We simulate every NFL game on opponent-adjusted net EPA — offense and defense on both sides set the projected margin, scoring rates set the total — then post only the handful we have the most conviction in. Every posted game gets a grade and a projected score, and every one is graded against the real result.
Graded games
75.9%
the games we post · B+ or better
Full slate
62.5%
every game · n=1070
Market
67.4%
closing line · it’s better
Margin error
10.5
points, full slate
Accuracy is measured against the actual final score — did we pick the winner, and how many points off was the margin — not against the betting line. Across 2019–2025 the simulator calls 62.5% of all games straight up. The market’s closing line calls 67.4% — the NFL is the most efficient market in sports, so the full slate is worse than the market and we say so. It is a prediction tool, not a betting edge: it does not beat the spread. Analysis and entertainment, 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.
Board went 0-0 · full slate 8-6 straight up
Every game we simulated this week, highest conviction first. The board above is only the ones that cleared B+— here’s the whole week so nothing’s hidden.
DET
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
DAL
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Jared Goff
0.14 EPA/att
The grade is our conviction in our own call — how big the projected margin is. Here is how each grade actually performed across 2019–2025:
Net EPA — opponent-adjusted expected points added on offense and defense, both sides of the ball — sets the projected margin. Scoring rates set the total. Ratings are computed as of that week’s kickoff, using only games already played, so nothing is graded with hindsight. Early in the season a team carries its prior-year rating until it has enough games to stand on its own.
It does not beat the spread. The NFL market is the sharpest in sports. We publish this because the projection and the matchup are interesting and we grade ourselves honestly against the real score — not because it prints money.
Also on our board
Separate from the simulator: situational trends mined from 1999–2026 seasons and validated out-of-sample. Only the ones that actually hold up.
The Sizzlin NFL Simulator is analysis and entertainment — not betting advice or a guaranteed outcome. 21+. 1-800-GAMBLER.
Dak Prescott◄
0.15 EPA/att
Jahmyr Gibbs◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Javonte Williams
-0.03 EPA/tch
Amon-Ra St. Brown◄
0.28 EPA/tgt
CeeDee Lamb
0.20 EPA/tgt
Sam LaPorta◄
0.54 EPA/tgt
Jake Ferguson
0.16 EPA/tgt
Good
6.3% sack rate
Elite◄
4.7% sack rate
Tyleik Williams
0.2 disrupt/gm
Otito Ogbonnia◄
0.3 disrupt/gm
Aidan Hutchinson◄
1.3 press/gm
Quinnen Williams
no 2025 data
Derrick Barnes
0.7 impact/gm
Dee Winters◄
0.8 impact/gm
D.J. Reed◄
0.5 cover/gm
Cobie Durant
0.5 cover/gm
Chuck Clark◄
0.3 cover/gm
Malik Hooker
0.2 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
CHI
OFF Balanced · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
NE
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Caleb Williams
0.06 EPA/att
Drake Maye◄
0.25 EPA/att
D'Andre Swift◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Rhamondre Stevenson
-0.02 EPA/tch
Rome Odunze
0.18 EPA/tgt
Romeo Doubs◄
0.30 EPA/tgt
Colston Loveland◄
0.47 EPA/tgt
Hunter Henry
0.36 EPA/tgt
Elite◄
4.0% sack rate
Average
8.7% sack rate
Grady Jarrett◄
0.3 disrupt/gm
Cory Durden
0.2 disrupt/gm
Montez Sweat◄
0.9 press/gm
Christian Barmore
no 2025 data
Devin Bush◄
0.9 impact/gm
Dre'Mont Jones
0.6 impact/gm
Cam Lewis
0.2 cover/gm
Carlton Davis III◄
0.4 cover/gm
Xavier Woods◄
0.4 cover/gm
Craig Woodson
0.3 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
NYG
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
JAX
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Jaxson Dart
0.01 EPA/att
Trevor Lawrence◄
0.05 EPA/att
Cam Skattebo
-0.05 EPA/tch
Bhayshul Tuten◄
-0.03 EPA/tch
Malik Nabers
0.04 EPA/tgt
Brian Thomas Jr.◄
0.14 EPA/tgt
Isaiah Likely
0.10 EPA/tgt
Brenton Strange◄
0.40 EPA/tgt
Bad◄
8.4% sack rate
Bad
6.8% sack rate
DJ Reader
0.1 disrupt/gm
DaVon Hamilton◄
0.2 disrupt/gm
Shelby Harris
0.2 press/gm
Josh Hines-Allen◄
1.0 press/gm
Brian Burns◄
1.8 impact/gm
Foyesade Oluokun
0.9 impact/gm
Dru Phillips
0.6 cover/gm
Montaric Brown◄
0.7 cover/gm
Tyler Nubin
0.3 cover/gm
Antonio Johnson◄
0.8 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
ATL
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
CIN
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Michael Penix Jr.
0.01 EPA/att
Joe Burrow◄
0.08 EPA/att
Bijan Robinson◄
0.03 EPA/tch
Chase Brown
-0.04 EPA/tch
Drake London
0.18 EPA/tgt
Ja'Marr Chase◄
0.19 EPA/tgt
Kyle Pitts Sr.◄
0.18 EPA/tgt
Mike Gesicki
0.07 EPA/tgt
Elite◄
4.6% sack rate
Good
5.3% sack rate
Gervon Dexter Sr.◄
0.7 disrupt/gm
Dexter Lawrence II
0.3 disrupt/gm
Brandon Dorlus◄
0.8 press/gm
Boye Mafe
0.2 press/gm
Divine Deablo
0.7 impact/gm
Demetrius Knight Jr.◄
0.8 impact/gm
A.J. Terrell Jr.
0.5 cover/gm
Dax Hill◄
0.5 cover/gm
Jessie Bates III
0.6 cover/gm
Jordan Battle◄
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
PIT
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
MIA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Aaron Rodgers
0.04 EPA/att
Malik Willis◄
0.13 EPA/att
Jaylen Warren◄
0.03 EPA/tch
De'Von Achane
0.01 EPA/tch
DK Metcalf◄
0.26 EPA/tgt
Malik Washington
-0.10 EPA/tgt
Darnell Washington
0.24 EPA/tgt
Greg Dulcich◄
0.34 EPA/tgt
Good
5.3% sack rate
Good◄
7.4% sack rate
Keeanu Benton◄
0.6 disrupt/gm
Jordan Phillips
0.2 disrupt/gm
Cameron Heyward
0.4 press/gm
Chop Robinson◄
no 2025 data
Payton Wilson
0.7 impact/gm
Jordyn Brooks◄
1.2 impact/gm
Jalen Ramsey◄
0.4 cover/gm
Jason Marshall Jr.
0.3 cover/gm
Jaquan Brisker◄
0.6 cover/gm
Dante Trader Jr.
0.2 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
CLE
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
BAL
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Deshaun Watson◄
no 2025 data
Lamar Jackson
0.04 EPA/att
Quinshon Judkins
-0.10 EPA/tch
Derrick Henry◄
0.02 EPA/tch
Jerry Jeudy
-0.24 EPA/tgt
Zay Flowers◄
0.32 EPA/tgt
Harold Fannin Jr.
0.01 EPA/tgt
Mark Andrews◄
0.02 EPA/tgt
Bad
8.4% sack rate
Good◄
9.6% sack rate
Mason Graham
0.4 disrupt/gm
Travis Jones◄
0.7 disrupt/gm
Jared Verse◄
0.9 press/gm
Calais Campbell
0.7 press/gm
Carson Schwesinger◄
0.9 impact/gm
Roquan Smith
0.7 impact/gm
Tyson Campbell
0.7 cover/gm
Nate Wiggins
0.7 cover/gm
Grant Delpit
0.4 cover/gm
Malaki Starks◄
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
HOU
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
LV
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
C.J. Stroud◄
0.08 EPA/att
Kirk Cousins
-0.00 EPA/att
David Montgomery◄
0.02 EPA/tch
Ashton Jeanty
-0.20 EPA/tch
Nico Collins◄
0.26 EPA/tgt
Tre Tucker
0.18 EPA/tgt
Dalton Schultz◄
0.29 EPA/tgt
Brock Bowers
0.22 EPA/tgt
Average◄
5.1% sack rate
Bad
11.1% sack rate
Tommy Togiai◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Adam Butler
0.3 disrupt/gm
Will Anderson Jr.◄
1.2 press/gm
Jonah Laulu
no 2025 data
Henry To'oTo'o
0.8 impact/gm
Quay Walker◄
0.9 impact/gm
Kamari Lassiter◄
1.0 cover/gm
Eric Stokes
0.2 cover/gm
Reed Blankenship◄
0.4 cover/gm
Jeremy Chinn
0.3 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
IND
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
TEN
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Daniel Jones◄
0.11 EPA/att
Cam Ward
-0.15 EPA/att
Jonathan Taylor◄
0.07 EPA/tch
Tony Pollard
-0.10 EPA/tch
Alec Pierce◄
0.49 EPA/tgt
Carnell Tate
no 2025 data
Tyler Warren◄
0.12 EPA/tgt
Gunnar Helm
0.05 EPA/tgt
Good◄
5.0% sack rate
Bad
8.9% sack rate
Grover Stewart
0.3 disrupt/gm
Jeffery Simmons◄
1.5 disrupt/gm
Laiatu Latu◄
0.9 press/gm
Jermaine Johnson II
0.3 press/gm
Akeem Davis-Gaither
0.5 impact/gm
Cody Barton◄
0.7 impact/gm
Sauce Gardner
0.5 cover/gm
Alontae Taylor◄
0.6 cover/gm
Cam Bynum◄
0.7 cover/gm
Amani Hooker
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
SEA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
LAC
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Sam Darnold◄
0.11 EPA/att
Justin Herbert
0.02 EPA/att
Brady Russell
-0.01 EPA/tch
Omarion Hampton◄
-0.01 EPA/tch
Jaxon Smith-Njigba◄
0.47 EPA/tgt
Ladd McConkey
0.05 EPA/tgt
AJ Barner◄
0.32 EPA/tgt
Charlie Kolar
0.15 EPA/tgt
Average◄
5.3% sack rate
Bad
9.5% sack rate
Byron Murphy II◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Dalvin Tomlinson
no 2025 data
Leonard Williams
0.8 press/gm
Teair Tart
no 2025 data
DeMarcus Lawrence◄
0.8 impact/gm
Daiyan Henley
0.8 impact/gm
Josh Jobe◄
0.6 cover/gm
Cam Hart
0.5 cover/gm
Ty Okada
0.5 cover/gm
Derwin James Jr.◄
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
KC
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
SF
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Patrick Mahomes
0.10 EPA/att
Brock Purdy◄
0.13 EPA/att
Kenneth Walker III
-0.02 EPA/tch
Christian McCaffrey◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Rashee Rice◄
0.15 EPA/tgt
Mike Evans
0.06 EPA/tgt
Travis Kelce
0.32 EPA/tgt
George Kittle◄
0.53 EPA/tgt
Average
7.4% sack rate
Average◄
4.5% sack rate
Khyiris Tonga
0.1 disrupt/gm
Osa Odighizuwa◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
George Karlaftis◄
0.8 press/gm
Keion White
0.2 press/gm
Drue Tranquill◄
0.7 impact/gm
Luke Gifford
0.1 impact/gm
L'Jarius Sneed
0.2 cover/gm
Deommodore Lenoir◄
0.3 cover/gm
Alohi Gilman
0.5 cover/gm
Ji'Ayir Brown◄
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
GB
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
WAS
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Jordan Love◄
0.18 EPA/att
Jayden Daniels
-0.01 EPA/att
MarShawn Lloyd
no 2025 data
Jacory Croskey-Merritt◄
-0.02 EPA/tch
Christian Watson◄
0.38 EPA/tgt
Terry McLaurin
0.36 EPA/tgt
Tucker Kraft◄
0.62 EPA/tgt
Chig Okonkwo
0.13 EPA/tgt
Average
5.6% sack rate
Good◄
7.3% sack rate
Javon Hargrave
0.4 disrupt/gm
Daron Payne◄
0.6 disrupt/gm
Karl Brooks
no 2025 data
Tim Settle
no 2025 data
Edgerrin Cooper
0.6 impact/gm
Odafe Oweh◄
0.7 impact/gm
Keisean Nixon
0.7 cover/gm
Mike Sainristil◄
0.7 cover/gm
Evan Williams◄
0.6 cover/gm
Nick Cross
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
TB
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
CAR
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Baker Mayfield◄
0.00 EPA/att
Bryce Young
-0.03 EPA/att
Bucky Irving
-0.10 EPA/tch
Chuba Hubbard◄
-0.05 EPA/tch
Emeka Egbuka
0.05 EPA/tgt
Tetairoa McMillan◄
0.17 EPA/tgt
Cade Otton
0.03 EPA/tgt
Tommy Tremble◄
0.15 EPA/tgt
Average
6.4% sack rate
Average◄
6.4% sack rate
Vita Vea◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Lee Hunter
no 2025 data
Calijah Kancey
no 2025 data
Derrick Brown
no 2025 data
Yaya Diaby◄
0.9 impact/gm
Bobby Okereke
0.7 impact/gm
Jacob Parrish
0.4 cover/gm
Mike Jackson◄
1.0 cover/gm
Antoine Winfield Jr.◄
0.6 cover/gm
Nick Scott
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
NYJ
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
DEN
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
Geno Smith
-0.12 EPA/att
Bo Nix◄
0.08 EPA/att
Breece Hall
-0.04 EPA/tch
J.K. Dobbins◄
-0.00 EPA/tch
Garrett Wilson
-0.02 EPA/tgt
Jaylen Waddle◄
0.27 EPA/tgt
Mason Taylor◄
0.12 EPA/tgt
Evan Engram
0.04 EPA/tgt
Bad
10.8% sack rate
Elite◄
3.6% sack rate
Harrison Phillips
0.2 disrupt/gm
D.J. Jones◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Will McDonald IV
0.9 press/gm
Zach Allen◄
1.1 press/gm
Jamien Sherwood
1.0 impact/gm
Nik Bonitto◄
1.2 impact/gm
Nahshon Wright
0.8 cover/gm
Riley Moss
0.8 cover/gm
Dane Belton
0.5 cover/gm
Talanoa Hufanga◄
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
NO
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
ARI
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Tyler Shough◄
0.00 EPA/att
Jacoby Brissett
-0.00 EPA/att
Travis Etienne Jr.
-0.03 EPA/tch
Jeremiyah Love◄
no 2025 data
Chris Olave
0.19 EPA/tgt
Marvin Harrison Jr.◄
0.31 EPA/tgt
Juwan Johnson
0.29 EPA/tgt
Trey McBride◄
0.39 EPA/tgt
Bad
7.7% sack rate
Bad◄
8.3% sack rate
Davon Godchaux
0.1 disrupt/gm
Roy Lopez◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Colby Wooden
0.2 press/gm
Josh Sweat◄
no 2025 data
Kaden Elliss◄
1.0 impact/gm
Jack Gibbens
0.7 impact/gm
Kool-Aid McKinstry◄
0.9 cover/gm
Denzel Burke
0.7 cover/gm
Justin Reid
0.5 cover/gm
Budda Baker◄
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
Winner accuracy by grade, 1070 games. A high grade means a clearer mismatch — but the books know it too, so higher accuracy here does not mean a betting edge.
All validated trends · out-of-sample (2020–2026)
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