We simulate every NFL game on opponent-adjusted net EPA — offense and defense on both sides set the projected margin, scoring rates set the total — then post only the handful we have the most conviction in. Every posted game gets a grade and a projected score, and every one is graded against the real result.
Graded games
75.9%
the games we post · B+ or better
Full slate
62.5%
every game · n=1070
Market
67.4%
closing line · it’s better
Margin error
10.5
points, full slate
Accuracy is measured against the actual final score — did we pick the winner, and how many points off was the margin — not against the betting line. Across 2019–2025 the simulator calls 62.5% of all games straight up. The market’s closing line calls 67.4% — the NFL is the most efficient market in sports, so the full slate is worse than the market and we say so. It is a prediction tool, not a betting edge: it does not beat the spread. Analysis and entertainment, 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.
Board went 0-0 · full slate 6-7 straight up
Every game we simulated this week, highest conviction first. The board above is only the ones that cleared B+— here’s the whole week so nothing’s hidden.
TEN
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
KC
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Cam Ward
-0.15 EPA/att
Patrick Mahomes◄
The grade is our conviction in our own call — how big the projected margin is. Here is how each grade actually performed across 2019–2025:
Net EPA — opponent-adjusted expected points added on offense and defense, both sides of the ball — sets the projected margin. Scoring rates set the total. Ratings are computed as of that week’s kickoff, using only games already played, so nothing is graded with hindsight. Early in the season a team carries its prior-year rating until it has enough games to stand on its own.
It does not beat the spread. The NFL market is the sharpest in sports. We publish this because the projection and the matchup are interesting and we grade ourselves honestly against the real score — not because it prints money.
Also on our board
Separate from the simulator: situational trends mined from 1999–2026 seasons and validated out-of-sample. Only the ones that actually hold up.
The Sizzlin NFL Simulator is analysis and entertainment — not betting advice or a guaranteed outcome. 21+. 1-800-GAMBLER.
0.10 EPA/att
Tony Pollard
-0.10 EPA/tch
Kenneth Walker III◄
-0.02 EPA/tch
Carnell Tate◄
no 2025 data
Rashee Rice
0.15 EPA/tgt
Gunnar Helm
0.05 EPA/tgt
Travis Kelce◄
0.32 EPA/tgt
Bad
8.9% sack rate
Average◄
7.4% sack rate
Jeffery Simmons◄
1.5 disrupt/gm
Khyiris Tonga
0.1 disrupt/gm
Jermaine Johnson II
0.3 press/gm
George Karlaftis◄
0.8 press/gm
Cody Barton◄
0.7 impact/gm
Drue Tranquill
0.7 impact/gm
Alontae Taylor◄
0.6 cover/gm
L'Jarius Sneed
0.2 cover/gm
Amani Hooker◄
0.5 cover/gm
Alohi Gilman
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
PHI
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · four-man rush
HOU
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Jalen Hurts
0.05 EPA/att
C.J. Stroud◄
0.08 EPA/att
Saquon Barkley
-0.08 EPA/tch
David Montgomery◄
0.02 EPA/tch
DeVonta Smith◄
0.38 EPA/tgt
Nico Collins
0.26 EPA/tgt
Dallas Goedert◄
0.36 EPA/tgt
Dalton Schultz
0.29 EPA/tgt
Average
6.6% sack rate
Average◄
5.1% sack rate
Average
no data
Tommy Togiai◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Jalen Carter
no 2025 data
Will Anderson Jr.◄
1.2 press/gm
Zack Baun◄
1.0 impact/gm
Henry To'oTo'o
0.8 impact/gm
Quinyon Mitchell
0.7 cover/gm
Kamari Lassiter◄
1.0 cover/gm
Andrew Mukuba
0.4 cover/gm
Reed Blankenship◄
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
CAR
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
CIN
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Bryce Young
-0.03 EPA/att
Joe Burrow◄
0.08 EPA/att
Chuba Hubbard
-0.05 EPA/tch
Chase Brown◄
-0.04 EPA/tch
Tetairoa McMillan
0.17 EPA/tgt
Ja'Marr Chase◄
0.19 EPA/tgt
Tommy Tremble◄
0.15 EPA/tgt
Mike Gesicki
0.07 EPA/tgt
Average
6.4% sack rate
Good◄
5.3% sack rate
Lee Hunter◄
no 2025 data
Dexter Lawrence II
0.3 disrupt/gm
Derrick Brown◄
no 2025 data
Boye Mafe
0.2 press/gm
Bobby Okereke
0.7 impact/gm
Demetrius Knight Jr.◄
0.8 impact/gm
Mike Jackson◄
1.0 cover/gm
Dax Hill
0.5 cover/gm
Nick Scott
0.4 cover/gm
Jordan Battle◄
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
IND
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
NE
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Daniel Jones
0.11 EPA/att
Drake Maye◄
0.25 EPA/att
Jonathan Taylor◄
0.07 EPA/tch
Rhamondre Stevenson
-0.02 EPA/tch
Alec Pierce◄
0.49 EPA/tgt
Romeo Doubs
0.30 EPA/tgt
Tyler Warren
0.12 EPA/tgt
Hunter Henry◄
0.36 EPA/tgt
Good◄
5.0% sack rate
Average
8.7% sack rate
Grover Stewart◄
0.3 disrupt/gm
Cory Durden
0.2 disrupt/gm
Laiatu Latu◄
0.9 press/gm
Christian Barmore
no 2025 data
Akeem Davis-Gaither
0.5 impact/gm
Dre'Mont Jones◄
0.6 impact/gm
Sauce Gardner◄
0.5 cover/gm
Carlton Davis III
0.4 cover/gm
Cam Bynum◄
0.7 cover/gm
Craig Woodson
0.3 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
LV
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
JAX
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Kirk Cousins
-0.00 EPA/att
Trevor Lawrence◄
0.05 EPA/att
Ashton Jeanty
-0.20 EPA/tch
Bhayshul Tuten◄
-0.03 EPA/tch
Tre Tucker◄
0.18 EPA/tgt
Brian Thomas Jr.
0.14 EPA/tgt
Brock Bowers
0.22 EPA/tgt
Brenton Strange◄
0.40 EPA/tgt
Bad
11.1% sack rate
Bad◄
6.8% sack rate
Adam Butler◄
0.3 disrupt/gm
DaVon Hamilton
0.2 disrupt/gm
Jonah Laulu
no 2025 data
Josh Hines-Allen◄
1.0 press/gm
Quay Walker
0.9 impact/gm
Foyesade Oluokun◄
0.9 impact/gm
Eric Stokes
0.2 cover/gm
Montaric Brown◄
0.7 cover/gm
Jeremy Chinn
0.3 cover/gm
Antonio Johnson◄
0.8 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
LA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
TB
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Matthew Stafford◄
0.19 EPA/att
Baker Mayfield
0.00 EPA/att
Kyren Williams◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Bucky Irving
-0.10 EPA/tch
Puka Nacua◄
0.59 EPA/tgt
Emeka Egbuka
0.05 EPA/tgt
Colby Parkinson◄
0.17 EPA/tgt
Cade Otton
0.03 EPA/tgt
Elite◄
3.7% sack rate
Average
6.4% sack rate
Poona Ford
0.3 disrupt/gm
Vita Vea◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Kobie Turner
0.6 press/gm
Calijah Kancey◄
no 2025 data
Byron Young◄
1.1 impact/gm
Yaya Diaby
0.9 impact/gm
Jaylen Watson
0.4 cover/gm
Jacob Parrish◄
0.4 cover/gm
Kamren Kinchens
0.6 cover/gm
Antoine Winfield Jr.◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
BAL
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
NO
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Lamar Jackson◄
0.04 EPA/att
Tyler Shough
0.00 EPA/att
Derrick Henry◄
0.02 EPA/tch
Travis Etienne Jr.
-0.03 EPA/tch
Zay Flowers◄
0.32 EPA/tgt
Chris Olave
0.19 EPA/tgt
Mark Andrews
0.02 EPA/tgt
Juwan Johnson◄
0.29 EPA/tgt
Good◄
9.6% sack rate
Bad
7.7% sack rate
Travis Jones◄
0.7 disrupt/gm
Davon Godchaux
0.1 disrupt/gm
Calais Campbell◄
0.7 press/gm
Colby Wooden
0.2 press/gm
Roquan Smith
0.7 impact/gm
Kaden Elliss◄
1.0 impact/gm
Nate Wiggins
0.7 cover/gm
Kool-Aid McKinstry◄
0.9 cover/gm
Malaki Starks◄
0.5 cover/gm
Justin Reid
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
LAC
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
ATL
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Justin Herbert◄
0.02 EPA/att
Michael Penix Jr.
0.01 EPA/att
Omarion Hampton
-0.01 EPA/tch
Bijan Robinson◄
0.03 EPA/tch
Ladd McConkey
0.05 EPA/tgt
Drake London◄
0.18 EPA/tgt
Charlie Kolar
0.15 EPA/tgt
Kyle Pitts Sr.◄
0.18 EPA/tgt
Bad
9.5% sack rate
Elite◄
4.6% sack rate
Dalvin Tomlinson
no 2025 data
Gervon Dexter Sr.◄
0.7 disrupt/gm
Teair Tart◄
no 2025 data
Brandon Dorlus
0.8 press/gm
Daiyan Henley◄
0.8 impact/gm
Divine Deablo
0.7 impact/gm
Cam Hart◄
0.5 cover/gm
A.J. Terrell Jr.
0.5 cover/gm
Derwin James Jr.◄
0.7 cover/gm
Jessie Bates III
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
MIN
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
WAS
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Kyler Murray◄
0.02 EPA/att
Jayden Daniels
-0.01 EPA/att
Aaron Jones Sr.
-0.04 EPA/tch
Jacory Croskey-Merritt◄
-0.02 EPA/tch
Justin Jefferson
-0.08 EPA/tgt
Terry McLaurin◄
0.36 EPA/tgt
T.J. Hockenson◄
0.17 EPA/tgt
Chig Okonkwo
0.13 EPA/tgt
Bad
11.0% sack rate
Good◄
7.3% sack rate
Caleb Banks
no 2025 data
Daron Payne◄
0.6 disrupt/gm
Levi Drake Rodriguez
no 2025 data
Tim Settle
no 2025 data
Eric Wilson◄
1.1 impact/gm
Odafe Oweh
0.7 impact/gm
Byron Murphy Jr.
0.4 cover/gm
Mike Sainristil◄
0.7 cover/gm
Joshua Metellus◄
0.6 cover/gm
Nick Cross
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
BUF
OFF Run-heavy · under-center
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
NYJ
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Josh Allen◄
0.11 EPA/att
Geno Smith
-0.12 EPA/att
James Cook III◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Breece Hall
-0.04 EPA/tch
DJ Moore◄
0.12 EPA/tgt
Garrett Wilson
-0.02 EPA/tgt
Dalton Kincaid◄
0.58 EPA/tgt
Mason Taylor
0.12 EPA/tgt
Good◄
7.5% sack rate
Bad
10.8% sack rate
Deone Walker◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Harrison Phillips
0.2 disrupt/gm
T.J. Sanders
no 2025 data
Will McDonald IV◄
0.9 press/gm
Greg Rousseau
0.7 impact/gm
Jamien Sherwood◄
1.0 impact/gm
Dee Alford
0.8 cover/gm
Nahshon Wright◄
0.8 cover/gm
Cole Bishop◄
0.7 cover/gm
Dane Belton
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
MIA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
CHI
OFF Balanced · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
Malik Willis◄
0.13 EPA/att
Caleb Williams
0.06 EPA/att
De'Von Achane
0.01 EPA/tch
D'Andre Swift◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Malik Washington
-0.10 EPA/tgt
Rome Odunze◄
0.18 EPA/tgt
Greg Dulcich
0.34 EPA/tgt
Colston Loveland◄
0.47 EPA/tgt
Good
7.4% sack rate
Elite◄
4.0% sack rate
Jordan Phillips
0.2 disrupt/gm
Grady Jarrett◄
0.3 disrupt/gm
Chop Robinson
no 2025 data
Montez Sweat◄
0.9 press/gm
Jordyn Brooks◄
1.2 impact/gm
Devin Bush
0.9 impact/gm
Jason Marshall Jr.◄
0.3 cover/gm
Cam Lewis
0.2 cover/gm
Dante Trader Jr.
0.2 cover/gm
Xavier Woods◄
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
SEA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
ARI
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Sam Darnold◄
0.11 EPA/att
Jacoby Brissett
-0.00 EPA/att
Brady Russell◄
-0.01 EPA/tch
Jeremiyah Love
no 2025 data
Jaxon Smith-Njigba◄
0.47 EPA/tgt
Marvin Harrison Jr.
0.31 EPA/tgt
AJ Barner
0.32 EPA/tgt
Trey McBride◄
0.39 EPA/tgt
Average◄
5.3% sack rate
Bad
8.3% sack rate
Byron Murphy II◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Roy Lopez
0.4 disrupt/gm
Leonard Williams
0.8 press/gm
Josh Sweat
no 2025 data
DeMarcus Lawrence◄
0.8 impact/gm
Jack Gibbens
0.7 impact/gm
Josh Jobe
0.6 cover/gm
Denzel Burke◄
0.7 cover/gm
Ty Okada◄
0.5 cover/gm
Budda Baker
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
GB
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
DET
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
Jordan Love◄
0.18 EPA/att
Jared Goff
0.14 EPA/att
MarShawn Lloyd
no 2025 data
Jahmyr Gibbs◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Christian Watson◄
0.38 EPA/tgt
Amon-Ra St. Brown
0.28 EPA/tgt
Tucker Kraft◄
0.62 EPA/tgt
Sam LaPorta
0.54 EPA/tgt
Average
5.6% sack rate
Good◄
6.3% sack rate
Javon Hargrave◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Tyleik Williams
0.2 disrupt/gm
Karl Brooks
no 2025 data
Aidan Hutchinson◄
1.3 press/gm
Edgerrin Cooper
0.6 impact/gm
Derrick Barnes◄
0.7 impact/gm
Keisean Nixon◄
0.7 cover/gm
D.J. Reed
0.5 cover/gm
Evan Williams◄
0.6 cover/gm
Chuck Clark
0.3 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
Winner accuracy by grade, 1070 games. A high grade means a clearer mismatch — but the books know it too, so higher accuracy here does not mean a betting edge.
All validated trends · out-of-sample (2020–2026)
NFL · Members
The full board, confidence ratings, and daily plays — plus the complete track record. New plays every morning. The track record and featured picks above stay free.
NFL Pass
$9.99/mo
Just NFL
All-AccessBest value
$29.99/mo
All 5 sports
Secure checkout via Stripe. Cancel anytime. 21+. Bet responsibly.
