We simulate every NFL game on opponent-adjusted net EPA — offense and defense on both sides set the projected margin, scoring rates set the total — then post only the handful we have the most conviction in. Every posted game gets a grade and a projected score, and every one is graded against the real result.
Graded games
75.9%
the games we post · B+ or better
Full slate
62.5%
every game · n=1070
Market
67.4%
closing line · it’s better
Margin error
10.5
points, full slate
Accuracy is measured against the actual final score — did we pick the winner, and how many points off was the margin — not against the betting line. Across 2019–2025 the simulator calls 62.5% of all games straight up. The market’s closing line calls 67.4% — the NFL is the most efficient market in sports, so the full slate is worse than the market and we say so. It is a prediction tool, not a betting edge: it does not beat the spread. Analysis and entertainment, 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.
Board went 1-0 · full slate 10-6 straight up
Our 1 highest-conviction calls out of 16 games this week. We post at most 6, and nothing below a B+ — a thin week posts fewer rather than padding the board.
WAS
DAL
19
29
Offense
DAL
Defense
DAL
Called it ✓
WAS
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
DAL
Pass-heavy · mixed sets
Every game we simulated this week, highest conviction first. The board above is only the ones that cleared B+— here’s the whole week so nothing’s hidden.
WAS
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
DAL
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Jayden Daniels
-0.01 EPA/att
Dak Prescott
The grade is our conviction in our own call — how big the projected margin is. Here is how each grade actually performed across 2019–2025:
Net EPA — opponent-adjusted expected points added on offense and defense, both sides of the ball — sets the projected margin. Scoring rates set the total. Ratings are computed as of that week’s kickoff, using only games already played, so nothing is graded with hindsight. Early in the season a team carries its prior-year rating until it has enough games to stand on its own.
It does not beat the spread. The NFL market is the sharpest in sports. We publish this because the projection and the matchup are interesting and we grade ourselves honestly against the real score — not because it prints money.
Also on our board
Separate from the simulator: situational trends mined from 1999–2026 seasons and validated out-of-sample. Only the ones that actually hold up.
The Sizzlin NFL Simulator is analysis and entertainment — not betting advice or a guaranteed outcome. 21+. 1-800-GAMBLER.
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Jayden Daniels
-0.01 EPA/att
Dak Prescott◄
0.15 EPA/att
Jacory Croskey-Merritt◄
-0.02 EPA/tch
Javonte Williams
-0.03 EPA/tch
Terry McLaurin◄
0.36 EPA/tgt
CeeDee Lamb
0.20 EPA/tgt
Chig Okonkwo
0.13 EPA/tgt
Jake Ferguson◄
0.16 EPA/tgt
Good
7.3% sack rate
Elite◄
4.7% sack rate
Daron Payne◄
0.6 disrupt/gm
Otito Ogbonnia
0.3 disrupt/gm
Tim Settle
no 2025 data
Quinnen Williams
no 2025 data
Odafe Oweh
0.7 impact/gm
Dee Winters◄
0.8 impact/gm
Mike Sainristil◄
0.7 cover/gm
Cobie Durant
0.5 cover/gm
Nick Cross◄
0.5 cover/gm
Malik Hooker
0.2 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
0.15 EPA/att
Jacory Croskey-Merritt◄
-0.02 EPA/tch
Javonte Williams
-0.03 EPA/tch
Terry McLaurin◄
0.36 EPA/tgt
CeeDee Lamb
0.20 EPA/tgt
Chig Okonkwo
0.13 EPA/tgt
Jake Ferguson◄
0.16 EPA/tgt
Good
7.3% sack rate
Elite◄
4.7% sack rate
Daron Payne◄
0.6 disrupt/gm
Otito Ogbonnia
0.3 disrupt/gm
Tim Settle
no 2025 data
Quinnen Williams
no 2025 data
Odafe Oweh
0.7 impact/gm
Dee Winters◄
0.8 impact/gm
Mike Sainristil◄
0.7 cover/gm
Cobie Durant
0.5 cover/gm
Nick Cross◄
0.5 cover/gm
Malik Hooker
0.2 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
CHI
OFF Balanced · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
MIN
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Caleb Williams◄
0.06 EPA/att
Kyler Murray
0.02 EPA/att
D'Andre Swift◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Aaron Jones Sr.
-0.04 EPA/tch
Rome Odunze◄
0.18 EPA/tgt
Justin Jefferson
-0.08 EPA/tgt
Colston Loveland◄
0.47 EPA/tgt
T.J. Hockenson
0.17 EPA/tgt
Elite◄
4.0% sack rate
Bad
11.0% sack rate
Grady Jarrett
0.3 disrupt/gm
Caleb Banks◄
no 2025 data
Montez Sweat◄
0.9 press/gm
Levi Drake Rodriguez
no 2025 data
Devin Bush
0.9 impact/gm
Eric Wilson◄
1.1 impact/gm
Cam Lewis
0.2 cover/gm
Byron Murphy Jr.◄
0.4 cover/gm
Xavier Woods
0.4 cover/gm
Joshua Metellus◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
CAR
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
TEN
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Bryce Young◄
-0.03 EPA/att
Cam Ward
-0.15 EPA/att
Chuba Hubbard◄
-0.05 EPA/tch
Tony Pollard
-0.10 EPA/tch
Tetairoa McMillan
0.17 EPA/tgt
Carnell Tate◄
no 2025 data
Tommy Tremble◄
0.15 EPA/tgt
Gunnar Helm
0.05 EPA/tgt
Average◄
6.4% sack rate
Bad
8.9% sack rate
Lee Hunter
no 2025 data
Jeffery Simmons◄
1.5 disrupt/gm
Derrick Brown◄
no 2025 data
Jermaine Johnson II
0.3 press/gm
Bobby Okereke
0.7 impact/gm
Cody Barton◄
0.7 impact/gm
Mike Jackson◄
1.0 cover/gm
Alontae Taylor
0.6 cover/gm
Nick Scott
0.4 cover/gm
Amani Hooker◄
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
GB
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
DET
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
Jordan Love◄
0.18 EPA/att
Jared Goff
0.14 EPA/att
MarShawn Lloyd
no 2025 data
Jahmyr Gibbs◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Christian Watson◄
0.38 EPA/tgt
Amon-Ra St. Brown
0.28 EPA/tgt
Tucker Kraft◄
0.62 EPA/tgt
Sam LaPorta
0.54 EPA/tgt
Average
5.6% sack rate
Good◄
6.3% sack rate
Javon Hargrave◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Tyleik Williams
0.2 disrupt/gm
Karl Brooks
no 2025 data
Aidan Hutchinson◄
1.3 press/gm
Edgerrin Cooper
0.6 impact/gm
Derrick Barnes◄
0.7 impact/gm
Keisean Nixon◄
0.7 cover/gm
D.J. Reed
0.5 cover/gm
Evan Williams◄
0.6 cover/gm
Chuck Clark
0.3 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
JAX
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
HOU
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Trevor Lawrence
0.05 EPA/att
C.J. Stroud◄
0.08 EPA/att
Bhayshul Tuten
-0.03 EPA/tch
David Montgomery◄
0.02 EPA/tch
Brian Thomas Jr.
0.14 EPA/tgt
Nico Collins◄
0.26 EPA/tgt
Brenton Strange◄
0.40 EPA/tgt
Dalton Schultz
0.29 EPA/tgt
Bad
6.8% sack rate
Average◄
5.1% sack rate
DaVon Hamilton
0.2 disrupt/gm
Tommy Togiai◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Josh Hines-Allen
1.0 press/gm
Will Anderson Jr.◄
1.2 press/gm
Foyesade Oluokun◄
0.9 impact/gm
Henry To'oTo'o
0.8 impact/gm
Montaric Brown
0.7 cover/gm
Kamari Lassiter◄
1.0 cover/gm
Antonio Johnson◄
0.8 cover/gm
Reed Blankenship
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
MIA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
NYJ
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Malik Willis◄
0.13 EPA/att
Geno Smith
-0.12 EPA/att
De'Von Achane◄
0.01 EPA/tch
Breece Hall
-0.04 EPA/tch
Malik Washington
-0.10 EPA/tgt
Garrett Wilson◄
-0.02 EPA/tgt
Greg Dulcich◄
0.34 EPA/tgt
Mason Taylor
0.12 EPA/tgt
Good◄
7.4% sack rate
Bad
10.8% sack rate
Jordan Phillips
0.2 disrupt/gm
Harrison Phillips◄
0.2 disrupt/gm
Chop Robinson
no 2025 data
Will McDonald IV◄
0.9 press/gm
Jordyn Brooks◄
1.2 impact/gm
Jamien Sherwood
1.0 impact/gm
Jason Marshall Jr.
0.3 cover/gm
Nahshon Wright◄
0.8 cover/gm
Dante Trader Jr.
0.2 cover/gm
Dane Belton◄
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
PIT
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
CIN
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Aaron Rodgers
0.04 EPA/att
Joe Burrow◄
0.08 EPA/att
Jaylen Warren◄
0.03 EPA/tch
Chase Brown
-0.04 EPA/tch
DK Metcalf◄
0.26 EPA/tgt
Ja'Marr Chase
0.19 EPA/tgt
Darnell Washington◄
0.24 EPA/tgt
Mike Gesicki
0.07 EPA/tgt
Good◄
5.3% sack rate
Good
5.3% sack rate
Keeanu Benton◄
0.6 disrupt/gm
Dexter Lawrence II
0.3 disrupt/gm
Cameron Heyward◄
0.4 press/gm
Boye Mafe
0.2 press/gm
Payton Wilson
0.7 impact/gm
Demetrius Knight Jr.◄
0.8 impact/gm
Jalen Ramsey
0.4 cover/gm
Dax Hill◄
0.5 cover/gm
Jaquan Brisker
0.6 cover/gm
Jordan Battle◄
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
TB
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
IND
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Baker Mayfield
0.00 EPA/att
Daniel Jones◄
0.11 EPA/att
Bucky Irving
-0.10 EPA/tch
Jonathan Taylor◄
0.07 EPA/tch
Emeka Egbuka
0.05 EPA/tgt
Alec Pierce◄
0.49 EPA/tgt
Cade Otton
0.03 EPA/tgt
Tyler Warren◄
0.12 EPA/tgt
Average
6.4% sack rate
Good◄
5.0% sack rate
Vita Vea◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Grover Stewart
0.3 disrupt/gm
Calijah Kancey
no 2025 data
Laiatu Latu◄
0.9 press/gm
Yaya Diaby◄
0.9 impact/gm
Akeem Davis-Gaither
0.5 impact/gm
Jacob Parrish
0.4 cover/gm
Sauce Gardner◄
0.5 cover/gm
Antoine Winfield Jr.
0.6 cover/gm
Cam Bynum◄
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
KC
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
LV
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Patrick Mahomes◄
0.10 EPA/att
Kirk Cousins
-0.00 EPA/att
Kenneth Walker III◄
-0.02 EPA/tch
Ashton Jeanty
-0.20 EPA/tch
Rashee Rice
0.15 EPA/tgt
Tre Tucker◄
0.18 EPA/tgt
Travis Kelce◄
0.32 EPA/tgt
Brock Bowers
0.22 EPA/tgt
Average◄
7.4% sack rate
Bad
11.1% sack rate
Khyiris Tonga
0.1 disrupt/gm
Adam Butler◄
0.3 disrupt/gm
George Karlaftis
0.8 press/gm
Jonah Laulu
no 2025 data
Drue Tranquill
0.7 impact/gm
Quay Walker◄
0.9 impact/gm
L'Jarius Sneed
0.2 cover/gm
Eric Stokes◄
0.2 cover/gm
Alohi Gilman◄
0.5 cover/gm
Jeremy Chinn
0.3 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
BAL
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
LAC
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Lamar Jackson◄
0.04 EPA/att
Justin Herbert
0.02 EPA/att
Derrick Henry◄
0.02 EPA/tch
Omarion Hampton
-0.01 EPA/tch
Zay Flowers◄
0.32 EPA/tgt
Ladd McConkey
0.05 EPA/tgt
Mark Andrews
0.02 EPA/tgt
Charlie Kolar◄
0.15 EPA/tgt
Good◄
9.6% sack rate
Bad
9.5% sack rate
Travis Jones◄
0.7 disrupt/gm
Dalvin Tomlinson
no 2025 data
Calais Campbell
0.7 press/gm
Teair Tart◄
no 2025 data
Roquan Smith
0.7 impact/gm
Daiyan Henley◄
0.8 impact/gm
Nate Wiggins◄
0.7 cover/gm
Cam Hart
0.5 cover/gm
Malaki Starks
0.5 cover/gm
Derwin James Jr.◄
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
SF
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
SEA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Brock Purdy◄
0.13 EPA/att
Sam Darnold
0.11 EPA/att
Christian McCaffrey◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Brady Russell
-0.01 EPA/tch
Mike Evans
0.06 EPA/tgt
Jaxon Smith-Njigba◄
0.47 EPA/tgt
George Kittle◄
0.53 EPA/tgt
AJ Barner
0.32 EPA/tgt
Average
4.5% sack rate
Average◄
5.3% sack rate
Osa Odighizuwa
0.8 disrupt/gm
Byron Murphy II◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Keion White
0.2 press/gm
Leonard Williams◄
0.8 press/gm
Luke Gifford
0.1 impact/gm
DeMarcus Lawrence◄
0.8 impact/gm
Deommodore Lenoir
0.3 cover/gm
Josh Jobe◄
0.6 cover/gm
Ji'Ayir Brown◄
0.5 cover/gm
Ty Okada
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
NO
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
ATL
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Tyler Shough
0.00 EPA/att
Michael Penix Jr.◄
0.01 EPA/att
Travis Etienne Jr.
-0.03 EPA/tch
Bijan Robinson◄
0.03 EPA/tch
Chris Olave◄
0.19 EPA/tgt
Drake London
0.18 EPA/tgt
Juwan Johnson◄
0.29 EPA/tgt
Kyle Pitts Sr.
0.18 EPA/tgt
Bad
7.7% sack rate
Elite◄
4.6% sack rate
Davon Godchaux
0.1 disrupt/gm
Gervon Dexter Sr.◄
0.7 disrupt/gm
Colby Wooden
0.2 press/gm
Brandon Dorlus◄
0.8 press/gm
Kaden Elliss◄
1.0 impact/gm
Divine Deablo
0.7 impact/gm
Kool-Aid McKinstry◄
0.9 cover/gm
A.J. Terrell Jr.
0.5 cover/gm
Justin Reid
0.5 cover/gm
Jessie Bates III◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
CLE
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
DEN
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
Deshaun Watson
no 2025 data
Bo Nix◄
0.08 EPA/att
Quinshon Judkins
-0.10 EPA/tch
J.K. Dobbins◄
-0.00 EPA/tch
Jerry Jeudy
-0.24 EPA/tgt
Jaylen Waddle◄
0.27 EPA/tgt
Harold Fannin Jr.
0.01 EPA/tgt
Evan Engram◄
0.04 EPA/tgt
Bad
8.4% sack rate
Elite◄
3.6% sack rate
Mason Graham
0.4 disrupt/gm
D.J. Jones◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Jared Verse
0.9 press/gm
Zach Allen◄
1.1 press/gm
Carson Schwesinger
0.9 impact/gm
Nik Bonitto◄
1.2 impact/gm
Tyson Campbell
0.7 cover/gm
Riley Moss◄
0.8 cover/gm
Grant Delpit
0.4 cover/gm
Talanoa Hufanga◄
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
LA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
ARI
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Matthew Stafford◄
0.19 EPA/att
Jacoby Brissett
-0.00 EPA/att
Kyren Williams◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Jeremiyah Love
no 2025 data
Puka Nacua◄
0.59 EPA/tgt
Marvin Harrison Jr.
0.31 EPA/tgt
Colby Parkinson
0.17 EPA/tgt
Trey McBride◄
0.39 EPA/tgt
Elite◄
3.7% sack rate
Bad
8.3% sack rate
Poona Ford
0.3 disrupt/gm
Roy Lopez◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Kobie Turner
0.6 press/gm
Josh Sweat◄
no 2025 data
Byron Young◄
1.1 impact/gm
Jack Gibbens
0.7 impact/gm
Jaylen Watson
0.4 cover/gm
Denzel Burke◄
0.7 cover/gm
Kamren Kinchens◄
0.6 cover/gm
Budda Baker
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
NE
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
NYG
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Drake Maye◄
0.25 EPA/att
Jaxson Dart
0.01 EPA/att
Rhamondre Stevenson◄
-0.02 EPA/tch
Cam Skattebo
-0.05 EPA/tch
Romeo Doubs◄
0.30 EPA/tgt
Malik Nabers
0.04 EPA/tgt
Hunter Henry◄
0.36 EPA/tgt
Isaiah Likely
0.10 EPA/tgt
Average◄
8.7% sack rate
Bad
8.4% sack rate
Cory Durden◄
0.2 disrupt/gm
DJ Reader
0.1 disrupt/gm
Christian Barmore◄
no 2025 data
Shelby Harris
0.2 press/gm
Dre'Mont Jones
0.6 impact/gm
Brian Burns◄
1.8 impact/gm
Carlton Davis III
0.4 cover/gm
Dru Phillips◄
0.6 cover/gm
Craig Woodson
0.3 cover/gm
Tyler Nubin◄
0.3 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
BUF
OFF Run-heavy · under-center
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
PHI
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · four-man rush
Josh Allen◄
0.11 EPA/att
Jalen Hurts
0.05 EPA/att
James Cook III◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Saquon Barkley
-0.08 EPA/tch
DJ Moore
0.12 EPA/tgt
DeVonta Smith◄
0.38 EPA/tgt
Dalton Kincaid◄
0.58 EPA/tgt
Dallas Goedert
0.36 EPA/tgt
Good◄
7.5% sack rate
Average
6.6% sack rate
Deone Walker◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Average
no data
T.J. Sanders
no 2025 data
Jalen Carter
no 2025 data
Greg Rousseau
0.7 impact/gm
Zack Baun◄
1.0 impact/gm
Dee Alford◄
0.8 cover/gm
Quinyon Mitchell
0.7 cover/gm
Cole Bishop◄
0.7 cover/gm
Andrew Mukuba
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
Winner accuracy by grade, 1070 games. A high grade means a clearer mismatch — but the books know it too, so higher accuracy here does not mean a betting edge.
All validated trends · out-of-sample (2020–2026)
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