We simulate every NFL game on opponent-adjusted net EPA — offense and defense on both sides set the projected margin, scoring rates set the total — then post only the handful we have the most conviction in. Every posted game gets a grade and a projected score, and every one is graded against the real result.
Graded games
75.9%
the games we post · B+ or better
Full slate
62.5%
every game · n=1070
Market
67.4%
closing line · it’s better
Margin error
10.5
points, full slate
Accuracy is measured against the actual final score — did we pick the winner, and how many points off was the margin — not against the betting line. Across 2019–2025 the simulator calls 62.5% of all games straight up. The market’s closing line calls 67.4% — the NFL is the most efficient market in sports, so the full slate is worse than the market and we say so. It is a prediction tool, not a betting edge: it does not beat the spread. Analysis and entertainment, 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.
Board went 1-1 · full slate 12-4 straight up
Our 2 highest-conviction calls out of 16 games this week. We post at most 6, and nothing below a B+ — a thin week posts fewer rather than padding the board.
NE
BUF
16
25
Offense
BUF
Defense
NE
Called it ✓
NE
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
BUF
OFF Run-heavy · under-center
Every game we simulated this week, highest conviction first. The board above is only the ones that cleared B+— here’s the whole week so nothing’s hidden.
NE
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
BUF
OFF Run-heavy · under-center
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Drake Maye◄
0.25 EPA/att
The grade is our conviction in our own call — how big the projected margin is. Here is how each grade actually performed across 2019–2025:
Net EPA — opponent-adjusted expected points added on offense and defense, both sides of the ball — sets the projected margin. Scoring rates set the total. Ratings are computed as of that week’s kickoff, using only games already played, so nothing is graded with hindsight. Early in the season a team carries its prior-year rating until it has enough games to stand on its own.
It does not beat the spread. The NFL market is the sharpest in sports. We publish this because the projection and the matchup are interesting and we grade ourselves honestly against the real score — not because it prints money.
Also on our board
Separate from the simulator: situational trends mined from 1999–2026 seasons and validated out-of-sample. Only the ones that actually hold up.
The Sizzlin NFL Simulator is analysis and entertainment — not betting advice or a guaranteed outcome. 21+. 1-800-GAMBLER.
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Drake Maye◄
0.25 EPA/att
Josh Allen
0.11 EPA/att
Rhamondre Stevenson
-0.02 EPA/tch
James Cook III◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Romeo Doubs◄
0.30 EPA/tgt
DJ Moore
0.12 EPA/tgt
Hunter Henry
0.36 EPA/tgt
Dalton Kincaid◄
0.58 EPA/tgt
Average
8.7% sack rate
Good◄
7.5% sack rate
Cory Durden
0.2 disrupt/gm
Deone Walker◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Christian Barmore
no 2025 data
T.J. Sanders
no 2025 data
Dre'Mont Jones
0.6 impact/gm
Greg Rousseau◄
0.7 impact/gm
Carlton Davis III
0.4 cover/gm
Dee Alford◄
0.8 cover/gm
Craig Woodson
0.3 cover/gm
Cole Bishop◄
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
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Josh Allen
0.11 EPA/att
Rhamondre Stevenson
-0.02 EPA/tch
James Cook III◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Romeo Doubs◄
0.30 EPA/tgt
DJ Moore
0.12 EPA/tgt
Hunter Henry
0.36 EPA/tgt
Dalton Kincaid◄
0.58 EPA/tgt
Average
8.7% sack rate
Good◄
7.5% sack rate
Cory Durden
0.2 disrupt/gm
Deone Walker◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Christian Barmore
no 2025 data
T.J. Sanders
no 2025 data
Dre'Mont Jones
0.6 impact/gm
Greg Rousseau◄
0.7 impact/gm
Carlton Davis III
0.4 cover/gm
Dee Alford◄
0.8 cover/gm
Craig Woodson
0.3 cover/gm
Cole Bishop◄
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
ARI
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
PHI
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · four-man rush
Jacoby Brissett
-0.00 EPA/att
Jalen Hurts◄
0.05 EPA/att
Jeremiyah Love◄
no 2025 data
Saquon Barkley
-0.08 EPA/tch
Marvin Harrison Jr.
0.31 EPA/tgt
DeVonta Smith◄
0.38 EPA/tgt
Trey McBride◄
0.39 EPA/tgt
Dallas Goedert
0.36 EPA/tgt
Bad
8.3% sack rate
Average◄
6.6% sack rate
Roy Lopez◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Average
no data
Josh Sweat
no 2025 data
Jalen Carter
no 2025 data
Jack Gibbens
0.7 impact/gm
Zack Baun◄
1.0 impact/gm
Denzel Burke◄
0.7 cover/gm
Quinyon Mitchell
0.7 cover/gm
Budda Baker◄
0.5 cover/gm
Andrew Mukuba
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
NYJ
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
CLE
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Geno Smith
-0.12 EPA/att
Deshaun Watson◄
no 2025 data
Breece Hall◄
-0.04 EPA/tch
Quinshon Judkins
-0.10 EPA/tch
Garrett Wilson◄
-0.02 EPA/tgt
Jerry Jeudy
-0.24 EPA/tgt
Mason Taylor◄
0.12 EPA/tgt
Harold Fannin Jr.
0.01 EPA/tgt
Bad◄
10.8% sack rate
Bad
8.4% sack rate
Harrison Phillips
0.2 disrupt/gm
Mason Graham◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Will McDonald IV◄
0.9 press/gm
Jared Verse
0.9 press/gm
Jamien Sherwood◄
1.0 impact/gm
Carson Schwesinger
0.9 impact/gm
Nahshon Wright◄
0.8 cover/gm
Tyson Campbell
0.7 cover/gm
Dane Belton◄
0.5 cover/gm
Grant Delpit
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
SF
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
WAS
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Brock Purdy◄
0.13 EPA/att
Jayden Daniels
-0.01 EPA/att
Christian McCaffrey◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Jacory Croskey-Merritt
-0.02 EPA/tch
Mike Evans
0.06 EPA/tgt
Terry McLaurin◄
0.36 EPA/tgt
George Kittle◄
0.53 EPA/tgt
Chig Okonkwo
0.13 EPA/tgt
Average
4.5% sack rate
Good◄
7.3% sack rate
Osa Odighizuwa◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Daron Payne
0.6 disrupt/gm
Keion White
0.2 press/gm
Tim Settle◄
no 2025 data
Luke Gifford
0.1 impact/gm
Odafe Oweh◄
0.7 impact/gm
Deommodore Lenoir
0.3 cover/gm
Mike Sainristil◄
0.7 cover/gm
Ji'Ayir Brown◄
0.5 cover/gm
Nick Cross
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
CIN
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
KC
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Joe Burrow
0.08 EPA/att
Patrick Mahomes◄
0.10 EPA/att
Chase Brown
-0.04 EPA/tch
Kenneth Walker III◄
-0.02 EPA/tch
Ja'Marr Chase◄
0.19 EPA/tgt
Rashee Rice
0.15 EPA/tgt
Mike Gesicki
0.07 EPA/tgt
Travis Kelce◄
0.32 EPA/tgt
Good◄
5.3% sack rate
Average
7.4% sack rate
Dexter Lawrence II◄
0.3 disrupt/gm
Khyiris Tonga
0.1 disrupt/gm
Boye Mafe
0.2 press/gm
George Karlaftis◄
0.8 press/gm
Demetrius Knight Jr.◄
0.8 impact/gm
Drue Tranquill
0.7 impact/gm
Dax Hill◄
0.5 cover/gm
L'Jarius Sneed
0.2 cover/gm
Jordan Battle◄
0.7 cover/gm
Alohi Gilman
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
CAR
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
JAX
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Bryce Young
-0.03 EPA/att
Trevor Lawrence◄
0.05 EPA/att
Chuba Hubbard
-0.05 EPA/tch
Bhayshul Tuten◄
-0.03 EPA/tch
Tetairoa McMillan◄
0.17 EPA/tgt
Brian Thomas Jr.
0.14 EPA/tgt
Tommy Tremble
0.15 EPA/tgt
Brenton Strange◄
0.40 EPA/tgt
Average◄
6.4% sack rate
Bad
6.8% sack rate
Lee Hunter◄
no 2025 data
DaVon Hamilton
0.2 disrupt/gm
Derrick Brown
no 2025 data
Josh Hines-Allen◄
1.0 press/gm
Bobby Okereke
0.7 impact/gm
Foyesade Oluokun◄
0.9 impact/gm
Mike Jackson◄
1.0 cover/gm
Montaric Brown
0.7 cover/gm
Nick Scott
0.4 cover/gm
Antonio Johnson◄
0.8 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
DET
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
DAL
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Jared Goff
0.14 EPA/att
Dak Prescott◄
0.15 EPA/att
Jahmyr Gibbs◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Javonte Williams
-0.03 EPA/tch
Amon-Ra St. Brown◄
0.28 EPA/tgt
CeeDee Lamb
0.20 EPA/tgt
Sam LaPorta◄
0.54 EPA/tgt
Jake Ferguson
0.16 EPA/tgt
Good
6.3% sack rate
Elite◄
4.7% sack rate
Tyleik Williams
0.2 disrupt/gm
Otito Ogbonnia◄
0.3 disrupt/gm
Aidan Hutchinson◄
1.3 press/gm
Quinnen Williams
no 2025 data
Derrick Barnes
0.7 impact/gm
Dee Winters◄
0.8 impact/gm
D.J. Reed◄
0.5 cover/gm
Cobie Durant
0.5 cover/gm
Chuck Clark◄
0.3 cover/gm
Malik Hooker
0.2 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
TEN
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
HOU
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Cam Ward
-0.15 EPA/att
C.J. Stroud◄
0.08 EPA/att
Tony Pollard
-0.10 EPA/tch
David Montgomery◄
0.02 EPA/tch
Carnell Tate
no 2025 data
Nico Collins◄
0.26 EPA/tgt
Gunnar Helm
0.05 EPA/tgt
Dalton Schultz◄
0.29 EPA/tgt
Bad
8.9% sack rate
Average◄
5.1% sack rate
Jeffery Simmons◄
1.5 disrupt/gm
Tommy Togiai
0.4 disrupt/gm
Jermaine Johnson II
0.3 press/gm
Will Anderson Jr.◄
1.2 press/gm
Cody Barton
0.7 impact/gm
Henry To'oTo'o◄
0.8 impact/gm
Alontae Taylor
0.6 cover/gm
Kamari Lassiter◄
1.0 cover/gm
Amani Hooker◄
0.5 cover/gm
Reed Blankenship
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
GB
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
MIN
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Jordan Love◄
0.18 EPA/att
Kyler Murray
0.02 EPA/att
MarShawn Lloyd◄
no 2025 data
Aaron Jones Sr.
-0.04 EPA/tch
Christian Watson◄
0.38 EPA/tgt
Justin Jefferson
-0.08 EPA/tgt
Tucker Kraft◄
0.62 EPA/tgt
T.J. Hockenson
0.17 EPA/tgt
Average◄
5.6% sack rate
Bad
11.0% sack rate
Javon Hargrave◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Caleb Banks
no 2025 data
Karl Brooks
no 2025 data
Levi Drake Rodriguez
no 2025 data
Edgerrin Cooper
0.6 impact/gm
Eric Wilson◄
1.1 impact/gm
Keisean Nixon◄
0.7 cover/gm
Byron Murphy Jr.
0.4 cover/gm
Evan Williams◄
0.6 cover/gm
Joshua Metellus
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
PIT
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
SEA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Aaron Rodgers
0.04 EPA/att
Sam Darnold◄
0.11 EPA/att
Jaylen Warren◄
0.03 EPA/tch
Brady Russell
-0.01 EPA/tch
DK Metcalf
0.26 EPA/tgt
Jaxon Smith-Njigba◄
0.47 EPA/tgt
Darnell Washington
0.24 EPA/tgt
AJ Barner◄
0.32 EPA/tgt
Good◄
5.3% sack rate
Average
5.3% sack rate
Keeanu Benton
0.6 disrupt/gm
Byron Murphy II◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Cameron Heyward
0.4 press/gm
Leonard Williams◄
0.8 press/gm
Payton Wilson
0.7 impact/gm
DeMarcus Lawrence◄
0.8 impact/gm
Jalen Ramsey
0.4 cover/gm
Josh Jobe◄
0.6 cover/gm
Jaquan Brisker◄
0.6 cover/gm
Ty Okada
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
MIA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
BAL
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Malik Willis◄
0.13 EPA/att
Lamar Jackson
0.04 EPA/att
De'Von Achane
0.01 EPA/tch
Derrick Henry◄
0.02 EPA/tch
Malik Washington
-0.10 EPA/tgt
Zay Flowers◄
0.32 EPA/tgt
Greg Dulcich◄
0.34 EPA/tgt
Mark Andrews
0.02 EPA/tgt
Good
7.4% sack rate
Good◄
9.6% sack rate
Jordan Phillips
0.2 disrupt/gm
Travis Jones◄
0.7 disrupt/gm
Chop Robinson◄
no 2025 data
Calais Campbell
0.7 press/gm
Jordyn Brooks◄
1.2 impact/gm
Roquan Smith
0.7 impact/gm
Jason Marshall Jr.
0.3 cover/gm
Nate Wiggins◄
0.7 cover/gm
Dante Trader Jr.
0.2 cover/gm
Malaki Starks◄
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
LA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
NYG
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Matthew Stafford◄
0.19 EPA/att
Jaxson Dart
0.01 EPA/att
Kyren Williams◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Cam Skattebo
-0.05 EPA/tch
Puka Nacua◄
0.59 EPA/tgt
Malik Nabers
0.04 EPA/tgt
Colby Parkinson◄
0.17 EPA/tgt
Isaiah Likely
0.10 EPA/tgt
Elite◄
3.7% sack rate
Bad
8.4% sack rate
Poona Ford◄
0.3 disrupt/gm
DJ Reader
0.1 disrupt/gm
Kobie Turner◄
0.6 press/gm
Shelby Harris
0.2 press/gm
Byron Young
1.1 impact/gm
Brian Burns◄
1.8 impact/gm
Jaylen Watson
0.4 cover/gm
Dru Phillips◄
0.6 cover/gm
Kamren Kinchens◄
0.6 cover/gm
Tyler Nubin
0.3 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
LV
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
IND
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Kirk Cousins
-0.00 EPA/att
Daniel Jones◄
0.11 EPA/att
Ashton Jeanty
-0.20 EPA/tch
Jonathan Taylor◄
0.07 EPA/tch
Tre Tucker
0.18 EPA/tgt
Alec Pierce◄
0.49 EPA/tgt
Brock Bowers◄
0.22 EPA/tgt
Tyler Warren
0.12 EPA/tgt
Bad
11.1% sack rate
Good◄
5.0% sack rate
Adam Butler
0.3 disrupt/gm
Grover Stewart◄
0.3 disrupt/gm
Jonah Laulu
no 2025 data
Laiatu Latu◄
0.9 press/gm
Quay Walker◄
0.9 impact/gm
Akeem Davis-Gaither
0.5 impact/gm
Eric Stokes
0.2 cover/gm
Sauce Gardner◄
0.5 cover/gm
Jeremy Chinn
0.3 cover/gm
Cam Bynum◄
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
LAC
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
DEN
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
Justin Herbert
0.02 EPA/att
Bo Nix◄
0.08 EPA/att
Omarion Hampton
-0.01 EPA/tch
J.K. Dobbins◄
-0.00 EPA/tch
Ladd McConkey
0.05 EPA/tgt
Jaylen Waddle◄
0.27 EPA/tgt
Charlie Kolar◄
0.15 EPA/tgt
Evan Engram
0.04 EPA/tgt
Bad
9.5% sack rate
Elite◄
3.6% sack rate
Dalvin Tomlinson
no 2025 data
D.J. Jones◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Teair Tart
no 2025 data
Zach Allen◄
1.1 press/gm
Daiyan Henley
0.8 impact/gm
Nik Bonitto◄
1.2 impact/gm
Cam Hart
0.5 cover/gm
Riley Moss◄
0.8 cover/gm
Derwin James Jr.◄
0.7 cover/gm
Talanoa Hufanga
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
ATL
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
CHI
OFF Balanced · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
Michael Penix Jr.
0.01 EPA/att
Caleb Williams◄
0.06 EPA/att
Bijan Robinson
0.03 EPA/tch
D'Andre Swift◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Drake London◄
0.18 EPA/tgt
Rome Odunze
0.18 EPA/tgt
Kyle Pitts Sr.
0.18 EPA/tgt
Colston Loveland◄
0.47 EPA/tgt
Elite
4.6% sack rate
Elite◄
4.0% sack rate
Gervon Dexter Sr.◄
0.7 disrupt/gm
Grady Jarrett
0.3 disrupt/gm
Brandon Dorlus
0.8 press/gm
Montez Sweat◄
0.9 press/gm
Divine Deablo
0.7 impact/gm
Devin Bush◄
0.9 impact/gm
A.J. Terrell Jr.◄
0.5 cover/gm
Cam Lewis
0.2 cover/gm
Jessie Bates III◄
0.6 cover/gm
Xavier Woods
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
NO
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
TB
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Tyler Shough◄
0.00 EPA/att
Baker Mayfield
0.00 EPA/att
Travis Etienne Jr.◄
-0.03 EPA/tch
Bucky Irving
-0.10 EPA/tch
Chris Olave◄
0.19 EPA/tgt
Emeka Egbuka
0.05 EPA/tgt
Juwan Johnson◄
0.29 EPA/tgt
Cade Otton
0.03 EPA/tgt
Bad
7.7% sack rate
Average◄
6.4% sack rate
Davon Godchaux
0.1 disrupt/gm
Vita Vea◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Colby Wooden
0.2 press/gm
Calijah Kancey◄
no 2025 data
Kaden Elliss◄
1.0 impact/gm
Yaya Diaby
0.9 impact/gm
Kool-Aid McKinstry◄
0.9 cover/gm
Jacob Parrish
0.4 cover/gm
Justin Reid
0.5 cover/gm
Antoine Winfield Jr.◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
Winner accuracy by grade, 1070 games. A high grade means a clearer mismatch — but the books know it too, so higher accuracy here does not mean a betting edge.
All validated trends · out-of-sample (2020–2026)
NFL · Members
The full board, confidence ratings, and daily plays — plus the complete track record. New plays every morning. The track record and featured picks above stay free.
NFL Pass
$9.99/mo
Just NFL
All-AccessBest value
$29.99/mo
All 5 sports
Secure checkout via Stripe. Cancel anytime. 21+. Bet responsibly.
