric Stokes
0.2 cover/gm
Dee Alford◄
0.8 cover/gm
Jeremy Chinn
0.3 cover/gm
Cole Bishop◄
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
NYJ
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
DAL
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Geno Smith
-0.12 EPA/att
Dak Prescott◄
0.15 EPA/att
Breece Hall
-0.04 EPA/tch
Javonte Williams◄
-0.03 EPA/tch
Garrett Wilson
-0.02 EPA/tgt
CeeDee Lamb◄
0.20 EPA/tgt
Mason Taylor
0.12 EPA/tgt
Jake Ferguson◄
0.16 EPA/tgt
Bad
10.8% sack rate
Elite◄
4.7% sack rate
Harrison Phillips
0.2 disrupt/gm
Otito Ogbonnia◄
0.3 disrupt/gm
Will McDonald IV◄
0.9 press/gm
Quinnen Williams
no 2025 data
Jamien Sherwood◄
1.0 impact/gm
Dee Winters
0.8 impact/gm
Nahshon Wright◄
0.8 cover/gm
Cobie Durant
0.5 cover/gm
Dane Belton◄
0.5 cover/gm
Malik Hooker
0.2 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
CHI
OFF Balanced · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
TB
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Caleb Williams◄
0.06 EPA/att
Baker Mayfield
0.00 EPA/att
D'Andre Swift◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Bucky Irving
-0.10 EPA/tch
Rome Odunze◄
0.18 EPA/tgt
Emeka Egbuka
0.05 EPA/tgt
Colston Loveland◄
0.47 EPA/tgt
Cade Otton
0.03 EPA/tgt
Elite◄
4.0% sack rate
Average
6.4% sack rate
Grady Jarrett
0.3 disrupt/gm
Vita Vea◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Montez Sweat◄
0.9 press/gm
Calijah Kancey
no 2025 data
Devin Bush◄
0.9 impact/gm
Yaya Diaby
0.9 impact/gm
Cam Lewis
0.2 cover/gm
Jacob Parrish◄
0.4 cover/gm
Xavier Woods
0.4 cover/gm
Antoine Winfield Jr.◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
BAL
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
CIN
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Lamar Jackson
0.04 EPA/att
Joe Burrow◄
0.08 EPA/att
Derrick Henry◄
0.02 EPA/tch
Chase Brown
-0.04 EPA/tch
Zay Flowers◄
0.32 EPA/tgt
Ja'Marr Chase
0.19 EPA/tgt
Mark Andrews
0.02 EPA/tgt
Mike Gesicki◄
0.07 EPA/tgt
Good◄
9.6% sack rate
Good
5.3% sack rate
Travis Jones◄
0.7 disrupt/gm
Dexter Lawrence II
0.3 disrupt/gm
Calais Campbell◄
0.7 press/gm
Boye Mafe
0.2 press/gm
Roquan Smith
0.7 impact/gm
Demetrius Knight Jr.◄
0.8 impact/gm
Nate Wiggins◄
0.7 cover/gm
Dax Hill
0.5 cover/gm
Malaki Starks
0.5 cover/gm
Jordan Battle◄
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
SF
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
LA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Brock Purdy
0.13 EPA/att
Matthew Stafford◄
0.19 EPA/att
Christian McCaffrey
0.04 EPA/tch
Kyren Williams◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Mike Evans
0.06 EPA/tgt
Puka Nacua◄
0.59 EPA/tgt
George Kittle◄
0.53 EPA/tgt
Colby Parkinson
0.17 EPA/tgt
Average
4.5% sack rate
Elite◄
3.7% sack rate
Osa Odighizuwa◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Poona Ford
0.3 disrupt/gm
Keion White
0.2 press/gm
Kobie Turner◄
0.6 press/gm
Luke Gifford
0.1 impact/gm
Byron Young◄
1.1 impact/gm
Deommodore Lenoir
0.3 cover/gm
Jaylen Watson◄
0.4 cover/gm
Ji'Ayir Brown
0.5 cover/gm
Kamren Kinchens◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
MIA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
NE
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Malik Willis
0.13 EPA/att
Drake Maye◄
0.25 EPA/att
De'Von Achane◄
0.01 EPA/tch
Rhamondre Stevenson
-0.02 EPA/tch
Malik Washington
-0.10 EPA/tgt
Romeo Doubs◄
0.30 EPA/tgt
Greg Dulcich
0.34 EPA/tgt
Hunter Henry◄
0.36 EPA/tgt
Good◄
7.4% sack rate
Average
8.7% sack rate
Jordan Phillips
0.2 disrupt/gm
Cory Durden◄
0.2 disrupt/gm
Chop Robinson
no 2025 data
Christian Barmore
no 2025 data
Jordyn Brooks◄
1.2 impact/gm
Dre'Mont Jones
0.6 impact/gm
Jason Marshall Jr.
0.3 cover/gm
Carlton Davis III◄
0.4 cover/gm
Dante Trader Jr.
0.2 cover/gm
Craig Woodson◄
0.3 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
CLE
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
PIT
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Deshaun Watson◄
no 2025 data
Aaron Rodgers
0.04 EPA/att
Quinshon Judkins
-0.10 EPA/tch
Jaylen Warren◄
0.03 EPA/tch
Jerry Jeudy
-0.24 EPA/tgt
DK Metcalf◄
0.26 EPA/tgt
Harold Fannin Jr.
0.01 EPA/tgt
Darnell Washington◄
0.24 EPA/tgt
Bad
8.4% sack rate
Good◄
5.3% sack rate
Mason Graham
0.4 disrupt/gm
Keeanu Benton◄
0.6 disrupt/gm
Jared Verse◄
0.9 press/gm
Cameron Heyward
0.4 press/gm
Carson Schwesinger◄
0.9 impact/gm
Payton Wilson
0.7 impact/gm
Tyson Campbell◄
0.7 cover/gm
Jalen Ramsey
0.4 cover/gm
Grant Delpit
0.4 cover/gm
Jaquan Brisker◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
SEA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
DET
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
Sam Darnold
0.11 EPA/att
Jared Goff◄
0.14 EPA/att
Brady Russell
-0.01 EPA/tch
Jahmyr Gibbs◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Jaxon Smith-Njigba◄
0.47 EPA/tgt
Amon-Ra St. Brown
0.28 EPA/tgt
AJ Barner
0.32 EPA/tgt
Sam LaPorta◄
0.54 EPA/tgt
Average
5.3% sack rate
Good◄
6.3% sack rate
Byron Murphy II◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Tyleik Williams
0.2 disrupt/gm
Leonard Williams
0.8 press/gm
Aidan Hutchinson◄
1.3 press/gm
DeMarcus Lawrence◄
0.8 impact/gm
Derrick Barnes
0.7 impact/gm
Josh Jobe◄
0.6 cover/gm
D.J. Reed
0.5 cover/gm
Ty Okada◄
0.5 cover/gm
Chuck Clark
0.3 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
GB
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
ATL
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Jordan Love◄
0.18 EPA/att
Michael Penix Jr.
0.01 EPA/att
MarShawn Lloyd
no 2025 data
Bijan Robinson◄
0.03 EPA/tch
Christian Watson◄
0.38 EPA/tgt
Drake London
0.18 EPA/tgt
Tucker Kraft◄
0.62 EPA/tgt
Kyle Pitts Sr.
0.18 EPA/tgt
Average
5.6% sack rate
Elite◄
4.6% sack rate
Javon Hargrave
0.4 disrupt/gm
Gervon Dexter Sr.◄
0.7 disrupt/gm
Karl Brooks◄
no 2025 data
Brandon Dorlus
0.8 press/gm
Edgerrin Cooper
0.6 impact/gm
Divine Deablo◄
0.7 impact/gm
Keisean Nixon◄
0.7 cover/gm
A.J. Terrell Jr.
0.5 cover/gm
Evan Williams
0.6 cover/gm
Jessie Bates III◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
IND
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
HOU
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Daniel Jones◄
0.11 EPA/att
C.J. Stroud
0.08 EPA/att
Jonathan Taylor◄
0.07 EPA/tch
David Montgomery
0.02 EPA/tch
Alec Pierce◄
0.49 EPA/tgt
Nico Collins
0.26 EPA/tgt
Tyler Warren
0.12 EPA/tgt
Dalton Schultz◄
0.29 EPA/tgt
Good◄
5.0% sack rate
Average
5.1% sack rate
Grover Stewart
0.3 disrupt/gm
Tommy Togiai◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Laiatu Latu
0.9 press/gm
Will Anderson Jr.◄
1.2 press/gm
Akeem Davis-Gaither
0.5 impact/gm
Henry To'oTo'o◄
0.8 impact/gm
Sauce Gardner
0.5 cover/gm
Kamari Lassiter◄
1.0 cover/gm
Cam Bynum◄
0.7 cover/gm
Reed Blankenship
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
WAS
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
DEN
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
Jayden Daniels
-0.01 EPA/att
Bo Nix◄
0.08 EPA/att
Jacory Croskey-Merritt
-0.02 EPA/tch
J.K. Dobbins◄
-0.00 EPA/tch
Terry McLaurin◄
0.36 EPA/tgt
Jaylen Waddle
0.27 EPA/tgt
Chig Okonkwo◄
0.13 EPA/tgt
Evan Engram
0.04 EPA/tgt
Good
7.3% sack rate
Elite◄
3.6% sack rate
Daron Payne◄
0.6 disrupt/gm
D.J. Jones
0.4 disrupt/gm
Tim Settle
no 2025 data
Zach Allen◄
1.1 press/gm
Odafe Oweh
0.7 impact/gm
Nik Bonitto◄
1.2 impact/gm
Mike Sainristil
0.7 cover/gm
Riley Moss◄
0.8 cover/gm
Nick Cross
0.5 cover/gm
Talanoa Hufanga◄
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
LAC
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
TEN
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Justin Herbert◄
0.02 EPA/att
Cam Ward
-0.15 EPA/att
Omarion Hampton◄
-0.01 EPA/tch
Tony Pollard
-0.10 EPA/tch
Ladd McConkey
0.05 EPA/tgt
Carnell Tate◄
no 2025 data
Charlie Kolar◄
0.15 EPA/tgt
Gunnar Helm
0.05 EPA/tgt
Bad◄
9.5% sack rate
Bad
8.9% sack rate
Dalvin Tomlinson
no 2025 data
Jeffery Simmons◄
1.5 disrupt/gm
Teair Tart◄
no 2025 data
Jermaine Johnson II
0.3 press/gm
Daiyan Henley◄
0.8 impact/gm
Cody Barton
0.7 impact/gm
Cam Hart
0.5 cover/gm
Alontae Taylor◄
0.6 cover/gm
Derwin James Jr.◄
0.7 cover/gm
Amani Hooker
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
NO
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
CAR
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Tyler Shough◄
0.00 EPA/att
Bryce Young
-0.03 EPA/att
Travis Etienne Jr.◄
-0.03 EPA/tch
Chuba Hubbard
-0.05 EPA/tch
Chris Olave◄
0.19 EPA/tgt
Tetairoa McMillan
0.17 EPA/tgt
Juwan Johnson◄
0.29 EPA/tgt
Tommy Tremble
0.15 EPA/tgt
Bad
7.7% sack rate
Average◄
6.4% sack rate
Davon Godchaux
0.1 disrupt/gm
Lee Hunter◄
no 2025 data
Colby Wooden
0.2 press/gm
Derrick Brown◄
no 2025 data
Kaden Elliss◄
1.0 impact/gm
Bobby Okereke
0.7 impact/gm
Kool-Aid McKinstry
0.9 cover/gm
Mike Jackson◄
1.0 cover/gm
Justin Reid◄
0.5 cover/gm
Nick Scott
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
KC
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
JAX
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Patrick Mahomes◄
0.10 EPA/att
Trevor Lawrence
0.05 EPA/att
Kenneth Walker III◄
-0.02 EPA/tch
Bhayshul Tuten
-0.03 EPA/tch
Rashee Rice◄
0.15 EPA/tgt
Brian Thomas Jr.
0.14 EPA/tgt
Travis Kelce
0.32 EPA/tgt
Brenton Strange◄
0.40 EPA/tgt
Average◄
7.4% sack rate
Bad
6.8% sack rate
Khyiris Tonga
0.1 disrupt/gm
DaVon Hamilton◄
0.2 disrupt/gm
George Karlaftis
0.8 press/gm
Josh Hines-Allen◄
1.0 press/gm
Drue Tranquill
0.7 impact/gm
Foyesade Oluokun◄
0.9 impact/gm
L'Jarius Sneed
0.2 cover/gm
Montaric Brown◄
0.7 cover/gm
Alohi Gilman
0.5 cover/gm
Antonio Johnson◄
0.8 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
NYG
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
ARI
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Jaxson Dart◄
0.01 EPA/att
Jacoby Brissett
-0.00 EPA/att
Cam Skattebo
-0.05 EPA/tch
Jeremiyah Love◄
no 2025 data
Malik Nabers
0.04 EPA/tgt
Marvin Harrison Jr.◄
0.31 EPA/tgt
Isaiah Likely
0.10 EPA/tgt
Trey McBride◄
0.39 EPA/tgt
Bad
8.4% sack rate
Bad◄
8.3% sack rate
DJ Reader
0.1 disrupt/gm
Roy Lopez◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Shelby Harris
0.2 press/gm
Josh Sweat◄
no 2025 data
Brian Burns◄
1.8 impact/gm
Jack Gibbens
0.7 impact/gm
Dru Phillips
0.6 cover/gm
Denzel Burke◄
0.7 cover/gm
Tyler Nubin
0.3 cover/gm
Budda Baker◄
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
Winner accuracy by grade, 1070 games. A high grade means a clearer mismatch — but the books know it too, so higher accuracy here does not mean a betting edge.
All validated trends · out-of-sample (2020–2026)
NFL · Members
The full board, confidence ratings, and daily plays — plus the complete track record. New plays every morning. The track record and featured picks above stay free.
NFL Pass
$9.99/mo
Just NFL
All-AccessBest value
$29.99/mo
All 5 sports
Secure checkout via Stripe. Cancel anytime. 21+. Bet responsibly.
