We simulate every NFL game on opponent-adjusted net EPA — offense and defense on both sides set the projected margin, scoring rates set the total — then post only the handful we have the most conviction in. Every posted game gets a grade and a projected score, and every one is graded against the real result.
Graded games
75.9%
the games we post · B+ or better
Full slate
62.5%
every game · n=1070
Market
67.4%
closing line · it’s better
Margin error
10.5
points, full slate
Accuracy is measured against the actual final score — did we pick the winner, and how many points off was the margin — not against the betting line. Across 2019–2025 the simulator calls 62.5% of all games straight up. The market’s closing line calls 67.4% — the NFL is the most efficient market in sports, so the full slate is worse than the market and we say so. It is a prediction tool, not a betting edge: it does not beat the spread. Analysis and entertainment, 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.
Board went 2-0 · full slate 11-5 straight up
Our 2 highest-conviction calls out of 16 games this week. We post at most 6, and nothing below a B+ — a thin week posts fewer rather than padding the board.
ARI
SF
17
27
Offense
SF
Defense
SF
Called it ✓
ARI
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
SF
Balanced · mixed sets
Every game we simulated this week, highest conviction first. The board above is only the ones that cleared B+— here’s the whole week so nothing’s hidden.
ARI
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
SF
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Jacoby Brissett
-0.00 EPA/att
Brock Purdy
The grade is our conviction in our own call — how big the projected margin is. Here is how each grade actually performed across 2019–2025:
Net EPA — opponent-adjusted expected points added on offense and defense, both sides of the ball — sets the projected margin. Scoring rates set the total. Ratings are computed as of that week’s kickoff, using only games already played, so nothing is graded with hindsight. Early in the season a team carries its prior-year rating until it has enough games to stand on its own.
It does not beat the spread. The NFL market is the sharpest in sports. We publish this because the projection and the matchup are interesting and we grade ourselves honestly against the real score — not because it prints money.
Also on our board
Separate from the simulator: situational trends mined from 1999–2026 seasons and validated out-of-sample. Only the ones that actually hold up.
The Sizzlin NFL Simulator is analysis and entertainment — not betting advice or a guaranteed outcome. 21+. 1-800-GAMBLER.
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Jacoby Brissett
-0.00 EPA/att
Brock Purdy◄
0.13 EPA/att
Jeremiyah Love
no 2025 data
Christian McCaffrey◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Marvin Harrison Jr.◄
0.31 EPA/tgt
Mike Evans
0.06 EPA/tgt
Trey McBride
0.39 EPA/tgt
George Kittle◄
0.53 EPA/tgt
Bad
8.3% sack rate
Average◄
4.5% sack rate
Roy Lopez
0.4 disrupt/gm
Osa Odighizuwa◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Josh Sweat◄
no 2025 data
Keion White
0.2 press/gm
Jack Gibbens◄
0.7 impact/gm
Luke Gifford
0.1 impact/gm
Denzel Burke◄
0.7 cover/gm
Deommodore Lenoir
0.3 cover/gm
Budda Baker
0.5 cover/gm
Ji'Ayir Brown◄
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
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0.13 EPA/att
Jeremiyah Love
no 2025 data
Christian McCaffrey◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Marvin Harrison Jr.◄
0.31 EPA/tgt
Mike Evans
0.06 EPA/tgt
Trey McBride
0.39 EPA/tgt
George Kittle◄
0.53 EPA/tgt
Bad
8.3% sack rate
Average◄
4.5% sack rate
Roy Lopez
0.4 disrupt/gm
Osa Odighizuwa◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Josh Sweat◄
no 2025 data
Keion White
0.2 press/gm
Jack Gibbens◄
0.7 impact/gm
Luke Gifford
0.1 impact/gm
Denzel Burke◄
0.7 cover/gm
Deommodore Lenoir
0.3 cover/gm
Budda Baker
0.5 cover/gm
Ji'Ayir Brown◄
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
NYG
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
PHI
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · four-man rush
Jaxson Dart
0.01 EPA/att
Jalen Hurts◄
0.05 EPA/att
Cam Skattebo◄
-0.05 EPA/tch
Saquon Barkley
-0.08 EPA/tch
Malik Nabers
0.04 EPA/tgt
DeVonta Smith◄
0.38 EPA/tgt
Isaiah Likely
0.10 EPA/tgt
Dallas Goedert◄
0.36 EPA/tgt
Bad
8.4% sack rate
Average◄
6.6% sack rate
DJ Reader
0.1 disrupt/gm
Average◄
no data
Shelby Harris
0.2 press/gm
Jalen Carter◄
no 2025 data
Brian Burns◄
1.8 impact/gm
Zack Baun
1.0 impact/gm
Dru Phillips
0.6 cover/gm
Quinyon Mitchell◄
0.7 cover/gm
Tyler Nubin
0.3 cover/gm
Andrew Mukuba◄
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
TEN
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
JAX
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Cam Ward
-0.15 EPA/att
Trevor Lawrence◄
0.05 EPA/att
Tony Pollard
-0.10 EPA/tch
Bhayshul Tuten◄
-0.03 EPA/tch
Carnell Tate◄
no 2025 data
Brian Thomas Jr.
0.14 EPA/tgt
Gunnar Helm
0.05 EPA/tgt
Brenton Strange◄
0.40 EPA/tgt
Bad
8.9% sack rate
Bad◄
6.8% sack rate
Jeffery Simmons◄
1.5 disrupt/gm
DaVon Hamilton
0.2 disrupt/gm
Jermaine Johnson II
0.3 press/gm
Josh Hines-Allen◄
1.0 press/gm
Cody Barton
0.7 impact/gm
Foyesade Oluokun◄
0.9 impact/gm
Alontae Taylor
0.6 cover/gm
Montaric Brown◄
0.7 cover/gm
Amani Hooker
0.5 cover/gm
Antonio Johnson◄
0.8 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
NE
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
BUF
OFF Run-heavy · under-center
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Drake Maye◄
0.25 EPA/att
Josh Allen
0.11 EPA/att
Rhamondre Stevenson
-0.02 EPA/tch
James Cook III◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Romeo Doubs◄
0.30 EPA/tgt
DJ Moore
0.12 EPA/tgt
Hunter Henry
0.36 EPA/tgt
Dalton Kincaid◄
0.58 EPA/tgt
Average
8.7% sack rate
Good◄
7.5% sack rate
Cory Durden
0.2 disrupt/gm
Deone Walker◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Christian Barmore
no 2025 data
T.J. Sanders
no 2025 data
Dre'Mont Jones
0.6 impact/gm
Greg Rousseau◄
0.7 impact/gm
Carlton Davis III
0.4 cover/gm
Dee Alford◄
0.8 cover/gm
Craig Woodson
0.3 cover/gm
Cole Bishop◄
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
LA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
SEA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Matthew Stafford◄
0.19 EPA/att
Sam Darnold
0.11 EPA/att
Kyren Williams◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Brady Russell
-0.01 EPA/tch
Puka Nacua◄
0.59 EPA/tgt
Jaxon Smith-Njigba
0.47 EPA/tgt
Colby Parkinson
0.17 EPA/tgt
AJ Barner◄
0.32 EPA/tgt
Elite◄
3.7% sack rate
Average
5.3% sack rate
Poona Ford
0.3 disrupt/gm
Byron Murphy II◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Kobie Turner
0.6 press/gm
Leonard Williams◄
0.8 press/gm
Byron Young◄
1.1 impact/gm
DeMarcus Lawrence
0.8 impact/gm
Jaylen Watson
0.4 cover/gm
Josh Jobe◄
0.6 cover/gm
Kamren Kinchens◄
0.6 cover/gm
Ty Okada
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
BAL
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
CIN
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Lamar Jackson
0.04 EPA/att
Joe Burrow◄
0.08 EPA/att
Derrick Henry◄
0.02 EPA/tch
Chase Brown
-0.04 EPA/tch
Zay Flowers◄
0.32 EPA/tgt
Ja'Marr Chase
0.19 EPA/tgt
Mark Andrews
0.02 EPA/tgt
Mike Gesicki◄
0.07 EPA/tgt
Good◄
9.6% sack rate
Good
5.3% sack rate
Travis Jones◄
0.7 disrupt/gm
Dexter Lawrence II
0.3 disrupt/gm
Calais Campbell◄
0.7 press/gm
Boye Mafe
0.2 press/gm
Roquan Smith
0.7 impact/gm
Demetrius Knight Jr.◄
0.8 impact/gm
Nate Wiggins◄
0.7 cover/gm
Dax Hill
0.5 cover/gm
Malaki Starks
0.5 cover/gm
Jordan Battle◄
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
NYJ
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
MIA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Geno Smith
-0.12 EPA/att
Malik Willis◄
0.13 EPA/att
Breece Hall
-0.04 EPA/tch
De'Von Achane◄
0.01 EPA/tch
Garrett Wilson◄
-0.02 EPA/tgt
Malik Washington
-0.10 EPA/tgt
Mason Taylor
0.12 EPA/tgt
Greg Dulcich◄
0.34 EPA/tgt
Bad
10.8% sack rate
Good◄
7.4% sack rate
Harrison Phillips◄
0.2 disrupt/gm
Jordan Phillips
0.2 disrupt/gm
Will McDonald IV◄
0.9 press/gm
Chop Robinson
no 2025 data
Jamien Sherwood
1.0 impact/gm
Jordyn Brooks◄
1.2 impact/gm
Nahshon Wright◄
0.8 cover/gm
Jason Marshall Jr.
0.3 cover/gm
Dane Belton◄
0.5 cover/gm
Dante Trader Jr.
0.2 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
CAR
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
NO
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Bryce Young
-0.03 EPA/att
Tyler Shough◄
0.00 EPA/att
Chuba Hubbard
-0.05 EPA/tch
Travis Etienne Jr.◄
-0.03 EPA/tch
Tetairoa McMillan
0.17 EPA/tgt
Chris Olave◄
0.19 EPA/tgt
Tommy Tremble
0.15 EPA/tgt
Juwan Johnson◄
0.29 EPA/tgt
Average◄
6.4% sack rate
Bad
7.7% sack rate
Lee Hunter◄
no 2025 data
Davon Godchaux
0.1 disrupt/gm
Derrick Brown◄
no 2025 data
Colby Wooden
0.2 press/gm
Bobby Okereke
0.7 impact/gm
Kaden Elliss◄
1.0 impact/gm
Mike Jackson◄
1.0 cover/gm
Kool-Aid McKinstry
0.9 cover/gm
Nick Scott
0.4 cover/gm
Justin Reid◄
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
HOU
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
IND
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
C.J. Stroud
0.08 EPA/att
Daniel Jones◄
0.11 EPA/att
David Montgomery
0.02 EPA/tch
Jonathan Taylor◄
0.07 EPA/tch
Nico Collins
0.26 EPA/tgt
Alec Pierce◄
0.49 EPA/tgt
Dalton Schultz◄
0.29 EPA/tgt
Tyler Warren
0.12 EPA/tgt
Average
5.1% sack rate
Good◄
5.0% sack rate
Tommy Togiai◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Grover Stewart
0.3 disrupt/gm
Will Anderson Jr.◄
1.2 press/gm
Laiatu Latu
0.9 press/gm
Henry To'oTo'o◄
0.8 impact/gm
Akeem Davis-Gaither
0.5 impact/gm
Kamari Lassiter◄
1.0 cover/gm
Sauce Gardner
0.5 cover/gm
Reed Blankenship
0.4 cover/gm
Cam Bynum◄
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
KC
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
LV
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Patrick Mahomes◄
0.10 EPA/att
Kirk Cousins
-0.00 EPA/att
Kenneth Walker III◄
-0.02 EPA/tch
Ashton Jeanty
-0.20 EPA/tch
Rashee Rice
0.15 EPA/tgt
Tre Tucker◄
0.18 EPA/tgt
Travis Kelce◄
0.32 EPA/tgt
Brock Bowers
0.22 EPA/tgt
Average◄
7.4% sack rate
Bad
11.1% sack rate
Khyiris Tonga
0.1 disrupt/gm
Adam Butler◄
0.3 disrupt/gm
George Karlaftis
0.8 press/gm
Jonah Laulu
no 2025 data
Drue Tranquill
0.7 impact/gm
Quay Walker◄
0.9 impact/gm
L'Jarius Sneed
0.2 cover/gm
Eric Stokes◄
0.2 cover/gm
Alohi Gilman◄
0.5 cover/gm
Jeremy Chinn
0.3 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
DET
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
GB
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Jared Goff
0.14 EPA/att
Jordan Love◄
0.18 EPA/att
Jahmyr Gibbs◄
0.04 EPA/tch
MarShawn Lloyd
no 2025 data
Amon-Ra St. Brown
0.28 EPA/tgt
Christian Watson◄
0.38 EPA/tgt
Sam LaPorta
0.54 EPA/tgt
Tucker Kraft◄
0.62 EPA/tgt
Good◄
6.3% sack rate
Average
5.6% sack rate
Tyleik Williams
0.2 disrupt/gm
Javon Hargrave◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Aidan Hutchinson◄
1.3 press/gm
Karl Brooks
no 2025 data
Derrick Barnes◄
0.7 impact/gm
Edgerrin Cooper
0.6 impact/gm
D.J. Reed
0.5 cover/gm
Keisean Nixon◄
0.7 cover/gm
Chuck Clark
0.3 cover/gm
Evan Williams◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
CLE
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
PIT
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Deshaun Watson◄
no 2025 data
Aaron Rodgers
0.04 EPA/att
Quinshon Judkins
-0.10 EPA/tch
Jaylen Warren◄
0.03 EPA/tch
Jerry Jeudy
-0.24 EPA/tgt
DK Metcalf◄
0.26 EPA/tgt
Harold Fannin Jr.
0.01 EPA/tgt
Darnell Washington◄
0.24 EPA/tgt
Bad
8.4% sack rate
Good◄
5.3% sack rate
Mason Graham
0.4 disrupt/gm
Keeanu Benton◄
0.6 disrupt/gm
Jared Verse◄
0.9 press/gm
Cameron Heyward
0.4 press/gm
Carson Schwesinger◄
0.9 impact/gm
Payton Wilson
0.7 impact/gm
Tyson Campbell◄
0.7 cover/gm
Jalen Ramsey
0.4 cover/gm
Grant Delpit
0.4 cover/gm
Jaquan Brisker◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
DAL
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
WAS
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Dak Prescott◄
0.15 EPA/att
Jayden Daniels
-0.01 EPA/att
Javonte Williams
-0.03 EPA/tch
Jacory Croskey-Merritt◄
-0.02 EPA/tch
CeeDee Lamb
0.20 EPA/tgt
Terry McLaurin◄
0.36 EPA/tgt
Jake Ferguson◄
0.16 EPA/tgt
Chig Okonkwo
0.13 EPA/tgt
Elite◄
4.7% sack rate
Good
7.3% sack rate
Otito Ogbonnia
0.3 disrupt/gm
Daron Payne◄
0.6 disrupt/gm
Quinnen Williams
no 2025 data
Tim Settle
no 2025 data
Dee Winters◄
0.8 impact/gm
Odafe Oweh
0.7 impact/gm
Cobie Durant
0.5 cover/gm
Mike Sainristil◄
0.7 cover/gm
Malik Hooker
0.2 cover/gm
Nick Cross◄
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
MIN
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
CHI
OFF Balanced · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
Kyler Murray
0.02 EPA/att
Caleb Williams◄
0.06 EPA/att
Aaron Jones Sr.
-0.04 EPA/tch
D'Andre Swift◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Justin Jefferson
-0.08 EPA/tgt
Rome Odunze◄
0.18 EPA/tgt
T.J. Hockenson
0.17 EPA/tgt
Colston Loveland◄
0.47 EPA/tgt
Bad
11.0% sack rate
Elite◄
4.0% sack rate
Caleb Banks◄
no 2025 data
Grady Jarrett
0.3 disrupt/gm
Levi Drake Rodriguez
no 2025 data
Montez Sweat◄
0.9 press/gm
Eric Wilson◄
1.1 impact/gm
Devin Bush
0.9 impact/gm
Byron Murphy Jr.◄
0.4 cover/gm
Cam Lewis
0.2 cover/gm
Joshua Metellus◄
0.6 cover/gm
Xavier Woods
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
LAC
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
DEN
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
Justin Herbert
0.02 EPA/att
Bo Nix◄
0.08 EPA/att
Omarion Hampton
-0.01 EPA/tch
J.K. Dobbins◄
-0.00 EPA/tch
Ladd McConkey
0.05 EPA/tgt
Jaylen Waddle◄
0.27 EPA/tgt
Charlie Kolar◄
0.15 EPA/tgt
Evan Engram
0.04 EPA/tgt
Bad
9.5% sack rate
Elite◄
3.6% sack rate
Dalvin Tomlinson
no 2025 data
D.J. Jones◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Teair Tart
no 2025 data
Zach Allen◄
1.1 press/gm
Daiyan Henley
0.8 impact/gm
Nik Bonitto◄
1.2 impact/gm
Cam Hart
0.5 cover/gm
Riley Moss◄
0.8 cover/gm
Derwin James Jr.◄
0.7 cover/gm
Talanoa Hufanga
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
TB
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
ATL
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Baker Mayfield
0.00 EPA/att
Michael Penix Jr.◄
0.01 EPA/att
Bucky Irving
-0.10 EPA/tch
Bijan Robinson◄
0.03 EPA/tch
Emeka Egbuka
0.05 EPA/tgt
Drake London◄
0.18 EPA/tgt
Cade Otton
0.03 EPA/tgt
Kyle Pitts Sr.◄
0.18 EPA/tgt
Average
6.4% sack rate
Elite◄
4.6% sack rate
Vita Vea◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Gervon Dexter Sr.
0.7 disrupt/gm
Calijah Kancey◄
no 2025 data
Brandon Dorlus
0.8 press/gm
Yaya Diaby◄
0.9 impact/gm
Divine Deablo
0.7 impact/gm
Jacob Parrish
0.4 cover/gm
A.J. Terrell Jr.◄
0.5 cover/gm
Antoine Winfield Jr.
0.6 cover/gm
Jessie Bates III◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
Winner accuracy by grade, 1070 games. A high grade means a clearer mismatch — but the books know it too, so higher accuracy here does not mean a betting edge.
All validated trends · out-of-sample (2020–2026)
NFL · Members
The full board, confidence ratings, and daily plays — plus the complete track record. New plays every morning. The track record and featured picks above stay free.
NFL Pass
$9.99/mo
Just NFL
All-AccessBest value
$29.99/mo
All 5 sports
Secure checkout via Stripe. Cancel anytime. 21+. Bet responsibly.
