We simulate every NFL game on opponent-adjusted net EPA — offense and defense on both sides set the projected margin, scoring rates set the total — then post only the handful we have the most conviction in. Every posted game gets a grade and a projected score, and every one is graded against the real result.
Graded games
75.9%
the games we post · B+ or better
Full slate
62.5%
every game · n=1070
Market
67.4%
closing line · it’s better
Margin error
10.5
points, full slate
Accuracy is measured against the actual final score — did we pick the winner, and how many points off was the margin — not against the betting line. Across 2019–2025 the simulator calls 62.5% of all games straight up. The market’s closing line calls 67.4% — the NFL is the most efficient market in sports, so the full slate is worse than the market and we say so. It is a prediction tool, not a betting edge: it does not beat the spread. Analysis and entertainment, 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.
Board went 0-1 · full slate 9-7 straight up
Our 1 highest-conviction calls out of 16 games this week. We post at most 6, and nothing below a B+ — a thin week posts fewer rather than padding the board.
DET
KC
21
30
Offense
KC
Defense
KC
Missed the winner
DET
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
KC
Pass-heavy · shotgun spread · heavy personnel
Every game we simulated this week, highest conviction first. The board above is only the ones that cleared B+— here’s the whole week so nothing’s hidden.
DET
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
KC
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Jared Goff◄
0.14 EPA/att
The grade is our conviction in our own call — how big the projected margin is. Here is how each grade actually performed across 2019–2025:
Net EPA — opponent-adjusted expected points added on offense and defense, both sides of the ball — sets the projected margin. Scoring rates set the total. Ratings are computed as of that week’s kickoff, using only games already played, so nothing is graded with hindsight. Early in the season a team carries its prior-year rating until it has enough games to stand on its own.
It does not beat the spread. The NFL market is the sharpest in sports. We publish this because the projection and the matchup are interesting and we grade ourselves honestly against the real score — not because it prints money.
Also on our board
Separate from the simulator: situational trends mined from 1999–2026 seasons and validated out-of-sample. Only the ones that actually hold up.
The Sizzlin NFL Simulator is analysis and entertainment — not betting advice or a guaranteed outcome. 21+. 1-800-GAMBLER.
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Jared Goff◄
0.14 EPA/att
Patrick Mahomes
0.10 EPA/att
Jahmyr Gibbs◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Kenneth Walker III
-0.02 EPA/tch
Amon-Ra St. Brown◄
0.28 EPA/tgt
Rashee Rice
0.15 EPA/tgt
Sam LaPorta◄
0.54 EPA/tgt
Travis Kelce
0.32 EPA/tgt
Good◄
6.3% sack rate
Average
7.4% sack rate
Tyleik Williams◄
0.2 disrupt/gm
Khyiris Tonga
0.1 disrupt/gm
Aidan Hutchinson◄
1.3 press/gm
George Karlaftis
0.8 press/gm
Derrick Barnes
0.7 impact/gm
Drue Tranquill◄
0.7 impact/gm
D.J. Reed◄
0.5 cover/gm
L'Jarius Sneed
0.2 cover/gm
Chuck Clark
0.3 cover/gm
Alohi Gilman◄
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
Patrick Mahomes
0.10 EPA/att
Jahmyr Gibbs◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Kenneth Walker III
-0.02 EPA/tch
Amon-Ra St. Brown◄
0.28 EPA/tgt
Rashee Rice
0.15 EPA/tgt
Sam LaPorta◄
0.54 EPA/tgt
Travis Kelce
0.32 EPA/tgt
Good◄
6.3% sack rate
Average
7.4% sack rate
Tyleik Williams◄
0.2 disrupt/gm
Khyiris Tonga
0.1 disrupt/gm
Aidan Hutchinson◄
1.3 press/gm
George Karlaftis
0.8 press/gm
Derrick Barnes
0.7 impact/gm
Drue Tranquill◄
0.7 impact/gm
D.J. Reed◄
0.5 cover/gm
L'Jarius Sneed
0.2 cover/gm
Chuck Clark
0.3 cover/gm
Alohi Gilman◄
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
HOU
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
BAL
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
C.J. Stroud◄
0.08 EPA/att
Lamar Jackson
0.04 EPA/att
David Montgomery
0.02 EPA/tch
Derrick Henry◄
0.02 EPA/tch
Nico Collins
0.26 EPA/tgt
Zay Flowers◄
0.32 EPA/tgt
Dalton Schultz◄
0.29 EPA/tgt
Mark Andrews
0.02 EPA/tgt
Average
5.1% sack rate
Good◄
9.6% sack rate
Tommy Togiai
0.4 disrupt/gm
Travis Jones◄
0.7 disrupt/gm
Will Anderson Jr.◄
1.2 press/gm
Calais Campbell
0.7 press/gm
Henry To'oTo'o◄
0.8 impact/gm
Roquan Smith
0.7 impact/gm
Kamari Lassiter◄
1.0 cover/gm
Nate Wiggins
0.7 cover/gm
Reed Blankenship
0.4 cover/gm
Malaki Starks◄
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
TEN
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
NO
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Cam Ward
-0.15 EPA/att
Tyler Shough◄
0.00 EPA/att
Tony Pollard
-0.10 EPA/tch
Travis Etienne Jr.◄
-0.03 EPA/tch
Carnell Tate
no 2025 data
Chris Olave
0.19 EPA/tgt
Gunnar Helm
0.05 EPA/tgt
Juwan Johnson◄
0.29 EPA/tgt
Bad◄
8.9% sack rate
Bad
7.7% sack rate
Jeffery Simmons◄
1.5 disrupt/gm
Davon Godchaux
0.1 disrupt/gm
Jermaine Johnson II◄
0.3 press/gm
Colby Wooden
0.2 press/gm
Cody Barton
0.7 impact/gm
Kaden Elliss◄
1.0 impact/gm
Alontae Taylor
0.6 cover/gm
Kool-Aid McKinstry◄
0.9 cover/gm
Amani Hooker◄
0.5 cover/gm
Justin Reid
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
ARI
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
WAS
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Jacoby Brissett◄
-0.00 EPA/att
Jayden Daniels
-0.01 EPA/att
Jeremiyah Love
no 2025 data
Jacory Croskey-Merritt◄
-0.02 EPA/tch
Marvin Harrison Jr.
0.31 EPA/tgt
Terry McLaurin◄
0.36 EPA/tgt
Trey McBride◄
0.39 EPA/tgt
Chig Okonkwo
0.13 EPA/tgt
Bad
8.3% sack rate
Good◄
7.3% sack rate
Roy Lopez
0.4 disrupt/gm
Daron Payne◄
0.6 disrupt/gm
Josh Sweat
no 2025 data
Tim Settle
no 2025 data
Jack Gibbens
0.7 impact/gm
Odafe Oweh◄
0.7 impact/gm
Denzel Burke
0.7 cover/gm
Mike Sainristil◄
0.7 cover/gm
Budda Baker
0.5 cover/gm
Nick Cross◄
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
LA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
SEA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Matthew Stafford◄
0.19 EPA/att
Sam Darnold
0.11 EPA/att
Kyren Williams◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Brady Russell
-0.01 EPA/tch
Puka Nacua◄
0.59 EPA/tgt
Jaxon Smith-Njigba
0.47 EPA/tgt
Colby Parkinson
0.17 EPA/tgt
AJ Barner◄
0.32 EPA/tgt
Elite◄
3.7% sack rate
Average
5.3% sack rate
Poona Ford
0.3 disrupt/gm
Byron Murphy II◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Kobie Turner
0.6 press/gm
Leonard Williams◄
0.8 press/gm
Byron Young◄
1.1 impact/gm
DeMarcus Lawrence
0.8 impact/gm
Jaylen Watson
0.4 cover/gm
Josh Jobe◄
0.6 cover/gm
Kamren Kinchens◄
0.6 cover/gm
Ty Okada
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
CAR
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
ATL
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Bryce Young
-0.03 EPA/att
Michael Penix Jr.◄
0.01 EPA/att
Chuba Hubbard
-0.05 EPA/tch
Bijan Robinson◄
0.03 EPA/tch
Tetairoa McMillan
0.17 EPA/tgt
Drake London◄
0.18 EPA/tgt
Tommy Tremble
0.15 EPA/tgt
Kyle Pitts Sr.◄
0.18 EPA/tgt
Average
6.4% sack rate
Elite◄
4.6% sack rate
Lee Hunter
no 2025 data
Gervon Dexter Sr.◄
0.7 disrupt/gm
Derrick Brown◄
no 2025 data
Brandon Dorlus
0.8 press/gm
Bobby Okereke
0.7 impact/gm
Divine Deablo◄
0.7 impact/gm
Mike Jackson◄
1.0 cover/gm
A.J. Terrell Jr.
0.5 cover/gm
Nick Scott
0.4 cover/gm
Jessie Bates III◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
LV
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
DEN
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
Kirk Cousins
-0.00 EPA/att
Bo Nix◄
0.08 EPA/att
Ashton Jeanty
-0.20 EPA/tch
J.K. Dobbins◄
-0.00 EPA/tch
Tre Tucker
0.18 EPA/tgt
Jaylen Waddle◄
0.27 EPA/tgt
Brock Bowers◄
0.22 EPA/tgt
Evan Engram
0.04 EPA/tgt
Bad
11.1% sack rate
Elite◄
3.6% sack rate
Adam Butler
0.3 disrupt/gm
D.J. Jones◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Jonah Laulu
no 2025 data
Zach Allen◄
1.1 press/gm
Quay Walker
0.9 impact/gm
Nik Bonitto◄
1.2 impact/gm
Eric Stokes
0.2 cover/gm
Riley Moss◄
0.8 cover/gm
Jeremy Chinn
0.3 cover/gm
Talanoa Hufanga◄
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
SF
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
PIT
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Brock Purdy◄
0.13 EPA/att
Aaron Rodgers
0.04 EPA/att
Christian McCaffrey◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Jaylen Warren
0.03 EPA/tch
Mike Evans
0.06 EPA/tgt
DK Metcalf◄
0.26 EPA/tgt
George Kittle◄
0.53 EPA/tgt
Darnell Washington
0.24 EPA/tgt
Average
4.5% sack rate
Good◄
5.3% sack rate
Osa Odighizuwa◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Keeanu Benton
0.6 disrupt/gm
Keion White
0.2 press/gm
Cameron Heyward◄
0.4 press/gm
Luke Gifford
0.1 impact/gm
Payton Wilson◄
0.7 impact/gm
Deommodore Lenoir
0.3 cover/gm
Jalen Ramsey◄
0.4 cover/gm
Ji'Ayir Brown
0.5 cover/gm
Jaquan Brisker◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
JAX
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
IND
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Trevor Lawrence
0.05 EPA/att
Daniel Jones◄
0.11 EPA/att
Bhayshul Tuten
-0.03 EPA/tch
Jonathan Taylor◄
0.07 EPA/tch
Brian Thomas Jr.
0.14 EPA/tgt
Alec Pierce◄
0.49 EPA/tgt
Brenton Strange◄
0.40 EPA/tgt
Tyler Warren
0.12 EPA/tgt
Bad
6.8% sack rate
Good◄
5.0% sack rate
DaVon Hamilton
0.2 disrupt/gm
Grover Stewart◄
0.3 disrupt/gm
Josh Hines-Allen◄
1.0 press/gm
Laiatu Latu
0.9 press/gm
Foyesade Oluokun◄
0.9 impact/gm
Akeem Davis-Gaither
0.5 impact/gm
Montaric Brown◄
0.7 cover/gm
Sauce Gardner
0.5 cover/gm
Antonio Johnson◄
0.8 cover/gm
Cam Bynum
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
TB
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
MIN
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Baker Mayfield
0.00 EPA/att
Kyler Murray◄
0.02 EPA/att
Bucky Irving
-0.10 EPA/tch
Aaron Jones Sr.◄
-0.04 EPA/tch
Emeka Egbuka◄
0.05 EPA/tgt
Justin Jefferson
-0.08 EPA/tgt
Cade Otton
0.03 EPA/tgt
T.J. Hockenson◄
0.17 EPA/tgt
Average◄
6.4% sack rate
Bad
11.0% sack rate
Vita Vea◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Caleb Banks
no 2025 data
Calijah Kancey
no 2025 data
Levi Drake Rodriguez
no 2025 data
Yaya Diaby
0.9 impact/gm
Eric Wilson◄
1.1 impact/gm
Jacob Parrish◄
0.4 cover/gm
Byron Murphy Jr.
0.4 cover/gm
Antoine Winfield Jr.◄
0.6 cover/gm
Joshua Metellus
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
BUF
OFF Run-heavy · under-center
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
NYJ
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Josh Allen◄
0.11 EPA/att
Geno Smith
-0.12 EPA/att
James Cook III◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Breece Hall
-0.04 EPA/tch
DJ Moore◄
0.12 EPA/tgt
Garrett Wilson
-0.02 EPA/tgt
Dalton Kincaid◄
0.58 EPA/tgt
Mason Taylor
0.12 EPA/tgt
Good◄
7.5% sack rate
Bad
10.8% sack rate
Deone Walker◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Harrison Phillips
0.2 disrupt/gm
T.J. Sanders
no 2025 data
Will McDonald IV◄
0.9 press/gm
Greg Rousseau
0.7 impact/gm
Jamien Sherwood◄
1.0 impact/gm
Dee Alford
0.8 cover/gm
Nahshon Wright◄
0.8 cover/gm
Cole Bishop◄
0.7 cover/gm
Dane Belton
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
MIA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
LAC
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Malik Willis◄
0.13 EPA/att
Justin Herbert
0.02 EPA/att
De'Von Achane◄
0.01 EPA/tch
Omarion Hampton
-0.01 EPA/tch
Malik Washington
-0.10 EPA/tgt
Ladd McConkey◄
0.05 EPA/tgt
Greg Dulcich◄
0.34 EPA/tgt
Charlie Kolar
0.15 EPA/tgt
Good◄
7.4% sack rate
Bad
9.5% sack rate
Jordan Phillips
0.2 disrupt/gm
Dalvin Tomlinson◄
no 2025 data
Chop Robinson
no 2025 data
Teair Tart
no 2025 data
Jordyn Brooks◄
1.2 impact/gm
Daiyan Henley
0.8 impact/gm
Jason Marshall Jr.
0.3 cover/gm
Cam Hart◄
0.5 cover/gm
Dante Trader Jr.
0.2 cover/gm
Derwin James Jr.◄
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
PHI
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · four-man rush
NE
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Jalen Hurts
0.05 EPA/att
Drake Maye◄
0.25 EPA/att
Saquon Barkley
-0.08 EPA/tch
Rhamondre Stevenson◄
-0.02 EPA/tch
DeVonta Smith◄
0.38 EPA/tgt
Romeo Doubs
0.30 EPA/tgt
Dallas Goedert◄
0.36 EPA/tgt
Hunter Henry
0.36 EPA/tgt
Average◄
6.6% sack rate
Average
8.7% sack rate
Average◄
no data
Cory Durden
0.2 disrupt/gm
Jalen Carter
no 2025 data
Christian Barmore
no 2025 data
Zack Baun◄
1.0 impact/gm
Dre'Mont Jones
0.6 impact/gm
Quinyon Mitchell◄
0.7 cover/gm
Carlton Davis III
0.4 cover/gm
Andrew Mukuba◄
0.4 cover/gm
Craig Woodson
0.3 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
GB
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
CHI
OFF Balanced · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
Jordan Love◄
0.18 EPA/att
Caleb Williams
0.06 EPA/att
MarShawn Lloyd
no 2025 data
D'Andre Swift◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Christian Watson◄
0.38 EPA/tgt
Rome Odunze
0.18 EPA/tgt
Tucker Kraft◄
0.62 EPA/tgt
Colston Loveland
0.47 EPA/tgt
Average
5.6% sack rate
Elite◄
4.0% sack rate
Javon Hargrave◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Grady Jarrett
0.3 disrupt/gm
Karl Brooks
no 2025 data
Montez Sweat◄
0.9 press/gm
Edgerrin Cooper
0.6 impact/gm
Devin Bush◄
0.9 impact/gm
Keisean Nixon◄
0.7 cover/gm
Cam Lewis
0.2 cover/gm
Evan Williams◄
0.6 cover/gm
Xavier Woods
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
DAL
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
NYG
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Dak Prescott◄
0.15 EPA/att
Jaxson Dart
0.01 EPA/att
Javonte Williams◄
-0.03 EPA/tch
Cam Skattebo
-0.05 EPA/tch
CeeDee Lamb◄
0.20 EPA/tgt
Malik Nabers
0.04 EPA/tgt
Jake Ferguson◄
0.16 EPA/tgt
Isaiah Likely
0.10 EPA/tgt
Elite◄
4.7% sack rate
Bad
8.4% sack rate
Otito Ogbonnia◄
0.3 disrupt/gm
DJ Reader
0.1 disrupt/gm
Quinnen Williams◄
no 2025 data
Shelby Harris
0.2 press/gm
Dee Winters
0.8 impact/gm
Brian Burns◄
1.8 impact/gm
Cobie Durant
0.5 cover/gm
Dru Phillips◄
0.6 cover/gm
Malik Hooker
0.2 cover/gm
Tyler Nubin◄
0.3 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
CIN
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
CLE
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Joe Burrow◄
0.08 EPA/att
Deshaun Watson
no 2025 data
Chase Brown◄
-0.04 EPA/tch
Quinshon Judkins
-0.10 EPA/tch
Ja'Marr Chase◄
0.19 EPA/tgt
Jerry Jeudy
-0.24 EPA/tgt
Mike Gesicki◄
0.07 EPA/tgt
Harold Fannin Jr.
0.01 EPA/tgt
Good◄
5.3% sack rate
Bad
8.4% sack rate
Dexter Lawrence II
0.3 disrupt/gm
Mason Graham◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Boye Mafe
0.2 press/gm
Jared Verse◄
0.9 press/gm
Demetrius Knight Jr.
0.8 impact/gm
Carson Schwesinger◄
0.9 impact/gm
Dax Hill
0.5 cover/gm
Tyson Campbell◄
0.7 cover/gm
Jordan Battle◄
0.7 cover/gm
Grant Delpit
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
Winner accuracy by grade, 1070 games. A high grade means a clearer mismatch — but the books know it too, so higher accuracy here does not mean a betting edge.
All validated trends · out-of-sample (2020–2026)
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