We simulate every NFL game on opponent-adjusted net EPA — offense and defense on both sides set the projected margin, scoring rates set the total — then post only the handful we have the most conviction in. Every posted game gets a grade and a projected score, and every one is graded against the real result.
Graded games
75.9%
the games we post · B+ or better
Full slate
62.5%
every game · n=1070
Market
67.4%
closing line · it’s better
Margin error
10.5
points, full slate
Accuracy is measured against the actual final score — did we pick the winner, and how many points off was the margin — not against the betting line. Across 2019–2025 the simulator calls 62.5% of all games straight up. The market’s closing line calls 67.4% — the NFL is the most efficient market in sports, so the full slate is worse than the market and we say so. It is a prediction tool, not a betting edge: it does not beat the spread. Analysis and entertainment, 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.
Board went 2-0 · full slate 13-3 straight up
Our 2 highest-conviction calls out of 16 games this week. We post at most 6, and nothing below a B+ — a thin week posts fewer rather than padding the board.
NYJ
MIA
18
27
Offense
MIA
Defense
NYJ
Called it ✓
NYJ
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Every game we simulated this week, highest conviction first. The board above is only the ones that cleared B+— here’s the whole week so nothing’s hidden.
NYJ
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
MIA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Geno Smith
-0.12 EPA/att
Malik Willis◄
The grade is our conviction in our own call — how big the projected margin is. Here is how each grade actually performed across 2019–2025:
Net EPA — opponent-adjusted expected points added on offense and defense, both sides of the ball — sets the projected margin. Scoring rates set the total. Ratings are computed as of that week’s kickoff, using only games already played, so nothing is graded with hindsight. Early in the season a team carries its prior-year rating until it has enough games to stand on its own.
It does not beat the spread. The NFL market is the sharpest in sports. We publish this because the projection and the matchup are interesting and we grade ourselves honestly against the real score — not because it prints money.
Also on our board
Separate from the simulator: situational trends mined from 1999–2026 seasons and validated out-of-sample. Only the ones that actually hold up.
The Sizzlin NFL Simulator is analysis and entertainment — not betting advice or a guaranteed outcome. 21+. 1-800-GAMBLER.
MIA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Geno Smith
-0.12 EPA/att
Malik Willis◄
0.13 EPA/att
Breece Hall
-0.04 EPA/tch
De'Von Achane◄
0.01 EPA/tch
Garrett Wilson◄
-0.02 EPA/tgt
Malik Washington
-0.10 EPA/tgt
Mason Taylor
0.12 EPA/tgt
Greg Dulcich◄
0.34 EPA/tgt
Bad
10.8% sack rate
Good◄
7.4% sack rate
Harrison Phillips◄
0.2 disrupt/gm
Jordan Phillips
0.2 disrupt/gm
Will McDonald IV◄
0.9 press/gm
Chop Robinson
no 2025 data
Jamien Sherwood
1.0 impact/gm
Jordyn Brooks◄
1.2 impact/gm
Nahshon Wright◄
0.8 cover/gm
Jason Marshall Jr.
0.3 cover/gm
Dane Belton◄
0.5 cover/gm
Dante Trader Jr.
0.2 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
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0.13 EPA/att
Breece Hall
-0.04 EPA/tch
De'Von Achane◄
0.01 EPA/tch
Garrett Wilson◄
-0.02 EPA/tgt
Malik Washington
-0.10 EPA/tgt
Mason Taylor
0.12 EPA/tgt
Greg Dulcich◄
0.34 EPA/tgt
Bad
10.8% sack rate
Good◄
7.4% sack rate
Harrison Phillips◄
0.2 disrupt/gm
Jordan Phillips
0.2 disrupt/gm
Will McDonald IV◄
0.9 press/gm
Chop Robinson
no 2025 data
Jamien Sherwood
1.0 impact/gm
Jordyn Brooks◄
1.2 impact/gm
Nahshon Wright◄
0.8 cover/gm
Jason Marshall Jr.
0.3 cover/gm
Dane Belton◄
0.5 cover/gm
Dante Trader Jr.
0.2 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
SF
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
ARI
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Brock Purdy◄
0.13 EPA/att
Jacoby Brissett
-0.00 EPA/att
Christian McCaffrey◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Jeremiyah Love
no 2025 data
Mike Evans
0.06 EPA/tgt
Marvin Harrison Jr.◄
0.31 EPA/tgt
George Kittle◄
0.53 EPA/tgt
Trey McBride
0.39 EPA/tgt
Average◄
4.5% sack rate
Bad
8.3% sack rate
Osa Odighizuwa◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Roy Lopez
0.4 disrupt/gm
Keion White
0.2 press/gm
Josh Sweat◄
no 2025 data
Luke Gifford
0.1 impact/gm
Jack Gibbens◄
0.7 impact/gm
Deommodore Lenoir
0.3 cover/gm
Denzel Burke◄
0.7 cover/gm
Ji'Ayir Brown◄
0.5 cover/gm
Budda Baker
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
NYG
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
NO
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Jaxson Dart◄
0.01 EPA/att
Tyler Shough
0.00 EPA/att
Cam Skattebo
-0.05 EPA/tch
Travis Etienne Jr.◄
-0.03 EPA/tch
Malik Nabers
0.04 EPA/tgt
Chris Olave◄
0.19 EPA/tgt
Isaiah Likely
0.10 EPA/tgt
Juwan Johnson◄
0.29 EPA/tgt
Bad◄
8.4% sack rate
Bad
7.7% sack rate
DJ Reader
0.1 disrupt/gm
Davon Godchaux◄
0.1 disrupt/gm
Shelby Harris◄
0.2 press/gm
Colby Wooden
0.2 press/gm
Brian Burns◄
1.8 impact/gm
Kaden Elliss
1.0 impact/gm
Dru Phillips
0.6 cover/gm
Kool-Aid McKinstry◄
0.9 cover/gm
Tyler Nubin
0.3 cover/gm
Justin Reid◄
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
WAS
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
LA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Jayden Daniels
-0.01 EPA/att
Matthew Stafford◄
0.19 EPA/att
Jacory Croskey-Merritt
-0.02 EPA/tch
Kyren Williams◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Terry McLaurin
0.36 EPA/tgt
Puka Nacua◄
0.59 EPA/tgt
Chig Okonkwo
0.13 EPA/tgt
Colby Parkinson◄
0.17 EPA/tgt
Good
7.3% sack rate
Elite◄
3.7% sack rate
Daron Payne◄
0.6 disrupt/gm
Poona Ford
0.3 disrupt/gm
Tim Settle◄
no 2025 data
Kobie Turner
0.6 press/gm
Odafe Oweh
0.7 impact/gm
Byron Young◄
1.1 impact/gm
Mike Sainristil◄
0.7 cover/gm
Jaylen Watson
0.4 cover/gm
Nick Cross
0.5 cover/gm
Kamren Kinchens◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
DEN
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
DET
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
Bo Nix
0.08 EPA/att
Jared Goff◄
0.14 EPA/att
J.K. Dobbins
-0.00 EPA/tch
Jahmyr Gibbs◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Jaylen Waddle
0.27 EPA/tgt
Amon-Ra St. Brown◄
0.28 EPA/tgt
Evan Engram
0.04 EPA/tgt
Sam LaPorta◄
0.54 EPA/tgt
Elite◄
3.6% sack rate
Good
6.3% sack rate
D.J. Jones◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Tyleik Williams
0.2 disrupt/gm
Zach Allen
1.1 press/gm
Aidan Hutchinson◄
1.3 press/gm
Nik Bonitto◄
1.2 impact/gm
Derrick Barnes
0.7 impact/gm
Riley Moss◄
0.8 cover/gm
D.J. Reed
0.5 cover/gm
Talanoa Hufanga◄
0.7 cover/gm
Chuck Clark
0.3 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
TB
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
GB
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Baker Mayfield
0.00 EPA/att
Jordan Love◄
0.18 EPA/att
Bucky Irving
-0.10 EPA/tch
MarShawn Lloyd◄
no 2025 data
Emeka Egbuka
0.05 EPA/tgt
Christian Watson◄
0.38 EPA/tgt
Cade Otton
0.03 EPA/tgt
Tucker Kraft◄
0.62 EPA/tgt
Average
6.4% sack rate
Average◄
5.6% sack rate
Vita Vea◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Javon Hargrave
0.4 disrupt/gm
Calijah Kancey
no 2025 data
Karl Brooks
no 2025 data
Yaya Diaby◄
0.9 impact/gm
Edgerrin Cooper
0.6 impact/gm
Jacob Parrish
0.4 cover/gm
Keisean Nixon◄
0.7 cover/gm
Antoine Winfield Jr.◄
0.6 cover/gm
Evan Williams
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
PIT
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
IND
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Aaron Rodgers
0.04 EPA/att
Daniel Jones◄
0.11 EPA/att
Jaylen Warren
0.03 EPA/tch
Jonathan Taylor◄
0.07 EPA/tch
DK Metcalf
0.26 EPA/tgt
Alec Pierce◄
0.49 EPA/tgt
Darnell Washington◄
0.24 EPA/tgt
Tyler Warren
0.12 EPA/tgt
Good
5.3% sack rate
Good◄
5.0% sack rate
Keeanu Benton◄
0.6 disrupt/gm
Grover Stewart
0.3 disrupt/gm
Cameron Heyward
0.4 press/gm
Laiatu Latu◄
0.9 press/gm
Payton Wilson◄
0.7 impact/gm
Akeem Davis-Gaither
0.5 impact/gm
Jalen Ramsey
0.4 cover/gm
Sauce Gardner◄
0.5 cover/gm
Jaquan Brisker
0.6 cover/gm
Cam Bynum◄
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
CHI
OFF Balanced · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
CLE
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Caleb Williams◄
0.06 EPA/att
Deshaun Watson
no 2025 data
D'Andre Swift◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Quinshon Judkins
-0.10 EPA/tch
Rome Odunze◄
0.18 EPA/tgt
Jerry Jeudy
-0.24 EPA/tgt
Colston Loveland◄
0.47 EPA/tgt
Harold Fannin Jr.
0.01 EPA/tgt
Elite◄
4.0% sack rate
Bad
8.4% sack rate
Grady Jarrett
0.3 disrupt/gm
Mason Graham◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Montez Sweat
0.9 press/gm
Jared Verse◄
0.9 press/gm
Devin Bush◄
0.9 impact/gm
Carson Schwesinger
0.9 impact/gm
Cam Lewis
0.2 cover/gm
Tyson Campbell◄
0.7 cover/gm
Xavier Woods◄
0.4 cover/gm
Grant Delpit
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
BAL
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
JAX
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Lamar Jackson
0.04 EPA/att
Trevor Lawrence◄
0.05 EPA/att
Derrick Henry◄
0.02 EPA/tch
Bhayshul Tuten
-0.03 EPA/tch
Zay Flowers◄
0.32 EPA/tgt
Brian Thomas Jr.
0.14 EPA/tgt
Mark Andrews
0.02 EPA/tgt
Brenton Strange◄
0.40 EPA/tgt
Good◄
9.6% sack rate
Bad
6.8% sack rate
Travis Jones◄
0.7 disrupt/gm
DaVon Hamilton
0.2 disrupt/gm
Calais Campbell
0.7 press/gm
Josh Hines-Allen◄
1.0 press/gm
Roquan Smith
0.7 impact/gm
Foyesade Oluokun◄
0.9 impact/gm
Nate Wiggins◄
0.7 cover/gm
Montaric Brown
0.7 cover/gm
Malaki Starks
0.5 cover/gm
Antonio Johnson◄
0.8 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
PHI
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · four-man rush
SEA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Jalen Hurts
0.05 EPA/att
Sam Darnold◄
0.11 EPA/att
Saquon Barkley
-0.08 EPA/tch
Brady Russell◄
-0.01 EPA/tch
DeVonta Smith
0.38 EPA/tgt
Jaxon Smith-Njigba◄
0.47 EPA/tgt
Dallas Goedert◄
0.36 EPA/tgt
AJ Barner
0.32 EPA/tgt
Average
6.6% sack rate
Average◄
5.3% sack rate
Average
no data
Byron Murphy II◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Jalen Carter
no 2025 data
Leonard Williams
0.8 press/gm
Zack Baun◄
1.0 impact/gm
DeMarcus Lawrence
0.8 impact/gm
Quinyon Mitchell◄
0.7 cover/gm
Josh Jobe
0.6 cover/gm
Andrew Mukuba
0.4 cover/gm
Ty Okada◄
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
DAL
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
BUF
OFF Run-heavy · under-center
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Dak Prescott◄
0.15 EPA/att
Josh Allen
0.11 EPA/att
Javonte Williams
-0.03 EPA/tch
James Cook III◄
0.04 EPA/tch
CeeDee Lamb◄
0.20 EPA/tgt
DJ Moore
0.12 EPA/tgt
Jake Ferguson
0.16 EPA/tgt
Dalton Kincaid◄
0.58 EPA/tgt
Elite◄
4.7% sack rate
Good
7.5% sack rate
Otito Ogbonnia
0.3 disrupt/gm
Deone Walker◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Quinnen Williams
no 2025 data
T.J. Sanders
no 2025 data
Dee Winters◄
0.8 impact/gm
Greg Rousseau
0.7 impact/gm
Cobie Durant
0.5 cover/gm
Dee Alford◄
0.8 cover/gm
Malik Hooker
0.2 cover/gm
Cole Bishop◄
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
ATL
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
CAR
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Michael Penix Jr.◄
0.01 EPA/att
Bryce Young
-0.03 EPA/att
Bijan Robinson◄
0.03 EPA/tch
Chuba Hubbard
-0.05 EPA/tch
Drake London◄
0.18 EPA/tgt
Tetairoa McMillan
0.17 EPA/tgt
Kyle Pitts Sr.◄
0.18 EPA/tgt
Tommy Tremble
0.15 EPA/tgt
Elite◄
4.6% sack rate
Average
6.4% sack rate
Gervon Dexter Sr.◄
0.7 disrupt/gm
Lee Hunter
no 2025 data
Brandon Dorlus
0.8 press/gm
Derrick Brown◄
no 2025 data
Divine Deablo◄
0.7 impact/gm
Bobby Okereke
0.7 impact/gm
A.J. Terrell Jr.
0.5 cover/gm
Mike Jackson◄
1.0 cover/gm
Jessie Bates III◄
0.6 cover/gm
Nick Scott
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
KC
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
NE
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Patrick Mahomes
0.10 EPA/att
Drake Maye◄
0.25 EPA/att
Kenneth Walker III
-0.02 EPA/tch
Rhamondre Stevenson◄
-0.02 EPA/tch
Rashee Rice
0.15 EPA/tgt
Romeo Doubs◄
0.30 EPA/tgt
Travis Kelce
0.32 EPA/tgt
Hunter Henry◄
0.36 EPA/tgt
Average
7.4% sack rate
Average◄
8.7% sack rate
Khyiris Tonga
0.1 disrupt/gm
Cory Durden◄
0.2 disrupt/gm
George Karlaftis
0.8 press/gm
Christian Barmore
no 2025 data
Drue Tranquill◄
0.7 impact/gm
Dre'Mont Jones
0.6 impact/gm
L'Jarius Sneed
0.2 cover/gm
Carlton Davis III◄
0.4 cover/gm
Alohi Gilman◄
0.5 cover/gm
Craig Woodson
0.3 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
HOU
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
TEN
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
C.J. Stroud◄
0.08 EPA/att
Cam Ward
-0.15 EPA/att
David Montgomery◄
0.02 EPA/tch
Tony Pollard
-0.10 EPA/tch
Nico Collins◄
0.26 EPA/tgt
Carnell Tate
no 2025 data
Dalton Schultz◄
0.29 EPA/tgt
Gunnar Helm
0.05 EPA/tgt
Average◄
5.1% sack rate
Bad
8.9% sack rate
Tommy Togiai
0.4 disrupt/gm
Jeffery Simmons◄
1.5 disrupt/gm
Will Anderson Jr.◄
1.2 press/gm
Jermaine Johnson II
0.3 press/gm
Henry To'oTo'o◄
0.8 impact/gm
Cody Barton
0.7 impact/gm
Kamari Lassiter◄
1.0 cover/gm
Alontae Taylor
0.6 cover/gm
Reed Blankenship
0.4 cover/gm
Amani Hooker◄
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
LAC
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
LV
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Justin Herbert◄
0.02 EPA/att
Kirk Cousins
-0.00 EPA/att
Omarion Hampton◄
-0.01 EPA/tch
Ashton Jeanty
-0.20 EPA/tch
Ladd McConkey
0.05 EPA/tgt
Tre Tucker◄
0.18 EPA/tgt
Charlie Kolar
0.15 EPA/tgt
Brock Bowers◄
0.22 EPA/tgt
Bad◄
9.5% sack rate
Bad
11.1% sack rate
Dalvin Tomlinson◄
no 2025 data
Adam Butler
0.3 disrupt/gm
Teair Tart
no 2025 data
Jonah Laulu
no 2025 data
Daiyan Henley
0.8 impact/gm
Quay Walker◄
0.9 impact/gm
Cam Hart◄
0.5 cover/gm
Eric Stokes
0.2 cover/gm
Derwin James Jr.◄
0.7 cover/gm
Jeremy Chinn
0.3 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
MIN
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
CIN
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Kyler Murray
0.02 EPA/att
Joe Burrow◄
0.08 EPA/att
Aaron Jones Sr.
-0.04 EPA/tch
Chase Brown◄
-0.04 EPA/tch
Justin Jefferson
-0.08 EPA/tgt
Ja'Marr Chase◄
0.19 EPA/tgt
T.J. Hockenson◄
0.17 EPA/tgt
Mike Gesicki
0.07 EPA/tgt
Bad
11.0% sack rate
Good◄
5.3% sack rate
Caleb Banks◄
no 2025 data
Dexter Lawrence II
0.3 disrupt/gm
Levi Drake Rodriguez◄
no 2025 data
Boye Mafe
0.2 press/gm
Eric Wilson◄
1.1 impact/gm
Demetrius Knight Jr.
0.8 impact/gm
Byron Murphy Jr.
0.4 cover/gm
Dax Hill◄
0.5 cover/gm
Joshua Metellus
0.6 cover/gm
Jordan Battle◄
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
Winner accuracy by grade, 1070 games. A high grade means a clearer mismatch — but the books know it too, so higher accuracy here does not mean a betting edge.
All validated trends · out-of-sample (2020–2026)
NFL · Members
The full board, confidence ratings, and daily plays — plus the complete track record. New plays every morning. The track record and featured picks above stay free.
NFL Pass
$9.99/mo
Just NFL
All-AccessBest value
$29.99/mo
All 5 sports
Secure checkout via Stripe. Cancel anytime. 21+. Bet responsibly.
