We simulate every NFL game on opponent-adjusted net EPA — offense and defense on both sides set the projected margin, scoring rates set the total — then post only the handful we have the most conviction in. Every posted game gets a grade and a projected score, and every one is graded against the real result.
Graded games
75.9%
the games we post · B+ or better
Full slate
62.5%
every game · n=1070
Market
67.4%
closing line · it’s better
Margin error
10.5
points, full slate
Accuracy is measured against the actual final score — did we pick the winner, and how many points off was the margin — not against the betting line. Across 2019–2025 the simulator calls 62.5% of all games straight up. The market’s closing line calls 67.4% — the NFL is the most efficient market in sports, so the full slate is worse than the market and we say so. It is a prediction tool, not a betting edge: it does not beat the spread. Analysis and entertainment, 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.
Board went 1-0 · full slate 7-6 straight up
Our 1 highest-conviction calls out of 13 games this week. We post at most 6, and nothing below a B+ — a thin week posts fewer rather than padding the board.
SEA
DAL
19
27
Offense
DAL
Defense
DAL
Called it ✓
SEA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
DAL
Pass-heavy · mixed sets
Every game we simulated this week, highest conviction first. The board above is only the ones that cleared B+— here’s the whole week so nothing’s hidden.
SEA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
DAL
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Sam Darnold
0.11 EPA/att
Dak Prescott
The grade is our conviction in our own call — how big the projected margin is. Here is how each grade actually performed across 2019–2025:
Net EPA — opponent-adjusted expected points added on offense and defense, both sides of the ball — sets the projected margin. Scoring rates set the total. Ratings are computed as of that week’s kickoff, using only games already played, so nothing is graded with hindsight. Early in the season a team carries its prior-year rating until it has enough games to stand on its own.
It does not beat the spread. The NFL market is the sharpest in sports. We publish this because the projection and the matchup are interesting and we grade ourselves honestly against the real score — not because it prints money.
Also on our board
Separate from the simulator: situational trends mined from 1999–2026 seasons and validated out-of-sample. Only the ones that actually hold up.
The Sizzlin NFL Simulator is analysis and entertainment — not betting advice or a guaranteed outcome. 21+. 1-800-GAMBLER.
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Sam Darnold
0.11 EPA/att
Dak Prescott◄
0.15 EPA/att
Brady Russell◄
-0.01 EPA/tch
Javonte Williams
-0.03 EPA/tch
Jaxon Smith-Njigba◄
0.47 EPA/tgt
CeeDee Lamb
0.20 EPA/tgt
AJ Barner◄
0.32 EPA/tgt
Jake Ferguson
0.16 EPA/tgt
Average
5.3% sack rate
Elite◄
4.7% sack rate
Byron Murphy II◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Otito Ogbonnia
0.3 disrupt/gm
Leonard Williams
0.8 press/gm
Quinnen Williams
no 2025 data
DeMarcus Lawrence
0.8 impact/gm
Dee Winters◄
0.8 impact/gm
Josh Jobe◄
0.6 cover/gm
Cobie Durant
0.5 cover/gm
Ty Okada◄
0.5 cover/gm
Malik Hooker
0.2 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
0.15 EPA/att
Brady Russell◄
-0.01 EPA/tch
Javonte Williams
-0.03 EPA/tch
Jaxon Smith-Njigba◄
0.47 EPA/tgt
CeeDee Lamb
0.20 EPA/tgt
AJ Barner◄
0.32 EPA/tgt
Jake Ferguson
0.16 EPA/tgt
Average
5.3% sack rate
Elite◄
4.7% sack rate
Byron Murphy II◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Otito Ogbonnia
0.3 disrupt/gm
Leonard Williams
0.8 press/gm
Quinnen Williams
no 2025 data
DeMarcus Lawrence
0.8 impact/gm
Dee Winters◄
0.8 impact/gm
Josh Jobe◄
0.6 cover/gm
Cobie Durant
0.5 cover/gm
Ty Okada◄
0.5 cover/gm
Malik Hooker
0.2 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
CAR
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
TB
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Bryce Young
-0.03 EPA/att
Baker Mayfield◄
0.00 EPA/att
Chuba Hubbard◄
-0.05 EPA/tch
Bucky Irving
-0.10 EPA/tch
Tetairoa McMillan◄
0.17 EPA/tgt
Emeka Egbuka
0.05 EPA/tgt
Tommy Tremble◄
0.15 EPA/tgt
Cade Otton
0.03 EPA/tgt
Average◄
6.4% sack rate
Average
6.4% sack rate
Lee Hunter
no 2025 data
Vita Vea◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Derrick Brown
no 2025 data
Calijah Kancey
no 2025 data
Bobby Okereke
0.7 impact/gm
Yaya Diaby◄
0.9 impact/gm
Mike Jackson◄
1.0 cover/gm
Jacob Parrish
0.4 cover/gm
Nick Scott
0.4 cover/gm
Antoine Winfield Jr.◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
ARI
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
PIT
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Jacoby Brissett
-0.00 EPA/att
Aaron Rodgers◄
0.04 EPA/att
Jeremiyah Love
no 2025 data
Jaylen Warren◄
0.03 EPA/tch
Marvin Harrison Jr.◄
0.31 EPA/tgt
DK Metcalf
0.26 EPA/tgt
Trey McBride◄
0.39 EPA/tgt
Darnell Washington
0.24 EPA/tgt
Bad
8.3% sack rate
Good◄
5.3% sack rate
Roy Lopez
0.4 disrupt/gm
Keeanu Benton◄
0.6 disrupt/gm
Josh Sweat◄
no 2025 data
Cameron Heyward
0.4 press/gm
Jack Gibbens
0.7 impact/gm
Payton Wilson◄
0.7 impact/gm
Denzel Burke◄
0.7 cover/gm
Jalen Ramsey
0.4 cover/gm
Budda Baker
0.5 cover/gm
Jaquan Brisker◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
DEN
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
HOU
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Bo Nix◄
0.08 EPA/att
C.J. Stroud
0.08 EPA/att
J.K. Dobbins
-0.00 EPA/tch
David Montgomery◄
0.02 EPA/tch
Jaylen Waddle◄
0.27 EPA/tgt
Nico Collins
0.26 EPA/tgt
Evan Engram
0.04 EPA/tgt
Dalton Schultz◄
0.29 EPA/tgt
Elite◄
3.6% sack rate
Average
5.1% sack rate
D.J. Jones
0.4 disrupt/gm
Tommy Togiai◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Zach Allen
1.1 press/gm
Will Anderson Jr.◄
1.2 press/gm
Nik Bonitto◄
1.2 impact/gm
Henry To'oTo'o
0.8 impact/gm
Riley Moss
0.8 cover/gm
Kamari Lassiter◄
1.0 cover/gm
Talanoa Hufanga◄
0.7 cover/gm
Reed Blankenship
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
MIA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
WAS
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Malik Willis◄
0.13 EPA/att
Jayden Daniels
-0.01 EPA/att
De'Von Achane◄
0.01 EPA/tch
Jacory Croskey-Merritt
-0.02 EPA/tch
Malik Washington
-0.10 EPA/tgt
Terry McLaurin◄
0.36 EPA/tgt
Greg Dulcich◄
0.34 EPA/tgt
Chig Okonkwo
0.13 EPA/tgt
Good
7.4% sack rate
Good◄
7.3% sack rate
Jordan Phillips
0.2 disrupt/gm
Daron Payne◄
0.6 disrupt/gm
Chop Robinson
no 2025 data
Tim Settle
no 2025 data
Jordyn Brooks◄
1.2 impact/gm
Odafe Oweh
0.7 impact/gm
Jason Marshall Jr.
0.3 cover/gm
Mike Sainristil◄
0.7 cover/gm
Dante Trader Jr.
0.2 cover/gm
Nick Cross◄
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
CIN
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
JAX
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Joe Burrow◄
0.08 EPA/att
Trevor Lawrence
0.05 EPA/att
Chase Brown
-0.04 EPA/tch
Bhayshul Tuten◄
-0.03 EPA/tch
Ja'Marr Chase◄
0.19 EPA/tgt
Brian Thomas Jr.
0.14 EPA/tgt
Mike Gesicki
0.07 EPA/tgt
Brenton Strange◄
0.40 EPA/tgt
Good◄
5.3% sack rate
Bad
6.8% sack rate
Dexter Lawrence II◄
0.3 disrupt/gm
DaVon Hamilton
0.2 disrupt/gm
Boye Mafe
0.2 press/gm
Josh Hines-Allen◄
1.0 press/gm
Demetrius Knight Jr.
0.8 impact/gm
Foyesade Oluokun◄
0.9 impact/gm
Dax Hill
0.5 cover/gm
Montaric Brown◄
0.7 cover/gm
Jordan Battle
0.7 cover/gm
Antonio Johnson◄
0.8 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
CLE
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
LA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Deshaun Watson
no 2025 data
Matthew Stafford◄
0.19 EPA/att
Quinshon Judkins
-0.10 EPA/tch
Kyren Williams◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Jerry Jeudy
-0.24 EPA/tgt
Puka Nacua◄
0.59 EPA/tgt
Harold Fannin Jr.
0.01 EPA/tgt
Colby Parkinson◄
0.17 EPA/tgt
Bad
8.4% sack rate
Elite◄
3.7% sack rate
Mason Graham◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Poona Ford
0.3 disrupt/gm
Jared Verse◄
0.9 press/gm
Kobie Turner
0.6 press/gm
Carson Schwesinger
0.9 impact/gm
Byron Young◄
1.1 impact/gm
Tyson Campbell◄
0.7 cover/gm
Jaylen Watson
0.4 cover/gm
Grant Delpit
0.4 cover/gm
Kamren Kinchens◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
SF
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
PHI
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · four-man rush
Brock Purdy◄
0.13 EPA/att
Jalen Hurts
0.05 EPA/att
Christian McCaffrey◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Saquon Barkley
-0.08 EPA/tch
Mike Evans
0.06 EPA/tgt
DeVonta Smith◄
0.38 EPA/tgt
George Kittle◄
0.53 EPA/tgt
Dallas Goedert
0.36 EPA/tgt
Average
4.5% sack rate
Average◄
6.6% sack rate
Osa Odighizuwa◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Average
no data
Keion White
0.2 press/gm
Jalen Carter◄
no 2025 data
Luke Gifford
0.1 impact/gm
Zack Baun◄
1.0 impact/gm
Deommodore Lenoir
0.3 cover/gm
Quinyon Mitchell◄
0.7 cover/gm
Ji'Ayir Brown◄
0.5 cover/gm
Andrew Mukuba
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
DET
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
NO
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Jared Goff◄
0.14 EPA/att
Tyler Shough
0.00 EPA/att
Jahmyr Gibbs◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Travis Etienne Jr.
-0.03 EPA/tch
Amon-Ra St. Brown◄
0.28 EPA/tgt
Chris Olave
0.19 EPA/tgt
Sam LaPorta◄
0.54 EPA/tgt
Juwan Johnson
0.29 EPA/tgt
Good◄
6.3% sack rate
Bad
7.7% sack rate
Tyleik Williams◄
0.2 disrupt/gm
Davon Godchaux
0.1 disrupt/gm
Aidan Hutchinson◄
1.3 press/gm
Colby Wooden
0.2 press/gm
Derrick Barnes
0.7 impact/gm
Kaden Elliss◄
1.0 impact/gm
D.J. Reed
0.5 cover/gm
Kool-Aid McKinstry◄
0.9 cover/gm
Chuck Clark
0.3 cover/gm
Justin Reid◄
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
IND
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
TEN
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Daniel Jones◄
0.11 EPA/att
Cam Ward
-0.15 EPA/att
Jonathan Taylor◄
0.07 EPA/tch
Tony Pollard
-0.10 EPA/tch
Alec Pierce◄
0.49 EPA/tgt
Carnell Tate
no 2025 data
Tyler Warren◄
0.12 EPA/tgt
Gunnar Helm
0.05 EPA/tgt
Good◄
5.0% sack rate
Bad
8.9% sack rate
Grover Stewart
0.3 disrupt/gm
Jeffery Simmons◄
1.5 disrupt/gm
Laiatu Latu◄
0.9 press/gm
Jermaine Johnson II
0.3 press/gm
Akeem Davis-Gaither
0.5 impact/gm
Cody Barton◄
0.7 impact/gm
Sauce Gardner
0.5 cover/gm
Alontae Taylor◄
0.6 cover/gm
Cam Bynum◄
0.7 cover/gm
Amani Hooker
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
KC
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
GB
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Patrick Mahomes
0.10 EPA/att
Jordan Love◄
0.18 EPA/att
Kenneth Walker III
-0.02 EPA/tch
MarShawn Lloyd◄
no 2025 data
Rashee Rice
0.15 EPA/tgt
Christian Watson◄
0.38 EPA/tgt
Travis Kelce
0.32 EPA/tgt
Tucker Kraft◄
0.62 EPA/tgt
Average
7.4% sack rate
Average◄
5.6% sack rate
Khyiris Tonga
0.1 disrupt/gm
Javon Hargrave◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
George Karlaftis
0.8 press/gm
Karl Brooks
no 2025 data
Drue Tranquill◄
0.7 impact/gm
Edgerrin Cooper
0.6 impact/gm
L'Jarius Sneed
0.2 cover/gm
Keisean Nixon◄
0.7 cover/gm
Alohi Gilman
0.5 cover/gm
Evan Williams◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
LAC
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
NE
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Justin Herbert
0.02 EPA/att
Drake Maye◄
0.25 EPA/att
Omarion Hampton◄
-0.01 EPA/tch
Rhamondre Stevenson
-0.02 EPA/tch
Ladd McConkey
0.05 EPA/tgt
Romeo Doubs◄
0.30 EPA/tgt
Charlie Kolar
0.15 EPA/tgt
Hunter Henry◄
0.36 EPA/tgt
Bad
9.5% sack rate
Average◄
8.7% sack rate
Dalvin Tomlinson◄
no 2025 data
Cory Durden
0.2 disrupt/gm
Teair Tart
no 2025 data
Christian Barmore
no 2025 data
Daiyan Henley◄
0.8 impact/gm
Dre'Mont Jones
0.6 impact/gm
Cam Hart◄
0.5 cover/gm
Carlton Davis III
0.4 cover/gm
Derwin James Jr.◄
0.7 cover/gm
Craig Woodson
0.3 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
ATL
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
NYJ
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Michael Penix Jr.◄
0.01 EPA/att
Geno Smith
-0.12 EPA/att
Bijan Robinson◄
0.03 EPA/tch
Breece Hall
-0.04 EPA/tch
Drake London◄
0.18 EPA/tgt
Garrett Wilson
-0.02 EPA/tgt
Kyle Pitts Sr.◄
0.18 EPA/tgt
Mason Taylor
0.12 EPA/tgt
Elite◄
4.6% sack rate
Bad
10.8% sack rate
Gervon Dexter Sr.◄
0.7 disrupt/gm
Harrison Phillips
0.2 disrupt/gm
Brandon Dorlus
0.8 press/gm
Will McDonald IV◄
0.9 press/gm
Divine Deablo
0.7 impact/gm
Jamien Sherwood◄
1.0 impact/gm
A.J. Terrell Jr.
0.5 cover/gm
Nahshon Wright◄
0.8 cover/gm
Jessie Bates III◄
0.6 cover/gm
Dane Belton
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
Winner accuracy by grade, 1070 games. A high grade means a clearer mismatch — but the books know it too, so higher accuracy here does not mean a betting edge.
All validated trends · out-of-sample (2020–2026)
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