We simulate every NFL game on opponent-adjusted net EPA — offense and defense on both sides set the projected margin, scoring rates set the total — then post only the handful we have the most conviction in. Every posted game gets a grade and a projected score, and every one is graded against the real result.
Graded games
75.9%
the games we post · B+ or better
Full slate
62.5%
every game · n=1070
Market
67.4%
closing line · it’s better
Margin error
10.5
points, full slate
Accuracy is measured against the actual final score — did we pick the winner, and how many points off was the margin — not against the betting line. Across 2019–2025 the simulator calls 62.5% of all games straight up. The market’s closing line calls 67.4% — the NFL is the most efficient market in sports, so the full slate is worse than the market and we say so. It is a prediction tool, not a betting edge: it does not beat the spread. Analysis and entertainment, 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.
Board went 2-1 · full slate 10-6 straight up
Our 3 highest-conviction calls out of 16 games this week. We post at most 6, and nothing below a B+ — a thin week posts fewer rather than padding the board.
HOU
JAX
15
27
Offense
JAX
Defense
JAX
Missed the winner
HOU
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
Every game we simulated this week, highest conviction first. The board above is only the ones that cleared B+— here’s the whole week so nothing’s hidden.
HOU
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
JAX
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
C.J. Stroud◄
0.08 EPA/att
Trevor Lawrence
The grade is our conviction in our own call — how big the projected margin is. Here is how each grade actually performed across 2019–2025:
Net EPA — opponent-adjusted expected points added on offense and defense, both sides of the ball — sets the projected margin. Scoring rates set the total. Ratings are computed as of that week’s kickoff, using only games already played, so nothing is graded with hindsight. Early in the season a team carries its prior-year rating until it has enough games to stand on its own.
It does not beat the spread. The NFL market is the sharpest in sports. We publish this because the projection and the matchup are interesting and we grade ourselves honestly against the real score — not because it prints money.
Also on our board
Separate from the simulator: situational trends mined from 1999–2026 seasons and validated out-of-sample. Only the ones that actually hold up.
The Sizzlin NFL Simulator is analysis and entertainment — not betting advice or a guaranteed outcome. 21+. 1-800-GAMBLER.
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
JAX
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
C.J. Stroud◄
0.08 EPA/att
Trevor Lawrence
0.05 EPA/att
David Montgomery◄
0.02 EPA/tch
Bhayshul Tuten
-0.03 EPA/tch
Nico Collins◄
0.26 EPA/tgt
Brian Thomas Jr.
0.14 EPA/tgt
Dalton Schultz
0.29 EPA/tgt
Brenton Strange◄
0.40 EPA/tgt
Average◄
5.1% sack rate
Bad
6.8% sack rate
Tommy Togiai◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
DaVon Hamilton
0.2 disrupt/gm
Will Anderson Jr.◄
1.2 press/gm
Josh Hines-Allen
1.0 press/gm
Henry To'oTo'o
0.8 impact/gm
Foyesade Oluokun◄
0.9 impact/gm
Kamari Lassiter◄
1.0 cover/gm
Montaric Brown
0.7 cover/gm
Reed Blankenship
0.4 cover/gm
Antonio Johnson◄
0.8 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
NFL · Members
The full board, confidence ratings, and daily plays — plus the complete track record. New plays every morning. The track record and featured picks above stay free.
NFL Pass
$9.99/mo
Just NFL
All-AccessBest value
$29.99/mo
All 5 sports
Secure checkout via Stripe. Cancel anytime. 21+. Bet responsibly.
0.05 EPA/att
David Montgomery◄
0.02 EPA/tch
Bhayshul Tuten
-0.03 EPA/tch
Nico Collins◄
0.26 EPA/tgt
Brian Thomas Jr.
0.14 EPA/tgt
Dalton Schultz
0.29 EPA/tgt
Brenton Strange◄
0.40 EPA/tgt
Average◄
5.1% sack rate
Bad
6.8% sack rate
Tommy Togiai◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
DaVon Hamilton
0.2 disrupt/gm
Will Anderson Jr.◄
1.2 press/gm
Josh Hines-Allen
1.0 press/gm
Henry To'oTo'o
0.8 impact/gm
Foyesade Oluokun◄
0.9 impact/gm
Kamari Lassiter◄
1.0 cover/gm
Montaric Brown
0.7 cover/gm
Reed Blankenship
0.4 cover/gm
Antonio Johnson◄
0.8 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
PIT
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
BUF
OFF Run-heavy · under-center
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Aaron Rodgers
0.04 EPA/att
Josh Allen◄
0.11 EPA/att
Jaylen Warren
0.03 EPA/tch
James Cook III◄
0.04 EPA/tch
DK Metcalf◄
0.26 EPA/tgt
DJ Moore
0.12 EPA/tgt
Darnell Washington
0.24 EPA/tgt
Dalton Kincaid◄
0.58 EPA/tgt
Good
5.3% sack rate
Good◄
7.5% sack rate
Keeanu Benton◄
0.6 disrupt/gm
Deone Walker
0.4 disrupt/gm
Cameron Heyward
0.4 press/gm
T.J. Sanders◄
no 2025 data
Payton Wilson◄
0.7 impact/gm
Greg Rousseau
0.7 impact/gm
Jalen Ramsey
0.4 cover/gm
Dee Alford◄
0.8 cover/gm
Jaquan Brisker
0.6 cover/gm
Cole Bishop◄
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
LV
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
KC
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Kirk Cousins
-0.00 EPA/att
Patrick Mahomes◄
0.10 EPA/att
Ashton Jeanty
-0.20 EPA/tch
Kenneth Walker III◄
-0.02 EPA/tch
Tre Tucker◄
0.18 EPA/tgt
Rashee Rice
0.15 EPA/tgt
Brock Bowers
0.22 EPA/tgt
Travis Kelce◄
0.32 EPA/tgt
Bad
11.1% sack rate
Average◄
7.4% sack rate
Adam Butler◄
0.3 disrupt/gm
Khyiris Tonga
0.1 disrupt/gm
Jonah Laulu
no 2025 data
George Karlaftis
0.8 press/gm
Quay Walker◄
0.9 impact/gm
Drue Tranquill
0.7 impact/gm
Eric Stokes◄
0.2 cover/gm
L'Jarius Sneed
0.2 cover/gm
Jeremy Chinn
0.3 cover/gm
Alohi Gilman◄
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
PHI
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · four-man rush
ARI
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Jalen Hurts◄
0.05 EPA/att
Jacoby Brissett
-0.00 EPA/att
Saquon Barkley
-0.08 EPA/tch
Jeremiyah Love◄
no 2025 data
DeVonta Smith◄
0.38 EPA/tgt
Marvin Harrison Jr.
0.31 EPA/tgt
Dallas Goedert
0.36 EPA/tgt
Trey McBride◄
0.39 EPA/tgt
Average◄
6.6% sack rate
Bad
8.3% sack rate
Average
no data
Roy Lopez◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Jalen Carter
no 2025 data
Josh Sweat
no 2025 data
Zack Baun◄
1.0 impact/gm
Jack Gibbens
0.7 impact/gm
Quinyon Mitchell
0.7 cover/gm
Denzel Burke◄
0.7 cover/gm
Andrew Mukuba
0.4 cover/gm
Budda Baker◄
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
ATL
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
TB
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Michael Penix Jr.◄
0.01 EPA/att
Baker Mayfield
0.00 EPA/att
Bijan Robinson◄
0.03 EPA/tch
Bucky Irving
-0.10 EPA/tch
Drake London◄
0.18 EPA/tgt
Emeka Egbuka
0.05 EPA/tgt
Kyle Pitts Sr.◄
0.18 EPA/tgt
Cade Otton
0.03 EPA/tgt
Elite◄
4.6% sack rate
Average
6.4% sack rate
Gervon Dexter Sr.
0.7 disrupt/gm
Vita Vea◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Brandon Dorlus
0.8 press/gm
Calijah Kancey◄
no 2025 data
Divine Deablo
0.7 impact/gm
Yaya Diaby◄
0.9 impact/gm
A.J. Terrell Jr.◄
0.5 cover/gm
Jacob Parrish
0.4 cover/gm
Jessie Bates III◄
0.6 cover/gm
Antoine Winfield Jr.
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
IND
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
DEN
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
Daniel Jones◄
0.11 EPA/att
Bo Nix
0.08 EPA/att
Jonathan Taylor◄
0.07 EPA/tch
J.K. Dobbins
-0.00 EPA/tch
Alec Pierce◄
0.49 EPA/tgt
Jaylen Waddle
0.27 EPA/tgt
Tyler Warren◄
0.12 EPA/tgt
Evan Engram
0.04 EPA/tgt
Good
5.0% sack rate
Elite◄
3.6% sack rate
Grover Stewart
0.3 disrupt/gm
D.J. Jones◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Laiatu Latu
0.9 press/gm
Zach Allen◄
1.1 press/gm
Akeem Davis-Gaither
0.5 impact/gm
Nik Bonitto◄
1.2 impact/gm
Sauce Gardner
0.5 cover/gm
Riley Moss◄
0.8 cover/gm
Cam Bynum◄
0.7 cover/gm
Talanoa Hufanga
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
SEA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
NO
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Sam Darnold◄
0.11 EPA/att
Tyler Shough
0.00 EPA/att
Brady Russell◄
-0.01 EPA/tch
Travis Etienne Jr.
-0.03 EPA/tch
Jaxon Smith-Njigba◄
0.47 EPA/tgt
Chris Olave
0.19 EPA/tgt
AJ Barner◄
0.32 EPA/tgt
Juwan Johnson
0.29 EPA/tgt
Average◄
5.3% sack rate
Bad
7.7% sack rate
Byron Murphy II◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Davon Godchaux
0.1 disrupt/gm
Leonard Williams◄
0.8 press/gm
Colby Wooden
0.2 press/gm
DeMarcus Lawrence
0.8 impact/gm
Kaden Elliss◄
1.0 impact/gm
Josh Jobe
0.6 cover/gm
Kool-Aid McKinstry◄
0.9 cover/gm
Ty Okada◄
0.5 cover/gm
Justin Reid
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
LAC
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
CLE
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Justin Herbert
0.02 EPA/att
Deshaun Watson◄
no 2025 data
Omarion Hampton◄
-0.01 EPA/tch
Quinshon Judkins
-0.10 EPA/tch
Ladd McConkey◄
0.05 EPA/tgt
Jerry Jeudy
-0.24 EPA/tgt
Charlie Kolar◄
0.15 EPA/tgt
Harold Fannin Jr.
0.01 EPA/tgt
Bad◄
9.5% sack rate
Bad
8.4% sack rate
Dalvin Tomlinson
no 2025 data
Mason Graham◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Teair Tart
no 2025 data
Jared Verse◄
0.9 press/gm
Daiyan Henley
0.8 impact/gm
Carson Schwesinger◄
0.9 impact/gm
Cam Hart
0.5 cover/gm
Tyson Campbell◄
0.7 cover/gm
Derwin James Jr.◄
0.7 cover/gm
Grant Delpit
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
DET
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
NE
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Jared Goff
0.14 EPA/att
Drake Maye◄
0.25 EPA/att
Jahmyr Gibbs◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Rhamondre Stevenson
-0.02 EPA/tch
Amon-Ra St. Brown
0.28 EPA/tgt
Romeo Doubs◄
0.30 EPA/tgt
Sam LaPorta◄
0.54 EPA/tgt
Hunter Henry
0.36 EPA/tgt
Good◄
6.3% sack rate
Average
8.7% sack rate
Tyleik Williams
0.2 disrupt/gm
Cory Durden◄
0.2 disrupt/gm
Aidan Hutchinson◄
1.3 press/gm
Christian Barmore
no 2025 data
Derrick Barnes◄
0.7 impact/gm
Dre'Mont Jones
0.6 impact/gm
D.J. Reed◄
0.5 cover/gm
Carlton Davis III
0.4 cover/gm
Chuck Clark
0.3 cover/gm
Craig Woodson◄
0.3 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
SF
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
CAR
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Brock Purdy◄
0.13 EPA/att
Bryce Young
-0.03 EPA/att
Christian McCaffrey◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Chuba Hubbard
-0.05 EPA/tch
Mike Evans
0.06 EPA/tgt
Tetairoa McMillan◄
0.17 EPA/tgt
George Kittle◄
0.53 EPA/tgt
Tommy Tremble
0.15 EPA/tgt
Average
4.5% sack rate
Average◄
6.4% sack rate
Osa Odighizuwa◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Lee Hunter
no 2025 data
Keion White
0.2 press/gm
Derrick Brown◄
no 2025 data
Luke Gifford
0.1 impact/gm
Bobby Okereke◄
0.7 impact/gm
Deommodore Lenoir
0.3 cover/gm
Mike Jackson◄
1.0 cover/gm
Ji'Ayir Brown◄
0.5 cover/gm
Nick Scott
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
TEN
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
WAS
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Cam Ward
-0.15 EPA/att
Jayden Daniels◄
-0.01 EPA/att
Tony Pollard
-0.10 EPA/tch
Jacory Croskey-Merritt◄
-0.02 EPA/tch
Carnell Tate
no 2025 data
Terry McLaurin◄
0.36 EPA/tgt
Gunnar Helm
0.05 EPA/tgt
Chig Okonkwo◄
0.13 EPA/tgt
Bad
8.9% sack rate
Good◄
7.3% sack rate
Jeffery Simmons◄
1.5 disrupt/gm
Daron Payne
0.6 disrupt/gm
Jermaine Johnson II
0.3 press/gm
Tim Settle◄
no 2025 data
Cody Barton◄
0.7 impact/gm
Odafe Oweh
0.7 impact/gm
Alontae Taylor
0.6 cover/gm
Mike Sainristil◄
0.7 cover/gm
Amani Hooker◄
0.5 cover/gm
Nick Cross
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
MIA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
NYJ
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Malik Willis◄
0.13 EPA/att
Geno Smith
-0.12 EPA/att
De'Von Achane◄
0.01 EPA/tch
Breece Hall
-0.04 EPA/tch
Malik Washington
-0.10 EPA/tgt
Garrett Wilson◄
-0.02 EPA/tgt
Greg Dulcich◄
0.34 EPA/tgt
Mason Taylor
0.12 EPA/tgt
Good◄
7.4% sack rate
Bad
10.8% sack rate
Jordan Phillips
0.2 disrupt/gm
Harrison Phillips◄
0.2 disrupt/gm
Chop Robinson
no 2025 data
Will McDonald IV◄
0.9 press/gm
Jordyn Brooks◄
1.2 impact/gm
Jamien Sherwood
1.0 impact/gm
Jason Marshall Jr.
0.3 cover/gm
Nahshon Wright◄
0.8 cover/gm
Dante Trader Jr.
0.2 cover/gm
Dane Belton◄
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
CHI
OFF Balanced · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
MIN
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Caleb Williams◄
0.06 EPA/att
Kyler Murray
0.02 EPA/att
D'Andre Swift◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Aaron Jones Sr.
-0.04 EPA/tch
Rome Odunze◄
0.18 EPA/tgt
Justin Jefferson
-0.08 EPA/tgt
Colston Loveland◄
0.47 EPA/tgt
T.J. Hockenson
0.17 EPA/tgt
Elite◄
4.0% sack rate
Bad
11.0% sack rate
Grady Jarrett
0.3 disrupt/gm
Caleb Banks◄
no 2025 data
Montez Sweat◄
0.9 press/gm
Levi Drake Rodriguez
no 2025 data
Devin Bush
0.9 impact/gm
Eric Wilson◄
1.1 impact/gm
Cam Lewis
0.2 cover/gm
Byron Murphy Jr.◄
0.4 cover/gm
Xavier Woods
0.4 cover/gm
Joshua Metellus◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
NYG
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
GB
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Jaxson Dart
0.01 EPA/att
Jordan Love◄
0.18 EPA/att
Cam Skattebo
-0.05 EPA/tch
MarShawn Lloyd◄
no 2025 data
Malik Nabers
0.04 EPA/tgt
Christian Watson◄
0.38 EPA/tgt
Isaiah Likely
0.10 EPA/tgt
Tucker Kraft◄
0.62 EPA/tgt
Bad
8.4% sack rate
Average◄
5.6% sack rate
DJ Reader
0.1 disrupt/gm
Javon Hargrave◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Shelby Harris
0.2 press/gm
Karl Brooks◄
no 2025 data
Brian Burns◄
1.8 impact/gm
Edgerrin Cooper
0.6 impact/gm
Dru Phillips
0.6 cover/gm
Keisean Nixon◄
0.7 cover/gm
Tyler Nubin
0.3 cover/gm
Evan Williams◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
CIN
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
BAL
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Joe Burrow◄
0.08 EPA/att
Lamar Jackson
0.04 EPA/att
Chase Brown
-0.04 EPA/tch
Derrick Henry◄
0.02 EPA/tch
Ja'Marr Chase
0.19 EPA/tgt
Zay Flowers◄
0.32 EPA/tgt
Mike Gesicki◄
0.07 EPA/tgt
Mark Andrews
0.02 EPA/tgt
Good
5.3% sack rate
Good◄
9.6% sack rate
Dexter Lawrence II
0.3 disrupt/gm
Travis Jones◄
0.7 disrupt/gm
Boye Mafe
0.2 press/gm
Calais Campbell◄
0.7 press/gm
Demetrius Knight Jr.◄
0.8 impact/gm
Roquan Smith
0.7 impact/gm
Dax Hill
0.5 cover/gm
Nate Wiggins◄
0.7 cover/gm
Jordan Battle◄
0.7 cover/gm
Malaki Starks
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
DAL
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
LA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Dak Prescott
0.15 EPA/att
Matthew Stafford◄
0.19 EPA/att
Javonte Williams
-0.03 EPA/tch
Kyren Williams◄
0.04 EPA/tch
CeeDee Lamb
0.20 EPA/tgt
Puka Nacua◄
0.59 EPA/tgt
Jake Ferguson
0.16 EPA/tgt
Colby Parkinson◄
0.17 EPA/tgt
Elite
4.7% sack rate
Elite◄
3.7% sack rate
Otito Ogbonnia
0.3 disrupt/gm
Poona Ford◄
0.3 disrupt/gm
Quinnen Williams◄
no 2025 data
Kobie Turner
0.6 press/gm
Dee Winters
0.8 impact/gm
Byron Young◄
1.1 impact/gm
Cobie Durant◄
0.5 cover/gm
Jaylen Watson
0.4 cover/gm
Malik Hooker
0.2 cover/gm
Kamren Kinchens◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
Winner accuracy by grade, 1070 games. A high grade means a clearer mismatch — but the books know it too, so higher accuracy here does not mean a betting edge.
All validated trends · out-of-sample (2020–2026)
NFL · Members
The full board, confidence ratings, and daily plays — plus the complete track record. New plays every morning. The track record and featured picks above stay free.
NFL Pass
$9.99/mo
Just NFL
All-AccessBest value
$29.99/mo
All 5 sports
Secure checkout via Stripe. Cancel anytime. 21+. Bet responsibly.
