We simulate every NFL game on opponent-adjusted net EPA — offense and defense on both sides set the projected margin, scoring rates set the total — then post only the handful we have the most conviction in. Every posted game gets a grade and a projected score, and every one is graded against the real result.
Graded games
75.9%
the games we post · B+ or better
Full slate
62.5%
every game · n=1070
Market
67.4%
closing line · it’s better
Margin error
10.5
points, full slate
Accuracy is measured against the actual final score — did we pick the winner, and how many points off was the margin — not against the betting line. Across 2019–2025 the simulator calls 62.5% of all games straight up. The market’s closing line calls 67.4% — the NFL is the most efficient market in sports, so the full slate is worse than the market and we say so. It is a prediction tool, not a betting edge: it does not beat the spread. Analysis and entertainment, 21+, 1-800-GAMBLER.
Board went 1-0 · full slate 9-7 straight up
Our 1 highest-conviction calls out of 16 games this week. We post at most 6, and nothing below a B+ — a thin week posts fewer rather than padding the board.
SEA
KC
22
30
Offense
KC
Defense
KC
Called it ✓
SEA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
KC
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Every game we simulated this week, highest conviction first. The board above is only the ones that cleared B+— here’s the whole week so nothing’s hidden.
SEA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
KC
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Sam Darnold◄
0.11 EPA/att
Patrick Mahomes
The grade is our conviction in our own call — how big the projected margin is. Here is how each grade actually performed across 2019–2025:
Net EPA — opponent-adjusted expected points added on offense and defense, both sides of the ball — sets the projected margin. Scoring rates set the total. Ratings are computed as of that week’s kickoff, using only games already played, so nothing is graded with hindsight. Early in the season a team carries its prior-year rating until it has enough games to stand on its own.
It does not beat the spread. The NFL market is the sharpest in sports. We publish this because the projection and the matchup are interesting and we grade ourselves honestly against the real score — not because it prints money.
Also on our board
Separate from the simulator: situational trends mined from 1999–2026 seasons and validated out-of-sample. Only the ones that actually hold up.
The Sizzlin NFL Simulator is analysis and entertainment — not betting advice or a guaranteed outcome. 21+. 1-800-GAMBLER.
Sam Darnold◄
0.11 EPA/att
Patrick Mahomes
0.10 EPA/att
Brady Russell◄
-0.01 EPA/tch
Kenneth Walker III
-0.02 EPA/tch
Jaxon Smith-Njigba◄
0.47 EPA/tgt
Rashee Rice
0.15 EPA/tgt
AJ Barner◄
0.32 EPA/tgt
Travis Kelce
0.32 EPA/tgt
Average◄
5.3% sack rate
Average
7.4% sack rate
Byron Murphy II◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Khyiris Tonga
0.1 disrupt/gm
Leonard Williams
0.8 press/gm
George Karlaftis
0.8 press/gm
DeMarcus Lawrence◄
0.8 impact/gm
Drue Tranquill
0.7 impact/gm
Josh Jobe◄
0.6 cover/gm
L'Jarius Sneed
0.2 cover/gm
Ty Okada
0.5 cover/gm
Alohi Gilman◄
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
0.10 EPA/att
Brady Russell◄
-0.01 EPA/tch
Kenneth Walker III
-0.02 EPA/tch
Jaxon Smith-Njigba◄
0.47 EPA/tgt
Rashee Rice
0.15 EPA/tgt
AJ Barner◄
0.32 EPA/tgt
Travis Kelce
0.32 EPA/tgt
Average◄
5.3% sack rate
Average
7.4% sack rate
Byron Murphy II◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Khyiris Tonga
0.1 disrupt/gm
Leonard Williams
0.8 press/gm
George Karlaftis
0.8 press/gm
DeMarcus Lawrence◄
0.8 impact/gm
Drue Tranquill
0.7 impact/gm
Josh Jobe◄
0.6 cover/gm
L'Jarius Sneed
0.2 cover/gm
Ty Okada
0.5 cover/gm
Alohi Gilman◄
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
WAS
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
SF
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Jayden Daniels
-0.01 EPA/att
Brock Purdy◄
0.13 EPA/att
Jacory Croskey-Merritt
-0.02 EPA/tch
Christian McCaffrey◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Terry McLaurin◄
0.36 EPA/tgt
Mike Evans
0.06 EPA/tgt
Chig Okonkwo
0.13 EPA/tgt
George Kittle◄
0.53 EPA/tgt
Good◄
7.3% sack rate
Average
4.5% sack rate
Daron Payne
0.6 disrupt/gm
Osa Odighizuwa◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Tim Settle◄
no 2025 data
Keion White
0.2 press/gm
Odafe Oweh◄
0.7 impact/gm
Luke Gifford
0.1 impact/gm
Mike Sainristil◄
0.7 cover/gm
Deommodore Lenoir
0.3 cover/gm
Nick Cross
0.5 cover/gm
Ji'Ayir Brown◄
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
HOU
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
TEN
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
C.J. Stroud◄
0.08 EPA/att
Cam Ward
-0.15 EPA/att
David Montgomery◄
0.02 EPA/tch
Tony Pollard
-0.10 EPA/tch
Nico Collins◄
0.26 EPA/tgt
Carnell Tate
no 2025 data
Dalton Schultz◄
0.29 EPA/tgt
Gunnar Helm
0.05 EPA/tgt
Average◄
5.1% sack rate
Bad
8.9% sack rate
Tommy Togiai
0.4 disrupt/gm
Jeffery Simmons◄
1.5 disrupt/gm
Will Anderson Jr.◄
1.2 press/gm
Jermaine Johnson II
0.3 press/gm
Henry To'oTo'o◄
0.8 impact/gm
Cody Barton
0.7 impact/gm
Kamari Lassiter◄
1.0 cover/gm
Alontae Taylor
0.6 cover/gm
Reed Blankenship
0.4 cover/gm
Amani Hooker◄
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
ATL
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
BAL
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Michael Penix Jr.
0.01 EPA/att
Lamar Jackson◄
0.04 EPA/att
Bijan Robinson◄
0.03 EPA/tch
Derrick Henry
0.02 EPA/tch
Drake London
0.18 EPA/tgt
Zay Flowers◄
0.32 EPA/tgt
Kyle Pitts Sr.◄
0.18 EPA/tgt
Mark Andrews
0.02 EPA/tgt
Elite◄
4.6% sack rate
Good
9.6% sack rate
Gervon Dexter Sr.
0.7 disrupt/gm
Travis Jones◄
0.7 disrupt/gm
Brandon Dorlus◄
0.8 press/gm
Calais Campbell
0.7 press/gm
Divine Deablo◄
0.7 impact/gm
Roquan Smith
0.7 impact/gm
A.J. Terrell Jr.
0.5 cover/gm
Nate Wiggins◄
0.7 cover/gm
Jessie Bates III◄
0.6 cover/gm
Malaki Starks
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
GB
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
MIA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Jordan Love◄
0.18 EPA/att
Malik Willis
0.13 EPA/att
MarShawn Lloyd
no 2025 data
De'Von Achane◄
0.01 EPA/tch
Christian Watson◄
0.38 EPA/tgt
Malik Washington
-0.10 EPA/tgt
Tucker Kraft◄
0.62 EPA/tgt
Greg Dulcich
0.34 EPA/tgt
Average
5.6% sack rate
Good◄
7.4% sack rate
Javon Hargrave◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Jordan Phillips
0.2 disrupt/gm
Karl Brooks
no 2025 data
Chop Robinson
no 2025 data
Edgerrin Cooper
0.6 impact/gm
Jordyn Brooks◄
1.2 impact/gm
Keisean Nixon◄
0.7 cover/gm
Jason Marshall Jr.
0.3 cover/gm
Evan Williams◄
0.6 cover/gm
Dante Trader Jr.
0.2 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
NYG
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
MIN
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Jaxson Dart
0.01 EPA/att
Kyler Murray◄
0.02 EPA/att
Cam Skattebo
-0.05 EPA/tch
Aaron Jones Sr.◄
-0.04 EPA/tch
Malik Nabers◄
0.04 EPA/tgt
Justin Jefferson
-0.08 EPA/tgt
Isaiah Likely
0.10 EPA/tgt
T.J. Hockenson◄
0.17 EPA/tgt
Bad◄
8.4% sack rate
Bad
11.0% sack rate
DJ Reader
0.1 disrupt/gm
Caleb Banks◄
no 2025 data
Shelby Harris
0.2 press/gm
Levi Drake Rodriguez◄
no 2025 data
Brian Burns◄
1.8 impact/gm
Eric Wilson
1.1 impact/gm
Dru Phillips◄
0.6 cover/gm
Byron Murphy Jr.
0.4 cover/gm
Tyler Nubin
0.3 cover/gm
Joshua Metellus◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
DET
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
CAR
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Jared Goff◄
0.14 EPA/att
Bryce Young
-0.03 EPA/att
Jahmyr Gibbs◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Chuba Hubbard
-0.05 EPA/tch
Amon-Ra St. Brown◄
0.28 EPA/tgt
Tetairoa McMillan
0.17 EPA/tgt
Sam LaPorta◄
0.54 EPA/tgt
Tommy Tremble
0.15 EPA/tgt
Good◄
6.3% sack rate
Average
6.4% sack rate
Tyleik Williams
0.2 disrupt/gm
Lee Hunter◄
no 2025 data
Aidan Hutchinson◄
1.3 press/gm
Derrick Brown
no 2025 data
Derrick Barnes
0.7 impact/gm
Bobby Okereke◄
0.7 impact/gm
D.J. Reed
0.5 cover/gm
Mike Jackson◄
1.0 cover/gm
Chuck Clark
0.3 cover/gm
Nick Scott◄
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
NO
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
CLE
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Tyler Shough
0.00 EPA/att
Deshaun Watson◄
no 2025 data
Travis Etienne Jr.◄
-0.03 EPA/tch
Quinshon Judkins
-0.10 EPA/tch
Chris Olave◄
0.19 EPA/tgt
Jerry Jeudy
-0.24 EPA/tgt
Juwan Johnson◄
0.29 EPA/tgt
Harold Fannin Jr.
0.01 EPA/tgt
Bad
7.7% sack rate
Bad◄
8.4% sack rate
Davon Godchaux
0.1 disrupt/gm
Mason Graham◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Colby Wooden
0.2 press/gm
Jared Verse◄
0.9 press/gm
Kaden Elliss◄
1.0 impact/gm
Carson Schwesinger
0.9 impact/gm
Kool-Aid McKinstry◄
0.9 cover/gm
Tyson Campbell
0.7 cover/gm
Justin Reid◄
0.5 cover/gm
Grant Delpit
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
JAX
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
NYJ
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Trevor Lawrence◄
0.05 EPA/att
Geno Smith
-0.12 EPA/att
Bhayshul Tuten◄
-0.03 EPA/tch
Breece Hall
-0.04 EPA/tch
Brian Thomas Jr.◄
0.14 EPA/tgt
Garrett Wilson
-0.02 EPA/tgt
Brenton Strange◄
0.40 EPA/tgt
Mason Taylor
0.12 EPA/tgt
Bad◄
6.8% sack rate
Bad
10.8% sack rate
DaVon Hamilton
0.2 disrupt/gm
Harrison Phillips◄
0.2 disrupt/gm
Josh Hines-Allen◄
1.0 press/gm
Will McDonald IV
0.9 press/gm
Foyesade Oluokun
0.9 impact/gm
Jamien Sherwood◄
1.0 impact/gm
Montaric Brown
0.7 cover/gm
Nahshon Wright◄
0.8 cover/gm
Antonio Johnson◄
0.8 cover/gm
Dane Belton
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
CIN
OFF Pass-heavy · shotgun spread · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
NE
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Joe Burrow
0.08 EPA/att
Drake Maye◄
0.25 EPA/att
Chase Brown
-0.04 EPA/tch
Rhamondre Stevenson◄
-0.02 EPA/tch
Ja'Marr Chase
0.19 EPA/tgt
Romeo Doubs◄
0.30 EPA/tgt
Mike Gesicki
0.07 EPA/tgt
Hunter Henry◄
0.36 EPA/tgt
Good◄
5.3% sack rate
Average
8.7% sack rate
Dexter Lawrence II◄
0.3 disrupt/gm
Cory Durden
0.2 disrupt/gm
Boye Mafe
0.2 press/gm
Christian Barmore◄
no 2025 data
Demetrius Knight Jr.◄
0.8 impact/gm
Dre'Mont Jones
0.6 impact/gm
Dax Hill◄
0.5 cover/gm
Carlton Davis III
0.4 cover/gm
Jordan Battle◄
0.7 cover/gm
Craig Woodson
0.3 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
LV
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
PIT
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
Kirk Cousins
-0.00 EPA/att
Aaron Rodgers◄
0.04 EPA/att
Ashton Jeanty
-0.20 EPA/tch
Jaylen Warren◄
0.03 EPA/tch
Tre Tucker
0.18 EPA/tgt
DK Metcalf◄
0.26 EPA/tgt
Brock Bowers
0.22 EPA/tgt
Darnell Washington◄
0.24 EPA/tgt
Bad
11.1% sack rate
Good◄
5.3% sack rate
Adam Butler
0.3 disrupt/gm
Keeanu Benton◄
0.6 disrupt/gm
Jonah Laulu◄
no 2025 data
Cameron Heyward
0.4 press/gm
Quay Walker◄
0.9 impact/gm
Payton Wilson
0.7 impact/gm
Eric Stokes
0.2 cover/gm
Jalen Ramsey◄
0.4 cover/gm
Jeremy Chinn
0.3 cover/gm
Jaquan Brisker◄
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
BUF
OFF Run-heavy · under-center
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
CHI
OFF Balanced · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
Josh Allen◄
0.11 EPA/att
Caleb Williams
0.06 EPA/att
James Cook III
0.04 EPA/tch
D'Andre Swift◄
0.04 EPA/tch
DJ Moore
0.12 EPA/tgt
Rome Odunze◄
0.18 EPA/tgt
Dalton Kincaid◄
0.58 EPA/tgt
Colston Loveland
0.47 EPA/tgt
Good
7.5% sack rate
Elite◄
4.0% sack rate
Deone Walker◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Grady Jarrett
0.3 disrupt/gm
T.J. Sanders
no 2025 data
Montez Sweat◄
0.9 press/gm
Greg Rousseau
0.7 impact/gm
Devin Bush◄
0.9 impact/gm
Dee Alford◄
0.8 cover/gm
Cam Lewis
0.2 cover/gm
Cole Bishop◄
0.7 cover/gm
Xavier Woods
0.4 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
LAC
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
IND
OFF Balanced · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Justin Herbert
0.02 EPA/att
Daniel Jones◄
0.11 EPA/att
Omarion Hampton
-0.01 EPA/tch
Jonathan Taylor◄
0.07 EPA/tch
Ladd McConkey
0.05 EPA/tgt
Alec Pierce◄
0.49 EPA/tgt
Charlie Kolar◄
0.15 EPA/tgt
Tyler Warren
0.12 EPA/tgt
Bad
9.5% sack rate
Good◄
5.0% sack rate
Dalvin Tomlinson◄
no 2025 data
Grover Stewart
0.3 disrupt/gm
Teair Tart
no 2025 data
Laiatu Latu◄
0.9 press/gm
Daiyan Henley◄
0.8 impact/gm
Akeem Davis-Gaither
0.5 impact/gm
Cam Hart◄
0.5 cover/gm
Sauce Gardner
0.5 cover/gm
Derwin James Jr.
0.7 cover/gm
Cam Bynum◄
0.7 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
TB
OFF Balanced · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · blitz-heavy
ARI
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Baker Mayfield◄
0.00 EPA/att
Jacoby Brissett
-0.00 EPA/att
Bucky Irving
-0.10 EPA/tch
Jeremiyah Love◄
no 2025 data
Emeka Egbuka
0.05 EPA/tgt
Marvin Harrison Jr.◄
0.31 EPA/tgt
Cade Otton
0.03 EPA/tgt
Trey McBride◄
0.39 EPA/tgt
Average◄
6.4% sack rate
Bad
8.3% sack rate
Vita Vea◄
0.8 disrupt/gm
Roy Lopez
0.4 disrupt/gm
Calijah Kancey
no 2025 data
Josh Sweat
no 2025 data
Yaya Diaby◄
0.9 impact/gm
Jack Gibbens
0.7 impact/gm
Jacob Parrish
0.4 cover/gm
Denzel Burke◄
0.7 cover/gm
Antoine Winfield Jr.◄
0.6 cover/gm
Budda Baker
0.5 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
DEN
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Balanced coverage · blitz-heavy
LA
OFF Run-heavy · under-center · heavy personnel
DEF Zone-heavy · four-man rush
Bo Nix
0.08 EPA/att
Matthew Stafford◄
0.19 EPA/att
J.K. Dobbins
-0.00 EPA/tch
Kyren Williams◄
0.04 EPA/tch
Jaylen Waddle
0.27 EPA/tgt
Puka Nacua◄
0.59 EPA/tgt
Evan Engram
0.04 EPA/tgt
Colby Parkinson◄
0.17 EPA/tgt
Elite
3.6% sack rate
Elite◄
3.7% sack rate
D.J. Jones◄
0.4 disrupt/gm
Poona Ford
0.3 disrupt/gm
Zach Allen◄
1.1 press/gm
Kobie Turner
0.6 press/gm
Nik Bonitto◄
1.2 impact/gm
Byron Young
1.1 impact/gm
Riley Moss◄
0.8 cover/gm
Jaylen Watson
0.4 cover/gm
Talanoa Hufanga◄
0.7 cover/gm
Kamren Kinchens
0.6 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
PHI
OFF Run-heavy · mixed sets · heavy personnel
DEF Balanced coverage · four-man rush
DAL
OFF Pass-heavy · mixed sets
DEF Zone-heavy · moderate pressure
Jalen Hurts
0.05 EPA/att
Dak Prescott◄
0.15 EPA/att
Saquon Barkley
-0.08 EPA/tch
Javonte Williams◄
-0.03 EPA/tch
DeVonta Smith◄
0.38 EPA/tgt
CeeDee Lamb
0.20 EPA/tgt
Dallas Goedert◄
0.36 EPA/tgt
Jake Ferguson
0.16 EPA/tgt
Average
6.6% sack rate
Elite◄
4.7% sack rate
Average◄
no data
Otito Ogbonnia
0.3 disrupt/gm
Jalen Carter
no 2025 data
Quinnen Williams
no 2025 data
Zack Baun◄
1.0 impact/gm
Dee Winters
0.8 impact/gm
Quinyon Mitchell◄
0.7 cover/gm
Cobie Durant
0.5 cover/gm
Andrew Mukuba◄
0.4 cover/gm
Malik Hooker
0.2 cover/gm
Grades are percentiles against the league last season (2025). QB/RB/WR/TE grade the team’s primary starter on his own EPA production; the six marked unit have no public per-player data, so they grade the unit’s production (pass rush, coverage, sack rate) rather than individuals. Not PFF grades.
Winner accuracy by grade, 1070 games. A high grade means a clearer mismatch — but the books know it too, so higher accuracy here does not mean a betting edge.
All validated trends · out-of-sample (2020–2026)
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