We simulate every NFL game on opponent-adjusted net EPA — offense and defense on both sides set the projected margin, scoring rates set the total — then post only the handful we have the most conviction in. Every posted game gets a grade and a projected score, and every one is graded against the real result.
Graded games
75.9%
the games we post · B+ or better
Full slate
62.5%
every game · n=1070
Market
67.4%
closing line · it’s better
Margin error
10.5
points, full slate
Accuracy is measured against the actual final score — did we pick the winner, and how many points off was the margin — not against the betting line. Across 2019–2025 the simulator calls 62.5% of all games straight up. The market’s closing line calls 67.4% — the NFL is the most efficient market in sports, so the full slate is worse than the market and we say so. It is a prediction tool, not a betting edge: it does not beat the spread. Analysis and entertainment, 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.
Board went 1-2 · full slate 9-5 straight up
Our 3 highest-conviction calls out of 14 games this week. We post at most 6, and nothing below a B+ — a thin week posts fewer rather than padding the board.
NYG
DAL
15
26
Offense
DAL
Defense
DAL
Called it ✓
NYG
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
DAL
Pass-heavy · mixed sets
Every game we simulated this week, highest conviction first. The board above is only the ones that cleared B+— here’s the whole week so nothing’s hidden.
NYG
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
DAL
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Jaxson Dart
0.01 EPA/att
Dak Prescott
The grade is our conviction in our own call — how big the projected margin is. Here is how each grade actually performed across 2019–2025:
Net EPA — opponent-adjusted expected points added on offense and defense, both sides of the ball — sets the projected margin. Scoring rates set the total. Ratings are computed as of that week’s kickoff, using only games already played, so nothing is graded with hindsight. Early in the season a team carries its prior-year rating until it has enough games to stand on its own.
It does not beat the spread. The NFL market is the sharpest in sports. We publish this because the projection and the matchup are interesting and we grade ourselves honestly against the real score — not because it prints money.
Also on our board
Separate from the simulator: situational trends mined from 1999–2026 seasons and validated out-of-sample. Only the ones that actually hold up.
The Sizzlin NFL Simulator is analysis and entertainment — not betting advice or a guaranteed outcome. 21+. 1-800-GAMBLER.
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Jaxson Dart
0.01 EPA/att
Dak Prescott◄
0.15 EPA/att
Cam Skattebo
-0.05 EPA/tch
Javonte Williams◄
-0.03 EPA/tch
Malik Nabers
0.04 EPA/tgt
CeeDee Lamb◄
0.20 EPA/tgt
Isaiah Likely
0.10 EPA/tgt
Jake Ferguson◄
0.16 EPA/tgt
Bad
8.4% sack rate
Elite◄
4.7% sack rate
DJ Reader
0.1 disrupt/gm
Otito Ogbonnia◄
0.3 disrupt/gm
Shelby Harris
0.2 press/gm
Quinnen Williams◄
no 2025 data
Brian Burns◄
1.8 impact/gm
Dee Winters
0.8 impact/gm
Dru Phillips◄
0.6 cover/gm
Cobie Durant
0.5 cover/gm
Tyler Nubin◄
0.3 cover/gm
Malik Hooker
0.2 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
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0.15 EPA/att
Cam Skattebo
-0.05 EPA/tch
Javonte Williams◄
-0.03 EPA/tch
Malik Nabers
0.04 EPA/tgt
CeeDee Lamb◄
0.20 EPA/tgt
Isaiah Likely
0.10 EPA/tgt
Jake Ferguson◄
0.16 EPA/tgt
Bad
8.4% sack rate
Elite◄
4.7% sack rate
DJ Reader
0.1 disrupt/gm
Otito Ogbonnia◄
0.3 disrupt/gm
Shelby Harris
0.2 press/gm
Quinnen Williams◄
no 2025 data
Brian Burns◄
1.8 impact/gm
Dee Winters
0.8 impact/gm
Dru Phillips◄
0.6 cover/gm
Cobie Durant
0.5 cover/gm
Tyler Nubin◄
0.3 cover/gm
Malik Hooker
0.2 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
DEN
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
BUF
OFF Run-heavy · under-center
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Bo Nix
0.08 EPA/att
Josh Allen◄
0.11 EPA/att
J.K. Dobbins
-0.00 EPA/tch
James Cook III◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Jaylen Waddle◄
0.27 EPA/tgt
DJ Moore
0.12 EPA/tgt
Evan Engram
0.04 EPA/tgt
Dalton Kincaid◄
0.58 EPA/tgt
Elite◄
3.6% sack rate
Good
7.5% sack rate
D.J. Jones
0.4 disrupt/gm
Deone Walker◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Zach Allen◄
1.1 press/gm
T.J. Sanders
no 2025 data
Nik Bonitto◄
1.2 impact/gm
Greg Rousseau
0.7 impact/gm
Riley Moss◄
0.8 cover/gm
Dee Alford
0.8 cover/gm
Talanoa Hufanga
0.7 cover/gm
Cole Bishop◄
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
CLE
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
BAL
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Deshaun Watson◄
no 2025 data
Lamar Jackson
0.04 EPA/att
Quinshon Judkins
-0.10 EPA/tch
Derrick Henry◄
0.02 EPA/tch
Jerry Jeudy
-0.24 EPA/tgt
Zay Flowers◄
0.32 EPA/tgt
Harold Fannin Jr.
0.01 EPA/tgt
Mark Andrews◄
0.02 EPA/tgt
Bad
8.4% sack rate
Good◄
9.6% sack rate
Mason Graham
0.4 disrupt/gm
Travis Jones◄
0.7 disrupt/gm
Jared Verse◄
0.9 press/gm
Calais Campbell
0.7 press/gm
Carson Schwesinger◄
0.9 impact/gm
Roquan Smith
0.7 impact/gm
Tyson Campbell
0.7 cover/gm
Nate Wiggins
0.7 cover/gm
Grant Delpit
0.4 cover/gm
Malaki Starks◄
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
CAR
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
CHI
OFF Balanced · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
Bryce Young
-0.03 EPA/att
Caleb Williams◄
0.06 EPA/att
Chuba Hubbard
-0.05 EPA/tch
D'Andre Swift◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Tetairoa McMillan
0.17 EPA/tgt
Rome Odunze◄
0.18 EPA/tgt
Tommy Tremble
0.15 EPA/tgt
Colston Loveland◄
0.47 EPA/tgt
Average
6.4% sack rate
Elite◄
4.0% sack rate
Lee Hunter◄
no 2025 data
Grady Jarrett
0.3 disrupt/gm
Derrick Brown
no 2025 data
Montez Sweat◄
0.9 press/gm
Bobby Okereke
0.7 impact/gm
Devin Bush◄
0.9 impact/gm
Mike Jackson◄
1.0 cover/gm
Cam Lewis
0.2 cover/gm
Nick Scott
0.4 cover/gm
Xavier Woods◄
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
WAS
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
SEA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Jayden Daniels
-0.01 EPA/att
Sam Darnold◄
0.11 EPA/att
Jacory Croskey-Merritt
-0.02 EPA/tch
Brady Russell◄
-0.01 EPA/tch
Terry McLaurin
0.36 EPA/tgt
Jaxon Smith-Njigba◄
0.47 EPA/tgt
Chig Okonkwo
0.13 EPA/tgt
AJ Barner◄
0.32 EPA/tgt
Good◄
7.3% sack rate
Average
5.3% sack rate
Daron Payne
0.6 disrupt/gm
Byron Murphy II◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Tim Settle
no 2025 data
Leonard Williams
0.8 press/gm
Odafe Oweh
0.7 impact/gm
DeMarcus Lawrence◄
0.8 impact/gm
Mike Sainristil◄
0.7 cover/gm
Josh Jobe
0.6 cover/gm
Nick Cross◄
0.5 cover/gm
Ty Okada
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
NO
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
MIN
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Tyler Shough
0.00 EPA/att
Kyler Murray◄
0.02 EPA/att
Travis Etienne Jr.◄
-0.03 EPA/tch
Aaron Jones Sr.
-0.04 EPA/tch
Chris Olave◄
0.19 EPA/tgt
Justin Jefferson
-0.08 EPA/tgt
Juwan Johnson◄
0.29 EPA/tgt
T.J. Hockenson
0.17 EPA/tgt
Bad
7.7% sack rate
Bad◄
11.0% sack rate
Davon Godchaux
0.1 disrupt/gm
Caleb Banks◄
no 2025 data
Colby Wooden
0.2 press/gm
Levi Drake Rodriguez◄
no 2025 data
Kaden Elliss
1.0 impact/gm
Eric Wilson◄
1.1 impact/gm
Kool-Aid McKinstry◄
0.9 cover/gm
Byron Murphy Jr.
0.4 cover/gm
Justin Reid
0.5 cover/gm
Joshua Metellus◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
TEN
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
TB
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Cam Ward
-0.15 EPA/att
Baker Mayfield◄
0.00 EPA/att
Tony Pollard◄
-0.10 EPA/tch
Bucky Irving
-0.10 EPA/tch
Carnell Tate◄
no 2025 data
Emeka Egbuka
0.05 EPA/tgt
Gunnar Helm◄
0.05 EPA/tgt
Cade Otton
0.03 EPA/tgt
Bad
8.9% sack rate
Average◄
6.4% sack rate
Jeffery Simmons◄
1.5 disrupt/gm
Vita Vea
0.8 disrupt/gm
Jermaine Johnson II
0.3 press/gm
Calijah Kancey◄
no 2025 data
Cody Barton
0.7 impact/gm
Yaya Diaby◄
0.9 impact/gm
Alontae Taylor◄
0.6 cover/gm
Jacob Parrish
0.4 cover/gm
Amani Hooker
0.5 cover/gm
Antoine Winfield Jr.◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
NYJ
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
LV
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Geno Smith
-0.12 EPA/att
Kirk Cousins◄
-0.00 EPA/att
Breece Hall◄
-0.04 EPA/tch
Ashton Jeanty
-0.20 EPA/tch
Garrett Wilson
-0.02 EPA/tgt
Tre Tucker◄
0.18 EPA/tgt
Mason Taylor
0.12 EPA/tgt
Brock Bowers◄
0.22 EPA/tgt
Bad◄
10.8% sack rate
Bad
11.1% sack rate
Harrison Phillips
0.2 disrupt/gm
Adam Butler◄
0.3 disrupt/gm
Will McDonald IV◄
0.9 press/gm
Jonah Laulu
no 2025 data
Jamien Sherwood◄
1.0 impact/gm
Quay Walker
0.9 impact/gm
Nahshon Wright◄
0.8 cover/gm
Eric Stokes
0.2 cover/gm
Dane Belton◄
0.5 cover/gm
Jeremy Chinn
0.3 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
IND
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
NE
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Daniel Jones
0.11 EPA/att
Drake Maye◄
0.25 EPA/att
Jonathan Taylor◄
0.07 EPA/tch
Rhamondre Stevenson
-0.02 EPA/tch
Alec Pierce◄
0.49 EPA/tgt
Romeo Doubs
0.30 EPA/tgt
Tyler Warren
0.12 EPA/tgt
Hunter Henry◄
0.36 EPA/tgt
Good◄
5.0% sack rate
Average
8.7% sack rate
Grover Stewart◄
0.3 disrupt/gm
Cory Durden
0.2 disrupt/gm
Laiatu Latu◄
0.9 press/gm
Christian Barmore
no 2025 data
Akeem Davis-Gaither
0.5 impact/gm
Dre'Mont Jones◄
0.6 impact/gm
Sauce Gardner◄
0.5 cover/gm
Carlton Davis III
0.4 cover/gm
Cam Bynum◄
0.7 cover/gm
Craig Woodson
0.3 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
HOU
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
CIN
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
C.J. Stroud
0.08 EPA/att
Joe Burrow◄
0.08 EPA/att
David Montgomery◄
0.02 EPA/tch
Chase Brown
-0.04 EPA/tch
Nico Collins◄
0.26 EPA/tgt
Ja'Marr Chase
0.19 EPA/tgt
Dalton Schultz◄
0.29 EPA/tgt
Mike Gesicki
0.07 EPA/tgt
Average
5.1% sack rate
Good◄
5.3% sack rate
Tommy Togiai◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Dexter Lawrence II
0.3 disrupt/gm
Will Anderson Jr.◄
1.2 press/gm
Boye Mafe
0.2 press/gm
Henry To'oTo'o
0.8 impact/gm
Demetrius Knight Jr.◄
0.8 impact/gm
Kamari Lassiter◄
1.0 cover/gm
Dax Hill
0.5 cover/gm
Reed Blankenship
0.4 cover/gm
Jordan Battle◄
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
DET
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
LAC
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Jared Goff◄
0.14 EPA/att
Justin Herbert
0.02 EPA/att
Jahmyr Gibbs◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Omarion Hampton
-0.01 EPA/tch
Amon-Ra St. Brown◄
0.28 EPA/tgt
Ladd McConkey
0.05 EPA/tgt
Sam LaPorta◄
0.54 EPA/tgt
Charlie Kolar
0.15 EPA/tgt
Good◄
6.3% sack rate
Bad
9.5% sack rate
Tyleik Williams
0.2 disrupt/gm
Dalvin Tomlinson◄
no 2025 data
Aidan Hutchinson◄
1.3 press/gm
Teair Tart
no 2025 data
Derrick Barnes
0.7 impact/gm
Daiyan Henley◄
0.8 impact/gm
D.J. Reed◄
0.5 cover/gm
Cam Hart
0.5 cover/gm
Chuck Clark
0.3 cover/gm
Derwin James Jr.◄
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
ATL
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
ARI
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Michael Penix Jr.◄
0.01 EPA/att
Jacoby Brissett
-0.00 EPA/att
Bijan Robinson◄
0.03 EPA/tch
Jeremiyah Love
no 2025 data
Drake London
0.18 EPA/tgt
Marvin Harrison Jr.◄
0.31 EPA/tgt
Kyle Pitts Sr.
0.18 EPA/tgt
Trey McBride◄
0.39 EPA/tgt
Elite◄
4.6% sack rate
Bad
8.3% sack rate
Gervon Dexter Sr.◄
0.7 disrupt/gm
Roy Lopez
0.4 disrupt/gm
Brandon Dorlus
0.8 press/gm
Josh Sweat◄
no 2025 data
Divine Deablo◄
0.7 impact/gm
Jack Gibbens
0.7 impact/gm
A.J. Terrell Jr.
0.5 cover/gm
Denzel Burke◄
0.7 cover/gm
Jessie Bates III◄
0.6 cover/gm
Budda Baker
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
SF
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
JAX
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Brock Purdy◄
0.13 EPA/att
Trevor Lawrence
0.05 EPA/att
Christian McCaffrey◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Bhayshul Tuten
-0.03 EPA/tch
Mike Evans
0.06 EPA/tgt
Brian Thomas Jr.◄
0.14 EPA/tgt
George Kittle◄
0.53 EPA/tgt
Brenton Strange
0.40 EPA/tgt
Average◄
4.5% sack rate
Bad
6.8% sack rate
Osa Odighizuwa◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
DaVon Hamilton
0.2 disrupt/gm
Keion White
0.2 press/gm
Josh Hines-Allen◄
1.0 press/gm
Luke Gifford
0.1 impact/gm
Foyesade Oluokun◄
0.9 impact/gm
Deommodore Lenoir
0.3 cover/gm
Montaric Brown◄
0.7 cover/gm
Ji'Ayir Brown
0.5 cover/gm
Antonio Johnson◄
0.8 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
GB
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
PIT
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Jordan Love◄
0.18 EPA/att
Aaron Rodgers
0.04 EPA/att
MarShawn Lloyd
no 2025 data
Jaylen Warren◄
0.03 EPA/tch
Christian Watson◄
0.38 EPA/tgt
DK Metcalf
0.26 EPA/tgt
Tucker Kraft◄
0.62 EPA/tgt
Darnell Washington
0.24 EPA/tgt
Average
5.6% sack rate
Good◄
5.3% sack rate
Javon Hargrave
0.4 disrupt/gm
Keeanu Benton◄
0.6 disrupt/gm
Karl Brooks◄
no 2025 data
Cameron Heyward
0.4 press/gm
Edgerrin Cooper
0.6 impact/gm
Payton Wilson◄
0.7 impact/gm
Keisean Nixon◄
0.7 cover/gm
Jalen Ramsey
0.4 cover/gm
Evan Williams◄
0.6 cover/gm
Jaquan Brisker
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
Winner accuracy by grade, 1070 games. A high grade means a clearer mismatch — but the books know it too, so higher accuracy here does not mean a betting edge.
All validated trends · out-of-sample (2020–2026)
NFL · Members
The full board, confidence ratings, and daily plays — plus the complete track record. New plays every morning. The track record and featured picks above stay free.
NFL Pass
$9.99/mo
Just NFL
All-AccessBest value
$29.99/mo
All 5 sports
Secure checkout via Stripe. Cancel anytime. 21+. Bet responsibly.
