We simulate every NFL game on opponent-adjusted net EPA — offense and defense on both sides set the projected margin, scoring rates set the total — then post only the handful we have the most conviction in. Every posted game gets a grade and a projected score, and every one is graded against the real result.
Graded games
75.9%
the games we post · B+ or better
Full slate
62.5%
every game · n=1070
Market
67.4%
closing line · it’s better
Margin error
10.5
points, full slate
Accuracy is measured against the actual final score — did we pick the winner, and how many points off was the margin — not against the betting line. Across 2019–2025 the simulator calls 62.5% of all games straight up. The market’s closing line calls 67.4% — the NFL is the most efficient market in sports, so the full slate is worse than the market and we say so. It is a prediction tool, not a betting edge: it does not beat the spread. Analysis and entertainment, 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.
Board went 5-0 · full slate 11-3 straight up
Our 5 highest-conviction calls out of 14 games this week. We post at most 6, and nothing below a B+ — a thin week posts fewer rather than padding the board.
NYJ
BUF
15
25
Offense
BUF
Defense
NYJ
Called it ✓
NYJ
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
Every game we simulated this week, highest conviction first. The board above is only the ones that cleared B+— here’s the whole week so nothing’s hidden.
NYJ
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
BUF
OFF Run-heavy · under-center
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Geno Smith
-0.12 EPA/att
Josh Allen◄
The grade is our conviction in our own call — how big the projected margin is. Here is how each grade actually performed across 2019–2025:
Net EPA — opponent-adjusted expected points added on offense and defense, both sides of the ball — sets the projected margin. Scoring rates set the total. Ratings are computed as of that week’s kickoff, using only games already played, so nothing is graded with hindsight. Early in the season a team carries its prior-year rating until it has enough games to stand on its own.
It does not beat the spread. The NFL market is the sharpest in sports. We publish this because the projection and the matchup are interesting and we grade ourselves honestly against the real score — not because it prints money.
Also on our board
Separate from the simulator: situational trends mined from 1999–2026 seasons and validated out-of-sample. Only the ones that actually hold up.
The Sizzlin NFL Simulator is analysis and entertainment — not betting advice or a guaranteed outcome. 21+. 1-800-GAMBLER.
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
BUF
OFF Run-heavy · under-center
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Geno Smith
-0.12 EPA/att
Josh Allen◄
0.11 EPA/att
Breece Hall
-0.04 EPA/tch
James Cook III◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Garrett Wilson
-0.02 EPA/tgt
DJ Moore◄
0.12 EPA/tgt
Mason Taylor
0.12 EPA/tgt
Dalton Kincaid◄
0.58 EPA/tgt
Bad
10.8% sack rate
Good◄
7.5% sack rate
Harrison Phillips
0.2 disrupt/gm
Deone Walker◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Will McDonald IV◄
0.9 press/gm
T.J. Sanders
no 2025 data
Jamien Sherwood◄
1.0 impact/gm
Greg Rousseau
0.7 impact/gm
Nahshon Wright◄
0.8 cover/gm
Dee Alford
0.8 cover/gm
Dane Belton
0.5 cover/gm
Cole Bishop◄
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
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0.11 EPA/att
Breece Hall
-0.04 EPA/tch
James Cook III◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Garrett Wilson
-0.02 EPA/tgt
DJ Moore◄
0.12 EPA/tgt
Mason Taylor
0.12 EPA/tgt
Dalton Kincaid◄
0.58 EPA/tgt
Bad
10.8% sack rate
Good◄
7.5% sack rate
Harrison Phillips
0.2 disrupt/gm
Deone Walker◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Will McDonald IV◄
0.9 press/gm
T.J. Sanders
no 2025 data
Jamien Sherwood◄
1.0 impact/gm
Greg Rousseau
0.7 impact/gm
Nahshon Wright◄
0.8 cover/gm
Dee Alford
0.8 cover/gm
Dane Belton
0.5 cover/gm
Cole Bishop◄
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
CIN
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
BAL
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Joe Burrow◄
0.08 EPA/att
Lamar Jackson
0.04 EPA/att
Chase Brown
-0.04 EPA/tch
Derrick Henry◄
0.02 EPA/tch
Ja'Marr Chase
0.19 EPA/tgt
Zay Flowers◄
0.32 EPA/tgt
Mike Gesicki◄
0.07 EPA/tgt
Mark Andrews
0.02 EPA/tgt
Good
5.3% sack rate
Good◄
9.6% sack rate
Dexter Lawrence II
0.3 disrupt/gm
Travis Jones◄
0.7 disrupt/gm
Boye Mafe
0.2 press/gm
Calais Campbell◄
0.7 press/gm
Demetrius Knight Jr.◄
0.8 impact/gm
Roquan Smith
0.7 impact/gm
Dax Hill
0.5 cover/gm
Nate Wiggins◄
0.7 cover/gm
Jordan Battle◄
0.7 cover/gm
Malaki Starks
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
ARI
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
HOU
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Jacoby Brissett
-0.00 EPA/att
C.J. Stroud◄
0.08 EPA/att
Jeremiyah Love
no 2025 data
David Montgomery◄
0.02 EPA/tch
Marvin Harrison Jr.◄
0.31 EPA/tgt
Nico Collins
0.26 EPA/tgt
Trey McBride◄
0.39 EPA/tgt
Dalton Schultz
0.29 EPA/tgt
Bad
8.3% sack rate
Average◄
5.1% sack rate
Roy Lopez
0.4 disrupt/gm
Tommy Togiai◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Josh Sweat
no 2025 data
Will Anderson Jr.◄
1.2 press/gm
Jack Gibbens
0.7 impact/gm
Henry To'oTo'o◄
0.8 impact/gm
Denzel Burke
0.7 cover/gm
Kamari Lassiter◄
1.0 cover/gm
Budda Baker◄
0.5 cover/gm
Reed Blankenship
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
TB
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
SF
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Baker Mayfield
0.00 EPA/att
Brock Purdy◄
0.13 EPA/att
Bucky Irving
-0.10 EPA/tch
Christian McCaffrey◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Emeka Egbuka
0.05 EPA/tgt
Mike Evans◄
0.06 EPA/tgt
Cade Otton
0.03 EPA/tgt
George Kittle◄
0.53 EPA/tgt
Average◄
6.4% sack rate
Average
4.5% sack rate
Vita Vea
0.8 disrupt/gm
Osa Odighizuwa◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Calijah Kancey◄
no 2025 data
Keion White
0.2 press/gm
Yaya Diaby◄
0.9 impact/gm
Luke Gifford
0.1 impact/gm
Jacob Parrish◄
0.4 cover/gm
Deommodore Lenoir
0.3 cover/gm
Antoine Winfield Jr.◄
0.6 cover/gm
Ji'Ayir Brown
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
LV
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
MIA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Kirk Cousins
-0.00 EPA/att
Malik Willis◄
0.13 EPA/att
Ashton Jeanty
-0.20 EPA/tch
De'Von Achane◄
0.01 EPA/tch
Tre Tucker◄
0.18 EPA/tgt
Malik Washington
-0.10 EPA/tgt
Brock Bowers
0.22 EPA/tgt
Greg Dulcich◄
0.34 EPA/tgt
Bad
11.1% sack rate
Good◄
7.4% sack rate
Adam Butler◄
0.3 disrupt/gm
Jordan Phillips
0.2 disrupt/gm
Jonah Laulu
no 2025 data
Chop Robinson
no 2025 data
Quay Walker
0.9 impact/gm
Jordyn Brooks◄
1.2 impact/gm
Eric Stokes
0.2 cover/gm
Jason Marshall Jr.◄
0.3 cover/gm
Jeremy Chinn◄
0.3 cover/gm
Dante Trader Jr.
0.2 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
CHI
OFF Balanced · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
DET
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
Caleb Williams
0.06 EPA/att
Jared Goff◄
0.14 EPA/att
D'Andre Swift◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Jahmyr Gibbs
0.04 EPA/tch
Rome Odunze
0.18 EPA/tgt
Amon-Ra St. Brown◄
0.28 EPA/tgt
Colston Loveland
0.47 EPA/tgt
Sam LaPorta◄
0.54 EPA/tgt
Elite◄
4.0% sack rate
Good
6.3% sack rate
Grady Jarrett◄
0.3 disrupt/gm
Tyleik Williams
0.2 disrupt/gm
Montez Sweat
0.9 press/gm
Aidan Hutchinson◄
1.3 press/gm
Devin Bush◄
0.9 impact/gm
Derrick Barnes
0.7 impact/gm
Cam Lewis
0.2 cover/gm
D.J. Reed◄
0.5 cover/gm
Xavier Woods◄
0.4 cover/gm
Chuck Clark
0.3 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
NYG
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
WAS
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Jaxson Dart◄
0.01 EPA/att
Jayden Daniels
-0.01 EPA/att
Cam Skattebo
-0.05 EPA/tch
Jacory Croskey-Merritt◄
-0.02 EPA/tch
Malik Nabers
0.04 EPA/tgt
Terry McLaurin◄
0.36 EPA/tgt
Isaiah Likely
0.10 EPA/tgt
Chig Okonkwo◄
0.13 EPA/tgt
Bad
8.4% sack rate
Good◄
7.3% sack rate
DJ Reader
0.1 disrupt/gm
Daron Payne◄
0.6 disrupt/gm
Shelby Harris
0.2 press/gm
Tim Settle◄
no 2025 data
Brian Burns◄
1.8 impact/gm
Odafe Oweh
0.7 impact/gm
Dru Phillips
0.6 cover/gm
Mike Sainristil◄
0.7 cover/gm
Tyler Nubin
0.3 cover/gm
Nick Cross◄
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
DAL
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
CAR
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Dak Prescott◄
0.15 EPA/att
Bryce Young
-0.03 EPA/att
Javonte Williams◄
-0.03 EPA/tch
Chuba Hubbard
-0.05 EPA/tch
CeeDee Lamb◄
0.20 EPA/tgt
Tetairoa McMillan
0.17 EPA/tgt
Jake Ferguson◄
0.16 EPA/tgt
Tommy Tremble
0.15 EPA/tgt
Elite◄
4.7% sack rate
Average
6.4% sack rate
Otito Ogbonnia
0.3 disrupt/gm
Lee Hunter◄
no 2025 data
Quinnen Williams
no 2025 data
Derrick Brown
no 2025 data
Dee Winters◄
0.8 impact/gm
Bobby Okereke
0.7 impact/gm
Cobie Durant
0.5 cover/gm
Mike Jackson◄
1.0 cover/gm
Malik Hooker
0.2 cover/gm
Nick Scott◄
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
PIT
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
CLE
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Aaron Rodgers
0.04 EPA/att
Deshaun Watson◄
no 2025 data
Jaylen Warren◄
0.03 EPA/tch
Quinshon Judkins
-0.10 EPA/tch
DK Metcalf◄
0.26 EPA/tgt
Jerry Jeudy
-0.24 EPA/tgt
Darnell Washington◄
0.24 EPA/tgt
Harold Fannin Jr.
0.01 EPA/tgt
Good◄
5.3% sack rate
Bad
8.4% sack rate
Keeanu Benton◄
0.6 disrupt/gm
Mason Graham
0.4 disrupt/gm
Cameron Heyward
0.4 press/gm
Jared Verse◄
0.9 press/gm
Payton Wilson
0.7 impact/gm
Carson Schwesinger◄
0.9 impact/gm
Jalen Ramsey
0.4 cover/gm
Tyson Campbell◄
0.7 cover/gm
Jaquan Brisker◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grant Delpit
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
TEN
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
JAX
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Cam Ward
-0.15 EPA/att
Trevor Lawrence◄
0.05 EPA/att
Tony Pollard
-0.10 EPA/tch
Bhayshul Tuten◄
-0.03 EPA/tch
Carnell Tate◄
no 2025 data
Brian Thomas Jr.
0.14 EPA/tgt
Gunnar Helm
0.05 EPA/tgt
Brenton Strange◄
0.40 EPA/tgt
Bad
8.9% sack rate
Bad◄
6.8% sack rate
Jeffery Simmons◄
1.5 disrupt/gm
DaVon Hamilton
0.2 disrupt/gm
Jermaine Johnson II
0.3 press/gm
Josh Hines-Allen◄
1.0 press/gm
Cody Barton
0.7 impact/gm
Foyesade Oluokun◄
0.9 impact/gm
Alontae Taylor
0.6 cover/gm
Montaric Brown◄
0.7 cover/gm
Amani Hooker
0.5 cover/gm
Antonio Johnson◄
0.8 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
PHI
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · four-man rush
KC
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Jalen Hurts
0.05 EPA/att
Patrick Mahomes◄
0.10 EPA/att
Saquon Barkley
-0.08 EPA/tch
Kenneth Walker III◄
-0.02 EPA/tch
DeVonta Smith◄
0.38 EPA/tgt
Rashee Rice
0.15 EPA/tgt
Dallas Goedert◄
0.36 EPA/tgt
Travis Kelce
0.32 EPA/tgt
Average◄
6.6% sack rate
Average
7.4% sack rate
Average◄
no data
Khyiris Tonga
0.1 disrupt/gm
Jalen Carter
no 2025 data
George Karlaftis
0.8 press/gm
Zack Baun◄
1.0 impact/gm
Drue Tranquill
0.7 impact/gm
Quinyon Mitchell◄
0.7 cover/gm
L'Jarius Sneed
0.2 cover/gm
Andrew Mukuba
0.4 cover/gm
Alohi Gilman◄
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
LAC
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
GB
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Justin Herbert
0.02 EPA/att
Jordan Love◄
0.18 EPA/att
Omarion Hampton◄
-0.01 EPA/tch
MarShawn Lloyd
no 2025 data
Ladd McConkey
0.05 EPA/tgt
Christian Watson◄
0.38 EPA/tgt
Charlie Kolar
0.15 EPA/tgt
Tucker Kraft◄
0.62 EPA/tgt
Bad
9.5% sack rate
Average◄
5.6% sack rate
Dalvin Tomlinson
no 2025 data
Javon Hargrave◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Teair Tart
no 2025 data
Karl Brooks
no 2025 data
Daiyan Henley◄
0.8 impact/gm
Edgerrin Cooper
0.6 impact/gm
Cam Hart
0.5 cover/gm
Keisean Nixon◄
0.7 cover/gm
Derwin James Jr.◄
0.7 cover/gm
Evan Williams
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
MIN
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
DEN
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
Kyler Murray
0.02 EPA/att
Bo Nix◄
0.08 EPA/att
Aaron Jones Sr.
-0.04 EPA/tch
J.K. Dobbins◄
-0.00 EPA/tch
Justin Jefferson
-0.08 EPA/tgt
Jaylen Waddle◄
0.27 EPA/tgt
T.J. Hockenson◄
0.17 EPA/tgt
Evan Engram
0.04 EPA/tgt
Bad
11.0% sack rate
Elite◄
3.6% sack rate
Caleb Banks
no 2025 data
D.J. Jones◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Levi Drake Rodriguez
no 2025 data
Zach Allen◄
1.1 press/gm
Eric Wilson
1.1 impact/gm
Nik Bonitto◄
1.2 impact/gm
Byron Murphy Jr.
0.4 cover/gm
Riley Moss◄
0.8 cover/gm
Joshua Metellus
0.6 cover/gm
Talanoa Hufanga◄
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
SEA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
LA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Sam Darnold
0.11 EPA/att
Matthew Stafford◄
0.19 EPA/att
Brady Russell
-0.01 EPA/tch
Kyren Williams◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Jaxon Smith-Njigba
0.47 EPA/tgt
Puka Nacua◄
0.59 EPA/tgt
AJ Barner◄
0.32 EPA/tgt
Colby Parkinson
0.17 EPA/tgt
Average
5.3% sack rate
Elite◄
3.7% sack rate
Byron Murphy II◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Poona Ford
0.3 disrupt/gm
Leonard Williams◄
0.8 press/gm
Kobie Turner
0.6 press/gm
DeMarcus Lawrence
0.8 impact/gm
Byron Young◄
1.1 impact/gm
Josh Jobe◄
0.6 cover/gm
Jaylen Watson
0.4 cover/gm
Ty Okada
0.5 cover/gm
Kamren Kinchens◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
Winner accuracy by grade, 1070 games. A high grade means a clearer mismatch — but the books know it too, so higher accuracy here does not mean a betting edge.
All validated trends · out-of-sample (2020–2026)
NFL · Members
The full board, confidence ratings, and daily plays — plus the complete track record. New plays every morning. The track record and featured picks above stay free.
NFL Pass
$9.99/mo
Just NFL
All-AccessBest value
$29.99/mo
All 5 sports
Secure checkout via Stripe. Cancel anytime. 21+. Bet responsibly.
