We simulate every NFL game on opponent-adjusted net EPA — offense and defense on both sides set the projected margin, scoring rates set the total — then post only the handful we have the most conviction in. Every posted game gets a grade and a projected score, and every one is graded against the real result.
Graded games
75.9%
the games we post · B+ or better
Full slate
62.5%
every game · n=1070
Market
67.4%
closing line · it’s better
Margin error
10.5
points, full slate
Accuracy is measured against the actual final score — did we pick the winner, and how many points off was the margin — not against the betting line. Across 2019–2025 the simulator calls 62.5% of all games straight up. The market’s closing line calls 67.4% — the NFL is the most efficient market in sports, so the full slate is worse than the market and we say so. It is a prediction tool, not a betting edge: it does not beat the spread. Analysis and entertainment, 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.
Board went 1-1 · full slate 12-3 straight up
Our 2 highest-conviction calls out of 15 games this week. We post at most 6, and nothing below a B+ — a thin week posts fewer rather than padding the board.
DEN
KC
17
26
Offense
KC
Defense
DEN
Called it ✓
DEN
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
KC
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread · heavy personnel
Every game we simulated this week, highest conviction first. The board above is only the ones that cleared B+— here’s the whole week so nothing’s hidden.
DEN
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
KC
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Bo Nix
0.08 EPA/att
Patrick Mahomes◄
The grade is our conviction in our own call — how big the projected margin is. Here is how each grade actually performed across 2019–2025:
Net EPA — opponent-adjusted expected points added on offense and defense, both sides of the ball — sets the projected margin. Scoring rates set the total. Ratings are computed as of that week’s kickoff, using only games already played, so nothing is graded with hindsight. Early in the season a team carries its prior-year rating until it has enough games to stand on its own.
It does not beat the spread. The NFL market is the sharpest in sports. We publish this because the projection and the matchup are interesting and we grade ourselves honestly against the real score — not because it prints money.
Also on our board
Separate from the simulator: situational trends mined from 1999–2026 seasons and validated out-of-sample. Only the ones that actually hold up.
The Sizzlin NFL Simulator is analysis and entertainment — not betting advice or a guaranteed outcome. 21+. 1-800-GAMBLER.
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Bo Nix
0.08 EPA/att
Patrick Mahomes◄
0.10 EPA/att
J.K. Dobbins◄
-0.00 EPA/tch
Kenneth Walker III
-0.02 EPA/tch
Jaylen Waddle◄
0.27 EPA/tgt
Rashee Rice
0.15 EPA/tgt
Evan Engram
0.04 EPA/tgt
Travis Kelce◄
0.32 EPA/tgt
Elite◄
3.6% sack rate
Average
7.4% sack rate
D.J. Jones◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Khyiris Tonga
0.1 disrupt/gm
Zach Allen◄
1.1 press/gm
George Karlaftis
0.8 press/gm
Nik Bonitto◄
1.2 impact/gm
Drue Tranquill
0.7 impact/gm
Riley Moss◄
0.8 cover/gm
L'Jarius Sneed
0.2 cover/gm
Talanoa Hufanga◄
0.7 cover/gm
Alohi Gilman
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
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0.10 EPA/att
J.K. Dobbins◄
-0.00 EPA/tch
Kenneth Walker III
-0.02 EPA/tch
Jaylen Waddle◄
0.27 EPA/tgt
Rashee Rice
0.15 EPA/tgt
Evan Engram
0.04 EPA/tgt
Travis Kelce◄
0.32 EPA/tgt
Elite◄
3.6% sack rate
Average
7.4% sack rate
D.J. Jones◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Khyiris Tonga
0.1 disrupt/gm
Zach Allen◄
1.1 press/gm
George Karlaftis
0.8 press/gm
Nik Bonitto◄
1.2 impact/gm
Drue Tranquill
0.7 impact/gm
Riley Moss◄
0.8 cover/gm
L'Jarius Sneed
0.2 cover/gm
Talanoa Hufanga◄
0.7 cover/gm
Alohi Gilman
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
NO
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
PHI
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · four-man rush
Tyler Shough
0.00 EPA/att
Jalen Hurts◄
0.05 EPA/att
Travis Etienne Jr.◄
-0.03 EPA/tch
Saquon Barkley
-0.08 EPA/tch
Chris Olave
0.19 EPA/tgt
DeVonta Smith◄
0.38 EPA/tgt
Juwan Johnson
0.29 EPA/tgt
Dallas Goedert◄
0.36 EPA/tgt
Bad
7.7% sack rate
Average◄
6.6% sack rate
Davon Godchaux
0.1 disrupt/gm
Average◄
no data
Colby Wooden
0.2 press/gm
Jalen Carter◄
no 2025 data
Kaden Elliss◄
1.0 impact/gm
Zack Baun
1.0 impact/gm
Kool-Aid McKinstry◄
0.9 cover/gm
Quinyon Mitchell
0.7 cover/gm
Justin Reid◄
0.5 cover/gm
Andrew Mukuba
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
IND
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
NYG
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Daniel Jones◄
0.11 EPA/att
Jaxson Dart
0.01 EPA/att
Jonathan Taylor◄
0.07 EPA/tch
Cam Skattebo
-0.05 EPA/tch
Alec Pierce◄
0.49 EPA/tgt
Malik Nabers
0.04 EPA/tgt
Tyler Warren◄
0.12 EPA/tgt
Isaiah Likely
0.10 EPA/tgt
Good◄
5.0% sack rate
Bad
8.4% sack rate
Grover Stewart◄
0.3 disrupt/gm
DJ Reader
0.1 disrupt/gm
Laiatu Latu◄
0.9 press/gm
Shelby Harris
0.2 press/gm
Akeem Davis-Gaither
0.5 impact/gm
Brian Burns◄
1.8 impact/gm
Sauce Gardner
0.5 cover/gm
Dru Phillips◄
0.6 cover/gm
Cam Bynum◄
0.7 cover/gm
Tyler Nubin
0.3 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
PIT
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
BAL
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Aaron Rodgers◄
0.04 EPA/att
Lamar Jackson
0.04 EPA/att
Jaylen Warren◄
0.03 EPA/tch
Derrick Henry
0.02 EPA/tch
DK Metcalf
0.26 EPA/tgt
Zay Flowers◄
0.32 EPA/tgt
Darnell Washington◄
0.24 EPA/tgt
Mark Andrews
0.02 EPA/tgt
Good
5.3% sack rate
Good◄
9.6% sack rate
Keeanu Benton
0.6 disrupt/gm
Travis Jones◄
0.7 disrupt/gm
Cameron Heyward
0.4 press/gm
Calais Campbell◄
0.7 press/gm
Payton Wilson◄
0.7 impact/gm
Roquan Smith
0.7 impact/gm
Jalen Ramsey
0.4 cover/gm
Nate Wiggins◄
0.7 cover/gm
Jaquan Brisker◄
0.6 cover/gm
Malaki Starks
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
LA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
LAC
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Matthew Stafford◄
0.19 EPA/att
Justin Herbert
0.02 EPA/att
Kyren Williams◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Omarion Hampton
-0.01 EPA/tch
Puka Nacua◄
0.59 EPA/tgt
Ladd McConkey
0.05 EPA/tgt
Colby Parkinson◄
0.17 EPA/tgt
Charlie Kolar
0.15 EPA/tgt
Elite◄
3.7% sack rate
Bad
9.5% sack rate
Poona Ford
0.3 disrupt/gm
Dalvin Tomlinson◄
no 2025 data
Kobie Turner
0.6 press/gm
Teair Tart◄
no 2025 data
Byron Young◄
1.1 impact/gm
Daiyan Henley
0.8 impact/gm
Jaylen Watson
0.4 cover/gm
Cam Hart◄
0.5 cover/gm
Kamren Kinchens
0.6 cover/gm
Derwin James Jr.◄
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
ARI
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
ATL
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Jacoby Brissett
-0.00 EPA/att
Michael Penix Jr.◄
0.01 EPA/att
Jeremiyah Love
no 2025 data
Bijan Robinson◄
0.03 EPA/tch
Marvin Harrison Jr.◄
0.31 EPA/tgt
Drake London
0.18 EPA/tgt
Trey McBride◄
0.39 EPA/tgt
Kyle Pitts Sr.
0.18 EPA/tgt
Bad
8.3% sack rate
Elite◄
4.6% sack rate
Roy Lopez
0.4 disrupt/gm
Gervon Dexter Sr.◄
0.7 disrupt/gm
Josh Sweat◄
no 2025 data
Brandon Dorlus
0.8 press/gm
Jack Gibbens
0.7 impact/gm
Divine Deablo◄
0.7 impact/gm
Denzel Burke◄
0.7 cover/gm
A.J. Terrell Jr.
0.5 cover/gm
Budda Baker
0.5 cover/gm
Jessie Bates III◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
CHI
OFF Balanced · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
DET
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
Caleb Williams
0.06 EPA/att
Jared Goff◄
0.14 EPA/att
D'Andre Swift◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Jahmyr Gibbs
0.04 EPA/tch
Rome Odunze
0.18 EPA/tgt
Amon-Ra St. Brown◄
0.28 EPA/tgt
Colston Loveland
0.47 EPA/tgt
Sam LaPorta◄
0.54 EPA/tgt
Elite◄
4.0% sack rate
Good
6.3% sack rate
Grady Jarrett◄
0.3 disrupt/gm
Tyleik Williams
0.2 disrupt/gm
Montez Sweat
0.9 press/gm
Aidan Hutchinson◄
1.3 press/gm
Devin Bush◄
0.9 impact/gm
Derrick Barnes
0.7 impact/gm
Cam Lewis
0.2 cover/gm
D.J. Reed◄
0.5 cover/gm
Xavier Woods◄
0.4 cover/gm
Chuck Clark
0.3 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
MIA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
NE
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Malik Willis
0.13 EPA/att
Drake Maye◄
0.25 EPA/att
De'Von Achane◄
0.01 EPA/tch
Rhamondre Stevenson
-0.02 EPA/tch
Malik Washington
-0.10 EPA/tgt
Romeo Doubs◄
0.30 EPA/tgt
Greg Dulcich
0.34 EPA/tgt
Hunter Henry◄
0.36 EPA/tgt
Good◄
7.4% sack rate
Average
8.7% sack rate
Jordan Phillips
0.2 disrupt/gm
Cory Durden◄
0.2 disrupt/gm
Chop Robinson
no 2025 data
Christian Barmore
no 2025 data
Jordyn Brooks◄
1.2 impact/gm
Dre'Mont Jones
0.6 impact/gm
Jason Marshall Jr.
0.3 cover/gm
Carlton Davis III◄
0.4 cover/gm
Dante Trader Jr.
0.2 cover/gm
Craig Woodson◄
0.3 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
CAR
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
TB
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Bryce Young
-0.03 EPA/att
Baker Mayfield◄
0.00 EPA/att
Chuba Hubbard◄
-0.05 EPA/tch
Bucky Irving
-0.10 EPA/tch
Tetairoa McMillan◄
0.17 EPA/tgt
Emeka Egbuka
0.05 EPA/tgt
Tommy Tremble◄
0.15 EPA/tgt
Cade Otton
0.03 EPA/tgt
Average◄
6.4% sack rate
Average
6.4% sack rate
Lee Hunter
no 2025 data
Vita Vea◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Derrick Brown
no 2025 data
Calijah Kancey
no 2025 data
Bobby Okereke
0.7 impact/gm
Yaya Diaby◄
0.9 impact/gm
Mike Jackson◄
1.0 cover/gm
Jacob Parrish
0.4 cover/gm
Nick Scott
0.4 cover/gm
Antoine Winfield Jr.◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
MIN
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
GB
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Kyler Murray
0.02 EPA/att
Jordan Love◄
0.18 EPA/att
Aaron Jones Sr.
-0.04 EPA/tch
MarShawn Lloyd◄
no 2025 data
Justin Jefferson
-0.08 EPA/tgt
Christian Watson◄
0.38 EPA/tgt
T.J. Hockenson
0.17 EPA/tgt
Tucker Kraft◄
0.62 EPA/tgt
Bad
11.0% sack rate
Average◄
5.6% sack rate
Caleb Banks
no 2025 data
Javon Hargrave◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Levi Drake Rodriguez
no 2025 data
Karl Brooks
no 2025 data
Eric Wilson◄
1.1 impact/gm
Edgerrin Cooper
0.6 impact/gm
Byron Murphy Jr.
0.4 cover/gm
Keisean Nixon◄
0.7 cover/gm
Joshua Metellus
0.6 cover/gm
Evan Williams◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
CLE
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
WAS
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Deshaun Watson◄
no 2025 data
Jayden Daniels
-0.01 EPA/att
Quinshon Judkins
-0.10 EPA/tch
Jacory Croskey-Merritt◄
-0.02 EPA/tch
Jerry Jeudy
-0.24 EPA/tgt
Terry McLaurin◄
0.36 EPA/tgt
Harold Fannin Jr.
0.01 EPA/tgt
Chig Okonkwo◄
0.13 EPA/tgt
Bad
8.4% sack rate
Good◄
7.3% sack rate
Mason Graham
0.4 disrupt/gm
Daron Payne◄
0.6 disrupt/gm
Jared Verse◄
0.9 press/gm
Tim Settle
no 2025 data
Carson Schwesinger◄
0.9 impact/gm
Odafe Oweh
0.7 impact/gm
Tyson Campbell
0.7 cover/gm
Mike Sainristil
0.7 cover/gm
Grant Delpit
0.4 cover/gm
Nick Cross◄
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
JAX
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
HOU
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Trevor Lawrence
0.05 EPA/att
C.J. Stroud◄
0.08 EPA/att
Bhayshul Tuten
-0.03 EPA/tch
David Montgomery◄
0.02 EPA/tch
Brian Thomas Jr.
0.14 EPA/tgt
Nico Collins◄
0.26 EPA/tgt
Brenton Strange◄
0.40 EPA/tgt
Dalton Schultz
0.29 EPA/tgt
Bad
6.8% sack rate
Average◄
5.1% sack rate
DaVon Hamilton
0.2 disrupt/gm
Tommy Togiai◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Josh Hines-Allen
1.0 press/gm
Will Anderson Jr.◄
1.2 press/gm
Foyesade Oluokun◄
0.9 impact/gm
Henry To'oTo'o
0.8 impact/gm
Montaric Brown
0.7 cover/gm
Kamari Lassiter◄
1.0 cover/gm
Antonio Johnson◄
0.8 cover/gm
Reed Blankenship
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
SF
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
LV
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Brock Purdy◄
0.13 EPA/att
Kirk Cousins
-0.00 EPA/att
Christian McCaffrey◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Ashton Jeanty
-0.20 EPA/tch
Mike Evans
0.06 EPA/tgt
Tre Tucker◄
0.18 EPA/tgt
George Kittle◄
0.53 EPA/tgt
Brock Bowers
0.22 EPA/tgt
Average◄
4.5% sack rate
Bad
11.1% sack rate
Osa Odighizuwa◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Adam Butler
0.3 disrupt/gm
Keion White
0.2 press/gm
Jonah Laulu◄
no 2025 data
Luke Gifford
0.1 impact/gm
Quay Walker◄
0.9 impact/gm
Deommodore Lenoir◄
0.3 cover/gm
Eric Stokes
0.2 cover/gm
Ji'Ayir Brown◄
0.5 cover/gm
Jeremy Chinn
0.3 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
NYJ
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
SEA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Geno Smith
-0.12 EPA/att
Sam Darnold◄
0.11 EPA/att
Breece Hall
-0.04 EPA/tch
Brady Russell◄
-0.01 EPA/tch
Garrett Wilson
-0.02 EPA/tgt
Jaxon Smith-Njigba◄
0.47 EPA/tgt
Mason Taylor
0.12 EPA/tgt
AJ Barner◄
0.32 EPA/tgt
Bad
10.8% sack rate
Average◄
5.3% sack rate
Harrison Phillips
0.2 disrupt/gm
Byron Murphy II◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Will McDonald IV◄
0.9 press/gm
Leonard Williams
0.8 press/gm
Jamien Sherwood◄
1.0 impact/gm
DeMarcus Lawrence
0.8 impact/gm
Nahshon Wright◄
0.8 cover/gm
Josh Jobe
0.6 cover/gm
Dane Belton
0.5 cover/gm
Ty Okada◄
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
DAL
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
TEN
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Dak Prescott◄
0.15 EPA/att
Cam Ward
-0.15 EPA/att
Javonte Williams◄
-0.03 EPA/tch
Tony Pollard
-0.10 EPA/tch
CeeDee Lamb◄
0.20 EPA/tgt
Carnell Tate
no 2025 data
Jake Ferguson◄
0.16 EPA/tgt
Gunnar Helm
0.05 EPA/tgt
Elite◄
4.7% sack rate
Bad
8.9% sack rate
Otito Ogbonnia
0.3 disrupt/gm
Jeffery Simmons◄
1.5 disrupt/gm
Quinnen Williams◄
no 2025 data
Jermaine Johnson II
0.3 press/gm
Dee Winters◄
0.8 impact/gm
Cody Barton
0.7 impact/gm
Cobie Durant
0.5 cover/gm
Alontae Taylor◄
0.6 cover/gm
Malik Hooker
0.2 cover/gm
Amani Hooker◄
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
Winner accuracy by grade, 1070 games. A high grade means a clearer mismatch — but the books know it too, so higher accuracy here does not mean a betting edge.
All validated trends · out-of-sample (2020–2026)
NFL · Members
The full board, confidence ratings, and daily plays — plus the complete track record. New plays every morning. The track record and featured picks above stay free.
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All 5 sports
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