We simulate every NFL game on opponent-adjusted net EPA — offense and defense on both sides set the projected margin, scoring rates set the total — then post only the handful we have the most conviction in. Every posted game gets a grade and a projected score, and every one is graded against the real result.
Graded games
75.9%
the games we post · B+ or better
Full slate
62.5%
every game · n=1070
Market
67.4%
closing line · it’s better
Margin error
10.5
points, full slate
Accuracy is measured against the actual final score — did we pick the winner, and how many points off was the margin — not against the betting line. Across 2019–2025 the simulator calls 62.5% of all games straight up. The market’s closing line calls 67.4% — the NFL is the most efficient market in sports, so the full slate is worse than the market and we say so. It is a prediction tool, not a betting edge: it does not beat the spread. Analysis and entertainment, 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.
Board went 0-1 · full slate 9-7 straight up
Our 1 highest-conviction calls out of 16 games this week. We post at most 6, and nothing below a B+ — a thin week posts fewer rather than padding the board.
JAX
LAC
20
29
Offense
LAC
Defense
LAC
Missed the winner
JAX
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
LAC
Pass-heavy · mixed sets
Every game we simulated this week, highest conviction first. The board above is only the ones that cleared B+— here’s the whole week so nothing’s hidden.
JAX
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
LAC
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Trevor Lawrence◄
0.05 EPA/att
Justin Herbert
The grade is our conviction in our own call — how big the projected margin is. Here is how each grade actually performed across 2019–2025:
Net EPA — opponent-adjusted expected points added on offense and defense, both sides of the ball — sets the projected margin. Scoring rates set the total. Ratings are computed as of that week’s kickoff, using only games already played, so nothing is graded with hindsight. Early in the season a team carries its prior-year rating until it has enough games to stand on its own.
It does not beat the spread. The NFL market is the sharpest in sports. We publish this because the projection and the matchup are interesting and we grade ourselves honestly against the real score — not because it prints money.
Also on our board
Separate from the simulator: situational trends mined from 1999–2026 seasons and validated out-of-sample. Only the ones that actually hold up.
The Sizzlin NFL Simulator is analysis and entertainment — not betting advice or a guaranteed outcome. 21+. 1-800-GAMBLER.
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Trevor Lawrence◄
0.05 EPA/att
Justin Herbert
0.02 EPA/att
Bhayshul Tuten
-0.03 EPA/tch
Omarion Hampton◄
-0.01 EPA/tch
Brian Thomas Jr.◄
0.14 EPA/tgt
Ladd McConkey
0.05 EPA/tgt
Brenton Strange◄
0.40 EPA/tgt
Charlie Kolar
0.15 EPA/tgt
Bad◄
6.8% sack rate
Bad
9.5% sack rate
DaVon Hamilton
0.2 disrupt/gm
Dalvin Tomlinson◄
no 2025 data
Josh Hines-Allen◄
1.0 press/gm
Teair Tart
no 2025 data
Foyesade Oluokun◄
0.9 impact/gm
Daiyan Henley
0.8 impact/gm
Montaric Brown◄
0.7 cover/gm
Cam Hart
0.5 cover/gm
Antonio Johnson◄
0.8 cover/gm
Derwin James Jr.
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
0.02 EPA/att
Bhayshul Tuten
-0.03 EPA/tch
Omarion Hampton◄
-0.01 EPA/tch
Brian Thomas Jr.◄
0.14 EPA/tgt
Ladd McConkey
0.05 EPA/tgt
Brenton Strange◄
0.40 EPA/tgt
Charlie Kolar
0.15 EPA/tgt
Bad◄
6.8% sack rate
Bad
9.5% sack rate
DaVon Hamilton
0.2 disrupt/gm
Dalvin Tomlinson◄
no 2025 data
Josh Hines-Allen◄
1.0 press/gm
Teair Tart
no 2025 data
Foyesade Oluokun◄
0.9 impact/gm
Daiyan Henley
0.8 impact/gm
Montaric Brown◄
0.7 cover/gm
Cam Hart
0.5 cover/gm
Antonio Johnson◄
0.8 cover/gm
Derwin James Jr.
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
BAL
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
NE
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Lamar Jackson
0.04 EPA/att
Drake Maye◄
0.25 EPA/att
Derrick Henry◄
0.02 EPA/tch
Rhamondre Stevenson
-0.02 EPA/tch
Zay Flowers◄
0.32 EPA/tgt
Romeo Doubs
0.30 EPA/tgt
Mark Andrews
0.02 EPA/tgt
Hunter Henry◄
0.36 EPA/tgt
Good◄
9.6% sack rate
Average
8.7% sack rate
Travis Jones◄
0.7 disrupt/gm
Cory Durden
0.2 disrupt/gm
Calais Campbell
0.7 press/gm
Christian Barmore◄
no 2025 data
Roquan Smith◄
0.7 impact/gm
Dre'Mont Jones
0.6 impact/gm
Nate Wiggins◄
0.7 cover/gm
Carlton Davis III
0.4 cover/gm
Malaki Starks◄
0.5 cover/gm
Craig Woodson
0.3 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
DET
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
MIN
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Jared Goff◄
0.14 EPA/att
Kyler Murray
0.02 EPA/att
Jahmyr Gibbs◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Aaron Jones Sr.
-0.04 EPA/tch
Amon-Ra St. Brown◄
0.28 EPA/tgt
Justin Jefferson
-0.08 EPA/tgt
Sam LaPorta◄
0.54 EPA/tgt
T.J. Hockenson
0.17 EPA/tgt
Good◄
6.3% sack rate
Bad
11.0% sack rate
Tyleik Williams
0.2 disrupt/gm
Caleb Banks◄
no 2025 data
Aidan Hutchinson◄
1.3 press/gm
Levi Drake Rodriguez
no 2025 data
Derrick Barnes
0.7 impact/gm
Eric Wilson◄
1.1 impact/gm
D.J. Reed◄
0.5 cover/gm
Byron Murphy Jr.
0.4 cover/gm
Chuck Clark
0.3 cover/gm
Joshua Metellus◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
ATL
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
SEA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Michael Penix Jr.
0.01 EPA/att
Sam Darnold◄
0.11 EPA/att
Bijan Robinson◄
0.03 EPA/tch
Brady Russell
-0.01 EPA/tch
Drake London
0.18 EPA/tgt
Jaxon Smith-Njigba◄
0.47 EPA/tgt
Kyle Pitts Sr.
0.18 EPA/tgt
AJ Barner◄
0.32 EPA/tgt
Elite◄
4.6% sack rate
Average
5.3% sack rate
Gervon Dexter Sr.
0.7 disrupt/gm
Byron Murphy II◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Brandon Dorlus
0.8 press/gm
Leonard Williams◄
0.8 press/gm
Divine Deablo
0.7 impact/gm
DeMarcus Lawrence◄
0.8 impact/gm
A.J. Terrell Jr.
0.5 cover/gm
Josh Jobe◄
0.6 cover/gm
Jessie Bates III◄
0.6 cover/gm
Ty Okada
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
DAL
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
NYG
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Dak Prescott◄
0.15 EPA/att
Jaxson Dart
0.01 EPA/att
Javonte Williams◄
-0.03 EPA/tch
Cam Skattebo
-0.05 EPA/tch
CeeDee Lamb◄
0.20 EPA/tgt
Malik Nabers
0.04 EPA/tgt
Jake Ferguson◄
0.16 EPA/tgt
Isaiah Likely
0.10 EPA/tgt
Elite◄
4.7% sack rate
Bad
8.4% sack rate
Otito Ogbonnia◄
0.3 disrupt/gm
DJ Reader
0.1 disrupt/gm
Quinnen Williams◄
no 2025 data
Shelby Harris
0.2 press/gm
Dee Winters
0.8 impact/gm
Brian Burns◄
1.8 impact/gm
Cobie Durant
0.5 cover/gm
Dru Phillips◄
0.6 cover/gm
Malik Hooker
0.2 cover/gm
Tyler Nubin◄
0.3 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
LV
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
TEN
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Kirk Cousins◄
-0.00 EPA/att
Cam Ward
-0.15 EPA/att
Ashton Jeanty
-0.20 EPA/tch
Tony Pollard◄
-0.10 EPA/tch
Tre Tucker
0.18 EPA/tgt
Carnell Tate◄
no 2025 data
Brock Bowers◄
0.22 EPA/tgt
Gunnar Helm
0.05 EPA/tgt
Bad
11.1% sack rate
Bad◄
8.9% sack rate
Adam Butler
0.3 disrupt/gm
Jeffery Simmons◄
1.5 disrupt/gm
Jonah Laulu◄
no 2025 data
Jermaine Johnson II
0.3 press/gm
Quay Walker◄
0.9 impact/gm
Cody Barton
0.7 impact/gm
Eric Stokes
0.2 cover/gm
Alontae Taylor◄
0.6 cover/gm
Jeremy Chinn
0.3 cover/gm
Amani Hooker◄
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
PIT
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
CLE
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Aaron Rodgers
0.04 EPA/att
Deshaun Watson◄
no 2025 data
Jaylen Warren◄
0.03 EPA/tch
Quinshon Judkins
-0.10 EPA/tch
DK Metcalf◄
0.26 EPA/tgt
Jerry Jeudy
-0.24 EPA/tgt
Darnell Washington◄
0.24 EPA/tgt
Harold Fannin Jr.
0.01 EPA/tgt
Good◄
5.3% sack rate
Bad
8.4% sack rate
Keeanu Benton◄
0.6 disrupt/gm
Mason Graham
0.4 disrupt/gm
Cameron Heyward
0.4 press/gm
Jared Verse◄
0.9 press/gm
Payton Wilson
0.7 impact/gm
Carson Schwesinger◄
0.9 impact/gm
Jalen Ramsey
0.4 cover/gm
Tyson Campbell◄
0.7 cover/gm
Jaquan Brisker◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grant Delpit
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
GB
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
TB
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Jordan Love◄
0.18 EPA/att
Baker Mayfield
0.00 EPA/att
MarShawn Lloyd◄
no 2025 data
Bucky Irving
-0.10 EPA/tch
Christian Watson◄
0.38 EPA/tgt
Emeka Egbuka
0.05 EPA/tgt
Tucker Kraft◄
0.62 EPA/tgt
Cade Otton
0.03 EPA/tgt
Average◄
5.6% sack rate
Average
6.4% sack rate
Javon Hargrave
0.4 disrupt/gm
Vita Vea◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Karl Brooks
no 2025 data
Calijah Kancey
no 2025 data
Edgerrin Cooper
0.6 impact/gm
Yaya Diaby◄
0.9 impact/gm
Keisean Nixon◄
0.7 cover/gm
Jacob Parrish
0.4 cover/gm
Evan Williams
0.6 cover/gm
Antoine Winfield Jr.◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
HOU
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
CHI
OFF Balanced · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
C.J. Stroud◄
0.08 EPA/att
Caleb Williams
0.06 EPA/att
David Montgomery
0.02 EPA/tch
D'Andre Swift◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Nico Collins◄
0.26 EPA/tgt
Rome Odunze
0.18 EPA/tgt
Dalton Schultz
0.29 EPA/tgt
Colston Loveland◄
0.47 EPA/tgt
Average
5.1% sack rate
Elite◄
4.0% sack rate
Tommy Togiai◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Grady Jarrett
0.3 disrupt/gm
Will Anderson Jr.◄
1.2 press/gm
Montez Sweat
0.9 press/gm
Henry To'oTo'o
0.8 impact/gm
Devin Bush◄
0.9 impact/gm
Kamari Lassiter◄
1.0 cover/gm
Cam Lewis
0.2 cover/gm
Reed Blankenship
0.4 cover/gm
Xavier Woods◄
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
BUF
OFF Run-heavy · under-center
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
MIA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Josh Allen
0.11 EPA/att
Malik Willis◄
0.13 EPA/att
James Cook III◄
0.04 EPA/tch
De'Von Achane
0.01 EPA/tch
DJ Moore◄
0.12 EPA/tgt
Malik Washington
-0.10 EPA/tgt
Dalton Kincaid◄
0.58 EPA/tgt
Greg Dulcich
0.34 EPA/tgt
Good◄
7.5% sack rate
Good
7.4% sack rate
Deone Walker◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Jordan Phillips
0.2 disrupt/gm
T.J. Sanders
no 2025 data
Chop Robinson
no 2025 data
Greg Rousseau
0.7 impact/gm
Jordyn Brooks◄
1.2 impact/gm
Dee Alford◄
0.8 cover/gm
Jason Marshall Jr.
0.3 cover/gm
Cole Bishop◄
0.7 cover/gm
Dante Trader Jr.
0.2 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
CIN
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
NYJ
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Joe Burrow◄
0.08 EPA/att
Geno Smith
-0.12 EPA/att
Chase Brown◄
-0.04 EPA/tch
Breece Hall
-0.04 EPA/tch
Ja'Marr Chase◄
0.19 EPA/tgt
Garrett Wilson
-0.02 EPA/tgt
Mike Gesicki
0.07 EPA/tgt
Mason Taylor◄
0.12 EPA/tgt
Good◄
5.3% sack rate
Bad
10.8% sack rate
Dexter Lawrence II◄
0.3 disrupt/gm
Harrison Phillips
0.2 disrupt/gm
Boye Mafe
0.2 press/gm
Will McDonald IV◄
0.9 press/gm
Demetrius Knight Jr.
0.8 impact/gm
Jamien Sherwood◄
1.0 impact/gm
Dax Hill
0.5 cover/gm
Nahshon Wright◄
0.8 cover/gm
Jordan Battle◄
0.7 cover/gm
Dane Belton
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
LA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
ARI
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Matthew Stafford◄
0.19 EPA/att
Jacoby Brissett
-0.00 EPA/att
Kyren Williams◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Jeremiyah Love
no 2025 data
Puka Nacua◄
0.59 EPA/tgt
Marvin Harrison Jr.
0.31 EPA/tgt
Colby Parkinson
0.17 EPA/tgt
Trey McBride◄
0.39 EPA/tgt
Elite◄
3.7% sack rate
Bad
8.3% sack rate
Poona Ford
0.3 disrupt/gm
Roy Lopez◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Kobie Turner
0.6 press/gm
Josh Sweat◄
no 2025 data
Byron Young◄
1.1 impact/gm
Jack Gibbens
0.7 impact/gm
Jaylen Watson
0.4 cover/gm
Denzel Burke◄
0.7 cover/gm
Kamren Kinchens◄
0.6 cover/gm
Budda Baker
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
PHI
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · four-man rush
WAS
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Jalen Hurts◄
0.05 EPA/att
Jayden Daniels
-0.01 EPA/att
Saquon Barkley
-0.08 EPA/tch
Jacory Croskey-Merritt◄
-0.02 EPA/tch
DeVonta Smith◄
0.38 EPA/tgt
Terry McLaurin
0.36 EPA/tgt
Dallas Goedert◄
0.36 EPA/tgt
Chig Okonkwo
0.13 EPA/tgt
Average
6.6% sack rate
Good◄
7.3% sack rate
Average
no data
Daron Payne◄
0.6 disrupt/gm
Jalen Carter
no 2025 data
Tim Settle
no 2025 data
Zack Baun◄
1.0 impact/gm
Odafe Oweh
0.7 impact/gm
Quinyon Mitchell
0.7 cover/gm
Mike Sainristil◄
0.7 cover/gm
Andrew Mukuba
0.4 cover/gm
Nick Cross◄
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
KC
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
IND
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Patrick Mahomes
0.10 EPA/att
Daniel Jones◄
0.11 EPA/att
Kenneth Walker III
-0.02 EPA/tch
Jonathan Taylor◄
0.07 EPA/tch
Rashee Rice
0.15 EPA/tgt
Alec Pierce◄
0.49 EPA/tgt
Travis Kelce◄
0.32 EPA/tgt
Tyler Warren
0.12 EPA/tgt
Average
7.4% sack rate
Good◄
5.0% sack rate
Khyiris Tonga
0.1 disrupt/gm
Grover Stewart◄
0.3 disrupt/gm
George Karlaftis
0.8 press/gm
Laiatu Latu◄
0.9 press/gm
Drue Tranquill◄
0.7 impact/gm
Akeem Davis-Gaither
0.5 impact/gm
L'Jarius Sneed
0.2 cover/gm
Sauce Gardner◄
0.5 cover/gm
Alohi Gilman
0.5 cover/gm
Cam Bynum◄
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
SF
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
DEN
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
Brock Purdy◄
0.13 EPA/att
Bo Nix
0.08 EPA/att
Christian McCaffrey◄
0.04 EPA/tch
J.K. Dobbins
-0.00 EPA/tch
Mike Evans
0.06 EPA/tgt
Jaylen Waddle◄
0.27 EPA/tgt
George Kittle◄
0.53 EPA/tgt
Evan Engram
0.04 EPA/tgt
Average
4.5% sack rate
Elite◄
3.6% sack rate
Osa Odighizuwa◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
D.J. Jones
0.4 disrupt/gm
Keion White
0.2 press/gm
Zach Allen◄
1.1 press/gm
Luke Gifford
0.1 impact/gm
Nik Bonitto◄
1.2 impact/gm
Deommodore Lenoir
0.3 cover/gm
Riley Moss◄
0.8 cover/gm
Ji'Ayir Brown
0.5 cover/gm
Talanoa Hufanga◄
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
NO
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
CAR
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Tyler Shough◄
0.00 EPA/att
Bryce Young
-0.03 EPA/att
Travis Etienne Jr.◄
-0.03 EPA/tch
Chuba Hubbard
-0.05 EPA/tch
Chris Olave◄
0.19 EPA/tgt
Tetairoa McMillan
0.17 EPA/tgt
Juwan Johnson◄
0.29 EPA/tgt
Tommy Tremble
0.15 EPA/tgt
Bad
7.7% sack rate
Average◄
6.4% sack rate
Davon Godchaux
0.1 disrupt/gm
Lee Hunter◄
no 2025 data
Colby Wooden
0.2 press/gm
Derrick Brown◄
no 2025 data
Kaden Elliss◄
1.0 impact/gm
Bobby Okereke
0.7 impact/gm
Kool-Aid McKinstry
0.9 cover/gm
Mike Jackson◄
1.0 cover/gm
Justin Reid◄
0.5 cover/gm
Nick Scott
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
Winner accuracy by grade, 1070 games. A high grade means a clearer mismatch — but the books know it too, so higher accuracy here does not mean a betting edge.
All validated trends · out-of-sample (2020–2026)
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