We simulate every NFL game on opponent-adjusted net EPA — offense and defense on both sides set the projected margin, scoring rates set the total — then post only the handful we have the most conviction in. Every posted game gets a grade and a projected score, and every one is graded against the real result.
Graded games
75.9%
the games we post · B+ or better
Full slate
62.5%
every game · n=1070
Market
67.4%
closing line · it’s better
Margin error
10.5
points, full slate
Accuracy is measured against the actual final score — did we pick the winner, and how many points off was the margin — not against the betting line. Across 2019–2025 the simulator calls 62.5% of all games straight up. The market’s closing line calls 67.4% — the NFL is the most efficient market in sports, so the full slate is worse than the market and we say so. It is a prediction tool, not a betting edge: it does not beat the spread. Analysis and entertainment, 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.
Board went 1-0 · full slate 10-6 straight up
Our 1 highest-conviction calls out of 16 games this week. We post at most 6, and nothing below a B+ — a thin week posts fewer rather than padding the board.
NYG
PHI
18
26
Offense
PHI
Defense
NYG
Called it ✓
NYG
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
PHI
Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
Every game we simulated this week, highest conviction first. The board above is only the ones that cleared B+— here’s the whole week so nothing’s hidden.
NYG
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
PHI
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · four-man rush
Jaxson Dart
0.01 EPA/att
Jalen Hurts
The grade is our conviction in our own call — how big the projected margin is. Here is how each grade actually performed across 2019–2025:
Net EPA — opponent-adjusted expected points added on offense and defense, both sides of the ball — sets the projected margin. Scoring rates set the total. Ratings are computed as of that week’s kickoff, using only games already played, so nothing is graded with hindsight. Early in the season a team carries its prior-year rating until it has enough games to stand on its own.
It does not beat the spread. The NFL market is the sharpest in sports. We publish this because the projection and the matchup are interesting and we grade ourselves honestly against the real score — not because it prints money.
Also on our board
Separate from the simulator: situational trends mined from 1999–2026 seasons and validated out-of-sample. Only the ones that actually hold up.
The Sizzlin NFL Simulator is analysis and entertainment — not betting advice or a guaranteed outcome. 21+. 1-800-GAMBLER.
DEF Balanced coverage · four-man rush
Jaxson Dart
0.01 EPA/att
Jalen Hurts◄
0.05 EPA/att
Cam Skattebo◄
-0.05 EPA/tch
Saquon Barkley
-0.08 EPA/tch
Malik Nabers
0.04 EPA/tgt
DeVonta Smith◄
0.38 EPA/tgt
Isaiah Likely
0.10 EPA/tgt
Dallas Goedert◄
0.36 EPA/tgt
Bad
8.4% sack rate
Average◄
6.6% sack rate
DJ Reader
0.1 disrupt/gm
Average◄
no data
Shelby Harris
0.2 press/gm
Jalen Carter◄
no 2025 data
Brian Burns◄
1.8 impact/gm
Zack Baun
1.0 impact/gm
Dru Phillips
0.6 cover/gm
Quinyon Mitchell◄
0.7 cover/gm
Tyler Nubin
0.3 cover/gm
Andrew Mukuba◄
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
0.05 EPA/att
Cam Skattebo◄
-0.05 EPA/tch
Saquon Barkley
-0.08 EPA/tch
Malik Nabers
0.04 EPA/tgt
DeVonta Smith◄
0.38 EPA/tgt
Isaiah Likely
0.10 EPA/tgt
Dallas Goedert◄
0.36 EPA/tgt
Bad
8.4% sack rate
Average◄
6.6% sack rate
DJ Reader
0.1 disrupt/gm
Average◄
no data
Shelby Harris
0.2 press/gm
Jalen Carter◄
no 2025 data
Brian Burns◄
1.8 impact/gm
Zack Baun
1.0 impact/gm
Dru Phillips
0.6 cover/gm
Quinyon Mitchell◄
0.7 cover/gm
Tyler Nubin
0.3 cover/gm
Andrew Mukuba◄
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
ARI
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
CHI
OFF Balanced · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
Jacoby Brissett
-0.00 EPA/att
Caleb Williams◄
0.06 EPA/att
Jeremiyah Love
no 2025 data
D'Andre Swift◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Marvin Harrison Jr.◄
0.31 EPA/tgt
Rome Odunze
0.18 EPA/tgt
Trey McBride
0.39 EPA/tgt
Colston Loveland◄
0.47 EPA/tgt
Bad
8.3% sack rate
Elite◄
4.0% sack rate
Roy Lopez◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Grady Jarrett
0.3 disrupt/gm
Josh Sweat
no 2025 data
Montez Sweat◄
0.9 press/gm
Jack Gibbens
0.7 impact/gm
Devin Bush◄
0.9 impact/gm
Denzel Burke◄
0.7 cover/gm
Cam Lewis
0.2 cover/gm
Budda Baker◄
0.5 cover/gm
Xavier Woods
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
LV
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
KC
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Kirk Cousins
-0.00 EPA/att
Patrick Mahomes◄
0.10 EPA/att
Ashton Jeanty
-0.20 EPA/tch
Kenneth Walker III◄
-0.02 EPA/tch
Tre Tucker◄
0.18 EPA/tgt
Rashee Rice
0.15 EPA/tgt
Brock Bowers
0.22 EPA/tgt
Travis Kelce◄
0.32 EPA/tgt
Bad
11.1% sack rate
Average◄
7.4% sack rate
Adam Butler◄
0.3 disrupt/gm
Khyiris Tonga
0.1 disrupt/gm
Jonah Laulu
no 2025 data
George Karlaftis
0.8 press/gm
Quay Walker◄
0.9 impact/gm
Drue Tranquill
0.7 impact/gm
Eric Stokes◄
0.2 cover/gm
L'Jarius Sneed
0.2 cover/gm
Jeremy Chinn
0.3 cover/gm
Alohi Gilman◄
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
BAL
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
SF
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Lamar Jackson
0.04 EPA/att
Brock Purdy◄
0.13 EPA/att
Derrick Henry
0.02 EPA/tch
Christian McCaffrey◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Zay Flowers◄
0.32 EPA/tgt
Mike Evans
0.06 EPA/tgt
Mark Andrews
0.02 EPA/tgt
George Kittle◄
0.53 EPA/tgt
Good◄
9.6% sack rate
Average
4.5% sack rate
Travis Jones
0.7 disrupt/gm
Osa Odighizuwa◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Calais Campbell◄
0.7 press/gm
Keion White
0.2 press/gm
Roquan Smith◄
0.7 impact/gm
Luke Gifford
0.1 impact/gm
Nate Wiggins◄
0.7 cover/gm
Deommodore Lenoir
0.3 cover/gm
Malaki Starks
0.5 cover/gm
Ji'Ayir Brown◄
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
BUF
OFF Run-heavy · under-center
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
LAC
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Josh Allen◄
0.11 EPA/att
Justin Herbert
0.02 EPA/att
James Cook III◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Omarion Hampton
-0.01 EPA/tch
DJ Moore◄
0.12 EPA/tgt
Ladd McConkey
0.05 EPA/tgt
Dalton Kincaid◄
0.58 EPA/tgt
Charlie Kolar
0.15 EPA/tgt
Good◄
7.5% sack rate
Bad
9.5% sack rate
Deone Walker◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Dalvin Tomlinson
no 2025 data
T.J. Sanders
no 2025 data
Teair Tart
no 2025 data
Greg Rousseau
0.7 impact/gm
Daiyan Henley◄
0.8 impact/gm
Dee Alford◄
0.8 cover/gm
Cam Hart
0.5 cover/gm
Cole Bishop
0.7 cover/gm
Derwin James Jr.◄
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
JAX
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
TB
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Trevor Lawrence◄
0.05 EPA/att
Baker Mayfield
0.00 EPA/att
Bhayshul Tuten◄
-0.03 EPA/tch
Bucky Irving
-0.10 EPA/tch
Brian Thomas Jr.◄
0.14 EPA/tgt
Emeka Egbuka
0.05 EPA/tgt
Brenton Strange◄
0.40 EPA/tgt
Cade Otton
0.03 EPA/tgt
Bad
6.8% sack rate
Average◄
6.4% sack rate
DaVon Hamilton
0.2 disrupt/gm
Vita Vea◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Josh Hines-Allen◄
1.0 press/gm
Calijah Kancey
no 2025 data
Foyesade Oluokun◄
0.9 impact/gm
Yaya Diaby
0.9 impact/gm
Montaric Brown◄
0.7 cover/gm
Jacob Parrish
0.4 cover/gm
Antonio Johnson◄
0.8 cover/gm
Antoine Winfield Jr.
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
WAS
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
NYJ
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Jayden Daniels◄
-0.01 EPA/att
Geno Smith
-0.12 EPA/att
Jacory Croskey-Merritt◄
-0.02 EPA/tch
Breece Hall
-0.04 EPA/tch
Terry McLaurin◄
0.36 EPA/tgt
Garrett Wilson
-0.02 EPA/tgt
Chig Okonkwo◄
0.13 EPA/tgt
Mason Taylor
0.12 EPA/tgt
Good◄
7.3% sack rate
Bad
10.8% sack rate
Daron Payne◄
0.6 disrupt/gm
Harrison Phillips
0.2 disrupt/gm
Tim Settle
no 2025 data
Will McDonald IV◄
0.9 press/gm
Odafe Oweh
0.7 impact/gm
Jamien Sherwood◄
1.0 impact/gm
Mike Sainristil
0.7 cover/gm
Nahshon Wright◄
0.8 cover/gm
Nick Cross◄
0.5 cover/gm
Dane Belton
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
DAL
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
MIA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Dak Prescott◄
0.15 EPA/att
Malik Willis
0.13 EPA/att
Javonte Williams
-0.03 EPA/tch
De'Von Achane◄
0.01 EPA/tch
CeeDee Lamb◄
0.20 EPA/tgt
Malik Washington
-0.10 EPA/tgt
Jake Ferguson
0.16 EPA/tgt
Greg Dulcich◄
0.34 EPA/tgt
Elite◄
4.7% sack rate
Good
7.4% sack rate
Otito Ogbonnia◄
0.3 disrupt/gm
Jordan Phillips
0.2 disrupt/gm
Quinnen Williams
no 2025 data
Chop Robinson
no 2025 data
Dee Winters
0.8 impact/gm
Jordyn Brooks◄
1.2 impact/gm
Cobie Durant◄
0.5 cover/gm
Jason Marshall Jr.
0.3 cover/gm
Malik Hooker◄
0.2 cover/gm
Dante Trader Jr.
0.2 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
CLE
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
HOU
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Deshaun Watson
no 2025 data
C.J. Stroud◄
0.08 EPA/att
Quinshon Judkins
-0.10 EPA/tch
David Montgomery◄
0.02 EPA/tch
Jerry Jeudy
-0.24 EPA/tgt
Nico Collins◄
0.26 EPA/tgt
Harold Fannin Jr.
0.01 EPA/tgt
Dalton Schultz◄
0.29 EPA/tgt
Bad
8.4% sack rate
Average◄
5.1% sack rate
Mason Graham
0.4 disrupt/gm
Tommy Togiai◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Jared Verse
0.9 press/gm
Will Anderson Jr.◄
1.2 press/gm
Carson Schwesinger◄
0.9 impact/gm
Henry To'oTo'o
0.8 impact/gm
Tyson Campbell
0.7 cover/gm
Kamari Lassiter◄
1.0 cover/gm
Grant Delpit
0.4 cover/gm
Reed Blankenship◄
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
NE
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
DEN
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
Drake Maye◄
0.25 EPA/att
Bo Nix
0.08 EPA/att
Rhamondre Stevenson
-0.02 EPA/tch
J.K. Dobbins◄
-0.00 EPA/tch
Romeo Doubs◄
0.30 EPA/tgt
Jaylen Waddle
0.27 EPA/tgt
Hunter Henry◄
0.36 EPA/tgt
Evan Engram
0.04 EPA/tgt
Average
8.7% sack rate
Elite◄
3.6% sack rate
Cory Durden
0.2 disrupt/gm
D.J. Jones◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Christian Barmore
no 2025 data
Zach Allen◄
1.1 press/gm
Dre'Mont Jones
0.6 impact/gm
Nik Bonitto◄
1.2 impact/gm
Carlton Davis III
0.4 cover/gm
Riley Moss◄
0.8 cover/gm
Craig Woodson
0.3 cover/gm
Talanoa Hufanga◄
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
NO
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
LA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Tyler Shough
0.00 EPA/att
Matthew Stafford◄
0.19 EPA/att
Travis Etienne Jr.
-0.03 EPA/tch
Kyren Williams◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Chris Olave
0.19 EPA/tgt
Puka Nacua◄
0.59 EPA/tgt
Juwan Johnson◄
0.29 EPA/tgt
Colby Parkinson
0.17 EPA/tgt
Bad
7.7% sack rate
Elite◄
3.7% sack rate
Davon Godchaux
0.1 disrupt/gm
Poona Ford◄
0.3 disrupt/gm
Colby Wooden
0.2 press/gm
Kobie Turner◄
0.6 press/gm
Kaden Elliss
1.0 impact/gm
Byron Young◄
1.1 impact/gm
Kool-Aid McKinstry◄
0.9 cover/gm
Jaylen Watson
0.4 cover/gm
Justin Reid
0.5 cover/gm
Kamren Kinchens◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
DET
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
MIN
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Jared Goff◄
0.14 EPA/att
Kyler Murray
0.02 EPA/att
Jahmyr Gibbs◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Aaron Jones Sr.
-0.04 EPA/tch
Amon-Ra St. Brown◄
0.28 EPA/tgt
Justin Jefferson
-0.08 EPA/tgt
Sam LaPorta◄
0.54 EPA/tgt
T.J. Hockenson
0.17 EPA/tgt
Good◄
6.3% sack rate
Bad
11.0% sack rate
Tyleik Williams
0.2 disrupt/gm
Caleb Banks◄
no 2025 data
Aidan Hutchinson◄
1.3 press/gm
Levi Drake Rodriguez
no 2025 data
Derrick Barnes
0.7 impact/gm
Eric Wilson◄
1.1 impact/gm
D.J. Reed◄
0.5 cover/gm
Byron Murphy Jr.
0.4 cover/gm
Chuck Clark
0.3 cover/gm
Joshua Metellus◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
IND
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
ATL
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Daniel Jones◄
0.11 EPA/att
Michael Penix Jr.
0.01 EPA/att
Jonathan Taylor◄
0.07 EPA/tch
Bijan Robinson
0.03 EPA/tch
Alec Pierce◄
0.49 EPA/tgt
Drake London
0.18 EPA/tgt
Tyler Warren
0.12 EPA/tgt
Kyle Pitts Sr.◄
0.18 EPA/tgt
Good
5.0% sack rate
Elite◄
4.6% sack rate
Grover Stewart
0.3 disrupt/gm
Gervon Dexter Sr.◄
0.7 disrupt/gm
Laiatu Latu◄
0.9 press/gm
Brandon Dorlus
0.8 press/gm
Akeem Davis-Gaither
0.5 impact/gm
Divine Deablo◄
0.7 impact/gm
Sauce Gardner
0.5 cover/gm
A.J. Terrell Jr.◄
0.5 cover/gm
Cam Bynum◄
0.7 cover/gm
Jessie Bates III
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
SEA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
TEN
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Sam Darnold◄
0.11 EPA/att
Cam Ward
-0.15 EPA/att
Brady Russell◄
-0.01 EPA/tch
Tony Pollard
-0.10 EPA/tch
Jaxon Smith-Njigba◄
0.47 EPA/tgt
Carnell Tate
no 2025 data
AJ Barner◄
0.32 EPA/tgt
Gunnar Helm
0.05 EPA/tgt
Average◄
5.3% sack rate
Bad
8.9% sack rate
Byron Murphy II
0.8 disrupt/gm
Jeffery Simmons◄
1.5 disrupt/gm
Leonard Williams◄
0.8 press/gm
Jermaine Johnson II
0.3 press/gm
DeMarcus Lawrence◄
0.8 impact/gm
Cody Barton
0.7 impact/gm
Josh Jobe◄
0.6 cover/gm
Alontae Taylor
0.6 cover/gm
Ty Okada
0.5 cover/gm
Amani Hooker◄
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
GB
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
CAR
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Jordan Love◄
0.18 EPA/att
Bryce Young
-0.03 EPA/att
MarShawn Lloyd◄
no 2025 data
Chuba Hubbard
-0.05 EPA/tch
Christian Watson◄
0.38 EPA/tgt
Tetairoa McMillan
0.17 EPA/tgt
Tucker Kraft◄
0.62 EPA/tgt
Tommy Tremble
0.15 EPA/tgt
Average
5.6% sack rate
Average◄
6.4% sack rate
Javon Hargrave◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Lee Hunter
no 2025 data
Karl Brooks
no 2025 data
Derrick Brown
no 2025 data
Edgerrin Cooper
0.6 impact/gm
Bobby Okereke◄
0.7 impact/gm
Keisean Nixon
0.7 cover/gm
Mike Jackson◄
1.0 cover/gm
Evan Williams◄
0.6 cover/gm
Nick Scott
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
CIN
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
PIT
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Joe Burrow◄
0.08 EPA/att
Aaron Rodgers
0.04 EPA/att
Chase Brown
-0.04 EPA/tch
Jaylen Warren◄
0.03 EPA/tch
Ja'Marr Chase
0.19 EPA/tgt
DK Metcalf◄
0.26 EPA/tgt
Mike Gesicki
0.07 EPA/tgt
Darnell Washington◄
0.24 EPA/tgt
Good
5.3% sack rate
Good◄
5.3% sack rate
Dexter Lawrence II
0.3 disrupt/gm
Keeanu Benton◄
0.6 disrupt/gm
Boye Mafe
0.2 press/gm
Cameron Heyward◄
0.4 press/gm
Demetrius Knight Jr.◄
0.8 impact/gm
Payton Wilson
0.7 impact/gm
Dax Hill◄
0.5 cover/gm
Jalen Ramsey
0.4 cover/gm
Jordan Battle◄
0.7 cover/gm
Jaquan Brisker
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
Winner accuracy by grade, 1070 games. A high grade means a clearer mismatch — but the books know it too, so higher accuracy here does not mean a betting edge.
All validated trends · out-of-sample (2020–2026)
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