We simulate every NFL game on opponent-adjusted net EPA — offense and defense on both sides set the projected margin, scoring rates set the total — then post only the handful we have the most conviction in. Every posted game gets a grade and a projected score, and every one is graded against the real result.
Graded games
75.9%
the games we post · B+ or better
Full slate
62.5%
every game · n=1070
Market
67.4%
closing line · it’s better
Margin error
10.5
points, full slate
Accuracy is measured against the actual final score — did we pick the winner, and how many points off was the margin — not against the betting line. Across 2019–2025 the simulator calls 62.5% of all games straight up. The market’s closing line calls 67.4% — the NFL is the most efficient market in sports, so the full slate is worse than the market and we say so. It is a prediction tool, not a betting edge: it does not beat the spread. Analysis and entertainment, 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.
Board went 0-0 · full slate 6-8 straight up
Every game we simulated this week, highest conviction first. The board above is only the ones that cleared B+— here’s the whole week so nothing’s hidden.
DAL
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
PHI
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · four-man rush
Dak Prescott◄
0.15 EPA/att
The grade is our conviction in our own call — how big the projected margin is. Here is how each grade actually performed across 2019–2025:
Net EPA — opponent-adjusted expected points added on offense and defense, both sides of the ball — sets the projected margin. Scoring rates set the total. Ratings are computed as of that week’s kickoff, using only games already played, so nothing is graded with hindsight. Early in the season a team carries its prior-year rating until it has enough games to stand on its own.
It does not beat the spread. The NFL market is the sharpest in sports. We publish this because the projection and the matchup are interesting and we grade ourselves honestly against the real score — not because it prints money.
Also on our board
Separate from the simulator: situational trends mined from 1999–2026 seasons and validated out-of-sample. Only the ones that actually hold up.
The Sizzlin NFL Simulator is analysis and entertainment — not betting advice or a guaranteed outcome. 21+. 1-800-GAMBLER.
Jalen Hurts
0.05 EPA/att
Javonte Williams◄
-0.03 EPA/tch
Saquon Barkley
-0.08 EPA/tch
CeeDee Lamb
0.20 EPA/tgt
DeVonta Smith◄
0.38 EPA/tgt
Jake Ferguson
0.16 EPA/tgt
Dallas Goedert◄
0.36 EPA/tgt
Elite◄
4.7% sack rate
Average
6.6% sack rate
Otito Ogbonnia
0.3 disrupt/gm
Average◄
no data
Quinnen Williams
no 2025 data
Jalen Carter
no 2025 data
Dee Winters
0.8 impact/gm
Zack Baun◄
1.0 impact/gm
Cobie Durant
0.5 cover/gm
Quinyon Mitchell◄
0.7 cover/gm
Malik Hooker
0.2 cover/gm
Andrew Mukuba◄
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
SF
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
ATL
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Brock Purdy◄
0.13 EPA/att
Michael Penix Jr.
0.01 EPA/att
Christian McCaffrey◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Bijan Robinson
0.03 EPA/tch
Mike Evans
0.06 EPA/tgt
Drake London◄
0.18 EPA/tgt
George Kittle◄
0.53 EPA/tgt
Kyle Pitts Sr.
0.18 EPA/tgt
Average
4.5% sack rate
Elite◄
4.6% sack rate
Osa Odighizuwa◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Gervon Dexter Sr.
0.7 disrupt/gm
Keion White
0.2 press/gm
Brandon Dorlus◄
0.8 press/gm
Luke Gifford
0.1 impact/gm
Divine Deablo◄
0.7 impact/gm
Deommodore Lenoir
0.3 cover/gm
A.J. Terrell Jr.◄
0.5 cover/gm
Ji'Ayir Brown
0.5 cover/gm
Jessie Bates III◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
ARI
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
SEA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Jacoby Brissett
-0.00 EPA/att
Sam Darnold◄
0.11 EPA/att
Jeremiyah Love
no 2025 data
Brady Russell◄
-0.01 EPA/tch
Marvin Harrison Jr.
0.31 EPA/tgt
Jaxon Smith-Njigba◄
0.47 EPA/tgt
Trey McBride◄
0.39 EPA/tgt
AJ Barner
0.32 EPA/tgt
Bad
8.3% sack rate
Average◄
5.3% sack rate
Roy Lopez
0.4 disrupt/gm
Byron Murphy II◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Josh Sweat
no 2025 data
Leonard Williams
0.8 press/gm
Jack Gibbens
0.7 impact/gm
DeMarcus Lawrence◄
0.8 impact/gm
Denzel Burke◄
0.7 cover/gm
Josh Jobe
0.6 cover/gm
Budda Baker
0.5 cover/gm
Ty Okada◄
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
JAX
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
IND
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Trevor Lawrence
0.05 EPA/att
Daniel Jones◄
0.11 EPA/att
Bhayshul Tuten
-0.03 EPA/tch
Jonathan Taylor◄
0.07 EPA/tch
Brian Thomas Jr.
0.14 EPA/tgt
Alec Pierce◄
0.49 EPA/tgt
Brenton Strange◄
0.40 EPA/tgt
Tyler Warren
0.12 EPA/tgt
Bad
6.8% sack rate
Good◄
5.0% sack rate
DaVon Hamilton
0.2 disrupt/gm
Grover Stewart◄
0.3 disrupt/gm
Josh Hines-Allen◄
1.0 press/gm
Laiatu Latu
0.9 press/gm
Foyesade Oluokun◄
0.9 impact/gm
Akeem Davis-Gaither
0.5 impact/gm
Montaric Brown◄
0.7 cover/gm
Sauce Gardner
0.5 cover/gm
Antonio Johnson◄
0.8 cover/gm
Cam Bynum
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
DEN
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
LAC
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Bo Nix◄
0.08 EPA/att
Justin Herbert
0.02 EPA/att
J.K. Dobbins◄
-0.00 EPA/tch
Omarion Hampton
-0.01 EPA/tch
Jaylen Waddle◄
0.27 EPA/tgt
Ladd McConkey
0.05 EPA/tgt
Evan Engram
0.04 EPA/tgt
Charlie Kolar◄
0.15 EPA/tgt
Elite◄
3.6% sack rate
Bad
9.5% sack rate
D.J. Jones◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Dalvin Tomlinson
no 2025 data
Zach Allen◄
1.1 press/gm
Teair Tart
no 2025 data
Nik Bonitto◄
1.2 impact/gm
Daiyan Henley
0.8 impact/gm
Riley Moss◄
0.8 cover/gm
Cam Hart
0.5 cover/gm
Talanoa Hufanga
0.7 cover/gm
Derwin James Jr.◄
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
WAS
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
CHI
OFF Balanced · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
Jayden Daniels
-0.01 EPA/att
Caleb Williams◄
0.06 EPA/att
Jacory Croskey-Merritt
-0.02 EPA/tch
D'Andre Swift◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Terry McLaurin◄
0.36 EPA/tgt
Rome Odunze
0.18 EPA/tgt
Chig Okonkwo
0.13 EPA/tgt
Colston Loveland◄
0.47 EPA/tgt
Good
7.3% sack rate
Elite◄
4.0% sack rate
Daron Payne◄
0.6 disrupt/gm
Grady Jarrett
0.3 disrupt/gm
Tim Settle
no 2025 data
Montez Sweat◄
0.9 press/gm
Odafe Oweh
0.7 impact/gm
Devin Bush◄
0.9 impact/gm
Mike Sainristil◄
0.7 cover/gm
Cam Lewis
0.2 cover/gm
Nick Cross◄
0.5 cover/gm
Xavier Woods
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
MIN
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
MIA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Kyler Murray
0.02 EPA/att
Malik Willis◄
0.13 EPA/att
Aaron Jones Sr.
-0.04 EPA/tch
De'Von Achane◄
0.01 EPA/tch
Justin Jefferson◄
-0.08 EPA/tgt
Malik Washington
-0.10 EPA/tgt
T.J. Hockenson
0.17 EPA/tgt
Greg Dulcich◄
0.34 EPA/tgt
Bad
11.0% sack rate
Good◄
7.4% sack rate
Caleb Banks◄
no 2025 data
Jordan Phillips
0.2 disrupt/gm
Levi Drake Rodriguez
no 2025 data
Chop Robinson
no 2025 data
Eric Wilson
1.1 impact/gm
Jordyn Brooks◄
1.2 impact/gm
Byron Murphy Jr.◄
0.4 cover/gm
Jason Marshall Jr.
0.3 cover/gm
Joshua Metellus◄
0.6 cover/gm
Dante Trader Jr.
0.2 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
NYJ
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
GB
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Geno Smith
-0.12 EPA/att
Jordan Love◄
0.18 EPA/att
Breece Hall
-0.04 EPA/tch
MarShawn Lloyd◄
no 2025 data
Garrett Wilson
-0.02 EPA/tgt
Christian Watson◄
0.38 EPA/tgt
Mason Taylor
0.12 EPA/tgt
Tucker Kraft◄
0.62 EPA/tgt
Bad
10.8% sack rate
Average◄
5.6% sack rate
Harrison Phillips
0.2 disrupt/gm
Javon Hargrave◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Will McDonald IV◄
0.9 press/gm
Karl Brooks
no 2025 data
Jamien Sherwood◄
1.0 impact/gm
Edgerrin Cooper
0.6 impact/gm
Nahshon Wright◄
0.8 cover/gm
Keisean Nixon
0.7 cover/gm
Dane Belton
0.5 cover/gm
Evan Williams◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
CAR
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
LA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Bryce Young
-0.03 EPA/att
Matthew Stafford◄
0.19 EPA/att
Chuba Hubbard
-0.05 EPA/tch
Kyren Williams◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Tetairoa McMillan
0.17 EPA/tgt
Puka Nacua◄
0.59 EPA/tgt
Tommy Tremble
0.15 EPA/tgt
Colby Parkinson◄
0.17 EPA/tgt
Average
6.4% sack rate
Elite◄
3.7% sack rate
Lee Hunter◄
no 2025 data
Poona Ford
0.3 disrupt/gm
Derrick Brown◄
no 2025 data
Kobie Turner
0.6 press/gm
Bobby Okereke
0.7 impact/gm
Byron Young◄
1.1 impact/gm
Mike Jackson◄
1.0 cover/gm
Jaylen Watson
0.4 cover/gm
Nick Scott
0.4 cover/gm
Kamren Kinchens◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
CIN
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
NO
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Joe Burrow◄
0.08 EPA/att
Tyler Shough
0.00 EPA/att
Chase Brown
-0.04 EPA/tch
Travis Etienne Jr.◄
-0.03 EPA/tch
Ja'Marr Chase◄
0.19 EPA/tgt
Chris Olave
0.19 EPA/tgt
Mike Gesicki
0.07 EPA/tgt
Juwan Johnson◄
0.29 EPA/tgt
Good◄
5.3% sack rate
Bad
7.7% sack rate
Dexter Lawrence II◄
0.3 disrupt/gm
Davon Godchaux
0.1 disrupt/gm
Boye Mafe◄
0.2 press/gm
Colby Wooden
0.2 press/gm
Demetrius Knight Jr.
0.8 impact/gm
Kaden Elliss◄
1.0 impact/gm
Dax Hill
0.5 cover/gm
Kool-Aid McKinstry◄
0.9 cover/gm
Jordan Battle◄
0.7 cover/gm
Justin Reid
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
BAL
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
NYG
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Lamar Jackson◄
0.04 EPA/att
Jaxson Dart
0.01 EPA/att
Derrick Henry◄
0.02 EPA/tch
Cam Skattebo
-0.05 EPA/tch
Zay Flowers◄
0.32 EPA/tgt
Malik Nabers
0.04 EPA/tgt
Mark Andrews
0.02 EPA/tgt
Isaiah Likely◄
0.10 EPA/tgt
Good◄
9.6% sack rate
Bad
8.4% sack rate
Travis Jones◄
0.7 disrupt/gm
DJ Reader
0.1 disrupt/gm
Calais Campbell◄
0.7 press/gm
Shelby Harris
0.2 press/gm
Roquan Smith
0.7 impact/gm
Brian Burns◄
1.8 impact/gm
Nate Wiggins◄
0.7 cover/gm
Dru Phillips
0.6 cover/gm
Malaki Starks◄
0.5 cover/gm
Tyler Nubin
0.3 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
NE
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
CLE
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Drake Maye◄
0.25 EPA/att
Deshaun Watson
no 2025 data
Rhamondre Stevenson◄
-0.02 EPA/tch
Quinshon Judkins
-0.10 EPA/tch
Romeo Doubs◄
0.30 EPA/tgt
Jerry Jeudy
-0.24 EPA/tgt
Hunter Henry◄
0.36 EPA/tgt
Harold Fannin Jr.
0.01 EPA/tgt
Average◄
8.7% sack rate
Bad
8.4% sack rate
Cory Durden
0.2 disrupt/gm
Mason Graham◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Christian Barmore
no 2025 data
Jared Verse◄
0.9 press/gm
Dre'Mont Jones
0.6 impact/gm
Carson Schwesinger◄
0.9 impact/gm
Carlton Davis III
0.4 cover/gm
Tyson Campbell◄
0.7 cover/gm
Craig Woodson
0.3 cover/gm
Grant Delpit◄
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
TB
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
PIT
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Baker Mayfield
0.00 EPA/att
Aaron Rodgers◄
0.04 EPA/att
Bucky Irving
-0.10 EPA/tch
Jaylen Warren◄
0.03 EPA/tch
Emeka Egbuka
0.05 EPA/tgt
DK Metcalf◄
0.26 EPA/tgt
Cade Otton
0.03 EPA/tgt
Darnell Washington◄
0.24 EPA/tgt
Average
6.4% sack rate
Good◄
5.3% sack rate
Vita Vea◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Keeanu Benton
0.6 disrupt/gm
Calijah Kancey◄
no 2025 data
Cameron Heyward
0.4 press/gm
Yaya Diaby◄
0.9 impact/gm
Payton Wilson
0.7 impact/gm
Jacob Parrish◄
0.4 cover/gm
Jalen Ramsey
0.4 cover/gm
Antoine Winfield Jr.◄
0.6 cover/gm
Jaquan Brisker
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
BUF
OFF Run-heavy · under-center
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
KC
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Josh Allen◄
0.11 EPA/att
Patrick Mahomes
0.10 EPA/att
James Cook III◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Kenneth Walker III
-0.02 EPA/tch
DJ Moore
0.12 EPA/tgt
Rashee Rice◄
0.15 EPA/tgt
Dalton Kincaid◄
0.58 EPA/tgt
Travis Kelce
0.32 EPA/tgt
Good◄
7.5% sack rate
Average
7.4% sack rate
Deone Walker◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Khyiris Tonga
0.1 disrupt/gm
T.J. Sanders
no 2025 data
George Karlaftis
0.8 press/gm
Greg Rousseau
0.7 impact/gm
Drue Tranquill◄
0.7 impact/gm
Dee Alford◄
0.8 cover/gm
L'Jarius Sneed
0.2 cover/gm
Cole Bishop◄
0.7 cover/gm
Alohi Gilman
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
Winner accuracy by grade, 1070 games. A high grade means a clearer mismatch — but the books know it too, so higher accuracy here does not mean a betting edge.
All validated trends · out-of-sample (2020–2026)
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