We simulate every NFL game on opponent-adjusted net EPA — offense and defense on both sides set the projected margin, scoring rates set the total — then post only the handful we have the most conviction in. Every posted game gets a grade and a projected score, and every one is graded against the real result.
Graded games
75.9%
the games we post · B+ or better
Full slate
62.5%
every game · n=1070
Market
67.4%
closing line · it’s better
Margin error
10.5
points, full slate
Accuracy is measured against the actual final score — did we pick the winner, and how many points off was the margin — not against the betting line. Across 2019–2025 the simulator calls 62.5% of all games straight up. The market’s closing line calls 67.4% — the NFL is the most efficient market in sports, so the full slate is worse than the market and we say so. It is a prediction tool, not a betting edge: it does not beat the spread. Analysis and entertainment, 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.
Board went 0-2 · full slate 10-6 straight up
Our 2 highest-conviction calls out of 16 games this week. We post at most 6, and nothing below a B+ — a thin week posts fewer rather than padding the board.
ARI
CAR
18
27
Offense
ARI
Defense
CAR
Missed the winner
ARI
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
CAR
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Every game we simulated this week, highest conviction first. The board above is only the ones that cleared B+— here’s the whole week so nothing’s hidden.
ARI
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
CAR
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Jacoby Brissett◄
-0.00 EPA/att
Bryce Young
The grade is our conviction in our own call — how big the projected margin is. Here is how each grade actually performed across 2019–2025:
Net EPA — opponent-adjusted expected points added on offense and defense, both sides of the ball — sets the projected margin. Scoring rates set the total. Ratings are computed as of that week’s kickoff, using only games already played, so nothing is graded with hindsight. Early in the season a team carries its prior-year rating until it has enough games to stand on its own.
It does not beat the spread. The NFL market is the sharpest in sports. We publish this because the projection and the matchup are interesting and we grade ourselves honestly against the real score — not because it prints money.
Also on our board
Separate from the simulator: situational trends mined from 1999–2026 seasons and validated out-of-sample. Only the ones that actually hold up.
The Sizzlin NFL Simulator is analysis and entertainment — not betting advice or a guaranteed outcome. 21+. 1-800-GAMBLER.
Jacoby Brissett◄
-0.00 EPA/att
Bryce Young
-0.03 EPA/att
Jeremiyah Love◄
no 2025 data
Chuba Hubbard
-0.05 EPA/tch
Marvin Harrison Jr.◄
0.31 EPA/tgt
Tetairoa McMillan
0.17 EPA/tgt
Trey McBride◄
0.39 EPA/tgt
Tommy Tremble
0.15 EPA/tgt
Bad
8.3% sack rate
Average◄
6.4% sack rate
Roy Lopez◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Lee Hunter
no 2025 data
Josh Sweat
no 2025 data
Derrick Brown
no 2025 data
Jack Gibbens
0.7 impact/gm
Bobby Okereke◄
0.7 impact/gm
Denzel Burke
0.7 cover/gm
Mike Jackson◄
1.0 cover/gm
Budda Baker◄
0.5 cover/gm
Nick Scott
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
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-0.03 EPA/att
Jeremiyah Love◄
no 2025 data
Chuba Hubbard
-0.05 EPA/tch
Marvin Harrison Jr.◄
0.31 EPA/tgt
Tetairoa McMillan
0.17 EPA/tgt
Trey McBride◄
0.39 EPA/tgt
Tommy Tremble
0.15 EPA/tgt
Bad
8.3% sack rate
Average◄
6.4% sack rate
Roy Lopez◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Lee Hunter
no 2025 data
Josh Sweat
no 2025 data
Derrick Brown
no 2025 data
Jack Gibbens
0.7 impact/gm
Bobby Okereke◄
0.7 impact/gm
Denzel Burke
0.7 cover/gm
Mike Jackson◄
1.0 cover/gm
Budda Baker◄
0.5 cover/gm
Nick Scott
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
NYJ
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
PIT
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Geno Smith
-0.12 EPA/att
Aaron Rodgers◄
0.04 EPA/att
Breece Hall
-0.04 EPA/tch
Jaylen Warren◄
0.03 EPA/tch
Garrett Wilson
-0.02 EPA/tgt
DK Metcalf◄
0.26 EPA/tgt
Mason Taylor
0.12 EPA/tgt
Darnell Washington◄
0.24 EPA/tgt
Bad
10.8% sack rate
Good◄
5.3% sack rate
Harrison Phillips
0.2 disrupt/gm
Keeanu Benton◄
0.6 disrupt/gm
Will McDonald IV◄
0.9 press/gm
Cameron Heyward
0.4 press/gm
Jamien Sherwood◄
1.0 impact/gm
Payton Wilson
0.7 impact/gm
Nahshon Wright◄
0.8 cover/gm
Jalen Ramsey
0.4 cover/gm
Dane Belton
0.5 cover/gm
Jaquan Brisker◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
LA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
SF
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Matthew Stafford◄
0.19 EPA/att
Brock Purdy
0.13 EPA/att
Kyren Williams◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Christian McCaffrey
0.04 EPA/tch
Puka Nacua◄
0.59 EPA/tgt
Mike Evans
0.06 EPA/tgt
Colby Parkinson
0.17 EPA/tgt
George Kittle◄
0.53 EPA/tgt
Elite◄
3.7% sack rate
Average
4.5% sack rate
Poona Ford
0.3 disrupt/gm
Osa Odighizuwa◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Kobie Turner◄
0.6 press/gm
Keion White
0.2 press/gm
Byron Young◄
1.1 impact/gm
Luke Gifford
0.1 impact/gm
Jaylen Watson◄
0.4 cover/gm
Deommodore Lenoir
0.3 cover/gm
Kamren Kinchens◄
0.6 cover/gm
Ji'Ayir Brown
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
WAS
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
DAL
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Jayden Daniels
-0.01 EPA/att
Dak Prescott◄
0.15 EPA/att
Jacory Croskey-Merritt◄
-0.02 EPA/tch
Javonte Williams
-0.03 EPA/tch
Terry McLaurin◄
0.36 EPA/tgt
CeeDee Lamb
0.20 EPA/tgt
Chig Okonkwo
0.13 EPA/tgt
Jake Ferguson◄
0.16 EPA/tgt
Good
7.3% sack rate
Elite◄
4.7% sack rate
Daron Payne◄
0.6 disrupt/gm
Otito Ogbonnia
0.3 disrupt/gm
Tim Settle
no 2025 data
Quinnen Williams
no 2025 data
Odafe Oweh
0.7 impact/gm
Dee Winters◄
0.8 impact/gm
Mike Sainristil◄
0.7 cover/gm
Cobie Durant
0.5 cover/gm
Nick Cross◄
0.5 cover/gm
Malik Hooker
0.2 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
SEA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
DET
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
Sam Darnold
0.11 EPA/att
Jared Goff◄
0.14 EPA/att
Brady Russell
-0.01 EPA/tch
Jahmyr Gibbs◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Jaxon Smith-Njigba◄
0.47 EPA/tgt
Amon-Ra St. Brown
0.28 EPA/tgt
AJ Barner
0.32 EPA/tgt
Sam LaPorta◄
0.54 EPA/tgt
Average
5.3% sack rate
Good◄
6.3% sack rate
Byron Murphy II◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Tyleik Williams
0.2 disrupt/gm
Leonard Williams
0.8 press/gm
Aidan Hutchinson◄
1.3 press/gm
DeMarcus Lawrence◄
0.8 impact/gm
Derrick Barnes
0.7 impact/gm
Josh Jobe◄
0.6 cover/gm
D.J. Reed
0.5 cover/gm
Ty Okada◄
0.5 cover/gm
Chuck Clark
0.3 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
BUF
OFF Run-heavy · under-center
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
BAL
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Josh Allen◄
0.11 EPA/att
Lamar Jackson
0.04 EPA/att
James Cook III◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Derrick Henry
0.02 EPA/tch
DJ Moore
0.12 EPA/tgt
Zay Flowers◄
0.32 EPA/tgt
Dalton Kincaid◄
0.58 EPA/tgt
Mark Andrews
0.02 EPA/tgt
Good◄
7.5% sack rate
Good
9.6% sack rate
Deone Walker
0.4 disrupt/gm
Travis Jones◄
0.7 disrupt/gm
T.J. Sanders◄
no 2025 data
Calais Campbell
0.7 press/gm
Greg Rousseau
0.7 impact/gm
Roquan Smith◄
0.7 impact/gm
Dee Alford◄
0.8 cover/gm
Nate Wiggins
0.7 cover/gm
Cole Bishop◄
0.7 cover/gm
Malaki Starks
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
NE
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
GB
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Drake Maye◄
0.25 EPA/att
Jordan Love
0.18 EPA/att
Rhamondre Stevenson
-0.02 EPA/tch
MarShawn Lloyd◄
no 2025 data
Romeo Doubs
0.30 EPA/tgt
Christian Watson◄
0.38 EPA/tgt
Hunter Henry
0.36 EPA/tgt
Tucker Kraft◄
0.62 EPA/tgt
Average
8.7% sack rate
Average◄
5.6% sack rate
Cory Durden
0.2 disrupt/gm
Javon Hargrave◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Christian Barmore
no 2025 data
Karl Brooks
no 2025 data
Dre'Mont Jones
0.6 impact/gm
Edgerrin Cooper◄
0.6 impact/gm
Carlton Davis III
0.4 cover/gm
Keisean Nixon◄
0.7 cover/gm
Craig Woodson
0.3 cover/gm
Evan Williams◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
JAX
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
PHI
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · four-man rush
Trevor Lawrence
0.05 EPA/att
Jalen Hurts◄
0.05 EPA/att
Bhayshul Tuten◄
-0.03 EPA/tch
Saquon Barkley
-0.08 EPA/tch
Brian Thomas Jr.
0.14 EPA/tgt
DeVonta Smith◄
0.38 EPA/tgt
Brenton Strange◄
0.40 EPA/tgt
Dallas Goedert
0.36 EPA/tgt
Bad
6.8% sack rate
Average◄
6.6% sack rate
DaVon Hamilton
0.2 disrupt/gm
Average◄
no data
Josh Hines-Allen◄
1.0 press/gm
Jalen Carter
no 2025 data
Foyesade Oluokun
0.9 impact/gm
Zack Baun◄
1.0 impact/gm
Montaric Brown◄
0.7 cover/gm
Quinyon Mitchell
0.7 cover/gm
Antonio Johnson◄
0.8 cover/gm
Andrew Mukuba
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
LAC
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
HOU
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Justin Herbert
0.02 EPA/att
C.J. Stroud◄
0.08 EPA/att
Omarion Hampton
-0.01 EPA/tch
David Montgomery◄
0.02 EPA/tch
Ladd McConkey
0.05 EPA/tgt
Nico Collins◄
0.26 EPA/tgt
Charlie Kolar
0.15 EPA/tgt
Dalton Schultz◄
0.29 EPA/tgt
Bad
9.5% sack rate
Average◄
5.1% sack rate
Dalvin Tomlinson
no 2025 data
Tommy Togiai◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Teair Tart
no 2025 data
Will Anderson Jr.◄
1.2 press/gm
Daiyan Henley◄
0.8 impact/gm
Henry To'oTo'o
0.8 impact/gm
Cam Hart
0.5 cover/gm
Kamari Lassiter◄
1.0 cover/gm
Derwin James Jr.◄
0.7 cover/gm
Reed Blankenship
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
MIA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
CIN
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Malik Willis◄
0.13 EPA/att
Joe Burrow
0.08 EPA/att
De'Von Achane◄
0.01 EPA/tch
Chase Brown
-0.04 EPA/tch
Malik Washington
-0.10 EPA/tgt
Ja'Marr Chase◄
0.19 EPA/tgt
Greg Dulcich◄
0.34 EPA/tgt
Mike Gesicki
0.07 EPA/tgt
Good◄
7.4% sack rate
Good
5.3% sack rate
Jordan Phillips
0.2 disrupt/gm
Dexter Lawrence II◄
0.3 disrupt/gm
Chop Robinson◄
no 2025 data
Boye Mafe
0.2 press/gm
Jordyn Brooks◄
1.2 impact/gm
Demetrius Knight Jr.
0.8 impact/gm
Jason Marshall Jr.
0.3 cover/gm
Dax Hill◄
0.5 cover/gm
Dante Trader Jr.
0.2 cover/gm
Jordan Battle◄
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
MIN
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
NO
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Kyler Murray◄
0.02 EPA/att
Tyler Shough
0.00 EPA/att
Aaron Jones Sr.
-0.04 EPA/tch
Travis Etienne Jr.◄
-0.03 EPA/tch
Justin Jefferson
-0.08 EPA/tgt
Chris Olave◄
0.19 EPA/tgt
T.J. Hockenson
0.17 EPA/tgt
Juwan Johnson◄
0.29 EPA/tgt
Bad◄
11.0% sack rate
Bad
7.7% sack rate
Caleb Banks◄
no 2025 data
Davon Godchaux
0.1 disrupt/gm
Levi Drake Rodriguez◄
no 2025 data
Colby Wooden
0.2 press/gm
Eric Wilson◄
1.1 impact/gm
Kaden Elliss
1.0 impact/gm
Byron Murphy Jr.
0.4 cover/gm
Kool-Aid McKinstry◄
0.9 cover/gm
Joshua Metellus◄
0.6 cover/gm
Justin Reid
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
TEN
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
IND
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Cam Ward
-0.15 EPA/att
Daniel Jones◄
0.11 EPA/att
Tony Pollard
-0.10 EPA/tch
Jonathan Taylor◄
0.07 EPA/tch
Carnell Tate
no 2025 data
Alec Pierce◄
0.49 EPA/tgt
Gunnar Helm
0.05 EPA/tgt
Tyler Warren◄
0.12 EPA/tgt
Bad
8.9% sack rate
Good◄
5.0% sack rate
Jeffery Simmons◄
1.5 disrupt/gm
Grover Stewart
0.3 disrupt/gm
Jermaine Johnson II
0.3 press/gm
Laiatu Latu◄
0.9 press/gm
Cody Barton◄
0.7 impact/gm
Akeem Davis-Gaither
0.5 impact/gm
Alontae Taylor◄
0.6 cover/gm
Sauce Gardner
0.5 cover/gm
Amani Hooker
0.5 cover/gm
Cam Bynum◄
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
DEN
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
LV
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Bo Nix◄
0.08 EPA/att
Kirk Cousins
-0.00 EPA/att
J.K. Dobbins◄
-0.00 EPA/tch
Ashton Jeanty
-0.20 EPA/tch
Jaylen Waddle◄
0.27 EPA/tgt
Tre Tucker
0.18 EPA/tgt
Evan Engram
0.04 EPA/tgt
Brock Bowers◄
0.22 EPA/tgt
Elite◄
3.6% sack rate
Bad
11.1% sack rate
D.J. Jones◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Adam Butler
0.3 disrupt/gm
Zach Allen◄
1.1 press/gm
Jonah Laulu
no 2025 data
Nik Bonitto◄
1.2 impact/gm
Quay Walker
0.9 impact/gm
Riley Moss◄
0.8 cover/gm
Eric Stokes
0.2 cover/gm
Talanoa Hufanga◄
0.7 cover/gm
Jeremy Chinn
0.3 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
CHI
OFF Balanced · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
NYG
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Caleb Williams◄
0.06 EPA/att
Jaxson Dart
0.01 EPA/att
D'Andre Swift◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Cam Skattebo
-0.05 EPA/tch
Rome Odunze◄
0.18 EPA/tgt
Malik Nabers
0.04 EPA/tgt
Colston Loveland◄
0.47 EPA/tgt
Isaiah Likely
0.10 EPA/tgt
Elite◄
4.0% sack rate
Bad
8.4% sack rate
Grady Jarrett◄
0.3 disrupt/gm
DJ Reader
0.1 disrupt/gm
Montez Sweat◄
0.9 press/gm
Shelby Harris
0.2 press/gm
Devin Bush
0.9 impact/gm
Brian Burns◄
1.8 impact/gm
Cam Lewis
0.2 cover/gm
Dru Phillips◄
0.6 cover/gm
Xavier Woods◄
0.4 cover/gm
Tyler Nubin
0.3 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
CLE
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
ATL
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Deshaun Watson◄
no 2025 data
Michael Penix Jr.
0.01 EPA/att
Quinshon Judkins
-0.10 EPA/tch
Bijan Robinson◄
0.03 EPA/tch
Jerry Jeudy
-0.24 EPA/tgt
Drake London◄
0.18 EPA/tgt
Harold Fannin Jr.
0.01 EPA/tgt
Kyle Pitts Sr.◄
0.18 EPA/tgt
Bad
8.4% sack rate
Elite◄
4.6% sack rate
Mason Graham
0.4 disrupt/gm
Gervon Dexter Sr.◄
0.7 disrupt/gm
Jared Verse◄
0.9 press/gm
Brandon Dorlus
0.8 press/gm
Carson Schwesinger◄
0.9 impact/gm
Divine Deablo
0.7 impact/gm
Tyson Campbell◄
0.7 cover/gm
A.J. Terrell Jr.
0.5 cover/gm
Grant Delpit
0.4 cover/gm
Jessie Bates III◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
KC
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
TB
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Patrick Mahomes◄
0.10 EPA/att
Baker Mayfield
0.00 EPA/att
Kenneth Walker III◄
-0.02 EPA/tch
Bucky Irving
-0.10 EPA/tch
Rashee Rice◄
0.15 EPA/tgt
Emeka Egbuka
0.05 EPA/tgt
Travis Kelce◄
0.32 EPA/tgt
Cade Otton
0.03 EPA/tgt
Average
7.4% sack rate
Average◄
6.4% sack rate
Khyiris Tonga
0.1 disrupt/gm
Vita Vea◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
George Karlaftis
0.8 press/gm
Calijah Kancey
no 2025 data
Drue Tranquill
0.7 impact/gm
Yaya Diaby◄
0.9 impact/gm
L'Jarius Sneed
0.2 cover/gm
Jacob Parrish◄
0.4 cover/gm
Alohi Gilman
0.5 cover/gm
Antoine Winfield Jr.◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
Winner accuracy by grade, 1070 games. A high grade means a clearer mismatch — but the books know it too, so higher accuracy here does not mean a betting edge.
All validated trends · out-of-sample (2020–2026)
NFL · Members
The full board, confidence ratings, and daily plays — plus the complete track record. New plays every morning. The track record and featured picks above stay free.
NFL Pass
$9.99/mo
Just NFL
All-AccessBest value
$29.99/mo
All 5 sports
Secure checkout via Stripe. Cancel anytime. 21+. Bet responsibly.
