We simulate every NFL game on opponent-adjusted net EPA — offense and defense on both sides set the projected margin, scoring rates set the total — then post only the handful we have the most conviction in. Every posted game gets a grade and a projected score, and every one is graded against the real result.
Graded games
75.9%
the games we post · B+ or better
Full slate
62.5%
every game · n=1070
Market
67.4%
closing line · it’s better
Margin error
10.5
points, full slate
Accuracy is measured against the actual final score — did we pick the winner, and how many points off was the margin — not against the betting line. Across 2019–2025 the simulator calls 62.5% of all games straight up. The market’s closing line calls 67.4% — the NFL is the most efficient market in sports, so the full slate is worse than the market and we say so. It is a prediction tool, not a betting edge: it does not beat the spread. Analysis and entertainment, 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.
Board went 2-1 · full slate 13-3 straight up
Our 3 highest-conviction calls out of 16 games this week. We post at most 6, and nothing below a B+ — a thin week posts fewer rather than padding the board.
ATL
LA
19
28
Offense
LA
Defense
LA
Called it ✓
ATL
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
LA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Every game we simulated this week, highest conviction first. The board above is only the ones that cleared B+— here’s the whole week so nothing’s hidden.
ATL
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
LA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Michael Penix Jr.
0.01 EPA/att
Matthew Stafford
The grade is our conviction in our own call — how big the projected margin is. Here is how each grade actually performed across 2019–2025:
Net EPA — opponent-adjusted expected points added on offense and defense, both sides of the ball — sets the projected margin. Scoring rates set the total. Ratings are computed as of that week’s kickoff, using only games already played, so nothing is graded with hindsight. Early in the season a team carries its prior-year rating until it has enough games to stand on its own.
It does not beat the spread. The NFL market is the sharpest in sports. We publish this because the projection and the matchup are interesting and we grade ourselves honestly against the real score — not because it prints money.
Also on our board
Separate from the simulator: situational trends mined from 1999–2026 seasons and validated out-of-sample. Only the ones that actually hold up.
The Sizzlin NFL Simulator is analysis and entertainment — not betting advice or a guaranteed outcome. 21+. 1-800-GAMBLER.
Michael Penix Jr.
0.01 EPA/att
Matthew Stafford◄
0.19 EPA/att
Bijan Robinson
0.03 EPA/tch
Kyren Williams◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Drake London
0.18 EPA/tgt
Puka Nacua◄
0.59 EPA/tgt
Kyle Pitts Sr.◄
0.18 EPA/tgt
Colby Parkinson
0.17 EPA/tgt
Elite
4.6% sack rate
Elite◄
3.7% sack rate
Gervon Dexter Sr.◄
0.7 disrupt/gm
Poona Ford
0.3 disrupt/gm
Brandon Dorlus◄
0.8 press/gm
Kobie Turner
0.6 press/gm
Divine Deablo
0.7 impact/gm
Byron Young◄
1.1 impact/gm
A.J. Terrell Jr.◄
0.5 cover/gm
Jaylen Watson
0.4 cover/gm
Jessie Bates III◄
0.6 cover/gm
Kamren Kinchens
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
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0.19 EPA/att
Bijan Robinson
0.03 EPA/tch
Kyren Williams◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Drake London
0.18 EPA/tgt
Puka Nacua◄
0.59 EPA/tgt
Kyle Pitts Sr.◄
0.18 EPA/tgt
Colby Parkinson
0.17 EPA/tgt
Elite
4.6% sack rate
Elite◄
3.7% sack rate
Gervon Dexter Sr.◄
0.7 disrupt/gm
Poona Ford
0.3 disrupt/gm
Brandon Dorlus◄
0.8 press/gm
Kobie Turner
0.6 press/gm
Divine Deablo
0.7 impact/gm
Byron Young◄
1.1 impact/gm
A.J. Terrell Jr.◄
0.5 cover/gm
Jaylen Watson
0.4 cover/gm
Jessie Bates III◄
0.6 cover/gm
Kamren Kinchens
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
CHI
OFF Balanced · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
GB
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Caleb Williams
0.06 EPA/att
Jordan Love◄
0.18 EPA/att
D'Andre Swift◄
0.04 EPA/tch
MarShawn Lloyd
no 2025 data
Rome Odunze
0.18 EPA/tgt
Christian Watson◄
0.38 EPA/tgt
Colston Loveland
0.47 EPA/tgt
Tucker Kraft◄
0.62 EPA/tgt
Elite◄
4.0% sack rate
Average
5.6% sack rate
Grady Jarrett
0.3 disrupt/gm
Javon Hargrave◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Montez Sweat◄
0.9 press/gm
Karl Brooks
no 2025 data
Devin Bush◄
0.9 impact/gm
Edgerrin Cooper
0.6 impact/gm
Cam Lewis
0.2 cover/gm
Keisean Nixon◄
0.7 cover/gm
Xavier Woods
0.4 cover/gm
Evan Williams◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
NYJ
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
CLE
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Geno Smith
-0.12 EPA/att
Deshaun Watson◄
no 2025 data
Breece Hall◄
-0.04 EPA/tch
Quinshon Judkins
-0.10 EPA/tch
Garrett Wilson◄
-0.02 EPA/tgt
Jerry Jeudy
-0.24 EPA/tgt
Mason Taylor◄
0.12 EPA/tgt
Harold Fannin Jr.
0.01 EPA/tgt
Bad◄
10.8% sack rate
Bad
8.4% sack rate
Harrison Phillips
0.2 disrupt/gm
Mason Graham◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Will McDonald IV◄
0.9 press/gm
Jared Verse
0.9 press/gm
Jamien Sherwood◄
1.0 impact/gm
Carson Schwesinger
0.9 impact/gm
Nahshon Wright◄
0.8 cover/gm
Tyson Campbell
0.7 cover/gm
Dane Belton◄
0.5 cover/gm
Grant Delpit
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
HOU
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
DEN
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
C.J. Stroud
0.08 EPA/att
Bo Nix◄
0.08 EPA/att
David Montgomery◄
0.02 EPA/tch
J.K. Dobbins
-0.00 EPA/tch
Nico Collins
0.26 EPA/tgt
Jaylen Waddle◄
0.27 EPA/tgt
Dalton Schultz◄
0.29 EPA/tgt
Evan Engram
0.04 EPA/tgt
Average
5.1% sack rate
Elite◄
3.6% sack rate
Tommy Togiai◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
D.J. Jones
0.4 disrupt/gm
Will Anderson Jr.◄
1.2 press/gm
Zach Allen
1.1 press/gm
Henry To'oTo'o
0.8 impact/gm
Nik Bonitto◄
1.2 impact/gm
Kamari Lassiter◄
1.0 cover/gm
Riley Moss
0.8 cover/gm
Reed Blankenship
0.4 cover/gm
Talanoa Hufanga◄
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
TEN
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
BUF
OFF Run-heavy · under-center
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Cam Ward
-0.15 EPA/att
Josh Allen◄
0.11 EPA/att
Tony Pollard
-0.10 EPA/tch
James Cook III◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Carnell Tate◄
no 2025 data
DJ Moore
0.12 EPA/tgt
Gunnar Helm
0.05 EPA/tgt
Dalton Kincaid◄
0.58 EPA/tgt
Bad
8.9% sack rate
Good◄
7.5% sack rate
Jeffery Simmons◄
1.5 disrupt/gm
Deone Walker
0.4 disrupt/gm
Jermaine Johnson II
0.3 press/gm
T.J. Sanders◄
no 2025 data
Cody Barton◄
0.7 impact/gm
Greg Rousseau
0.7 impact/gm
Alontae Taylor
0.6 cover/gm
Dee Alford◄
0.8 cover/gm
Amani Hooker
0.5 cover/gm
Cole Bishop◄
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
CIN
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
DAL
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Joe Burrow
0.08 EPA/att
Dak Prescott◄
0.15 EPA/att
Chase Brown
-0.04 EPA/tch
Javonte Williams◄
-0.03 EPA/tch
Ja'Marr Chase
0.19 EPA/tgt
CeeDee Lamb◄
0.20 EPA/tgt
Mike Gesicki
0.07 EPA/tgt
Jake Ferguson◄
0.16 EPA/tgt
Good
5.3% sack rate
Elite◄
4.7% sack rate
Dexter Lawrence II◄
0.3 disrupt/gm
Otito Ogbonnia
0.3 disrupt/gm
Boye Mafe
0.2 press/gm
Quinnen Williams◄
no 2025 data
Demetrius Knight Jr.
0.8 impact/gm
Dee Winters◄
0.8 impact/gm
Dax Hill◄
0.5 cover/gm
Cobie Durant
0.5 cover/gm
Jordan Battle◄
0.7 cover/gm
Malik Hooker
0.2 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
SEA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
SF
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Sam Darnold
0.11 EPA/att
Brock Purdy◄
0.13 EPA/att
Brady Russell
-0.01 EPA/tch
Christian McCaffrey◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Jaxon Smith-Njigba◄
0.47 EPA/tgt
Mike Evans
0.06 EPA/tgt
AJ Barner
0.32 EPA/tgt
George Kittle◄
0.53 EPA/tgt
Average◄
5.3% sack rate
Average
4.5% sack rate
Byron Murphy II◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Osa Odighizuwa
0.8 disrupt/gm
Leonard Williams◄
0.8 press/gm
Keion White
0.2 press/gm
DeMarcus Lawrence◄
0.8 impact/gm
Luke Gifford
0.1 impact/gm
Josh Jobe◄
0.6 cover/gm
Deommodore Lenoir
0.3 cover/gm
Ty Okada
0.5 cover/gm
Ji'Ayir Brown◄
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
LAC
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
KC
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Justin Herbert
0.02 EPA/att
Patrick Mahomes◄
0.10 EPA/att
Omarion Hampton◄
-0.01 EPA/tch
Kenneth Walker III
-0.02 EPA/tch
Ladd McConkey
0.05 EPA/tgt
Rashee Rice◄
0.15 EPA/tgt
Charlie Kolar
0.15 EPA/tgt
Travis Kelce◄
0.32 EPA/tgt
Bad
9.5% sack rate
Average◄
7.4% sack rate
Dalvin Tomlinson◄
no 2025 data
Khyiris Tonga
0.1 disrupt/gm
Teair Tart
no 2025 data
George Karlaftis
0.8 press/gm
Daiyan Henley◄
0.8 impact/gm
Drue Tranquill
0.7 impact/gm
Cam Hart◄
0.5 cover/gm
L'Jarius Sneed
0.2 cover/gm
Derwin James Jr.◄
0.7 cover/gm
Alohi Gilman
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
MIN
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
PHI
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · four-man rush
Kyler Murray
0.02 EPA/att
Jalen Hurts◄
0.05 EPA/att
Aaron Jones Sr.◄
-0.04 EPA/tch
Saquon Barkley
-0.08 EPA/tch
Justin Jefferson
-0.08 EPA/tgt
DeVonta Smith◄
0.38 EPA/tgt
T.J. Hockenson
0.17 EPA/tgt
Dallas Goedert◄
0.36 EPA/tgt
Bad
11.0% sack rate
Average◄
6.6% sack rate
Caleb Banks
no 2025 data
Average
no data
Levi Drake Rodriguez
no 2025 data
Jalen Carter
no 2025 data
Eric Wilson◄
1.1 impact/gm
Zack Baun
1.0 impact/gm
Byron Murphy Jr.
0.4 cover/gm
Quinyon Mitchell◄
0.7 cover/gm
Joshua Metellus◄
0.6 cover/gm
Andrew Mukuba
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
NE
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
PIT
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Drake Maye◄
0.25 EPA/att
Aaron Rodgers
0.04 EPA/att
Rhamondre Stevenson
-0.02 EPA/tch
Jaylen Warren◄
0.03 EPA/tch
Romeo Doubs◄
0.30 EPA/tgt
DK Metcalf
0.26 EPA/tgt
Hunter Henry◄
0.36 EPA/tgt
Darnell Washington
0.24 EPA/tgt
Average
8.7% sack rate
Good◄
5.3% sack rate
Cory Durden
0.2 disrupt/gm
Keeanu Benton◄
0.6 disrupt/gm
Christian Barmore◄
no 2025 data
Cameron Heyward
0.4 press/gm
Dre'Mont Jones
0.6 impact/gm
Payton Wilson◄
0.7 impact/gm
Carlton Davis III
0.4 cover/gm
Jalen Ramsey
0.4 cover/gm
Craig Woodson
0.3 cover/gm
Jaquan Brisker◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
MIA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
BAL
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Malik Willis◄
0.13 EPA/att
Lamar Jackson
0.04 EPA/att
De'Von Achane
0.01 EPA/tch
Derrick Henry◄
0.02 EPA/tch
Malik Washington
-0.10 EPA/tgt
Zay Flowers◄
0.32 EPA/tgt
Greg Dulcich◄
0.34 EPA/tgt
Mark Andrews
0.02 EPA/tgt
Good
7.4% sack rate
Good◄
9.6% sack rate
Jordan Phillips
0.2 disrupt/gm
Travis Jones◄
0.7 disrupt/gm
Chop Robinson◄
no 2025 data
Calais Campbell
0.7 press/gm
Jordyn Brooks◄
1.2 impact/gm
Roquan Smith
0.7 impact/gm
Jason Marshall Jr.
0.3 cover/gm
Nate Wiggins◄
0.7 cover/gm
Dante Trader Jr.
0.2 cover/gm
Malaki Starks◄
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
IND
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
JAX
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Daniel Jones◄
0.11 EPA/att
Trevor Lawrence
0.05 EPA/att
Jonathan Taylor◄
0.07 EPA/tch
Bhayshul Tuten
-0.03 EPA/tch
Alec Pierce◄
0.49 EPA/tgt
Brian Thomas Jr.
0.14 EPA/tgt
Tyler Warren
0.12 EPA/tgt
Brenton Strange◄
0.40 EPA/tgt
Good◄
5.0% sack rate
Bad
6.8% sack rate
Grover Stewart◄
0.3 disrupt/gm
DaVon Hamilton
0.2 disrupt/gm
Laiatu Latu
0.9 press/gm
Josh Hines-Allen◄
1.0 press/gm
Akeem Davis-Gaither
0.5 impact/gm
Foyesade Oluokun◄
0.9 impact/gm
Sauce Gardner
0.5 cover/gm
Montaric Brown◄
0.7 cover/gm
Cam Bynum
0.7 cover/gm
Antonio Johnson◄
0.8 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
WAS
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
DET
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
Jayden Daniels
-0.01 EPA/att
Jared Goff◄
0.14 EPA/att
Jacory Croskey-Merritt
-0.02 EPA/tch
Jahmyr Gibbs◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Terry McLaurin◄
0.36 EPA/tgt
Amon-Ra St. Brown
0.28 EPA/tgt
Chig Okonkwo
0.13 EPA/tgt
Sam LaPorta◄
0.54 EPA/tgt
Good
7.3% sack rate
Good◄
6.3% sack rate
Daron Payne◄
0.6 disrupt/gm
Tyleik Williams
0.2 disrupt/gm
Tim Settle
no 2025 data
Aidan Hutchinson◄
1.3 press/gm
Odafe Oweh◄
0.7 impact/gm
Derrick Barnes
0.7 impact/gm
Mike Sainristil◄
0.7 cover/gm
D.J. Reed
0.5 cover/gm
Nick Cross◄
0.5 cover/gm
Chuck Clark
0.3 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
TB
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
NO
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Baker Mayfield
0.00 EPA/att
Tyler Shough◄
0.00 EPA/att
Bucky Irving
-0.10 EPA/tch
Travis Etienne Jr.◄
-0.03 EPA/tch
Emeka Egbuka
0.05 EPA/tgt
Chris Olave◄
0.19 EPA/tgt
Cade Otton
0.03 EPA/tgt
Juwan Johnson◄
0.29 EPA/tgt
Average◄
6.4% sack rate
Bad
7.7% sack rate
Vita Vea◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Davon Godchaux
0.1 disrupt/gm
Calijah Kancey◄
no 2025 data
Colby Wooden
0.2 press/gm
Yaya Diaby
0.9 impact/gm
Kaden Elliss◄
1.0 impact/gm
Jacob Parrish
0.4 cover/gm
Kool-Aid McKinstry◄
0.9 cover/gm
Antoine Winfield Jr.◄
0.6 cover/gm
Justin Reid
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
ARI
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
LV
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Jacoby Brissett
-0.00 EPA/att
Kirk Cousins◄
-0.00 EPA/att
Jeremiyah Love◄
no 2025 data
Ashton Jeanty
-0.20 EPA/tch
Marvin Harrison Jr.◄
0.31 EPA/tgt
Tre Tucker
0.18 EPA/tgt
Trey McBride◄
0.39 EPA/tgt
Brock Bowers
0.22 EPA/tgt
Bad◄
8.3% sack rate
Bad
11.1% sack rate
Roy Lopez◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Adam Butler
0.3 disrupt/gm
Josh Sweat
no 2025 data
Jonah Laulu
no 2025 data
Jack Gibbens
0.7 impact/gm
Quay Walker◄
0.9 impact/gm
Denzel Burke◄
0.7 cover/gm
Eric Stokes
0.2 cover/gm
Budda Baker◄
0.5 cover/gm
Jeremy Chinn
0.3 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
CAR
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
NYG
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Bryce Young
-0.03 EPA/att
Jaxson Dart◄
0.01 EPA/att
Chuba Hubbard
-0.05 EPA/tch
Cam Skattebo◄
-0.05 EPA/tch
Tetairoa McMillan◄
0.17 EPA/tgt
Malik Nabers
0.04 EPA/tgt
Tommy Tremble◄
0.15 EPA/tgt
Isaiah Likely
0.10 EPA/tgt
Average◄
6.4% sack rate
Bad
8.4% sack rate
Lee Hunter◄
no 2025 data
DJ Reader
0.1 disrupt/gm
Derrick Brown◄
no 2025 data
Shelby Harris
0.2 press/gm
Bobby Okereke
0.7 impact/gm
Brian Burns◄
1.8 impact/gm
Mike Jackson◄
1.0 cover/gm
Dru Phillips
0.6 cover/gm
Nick Scott◄
0.4 cover/gm
Tyler Nubin
0.3 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
Winner accuracy by grade, 1070 games. A high grade means a clearer mismatch — but the books know it too, so higher accuracy here does not mean a betting edge.
All validated trends · out-of-sample (2020–2026)
NFL · Members
The full board, confidence ratings, and daily plays — plus the complete track record. New plays every morning. The track record and featured picks above stay free.
NFL Pass
$9.99/mo
Just NFL
All-AccessBest value
$29.99/mo
All 5 sports
Secure checkout via Stripe. Cancel anytime. 21+. Bet responsibly.
